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Interesting connection between solar activity, propagation and earthquakes

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Oct 9, 2019.

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  1. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hi Everybody;


    We just came across a very interesting correlation between solar activity and earthquakes here on earth and found a paper on it too. As the sun moves though the solar minimum the RF-Seismograph with the help of USGS have been detecting fewer and smaller earthquakes. Since the USGS uses mechanical means to detect and records quakes, the propagation (or the lack thereof) cannot be a factor. The RF-Seismograph is still detecting the quakes at a success rate of 70% by looking at the USGS database and investigating the changes that these – even smaller quakes at the scale between M4.5 and M5.9 - create in the ionosphere. What is really amazing is, that the RF background noise is still very easily disturbed by even these small quakes and poor propagation conditions.



    The RF-Seismograph is putting out a daily report now comparing earthquakes with USGS monitored earthquakes with the intensity level of M4.5 to M5.9. All these reports are available on https://groups.io/g/MDSRadio , the RF-Seismograph IO group. To receive a daily report please sign up for the MDSRadio group.

    Here is a sample: The graph below is our new tool that we have developed to easily match ionic disturbances with the USGS earthquake catalog. It will be released shortly. The non labeled peaks are minute quakes at the level below M4.5.
    [​IMG]

    The paper Influences of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes can be downloaded from here:

    http://www3.telus.net/public/bc237/MDSR/Influences_of_Solar_Cycles_on_Earthquake.pdf


    All the best and 73. Your comments are welcome.

    Alex - VE7DXW
     
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  2. G3SEA

    G3SEA Ham Member QRZ Page

    That IS Interesting ! :cool:

    G3SEA/KH6
     
    VE7DXW likes this.
  3. TA1MEL

    TA1MEL QRZ Member

    Interesting topic, thanks...
    73
     
    VE7DXW likes this.
  4. AF4RK

    AF4RK Ham Member QRZ Page

    Serious research. This is the causal mechanism proposed by the paper
    There was a clear decrease in earthquakes for the two grand solar minima examined and an increase in the number of earthquakes for the last half of the 20th cen-tury. This increase in solar events, called the Modern Maxima, coincided with the intensification of earth-quake events in several plates. More data is needed re-garding the variations of disturbances in the ionosphere caused by these variations (solar storms) in the solar cycles and the variation concerning the dynamic pres-sure. Dynamic pressure (Dp) affects the flux transfer from the dayside to night side, and the depending of the tectonic ground is important. Dynamic pressure is a function of speed and density of the solar wind. Satel-lites detect electromagnetic disturbances in the iono-sphere and in regions such as the South Atlantic anomaly. It is possible that these disturbances affect the ground under that region.

    Solar wind speed which causes more dynamic pres-sure on Earth’s magnetosphere is the physical mecha-nism which increases the number of earthquakes.

    AF4RK
     
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  5. AA7VA

    AA7VA XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Fascinating!
    This recalls to my mind the causal observance that solar activity is directly related to the various planets alignments causing tidal effects in the solar outer shells and thereby solar activity. This also parallels the idea that earthquakes are also partially affected by tidal effects on this planet, primarily by our own moon, but to a lesser degree by the near (read as gravitational 'heavy' to us) planets in conjunction with the suns position in our somewhat eccentric orbit. They all seem to be correlated to a degree that makes this theory reasonable. Fascinating indeed.
    Thank you for posting this Alex!
     
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  6. KK4NSF

    KK4NSF Ham Member QRZ Page

    that IS fascinating! Thanks for posting it.

    On a similar note, the National Solar Observatory noticed a correlation between the Observed Solar Activity, and Surface Temperatures on Earth. The two show a strong correlation even on new charts up until 1980 or so when they diverge. Oddly, the current NASA methodology is to use adjusted data rather than raw data going back to the 1980's..... which makes comparing new temp data to old data rather problematic. However, the NSO does have the data available for study if anyone wants to look at it: https://www.nso.edu/data/historical-archive/

    It also looks odd that the Temps c1950 precede the increased solar activity.... with ~10 year lag. It would seem to me that the Solar Radiation would increase first... but not being a statistician or solar scientist, I can't say why the graph looks like it does.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    Again? You keep putting out this debunked theory, and showing your data with not even a cursory statistical analysis to back up your observations.

    The paper you cite has a lot of problems, even to the casual technical reader like me. Just for starters, their Figure 3 shows a correlation coefficient of only 0.319!! This is not even a good correlation, let alone evidence of causation. No wonder it wasn't published in a reputable journal.

    SciRes Literature (the publisher of the paper above in 2011) is on the list of predatory journals kept here: https://predatoryjournals.com/journals/ Just like "news" outlets, not all paper publishers are reputable (and some are downright fraudulent and meant to sway public opinion.)

    Here's what the USGS says about the topic in 2018:

    "...the USGS Geomagnetism Program has investigated published claims that geomagnetic and ionospheric signals associated with the earthquake process were measured prior to earthquake occurrence. So far, we have concluded that reported precursory signals are either bad data or the reported signals are part of normal global magnetic field variation that is unrelated to earthquakes."​


    And here is a list of papers and abstracts in VERY reputable geophysical papers to back up the statement.

    https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazard...ce_center_objects=3#qt-science_center_objects
     
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  8. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hi Bob and Everyone;

    Thanks for posting your objections... The USGS does a lot of very good work! It is a very powerful organization with a lot of old and outdated methodology too. They are not interested in other more efficient technology to take over their jobs... they are well supported by and enabling the powerful oil and gas companies to destroy our planet. They want keep the status quo and the fear of earthquakes just the way it is. It secures their funding in future endeavors!

    We have more important things to discuss here. It would be appreciated if you stick to the topic! We are not talking about precursors of earthquakes, we are talking about the effect of earthquakes on the ionosphere and the fact that there might be another long period of no sunspots, which would also mean reduced earthquakes.

    Thank you for your cooperation!

    All the best;

    Alex
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019
  9. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    Oh my.

    Despite being advised to do so by me and others many times here on these forums, you don't perform even a simple statistical analysis of your data, nor read the reputable research. Instead you now cast aspersions on those who disagree with you as being outdated, or being paid off by someone, or just biased because of their job. That's a classic argument of a con man. (I don't believe you are conning anyone for profit, rather I believe you are misguided).

    For the record I have no interest or relationship to the oil and gas industry, nor am I associated in any way with the USGS, or anything related to earthquakes. However, I strongly dislike pseudoscience and call it out when I see it.
     
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  10. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hi Bob;

    Your post does not reflect anything I posted... where do you get the:

    Are you in the pay of the oil and gas companies? Are you a registered lobbyist? If not, you need to get registered!


    I believe you are the con man and you are putting words into my mouth...
     
  11. KK4NSF

    KK4NSF Ham Member QRZ Page

    comparing the paper, which was published in Natural Science and your posted list of "predatory journals".... I don't see your point. Natural Science is a well respected, peer reviewed journal and certainly not on your list.

    Now to be honest, I enjoy a good debate about scientific matters.... and do understand your points, but your trying to assert that "no wonder it wasn't published in a reputable journal" is off base.

    Yes the USGS does reputable science, but then again so do many other scientific organizations, and often they reach differing conclusions. Calling research published in a reputable jounal "pseudoscience" begins to go from a debate over the science towards a rhetorical attempt to shout down those who you disagree with.
     
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  12. K0RGR

    K0RGR Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Well, I was not aware that there exists an 'RF Seismograph'. Some of you may recall that I have a peculiar interest in RF affects relating to earthquakes. My father observed some very strange radio effects the night before a major quake in Southern California, and shared it with me and my brother. Since I've brought this up many years ago, I received many anecdotal tales relating to the same phenomenon. In at least three instances, my father heard this, prior to very large quakes - which is why he had a good idea of what he was hearing.

    Indeed, it has been recorded by many professional observers. NASA detected ripples in the ionosphere over a major quake zone hours before the actual quake. LF and VLF effects have been reported before and during major seismic events. The 'echo' effect that I heard was recorded on WWV prior to a quake in Hawaii by a university team. These results have been studied by many different academics, including one at Cal Poly whose grad student contacted me for all the information I had. Russian scientists have a formal conjecture, which is that the effects are caused by gravity waves causing the ripples in the ionosphere, which in turn creates rapid Doppler shifting of HF and other radio signals.

    So, I am encouraged that an RF Seismograph exists. I hope it provides evidence of earthquake precursors. The only time I've observed this was prior to a major quake, and that seems to be consistent with what others report. I joined the group for this.
     
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  13. W4HM

    W4HM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    The first time you posted this subject I told you politely that it was nonsense. I've lost track of the number of times you have posted it since and it's still nonsense. No earthquake precursor can be identified by alleged changes in the ionosphere. Also solar wind pressure does not cause earthquakes.
     
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  14. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    As to the quality of Natural Science: The publisher, SciRes Literature, is on the list of predatory journals which is what I referenced. Perhaps it doesn't deserve that. But, as a additional data points, consider:

    The impact rating of Natural Science is less than one according to the Research Gate Journal Impact, which puts it at the bottom of rankings. Natural Science is not even listed on the Scimago Journal & Country Rank website.

    I also can't find it on the Google Scholar h5-index top rankings, even though SciRes says that it was there a couple of years ago. (BTW, Google Scholar h5 rankings have been shown to be subject to manipulation by fake citations, not unlike fake page rankings on Google search itself. Maybe they fixed it, I don't know).

    And, looking at the scope of articles accepted by Natural Science it's hard to find a field that they won't publish. In other words a generalist journal, hardly a specialized journal for geophysics, and I expect they can't do a good peer review on all those fields. It ain't Nature.

    If you have ranking information on Natural Science to the contrary (and not just from the SciRes website), please share it.

    Now, I am not trying to "shut down" anyone. VD7DXW is free to write whatever he wants and post it on QRZ subject to the site TOS. While I believe VD7DXW may be misguided and doesn't apply appropriate analysis to his data, I don't ascribe any nefarious intent to him. On the other hand, VD7DXW accuses me of being a con man and working for the oil industry in order to destroy the planet. I'm not sure how that would relate to the ionosphere and earthquakes even if true, which it isn't...

    Finally, I stand by my opinion of the paper in Natural Science which VD7DXW cited above. I've already pointed out one glaring problem in a previous post, here's another: The authors claim a correlation of earthquakes with solar activity going back to the Maunder Minimum. I think it's rather clear that world wide reporting of earthquakes going back prior to the age of good seismographs is unreliable. Furthermore, the authors didn't do a statistical analysis on that data, not even a simple regression analysis.
     
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  15. W4HM

    W4HM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Total nonsense. It sounds like a conspiracy theory.
     
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