ATCF Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California FWC Norfolk, Virginia The chart above will update when viewed until the storm expires. This chart will show in detail the location of Hurricane Joaquin as the solar storm reaches Earth. It appears the bulk of the SWE will arrive while the storm is still in the Caribbean. (see last posts on previous page) There are many DX'ers in the islands who depend on amateur radio. Visit: http://dxnews.com/
WSA-ENLIL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity 24 hr Summary... A CME was first observed from the WSW limb in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph imagery at 01/0724 UTC. Initial analysis of this event indicates it is likely off the Sun-Earth line and not expected to be geoeffective. Meanwhile analysis continues regarding the CME events from 30 Sep. Multiple model runs were submitted and at least a few of the returned products indicate a possible, partial Earth-directed event. Other model returns indicate a glancing blow and even near-miss events. Confidence factor amongst these results is not high, however, it seems probable that at least a glancing blow is likely and will be reflected in the geomagnetic activity forecast.
SDO AIA 304 at 10-2-15 21:14:19 UTC is indicating another large prominence has erupted on the solar surface. It appears to have been about 500,00o km in length and is close to the Sun-Earth line which could send plasma towards earth. Arrival time about 10-6 or 10-7 if any material was propagated. Just below and to the left (east) is Coronal Hole #10. This CH will be on the north/south and east/west centerline by 10-6-15 with effects reaching Earth by about 10-9-15. This region is possibly old CH #98. More information when imagery is available: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
SDO AIA 131 10-4-15 02:43:23 UTC Even though region 2423 is out of Earth view, it still is capable of producing an M1.0 flare which began a few minutes before this image from the SDO.
SWPC analysis to previous post #123. Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity 24 hr Summary... A 36 degree long filament was observed in GONG and SDO/AIA 304 imagery erupting in the NE quadrant. The NW to SW oriented filament was centered near N38E14 and appeared to lift off between about 02/1500-2200 UTC. LASCO C2 imagery observed a faint, slow-moving CME off the NNE limb, first visible at 02/2324 UTC. This CME is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the past 24 hours.
This chart updates when viewed to the latest available data. To view history: http://www.sweoc.org/GRAPE_Sunspot_History.html 2017 Eclipse Radio Propagation Experiment: http://www.sweoc.org/GRAPE.html Daily sunspot count has dropped to 18 this date (10/5/15 0230 UTC).
STEREO Ahead EUVI 171 10-5-15 18:22:18 UTC This STEREO A image is showing old regions 2422 and 2425 (circle) are still very active on the far side of the sun. In addition is a long string of small regions that extend across the sun just below the equator. The extreme right side region is currently rotating into Earth view today. This string of relatively small areas will rotate to the Earth side over the next 8 to 10 days. 2422 and 2425 could follow about 2 days later (10-19 or 10-20). SDO AIA 193 10-6-15 13:10:42 UTC This SDO image of Coronal Hole (CH) #10. The cross hairs are at the center point. The low level effects of CH#10 will reach Earth 10-7 through about 10-10 UT.
SDO HMIIC 10-7-15 14:15:00 UTC The square in the above image shows newly numbered region 2429. The circle is highlighting a new region about to rotate into view today and probably will be numbered 2430. Referring to the previous post, this would be the next in the series of emerging regions. A flare on the southeastern limb (lower right GOES 13 SXI 10-7-15 09:15:00 UTC) started at around 10-7-15 0730 UT. There were no defined sunspots in this region. In the latest SOHO LASCO C2 (10-7-15 14:30 UTC) and C3 images, it appears a CME was generated. This will be studied further during the day. It does not appear the bulk of this event is Earth directed at this hour based on the first images from the spacecraft received during this DSN period.
In the latest SWPC synoptic map, forecaster Patterson is showing us the distribution of 4 coronal holes (CH) on the earth side of the sun. For the past several hours it appears CH#10 has been the primary source of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) reaching Earth. CH#12 is primarily located north of the equatorial line but could still influence the CH HSS in the week ahead. Bottom line: More miss than hit HF. Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major (G2 - Moderate) storm levels on day one (08 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue. Day two (09 Oct), should see active to minor storm (G1 - Minor) levels early in the period before CH HSS begin to wane. The later part of 09 Oct and day three (10 Oct) should see a return to quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for isolated active levels due to substorming.
GOES 13 SXI PTHNA 10-10-15 01:15:00 UTC Soft X-Ray levels from the sun remain very low (dark areas). Today's solar data: SSN = 11, 10.7 cm Radio Flux = 81, Area = 30, GOES 15 Flux = A7.5. The low Radio Flux level (below 100) is typical of periods of time during solar minimum which can reach as low as the mid 60's (i.e. 65). The electron Flux at greater than 2Mev continues at elevated levels which contribute to poor propagation in the HF bands. It appears this will be the trend for a few more days as CH#12 moves westward. The bulk of this region is now on the Sun-Earth centerline which indicates an elevated effect on Earth by 10-12-15 UT. Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high to very high levels during the period, reaching a peak flux of 57,093 pfu at 09/1505 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at high levels with very high levels likely for the forecast period (10-12 Oct) due to coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10-11 Oct) with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions possible early on day one as CH HSS effects slowly diminish. By mid to late on day three (12 Sep) activity is expected to reach the G1 (Minor) storm levels as the Earth transitions into a northern positive polarity CH HSS.
Top Image SDO HMI Quick Look Continuum 10-10-15 09:15:00 This image shows (circle) the emergence of a new sunspot region (probably old region 2415 if my calendar is working) and region 2430 (square) which is the only numbered region today. This new area is about 20 degrees south on the eastern limb. Bottom Images (Left to Right) STEREO A EUVI 304 10-8-15 05:55:18 UTC STEREO A EUVI 171 10-8-15 05:57:18 UTC These two images from the far side of the sun show the newly emerging sunspot region. SOHO EIT 284 10-9-15 13:06:00 UTC This image shows the new region and the corona in the region. There could be an emerging CH close to this area which is about 30 to 40 degrees south of the equator. SOHO LASCO C2 (red) 10-10-15 04:10:00 UTC SOHO LASCO C3 (blue) 10-10-15 04:15:00 UTC The two LASCO images are showing the HSS from this area.
In these Extreme Ulta Violet Images from the STEREO Ahead spacecraft on the far side of the sun we can see two distinct areas of interest. The 195 image clearly shows the area referred to in the previous post with the following regions about to rotate into Earth view and the arrow shows the approximate flow of the HSS that we see in the LASCO images. The 171 image shows old region 2422 as it appears this date (see previous posts). We can clearly see the region has continued to split and still contain intense magnetic interactions. It is still just south of the equatorial line. If this region maintains this intensity it could create strong Earth storms as it rotates to the Earth-Sun centerline about 10-26-15. As it rotates into Earth view starting about 10-17 or 10-18 it may be numbered as two separate regions.
Left Images: SDO AIA 304 10-11-15 06:29:19, 06:43:55, 06:58:19 UTC Right Images: SOHO LASCO C2 10-10-15 23:12 and 10-11-15 07:00 UTC The SDO images show a flare that started around 06:11 and ended around 07:30 UTC this date. Other images show no sunspot regions in this eastern equatorial area. Following this event, the HSS described in the previous posts dissipated. The LASCO images above show a before and after comparison. This was a long period event. If we zoom in on the left image above we can see this event occurred almost on the eastern end of the equator at the very edge of the visible surface. Some material from the area to the south was blasted over a wide area. This will be studied later today as additional LASCO C3 images become available. There was an additional filament eruption in the north western quadrant shortly after this event at about 07:00 UT.
WSA ENLIL 10-12-15 12:22:00 UTC The latest SWPC WSA ENLIL model is not looking good for HF'ers but possibly great for aurora watchers. Looking back at previous post #122 the solar wind increased in time, magnitude, and direction of travel. The orange area in #122 is now on the Earth side and will reach Earth about 10-17 UT and last about 10 days until 10-27. Round pin wheel chart in looking at the Earth and sun from above (or below). Blue dot is STEREO B and red dot is STEREO A spacecraft on the far side of the sun. The chart on the right shows the Earth as if we were following from behind in orbit. Up is north (above) the planet. This model shows the blast of wind will cover Earth and pass primarily above (white arrow) Green dot is Earth and yellow dot is the sun. Use the link in #122 to monitor this event. This model is updated at various times.
Left Image: SDO AIA 171 10-13-15 12:26:23 UTC Right Image: SDO HMI Quick Look Continuum10-13-15 11:45:00 UTC A new region of interest is emerging a few (about 5) degrees south of the equatorial line on the east limb. This could be old region 2428. It should reach the Earth-Sun centerline about 10-19. STEREO A images suggest another region beyond this area. This region may interact with the HSS mentioned in the previous post.
