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Solar Alert - wind speeds of 800 km/s expected

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Dec 8, 2020.

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  1. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    2nd storm has arrived, but a lot quieter than initially predicted.


    Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
    Serial Number: 2180
    Issue Time: 2020 Dec 10 0300 UTC

    ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
    Threshold Reached: 2020 Dec 10 0259 UTC
    Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

    Active Warning: Yes

    NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
    Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

    but maybe not...on the NOAA site there is now a G3 alert again, the speed has increased to 575 km/s and density is greater than 12 particles!
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2020
  2. W1PJE

    W1PJE Ham Member QRZ Page

    CME arrived at the L1 Lagrange point (out in front of Earth on the Sun line) at 0130 UTC today with a strong southward Bz in the solar wind (more geoeffective than a northward Bz). Time from the L1 point projecting forward to impacts on the magnetic field is typically 45 to 60 minutes, so I'd guess effects will begin at 0230 UTC today. Kp is already 4 for 00 - 03 UTC today, which agrees with increase in magnetic activity, but the auroral boundaries have not expanded yet. This means a potential for significant nighttime ionospheric structuring that, if it occurred, can disrupt transcontinental links. Relative strength of this disturbance will need to wait for more data as the hours go on.

    Tomorrow, the ionosphere could exhibit a positive phase response = increased electron density in the noontime / afternoon sector, or negative phase response = reduced electron density in daytime. These two limits are driven by two different physical pathways (change in neutral composition = increasing loss and decreased density; electrodynamic effects = the ionosphere moves upwards where its decay slows so electron density overall increases). They will of course have different HF propagation consequences: higher electron density allows higher frequency bands to open compared to quiet conditions, while lower electron density will close these bands down compared to quiet conditions.

    If possible, I suggest you get out the radio tomorrow daytime and make some QSOs (or try to do so) on 17 / 15 / 12 / 10 meters. See what happens.
     
    VE7DXW likes this.
  3. W9BRD

    W9BRD Ham Member QRZ Page

    Yes. For a quick look, just visit https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ and scroll down to the middle of the page. Among the indicators there are the planetary K index (lower right corner; thing to keep in mind for that is that each bar represents 3 hours, so what was yellow for the past 3 h could be higher, same, or lower now) and the auroral-oval prediction. (The unfortunate counterintuitive aspect of the auroral prediction graphic is that the color shown for the oval equates to probability of occurrence and not the color of the oval.)

    In such times, good real-time indicator is to tune the lower bands and listen for signals that should sound normal to sound watery; also, go outside and look north, assuming your sky is dark enough for the check to matter.

    Another poster alluded to the March 1989 storm(s). That was a life-changing event for me. I was doing dishes with my Sony ICF-2001 beside me on the countertop, listening to the BBC's Antigua relay at 6175 kHz. Suddenly, its powerhouse signal vanished. "Huh," I thought. "Something's loose." Then the signal came back, full "S9 + 60" strength, as that single-hop signal could be in our NAm evenings. Then after a few more seconds, the signal vanished again. Then I ran outside and looked up.

    The Connecticut night sky was full of aurora, from horizon to horizon, in all directions. Astounding.

    That same storm brought down the Hydro Quebec grid in something like 90 seconds.
     
    WL7PM and W5EBB like this.
  4. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    • New NOAA Alert

      Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
      Serial Number: 226
      Issue Time: 2020 Dec 10 0447 UTC

      SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
      Observed: 2020 Dec 10 0211 UTC
      Deviation: 30 nT
      Station: BOU

      NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
      www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
     
  5. KC8UD

    KC8UD Ham Member QRZ Page

    As I'm writing this now at 14:13 UTC or 7:13 MST I'm trying to participate in a 75 meter network and we can hardly hear each other where normally there is never a problem. This storm is quite a whammy for 75 meters.
     
    VE4LS and VE7DXW like this.
  6. AE7XG

    AE7XG Ham Member QRZ Page

    HHMMMMMM. lol
     
  7. N5VAF

    N5VAF Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    CME order.jpg hazmat.jpg toilet paper.jpg
     
    WQ4G likes this.
  8. W1PJE

    W1PJE Ham Member QRZ Page

    As of 1500 UTC today, the Z component of the IMF is flipping back and forth but it's not that strong, and the SW dynamic pressure has ramped down. Almost no global storm response. Kp is back to quiet conditions as of 06-09 UTC. So in all, it was quite a weak CME from the ionospheric storm perspective.

    However, that is not to say that there is no HF change! Indeed, reports above by KC8UD could be interpreted that a negative phase storm is in play - reduced electron density. Yet the mid-latitude ionograms (e.g. Millstone Hill) show a perhaps 20-25% MORE F region density today compared to yesterday, indicating a positive phase response. So I'd say that if 75 meter links are disrupted, that's a good indication of a primary cause in extra electron density structure - not smooth, but ordered with high and low spots - that would interrupt rays on those 75 meter paths, rather than reduced density.

    If another impulse comes along later today, which is still in the NOAA SWPC forecast, this will all change again.

    Renewed encouragement: get on the air, and report back like KC8UD!
     
  9. W4WAL

    W4WAL Ham Member QRZ Page

    Should I put on my seat belt?
     
  10. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hi Everybody;

    The second storm came in at 21:15 UTC and all communications ceased, only the 40m and 20 m band was available to 00:00 UTC. 80 m communications resumed after 06:00 UTC. The strong solar wind can be seen at the elevated 15 m noise level and the 10 m noise level from 01:00 UTC to 06:15 UTC.

    The bands are back but NOAA is still predicting a G3 storm for today....!

    A


    upload_2020-12-10_16-34-2.png
     
  11. K2NED

    K2NED Ham Member QRZ Page

    6 pages of comments to a non-event !!??
     
    AA4MB likes this.
  12. W1PJE

    W1PJE Ham Member QRZ Page

    PSKReporter maps disagree. 80 meter communications continued according to FT8 records unabated throughout this period. The band was not closed completely.
     
  13. KQ9I

    KQ9I Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Hardly a "non-event". There's opportunity for hams to learn here: this was forecasted as a fairly significant geomagnetic storm, yet it turned out not to be. Lesson: not all space weather forecasts are correct (kinda like my local news channel). Also, solar physics is hard. Also, a storm that was expected to cause X in fact seems to have caused Y. I find this terribly interesting. I liked the info other's have posted about their observations. There's some HF/Solar weather effect status sites I didn't know about and now I do.
     
    VE7DXW and W1PJE like this.
  14. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

  15. W1YW

    W1YW Ham Member QRZ Page

    But there was an old WELL in Boston that appeared at that time! Causal!

    ;-)

    [​IMG]
     

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