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Interesting connection between solar activity, propagation and earthquakes

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Oct 9, 2019.

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  1. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hi Bob;

    I would appreciate you from posting to my threads more than once... we heard you. Please let other people form their own opinion!
    Thank you;

    Alex -VE7DXW
     
  2. KK4NSF

    KK4NSF Ham Member QRZ Page

    you must be looking at a different list than I am. The closest names to SciRes Literature on this list are:

    and to "Nature":
    None of these appear to be the ones who published the article.

    As far as Google Rankings go.... who cares? Google is a for-profit company, that is well known for "Ranking For Pay".

    Now to be precise, I don't know if the article is right, wrong, brilliant or stupid.... but given the apparent offense you've taken with it, it looks to me like your problem is not with the presented data but possibly with either the presenter, or the journal.
     
  3. W7UUU

    W7UUU Director, QRZ Forums Lifetime Member 133 QRZ HQ Staff Life Member QRZ Page

    With all due respect, Alex, you don't get to "own threads". This is a public thread on QRZ. Bob and everyone else, just like you, has a right to express opinions, make comments, offer retorts and opposing views, agree with or disagree with any statements made by you or by others, all as long as it meets all terms of the Code of Conduct and Terms of Service of QRZ. And so far, every comment is well within the expected CoC rules.

    Dave
    W7UUU
    Moderator
     
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  4. W0KDT

    W0KDT Ham Member QRZ Page

    How is the correlation with the price of salt in Madagascar? Coal shipments from Australia? Inuit birth rate? Signs of the Zodiac?

    Apparent correlations are a dime a dozen. Wake me when there is a proven mechanism that starts to support causality.
     
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  5. W7UUU

    W7UUU Director, QRZ Forums Lifetime Member 133 QRZ HQ Staff Life Member QRZ Page

    One more try to keep it civil and on track...

    Moderator
     
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  6. K8UA

    K8UA Ham Member QRZ Page

    Not trying to support any one side of the discussion - but as an active researcher myself, I would not trust anything that is published in a sketchy journal like this. It has no credibility in the scientific world at all - regardless of whether it is officially recognized as "predatory" or not. (If not - it's only a matter of time till it will be). The broad scope of the journal is the first (but only one of the most obvious) sign of its below-reasonable credibility, as they fail to attract enough quality original research in any one more specific subject area. (Not to be confused with such journals as Science and Nature).
     
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  7. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    They have a list of publishers too, and it looks like I copied the wrong publisher initially, my apologies.

    The correct publisher of Natural Science is Scientific Research Publishing (SCIRP), which is ALSO on the list of predatory publishers. Here's an excerpt from the list (bolding is mine)
    https://predatoryjournals.com/publishers/#S

    No, I have not "taken offense". But I do spend some time investigating pseudoscience claims that I find interesting for one reason or another. I'm no stranger to researching and reading technical journals so it doesn't take me very long to look up and read the papers, if readily available.

    There is so much pseudoscience, poor research, and fake research (for commercial or political purposes) on the internet these days that I feel some obligation to try to point it out when I encounter it. It wouldn't be right to stand by and be silent; that is tantamount to acceptance in my book.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019
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  8. KK4NSF

    KK4NSF Ham Member QRZ Page

    understood.. thanks for the clarification. I'll look at the links

    My point was / is not if the paper is good or bad. (I really don't know one way or the other. ) Rather, that as we debate various topics we as a group would do better to avoid confrontational / harsh language which is often read by others as mean-spirited. That tends to limit the conversation, and often pushes people away from a rational truth, toward an emotional response..... which as we know can often be quite the opposite from the truth.

    As far as pseudo-science goes, we certainly have far too much of it nowadays. In fact, it is widely misused by the media to sway public opinion in very detremental ways. So we are in agreement on that point.

    Dave
    KK4NSF
     
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  9. K8JHR

    K8JHR Ham Member QRZ Page

    Huh. Meh.

    I side with N0TZU because there is no real evidence the phenomena under consideration are CAUSALLY RELATED. This is a basic concept and underlies the logic behind the "post hoc, ergo property hoc" type of fallacy; i.e., the fact different phenomena appear to occur at the same time, and, perhaps, at the same frequency, more or less, does not PROVE or substantiate either is caused by the other. In court, the proponent often must prove both correlation and causation - i.e., correlation often merely suggests EVENT A actually CAUSED EFFECT A - it does not necessarily prove the event caused the effect - and the question remains: "Coincidence?" And the answer is, "perhaps, but maybe not."

    Bottom line - correlation does not always constitute proof of actual causation - even if there was high correlation - and here there is neither.

    Just MY take. K8JHR
     
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  10. K8UA

    K8UA Ham Member QRZ Page

    All you need to know about correlations (but makes sense, no? ;))

    spurious-correlations.jpeg
     
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  11. K8UA

    K8UA Ham Member QRZ Page

    All in all - there is no connection unless the mechanism is shown and reasonably proven. You cannot claim that there is a causal relationship based solely on a correlation - no matter how excellent it is. Period.
     
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  12. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    And the first step in the chain is to actually calculate the correlation, not simply eyeball the data (with benefit of hindsight)!
     
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  13. WN1MB

    WN1MB Ham Member QRZ Page

    Fear monger much?
     
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  14. KA0HCP

    KA0HCP XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    If you will play by your own rules, stop posting your nonsense topic. You have posted once. Please go away! Thanks. :)

    [edited for clarity]
     
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  15. WQ2H

    WQ2H QRZ Lifetime Member #214 Platinum Subscriber Life Member QRZ Page

    Wow, do you mean "evidence-based science" and "stochastic independence" actually have value?

    As Christiaan Huygens would have said: ".....go figure."

    :)


     

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