Weather & Sunspot Cycle 24. Heralding a New Maunder Minimum & Ice-Age?

Talking from memory (Saturday morning, no time to dig) the Milankovich curve peaked in the early 20th century and should be trending slightly downwards from then for a couple of hundred years. I will check later.

73

Brian G8ADD

 

Sun spot credits

Where can I purchase sunspot credits ?

 

Wow, that is wonderful! I will get about the business of reading it - hoping to understand enough to apply it to Amateur Radio - much of the science is over my head.

I have read a great deal about NVIS in the past but the old adage "use it or lose it" applies, I have forgotten much of it and appreciate your well-written paper.

Thanks again & 73, doc KD4E

 

They only pedal sunspot credits for the next cycle on the "black" market.

(Sorry, couldn't resist the double pun.)

 

Bank of Sun Prairie?
The major Banks are being given the power to manage your carbon (sunspot- hi) credits. My point, since the Carbon Credit concept in effect boils down to a kind of Tax, by resembling a fuel taxation system, why are the Banks being put in charge of it?
http://www.rbs.co.uk/personal/carbon/calculators/carboncalc.ashx

"How will we use the money you spend to offset your CO2? Here's a small sample of the types of projects your money could help to support."
http://www.rbs.co.uk/personal/carbon/options/projects.ashx

Which institution normally manages taxation? Government, not the Central Banks. Hence, the fiscal equivalent value of these 'Carbon-Credits' is going directly into the coffers of the Banks. This as far as I know is something completely new, highly suspicious but was apparently promised as part the Rothschild Banking Empire's growing sphere of influence.

'David Mayer de Rothschild is the youngest child (born 1978) of Sir Evelyn de Rothschild, of the British wing of the Rothschild banking family.
Rothschild's recent book, 77 Essential Skills to Stop Climate Change calls for ordinary people to limit outward behavior and even work at home and was used as part of the PR blitz to accompany the Live Earth project.'

 

Get 'em while they're hot!

Friend, I can almost help you. I sell RF credits. $10.00 gets you 10 KW years of guilt free on-air indulgence. And, there's a green benefit besides. Just as Al Gore spends his carbon offset proceeds on planting trees, I spend my RF credit proceeds on planting my antenna farm.

See? It's a win-win!

 

Finally someone sees it

Im glad that someone finally realized that global warming is a result of the evil radio operators who fill the atmosphere with all that energy at radio frequency . Has anyone else notice that global warming was not as severe prior to all the interest in very high frequency modes and has gotten really bad since all those guys started experimenting with microwaves? So it really boils down to the need to stop the evil hams from transmitting and we also need to be sure that they all become vegan to minimize their carbon footprint.

 

Chilling News: “Sunspots May Vanish by 2015”

Predicting 1000 wx station's data? That would be like testing God wouldn't it? But anyway the lads at The National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ have been observing the continuum brightness of over 1000 sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005 and they are willing to have a punt and suggest / confirm the supposition first proposed at this thread's outset!

By William Livingston and Matthew Penn, National Solar Observatory, Tucson, AZ — Tuesday, August 26, 2008.

"We have observed spectroscopic changes in temperature sensitive molecular lines, in the magnetic splitting of an Fe I line, and in the continuum brightness of over 1000 sunspot umbrae from 1990-2005. All three measurements show consistent trends in which the darkest parts of the sunspot umbra have become warmer (45K per year) and their magnetic field strengths have decreased (77 Gauss per year), independently of the normal 11-year sunspot cycle.
A linear extrapolation of these trends suggests that few sunspots will be visible after 2015."
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/sunspots_may_vanish_by_2015/

But yes, we are only at the minimum of cycle 23 right now and I guess for the empiric pragmatist, only time will tell. Otherwise just look at the wx. Down to human activity? Well if the lack of love & due respect for other humans could be quantified as a cause of overcast skies, sure.

"I hear the train a'comin,
It's rolling round the bend,
And I ain't seen the Sunshine,
Since God knows when."

Johnny Cash.

 

NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun.

NASA To Discuss Conditions On And Surrounding The Sun.
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/HQ_M08176_Ulysses_teleconference.html

WASHINGTON -- NASA will hold a media teleconference Tuesday, Sept. 23, at 12:30 p.m. EDT, to discuss data from the joint NASA and European Space Agency Ulysses mission that reveals the sun's solar wind is at a 50-year low. The sun's current state could result in changing conditions in the solar system.

SOHO MDI Continuum Latest Image
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/mdi_igr/512/

New Cycle 24 Sunspot and SSN wavelet analysis
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/09/22/new-cycle-24-sunspot

 

Some of Latest on Sunspot Cycle 24 and Maunder Minimum

NASA: Are Sunspots Disappearing?

<SMALL class=date>3 Sept, 2009</SMALL>
From NASA News: Are Sunspots Disappearing?
September 3, 2009: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing?
“Personally, I’m betting that sunspots are coming back,” says researcher Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. But, he allows, “there is some evidence that they won’t.”
Penn’s colleague Bill Livingston of the NSO has been measuring the magnetic fields of sunspots for the past 17 years, and he has found a remarkable trend. Sunspot magnetism is on the decline:

​

Above: Sunspot magnetic fields measured by Livingston and Penn from 1992 – Feb. 2009 using an infrared Zeeman splitting technique. [more]
“Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year,” says Penn. “If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015.”
This disappearing act is possible because sunspots are made of magnetism. The “firmament” of a sunspot is not matter but rather a strong magnetic field that appears dark because it blocks the upflow of heat from the sun’s interior. If Earth lost its magnetic field, the solid planet would remain intact, but if a sunspot loses its magnetism, it ceases to exist.
“According to our measurements, sunspots seem to form only if the magnetic field is stronger than about 1500 gauss,” says Livingston. “If the current trend continues, we’ll hit that threshold in the near future, and solar magnetic fields would become too weak to form sunspots.”"This work has caused a sensation in the field of solar physics,” comments NASA sunspot expert David Hathaway, who is not directly involved in the research. “It’s controversial stuff.”
The controversy is not about the data. “We know Livingston and Penn are excellent observers,” says Hathaway. “The trend that they have discovered appears to be real.” The part colleagues have trouble believing is the extrapolation. Hathaway notes that most of their data were taken after the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 (2000-2002) when sunspot activity naturally began to decline. “The drop in magnetic fields could be a normal aspect of the solar cycle and not a sign that sunspots are permanently vanishing.”
Penn himself wonders about these points. “Our technique is relatively new and the data stretches back in time only 17 years. We could be observing a temporary downturn that will reverse itself.”
The technique they’re using was pioneered by Livingston at the NASA-supported McMath-Pierce solar telescope near Tucson. He looks at a spectral line emitted by iron atoms in the sun’s atmosphere. Sunspot magnetic fields cause the line to split in two—an effect called “Zeeman splitting” after Dutch physicist Pieter Zeeman who discovered the phenomenon in the 19th century. The size of the split reveals the intensity of the magnetism.
Right: Zeeman splitting of spectral lines from a strongly-magnetized sunspot. [more]
Astronomers have been measuring sunspot magnetic fields in this general way for nearly a century, but Livingston added a twist. While most researchers measure the splitting of spectral lines in the visible part of the sun’s spectrum, Livingston decided to try an infra-red spectral line. Infrared lines are much more sensitive to the Zeeman effect and provide more accurate answers. Also, he dedicated himself to measuring a large number of sunspots—more than 900 between 1998 and 2005 alone. The combination of accuracy and numbers revealed the downturn.
If sunspots do go away, it wouldn’t be the first time. In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotlessness known as the Maunder Minimum that still baffles scientists. The sunspot drought began in 1645 and lasted until 1715; during that time, some of the best astronomers in history (e.g., Cassini) monitored the sun and failed to count more than a few dozen sunspots per year, compared to the usual thousands.
“Whether [the current downturn] is an omen of long-term sunspot decline, analogous to the Maunder Minimum, remains to be seen,” Livingston and Penn caution in a recent issue of EOS. “Other indications of solar activity suggest that sunspots must return in earnest within the next year.”
Whatever happens, notes Hathaway, “the sun is behaving in an interesting way and I believe we’re about to learn something new.”

3 Sept, 2009
h/t to Michael Ronayne
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/03/nasa-are-sunspots-disappearing/
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Looking Healthier - 'I guess'.



Looking better today, 23 September 2009

 

ClimateGate. — When the Levée Breaks ...

Bringing to the Fore that Solar Activity and our Beloved Sunspot Cycle plays far more of a role in so-called 'Climate-Change' than any of the alleged scientific evidence for AGW/CC (man made global warming), has been worth it, Yes!?

Since the ClimateGate scandal was revealed by the release of some 64Mb of internal emails from the Climate Research Unit @ University of East Anglia, UK — well briefly, the Levées have broken.



http://www.anelegantchaos.org/cru/
Search the email list for keywords, like 'trick', or phrases like, "Hide The Decline", "Our Over-Bold Skeptics" or "Our Supporters in High Places", the later two originating from Michael Mann, author of the now totally debunked 'hockey-stick', valuable component of Gores' 'inconvenient Truth' model for disinfo.

Original Post:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2009/11/hacked-hadley-cru-foi2009-files.html
I chose the Warwick Hughes Server for downloading the entire 64.4Mb .zip, but all probably OK.

Going beyond the Blatant Political Controversy that some IPCC members and Climate Scientists claim is just cause to Completely stop the current IPCC agenda and start again from scratch.

One of the leaked UEA CRC emails seems to show that Climate Scientists have been including solar data contributions based on a 400 year history of Solar Wind activity & Barrylium-10 Measurements, but do not support it's alleged validity:

"Be10 refers to the Beryllium 10 measurements of Bard et al but scaled by me to the Lean et al changes over the last 400 years." — 1137686657.txt
However Sceptical Climate Scientists are quick to show how unreliable Be-10 based data is.
"The use of 10Be and 14C proxies is fraught with pitfalls. The production rate may be set by solar activity [the current paradigm says the Heliomagnetic Field. HMF], but the deposition rate in the ice and wood depends on terrestrial factors, climate, geomagnetic field, and volcanic eruptions [as 10Be attaches to aerosols]. Beer and McCracken have in two recent papers [see references in links below] attempted to reconstruct the ‘equivalent’ Climax Neutron Monitor count from the 10Be data and from that the driving HMF."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/17/beryllium-10-and-climate/

 

Could this Cold Crunch develop into a Maunder Minimum? GM experiences Coldest Ever.

NOAA's Daily Geomagnetic Data is certainly at a minimum, a deep minimum:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt

Meanwhile back on The Farm:

Peter Stott, climate Scientist & Manager of 'Understanding and Attributing Climate Change' (AGW/CC) at the UK's Met office Continues to utter gibberish as parts of Scotland experience the Coldest temperatures EVER RECORDED IN the UK, reportedly equivalent to Antarctic Temps.

A temperature of -28°C was recorded overnight of the 9th January in Sutherland, here in GM-land, according to BBC radio.
(NB Not all Scots are Genetically Modified.)

Last March's (2009) BBC Report quoting the Met Office as predicting the trend to milder, wetter winters would continue.
But that's two 'Coldest Winters' contiguously now, 2009 & 2010, in a row.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7921230.stm

'Peter Stott, of the Met Office, said despite this year's chill, the trend to milder, wetter winters would continue. <!-- E SF -->
<!-- S IBOX --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=231 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=5></TD><TD class=sibtbg>

PREVIOUS LOWEST UK TEMPERATURES

Scotland: -27.2 degrees Celsius (Braemar, Aberdeenshire 1895 & 1982 and Altnaharra, Highlands 1995)
England: -26.1 (Newport, Shropshire 1982)
Wales: -23.3 (Rhayader, Powys 1940)
Northern Ireland: -17.5 (Magherally, Co Down 1979)







































</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IBOX -->
He said snow and frost would become less of a feature in the future.
"The famously cold winter of 1962-63 is now expected to occur about once every 1,000 years or more, compared with approximately every 100 or 200 years before 1850," he said. The Met Office added that global warming had prevented this winter from being even colder."

Excuse me mr Stott, I fail to see this new 1000 year cycle evidenced between 1963 and 2009/10, or being constructed on the sort of data you present the unwitting public. And this is ridiClueLess.

However dismay not, for with every panicky step the Climate Campers take, they dig themselves in further, doomed to a demise frozen in their own sweat. During the winter of 1984 in the Pyrénées of Southern France (Meditteranean Climate, next on the list to Sub-Tropical) I experienced —25°C for 3 days, followed by two weeks @ -10°C.

Mr Stott of the Met Offices comments are clear disinfo aimed at assuring us that COLDER cndx do not in any way contradict the hypothesis of AGW/CC man made global warming. But the disgraced and overpaid scientist continues undeterred, n'est-pas, since surface Man-made CO2 is now being blamed for a shrinking and cooling of the Thermosphere (regions above 62mls or 100km) according to 'new research' from 'LiveScience.com'
http://www.livescience.com/space/091217-agu-earth-atmosphere-cooling.html

Whilst NASA research from the aptly named TIMED mission reveal:
'Satellite Measurements Show The Sun is Cooling The Atmosphere.'
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/...-quiet-sun-is-cooling-the-upper-thermosphere/

One version of Maunder Minimum History:
http://www.stsci.edu/stsci/meetings/lisa3/beckmanj.html

 

New Study Confirms the long-term Prognosis of this 'MM' Hypothesis.

New study by American solar experts identifies a sharp fall in sunspot activity since 2007 that fits the hallmarks of a soon arriving ice age. ​

http://www.suite101.com/content/evidence-of-solar-scientists-raise-fears-of-imminent-ice-age-a288855
By John O'Sullivan
Last Updated Sep 23, 2010, Published Sep 22, 2010

Read more at Suite101: Evidence of Solar Scientists Raise Fears of Imminent Ice Age http://www.suite101.com/content/evidence-of-solar-scientists-raise-fears-of-imminent-ice-age-a288855#ixzz10SJuSv3P
​

Solar scientists, not to be confused with climate scientists, study the most important heat engine driving our planet’s temperatures-the sun.
Matthew Penn and William Livingston, solar astronomers with the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona, have been following a marked decrease in sunspot activity recently. Reputable studies link a prolonged drop in sunspot activity to a cooling epoch or even a potential new ice age as more sunspots correlate with more global warming, while fewer sunspots are proven to match episodes of long-term cooling.
Since the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 the talk has been about global warming. But 22 years on the evidence has grown to raise fears of a catastrophic climate switch in the opposite direction. We look at the evidence that is raising some very serious questions in the scientific community.​

Read more at Suite101: Evidence of Solar Scientists Raise Fears of Imminent Ice Age http://www.suite101.com/content/evidence-of-solar-scientists-raise-fears-of-imminent-ice-age-a288855#ixzz10SIAIGZG​

 

Solar Cycle 24 may Herald 'Maunder Minimum' & mini Ice-Age?


Realtime Western Europe. EUMetSat. Very Frozen, temps -12°C typical minimum, -20°C alleged in the Scottish Highlands. Roads iced over since ~Nov 21st. Summary IMHO: Early onset of severe winter as predicted by farmers and rural types. But we had far worse and colder temperatures back in 1963 and worse still in South of Europe & Meditterranean in 1984.