Round here, the majority of the serious RFI is caused by ADSL internet. The anticipated move towards fibre to the premises (FTTP) will greatly reduce that and I would expect that any remaining ADSL will be replaced by 5G which also causes far less RFI to the likes of us. I think it is almost inevitable that we will lose access to pretty much everything above 70cm and even that might come under pressure. 2m and lower is pretty safe - the limits of technology and physics make frequencies below 150MHz pretty unattractive to most commercial users - antennae are too big and available data rate too low. As far as the old standing of amateur radio is concerned, socio-political changes make it extremely unlikely that it could have been maintained of could be reversed. Modern politicians hate the idea of elitism - it is not possible to sell to a modern electorate. Despite your gloom, spectrum has been released to non-commercial users rather than removed over the last couple of decades. With no strong commercial pressure, the European spectrum managers have released spectrum in the UHF range to PMR446 licence free usage. The UK authorities have gradually lifted various restrictions on HF CB, permitting SSB, for example. With the bands below 30MHz effectively empty, it will be easier to convince modern politicians to increase licence-free, non-elitist access. For heavens sake don't go to any first-world politician proposing preferential treatment for "educated people" or that "trouble with "the law" or was considered "unreliable"" would block a licence application - you'll kill the hobby dead in the water! Martin (G8FXC)
Two parts to answer there, first the shortage of new blood, second the 'bunch of quite aged whiners'. I believe that there are other societal reasons for those findings, such as what is it that the students are interested in and how and who is actually motivating them. This goes for any of the sciences. Employers would say, 'The one sure thing is change. There is no such thing as a job for life and you have to expect to change to fit...'. So, we have to ask ourselves if that would make you want to specialise? For many I am sure they see troubled and difficult times more than they see an accepting and welcoming future and work society. Examples have been set, and now some wonder why it's hard to reverse that. Instead of so called authorities becoming sceptical of the field they probably need to take a good long long inwardly and start undoing some of the damage from within. I doubt that many can or will do that, without doing that you can't have refreshed version of "Yesteryear". Whinging and aged user base.... its kind of a by product of the first....
From what I have learned about the inner workings of modern-day spectrum regulators, their first-hand choice would be no radio amateurs at all, but as a distant second a small elite corps that causes them no troubles may have been accepted. Most people with political influence see us as "Weak-signal Talibans" that stand in the way of the deployment of solar-derived power and other energy-saving measures. I am frequently accused of wanting an BSc or MSc degree to be a requisite for an amateur licence, which is something I never have said. However, in the light of later developments, such a requirement seems more and more as a "good idea". Since I have had the opportunity to compare the two regimes, I very much preferred when radio amateurs primarily came from the educated classes and were considered as reliable, compared to the "spray-painted CB:ers" (the words of a now SK colleague) that we got after the standards were relaxed. 73/ Karl-Arne SM0AOM
This is what amateur radio will again be - geek fun. What it was originally. All will be Starlink from Elon Musk...
@G0KDT Mentions something important, the cause-effect relations in the progress or decline of amateur radio. Quite little is known about what has caused the lack of youngsters, and why amateurs mostly are seen as awkward complaining incompetent curmudgeons by the Authorities. From my vantage point, it appears that organised amateur radio, which to a very large extent is run by control-freaks, attempts to solve new problems by using old solutions. Being control-freaks, they tend to develop tunnel-vision which disregards lateral thinking and fresh approaches as "outside disturbances" which may cause deviations from the "party line". In an increasingly hostile environment, where spectrum regulators, EMC agencies, planning boards, land-lords and neighbours mostly see amateur radio as an annoying factor, it has become very hard to "sell" the concept. In Denmark, there is an internal joke about radio amateurs being "sure gamle mænd i ternede skjorter" (approx. translation "mean old men in checkered shirts"), often illustrated with the old curmudgeons from the "Muppet Show": It is probably only by changing the public perception by again have some aura of relevance and competence the hobby may have a chance to survive in recognisable forms. The addition of some social skills would not harm either... 73/ Karl-Arne SM0AOM
My sole desire is to catch Good A1A Practices and Ethics from last era of Radio Officers. But I cannot turn myself into a great radio-electronician out of nothing. Gonna left, maybe, only one Solar Cycle for doing so. Then, if lucky, another Solar Cycle to pass my morse code best knowledge on to other RAs. Just dreaming of a quiet place with antennas, and that our beloved Anatel will not interfere into HF*. Lots «State of the Hobby» and such surveys made, which I duly replied. Surely «Après moi, le déluge» applies here, hobby, on life-support today, will not be resurrected. That's it, and I was optimistic, being that it mainly depends on how frequently we are on the air, how much effort we show. *We might keep HF untouched a tad longer than, say, your 2m band. Oliver
In Ukraine, after the outbreak of the war with Russia in 2014, a lot of radio amateurs became volunteers or joined the army and helped greatly to establish communication and apply their technical knowledge, thereby increasing their status in society.
Yes, amateur radio obviously needs a new shooting war to become relevant again. There is no shortage of war-mongers around, but just do not forget to send your own children or grand-children, if you have any, to the front-lines. 73/ Karl-Arne SM0AOM
War times giving the hobby some justification? What if most of HF were confiscated for military purposes? I do count digital modes (non-OOK) as peanuts, except for the challenge of the ones writing lines of code. Then all connections being established, admit it is nothing else than a way of checking propagation limits. But what I'd like doing would be to save a Hellschreiber Maschine and put all mechanics into work. Oliver
As to war times, you all are aware Brazil is at war every day/night against gangs, drug lords and other mafias, everywhere, don't you? A war « Gente de Bem» here will not win. So much that when passing the exam, that little guy from Anatel showed us a modified HT and preached us «Thou Shall Not Use That» (or face excommunication etc...) That was ALL we were told, how much we are considerated in Brazil. Welcome! into the Glorious Hobby. Oliver
Those who start wars usually do not personally participate in them. But when the war came to me, no one asked me. As it turned out, the war is much closer than many people think. The main thing is to be ready for it. I took my children out of the war zone, but who knows how and when it all ends and for whom it will end. The military has been using the entire radio frequency resource for a long time, but few know this. It's just that their over-the-horizon radar technology or FHSS not everyone can identify. My friend, I just wish you never knew what a real war is, when shells arrive and parts of houses and people scatter tens of meters around ... When you can't get away from this because everything around is mined and you just will be shot at the nearest checkpoint ... But as a radio amateur, you have a better chance of survival, because the value of information in critical situations increases. And you have a receiver and knowledge of where and who to listen to ...
This is the very reason why wars in their modern form exist. Those that gain money and power from wars send people that cannot say 'no' to the front lines. It is far more convenient to let some faceless poor bugger that you never have seen or spoken to, to die in the trenches. I believe that singer-songwriter Malvina Reynolds put it quite succinctly in her 1960s song "A Short History of Warfare" "But when the wars got dirty, With cannon balls and stuff, With slagging thro the rice paddies and really playing rough, With ak ak and machine guns, grenades and all like that, The nobles gave the fighting to the proletariat. Of armour there was little, Of chain mail there was none, The dog-face met the bullets with his open flesh and bone, The big shots stay and run the wars, Get richer all the time, and the one who gets the glory, Posthumously but surely, Is the soldier of the line." This aside, it quite clear that WW2, and especially the Allied victory, made amateur radio in its currently recognisable forms possible. Without WW2, or with an Allied defeat, the landscape would look much different. Let us make a contrafactual thought experiment with WW2 not breaking out in 1939 in Europe and Japan does not attack Pearl Harbor in 1941. This narrative would rely on many assumptions; The economy of Germany does not implode, and a civil war or military coup does not break out Grossdeutschland expands and gains support from neighbours and vassal states The von Ribbentrop-Molotov non-aggression pact still holds Japan expands in the Far East The ITU still exists The FCC is still reasonably supportive of amateur radio Chamberlain survives his cancer and continues as Prime Minister of the UK, or is succeeded by Lord Halifax Major European actors such as the UK and France continue as at least nominal democracies In the same context, we also have to examine the potential state of amateur radio globally. It was only in the US and to some extent Canada where amateur radio was reasonably safe from attacks from coming spectrum demands. In most other countries amateur radio had "barely tolerated" status, and at the 1938 Cairo ITU conference several proposals for severely curtailing amateur privileges were on the table. Many dictatorships,and some democracies, were suspicious of letting radio amateurs actually using the airwaves, but also were somewhat supportive of radio experimentation. A few countries proposed amateur radio to be confined to "artificial antennas" or dummy loads, and the power limited. The UK "Artificial Aerial Licence" were the templates for these proposals. Let us now consider a new ITU Conference in, say, 1946 without a war in between. The composition of participants would on the surface look similar to 1938, but the fraction of dictatorships would have increased, and with that their weight in decisions. It is reasonable to expect that the broadcast propaganda war would have been intense, and that FM broadcast and VHF television would have been introduced on a wider scale in the industrialised world. Fixed HF links between the continents would still accommodate the majority of the international telephone and telegraph traffic. Shipping and commercial aviation will also demand larger shares of the spectrum. All this would fill the then available HF and lower VHF spectrum to the brim, especially considering that the radio state-of-the-art would not be as advanced. Now looking more closely at the participants in this ITU conference, perhaps in Berlin, or "Welthauptstadt Germania". Germany, as the leading power in continental "Deutsche Neuropa" will have a major influence of the agenda. She will be backed by other Fascist dictatorships and vassal states. Greater Germany, with annexed Czechoslovakia, Austria and possibly half of Poland Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, parts of Yugoslavia Italy and colonies Spain Portugal Japan with annexed parts of China and other Far East territories Other European countries friendly to Grossdeutschland in 1946 could include; Denmark, Norway, Sweden and most likely Finland Holland and Belgium The Baltic states Ireland Greece The attendance list from this ring-corned would have striking similarities to the list from the continuation of the Anti-Comintern pact in November 1941. On the other corner of the "boxing ring" the English-speaking countries would line up; United States with possessions British Empire with colonies and possessions Australia and New Zealand South Africa (maybe) A few Central and Latin American countries that could be considered as US vassal states or highly influenced France with colonies (maybe) It is quite likely that the US would have taken a very regional and isolationist stance at a 1946 ITU conference, perhaps even more so if Roosevelt had been defeated in the 1940 election. Then the position of the USSR has to be considered. A tense armed neutrality between the USSR and Grossdeutschland has to be assumed. The USSR may support one side or the other, or maybe not show up at all. There was some Party support for amateur radio, but if all bands were clogged up with propaganda broadcasts, how could amateur radio be accommodated? Perhaps only on a purely national level. The outcomes? Likely a massive re-write of the 1938 Cairo Regulations, with spectrum allocations strongly favouring broadcast, fixed and commercial mobile allocations all the way up to perhaps 300 MHz. The US might have reserved its position on issues that were local to Region 2, and continued allowing amateur radio in a reduced spectrum space nationally or regionally. In Europe, support for amateur radio could be foreseen to be weak. Perhaps the UK and France might have spoken up in support, depending on how much they felt safe to annoy the Germans. "Deutsche Neuropa" might have permitted amateur radio using low power in very limited spectrum slices, subject to Gleichschaltung and in the regimes of the Hitlerjugend or Kraft durch Freude organisations or their national equivalents. In Asia and Oceania, amateur radio in the Japanese controlled territories would likely have been curtailed to the German levels, if allowed at all. Australia, New Zealand and parts of Latin America may have permitted amateur radio on the same regional or national basis as the US. To sum up, 1946 international amateur radio would look very different, if permitted at all on an international scale. The bands would have been much narrower and fewer, and the allowed power levels much lower. 73/ Karl-Arne SM0AOM
Aside from my typo, which should have said 'take long look inwardly' I feel my answer is the same. More importantly I think my answer was generic to all countries or states. It is also far wider than amateur radio extending into many branches of science and society. All we can do is do our best to think long term and to help others where we have the skills and can do it.
As to the Colonies, its their outcome that would have been drastically different. Indochine, Afrika... how would have today's World been shaped into? Surely, radio everywhere there! RFI would still mean Radio-France International. And I think France could have easily leaned towards Germania if too much pressure had been applied on the red side by its Soviets lovers. So, maybe, a Civil War in France could start WWII, albeit differently. Oliver
