Weather & Sunspot Cycle 24. Heralding a New Maunder Minimum & Ice-Age?

Interesting Discussion

Hi all,

after reading this very interesting discussion, I would like to throw in some comments from an "Old Europe" point-of-view:

- the glaciers in the Alps are shrinking drastically, some are already gone
- Dolphins have been spotted in the North Sea, off the German coast
- in 2003, the heat wave raging across Europe has killed 10.000 people in France alone
- for the first time in history, Tornados can be seen in northern Germany

These might be isolated events, but it looks to me that we are heading for global warming.

What I cannot understand, that some people are still proud to drive their 18 MPG pickup trucks. As soon as the gas price in the U.S. will reach European levels (equivalent to $ 8 / gallon), people will be forced to re-think their energy consumption behaviour and start conserving energy and therefore reduce pollution and CO2 emissions.

Just my 20 cents.

vy 73 de Robert, DL5RT

 

Well how do you explain the Icecap Meltings?

How then do you explain 1/3 of the Northern Icecap melting if we are going into a global cooling?

 

Many of us have a valid need for pickup trucks, and some of those trucks get much better mileage these days. Most of the newer ones run on ethanol, and it's at least 60 cents a gallon cheaper than gas, so many with pickup trucks are buying the 85% ethanol blend, at least here where it's commonly available. Some folks fill up when the gas gauge says it's half full, and alternate between 10% ethanol and 85% - that way, they don't notice much performance difference between the two, and they still cut their oil consumption by half!

As for global climate change - it's pretty undeniable. Rattlesnakes are moving into southern Minnesota - up until recent years much too cold for them in winter. The ground doesn't freeze the way it used to. We've also got exotic weeds and insects moving up from Iowa. My wife saw a tropics-sized wasp the other day - their normal range is hundreds of miles south of here. We never had many fireflys up here 15 years ago, and now, they're everywhere at night. Thunderstorms have been growing more numerous and damaging every year, with more tornadoes further north. We've also experienced more floods due to thunderstorms 'training' on a particular course for several days. We've had two 'thousand year' floods in two subsequent years.

Yes, this has been the coolest summer since the year we moved here 15 years ago. It hasn't hit 90 yet. But, it's been in the 80's for months. It will be interesting to see how the average temp for the summer comes out - my guess is that it will be slightly higher than last year.

They haven't measured the atmospheric gases for 100 years - they've measured the air bubbles trapped in ice up to 800,000 years old! And right now, CO2 is higher than it's ever been, and there has never been such a rapid increase as there has in the last 20 years. The issue is not whether there are natural trends - everyone acknowledges them. It's also true that we SHOULD be on a downtrend in global temperatures and CO2 according to that 800,000 year old record of the cycles. But that's not what's happening. Something is overriding the natural cycle, and that appears to be CO2 from human activity.

I thought we had given up on politics? This thread just looks like another lame effort of the anti-Gore crowd to proselytize people into their weird religion.

 

"never before this far north" ???

The fact is that many now tropical plants grew very far North at many times in the past. Undoubtedly, the birds went where the plants were.

As evidence, consider the Medieval Warm Period (10th to 14th centuries). Water temperatures in the Northern hemisphere were up to 1°C warmer than today, allowing the planting of vineyards as far North as the coastal zones of the Baltic Sea (56° North Latitude).

 

Reading all the for and against comments, could it be that we are sitting on the cusp ? Maybe we are just experiencing the change from an earth which was warming up slightly to one which is now slowly getting cooler. This may of course be quite a normal activity for the sun but as most of our scientists haven't been around long enough their discoveries are still unproven.

As for the cooling of the weather I understand that this is because the jetstream has moved further south this year as it does when the heating up of the Pacific Ocean moves one way or the other. The weather we are experiencing this year resembles that which occurs in New Foundland and Iceland. Wet, cool air, low cloud, the only warmth is sitting in the sun, move into the shade and the air is cool.

If the sun does cool and we return to the Ice Age it will be more uncomfortable for us. People can live in increasing warmth and crops do grow, man has to start devising better ways of using water to grow crops. At the other extreme one doesn't find many wheat fields in Labrador !

Whatever we think or do it will not make an atom of difference. The world is in a relatively calm period, just thank your lucky stars we were not around when the glaciers in north America melted and billions of gallons of water flowed through Arizona and created the Grand Canyon. Just imagine standing on the Rock of Gibralter when the water in the Atlantic Ocean rose to such an extent that it broke through and formed the Mediterrean Sea. What a sight to behold !

Anyway, whatever we think or say the sun will still do its thing. A report I read the other day reported that there was nothing strange happening at the moment, and we would find out with some certainty in three or four years time as to whether the sun has fallen asleep.

G0GQK

 

Hard Scientific evidence does not either produce or support a conclusion that man has in any way contributed to the NATURAL warming and cooling of the planet.

This is not a position based upon politics. Most of the U.S. population clearly support efforts to have cleaner air and water. Because of that, and IN SPITE OF most of the efforts of the publicity seeking self-proclaimed "environmentalists", the US leads the world in actually doing something about clean air and water.

The problem that we have with the radical "environmentalists" is that their proposed "solutions" cost jobs, increase costs, close plants, raise prices, increase taxes, lower the standard of living in the US -- and do LITTLE OR NOTHING to improve air or water quality. REAL solutions provide continuous improvement while raising the standard of living, increasing jobs, and leveling or lowering taxes.

One of the "environmentalists" proposed "solutions" allows the worst polluters on the planet (two countries that are responsible for more than 50% of the world's pollution) to do NOTHING to improve air or water quality -- while singling out the US for Draconian measures. One wonders which of those countries paid to get that "treaty" written....

If you think governmental action is a "wonderful" way to fix anything, you clearly do not understand government. Case in point: The DFW area is required to use a "special" fuel formulation that is supposedly designed to REDUCE emissions during Summer. Not only does this formulation REDUCE GAS MILEAGE (by over 10%), but it also INCREASES emissions when used in the Dallas Summer climate. In other words, we get to consume MORE gas to go LESS miles -- and produce MORE emissions in the process. Why ? Because different climate conditions were not considered for the "one size fits all" government mandate.

 

Wasn't there some hubbub awhile back about how the Martian ice caps were melting because of (supposedly) a variation of solar output?

 

It really is shocking to me to see that in this day & age, there are still people in this country who do not believe in green house gasses caused by man, and it's effect on global warming.

I guess it shouldn't shock me too much, there are also people in this country who do not believe in dinosaurs and evolution.

Average Americans on the whole always seem to reject complicated answers to complicated problems, and in turn opt for denial (in this case, mostly fed by politicians with $$$ ties to oil executives).

 

It is shocking that Gores coolaid does not mention water vapor

Like other things in life, breathing isn't that simple. What we breathe in is far from pure oxygen, but roughly by volume 78 per cent nitrogen, 21 per cent oxygen, 0.965 per cent argon and 0.04 per cent carbon dioxide (plus some helium, water and other gases). The permanent gases in air we exhale are roughly 78 per cent nitrogen, 15 to 18 per cent oxygen (we retain only a small amount), 4 to 5 per cent carbon dioxide and 0.96 per cent argon, the CO2 being of course used by plants during photosynthesis.

And the biggest "green house gas is WATER VAPOR now compair co2 .04%

 

There was indeed such a hubbub, and I was baffled by it. I have been watching the Martian polar caps for fifty years, off and on. One cap more or less completely disappears each summer, the other one shrinks to a very small fraction of its maximum extent. Don't these people ever check their facts?

73

Brian G8ADD

 

This summer's poor North American growing season, as well as globally cooler temps, doesn't seem to fit the "model" GW enthusiasts have envisioned. Hence, the politically correct renaming of GW to global "climate change" -- something that's been going on since the planet's creation. What horse-pucky... all planetary change, whether it fits "their agenda" or not, is now -- through inclusionary convenience -- foreboding or scientifically predicted or "expected". Now they can say with confidence, "Watch out, we've known better all along! We can never be wrong!" Such blatant arrogance and scientifically derived presumption is astounding!

The ultimate arrogance self-centered Man bestows his brethren is that he/she is the cause for foreboding, planetary scale, weather change. We must forget about all the variable solar/cosmic forces and Earthly natural processes that affect and change our weather -- those naturally occurring on and off-world activities responsible for greater than 99% of the planet's current climate.

The Sky is falling... the Sky is falling! First it was the prediction of global cooling in the 70's, now of global warming in the 2000's. What to do... what to do?

Let's see how many can spell, "take" with "grain" and "salt"...


73.

 

Which Bands Affected the Worst?

Which bands are likely to be affected the worst?

6M is just getting to be fun again, are you suggesting a downturn?

What about 10M, down as well?

Does 160M get noisier or will 160 be better for regional comms?

Is there a good site which discusses all of this in common language?

(Some of the prop sites assume an "astrophysics" education!)

Thanks! & 73, doc KD4E

 

What is more worrisome are the masses who buy into wild "pronouncements" by "scientific authorities" (many of whom are neither scientific nor an authority in anything) that are made without one single SCIENTIFIC study that backs up their FOREGONE conclusions. Scientifically conducted studies using ALL datapoints do not indicate that any global warming (or cooling) exists OUTSIDE OF NORMAL LIMITS.

There is an especially worrisome side to this issue. That is that persons linked to a mediocre politician desperate to find an issue to leverage to get him elected may have CREATED a fake "clear and present danger". The politician in question is not smart enough to understand whether he is being used or not, and probably truly believes that "the sky is falling".

Clear and irrefutable evidence shows that the Earth has been both warmer and cooler than it is right now. There is tantalizing evidence that suggests that the long-term solar cycle is linked to these changes. We need several decades more data to determine if there is a true linkage, but one is forced to note some dramatic correlations.

The oil companies have much to gain -- and nothing to lose -- from REAL scientific studies. Virtually all "oil companies" are actually "energy" companies -- meaning they work with oil, gas, solar, wind, and several other technologies. (One of the largest makers of solar panels is an "oil company".)

One should also note that those "getting rich" from "huge oil company" profits (averaging only 10% ! ) include most Americans. If you have a mutual fund, a 401(k), or a pension fund, YOU own a part of at least one "oil company" -- and YOU are profiting when it makes a profit.

Hysteria never solves anything. It simply creates so much confusion that it is much more difficult to find FACTS that will allow us to reach a reasoned conclusion.

Hard SCIENCE neither supports nor stands against a hypothesis. It simply examines data and attempts to fit a conclusion (or set of conclusions) to the data. The "climate science" that has been used to support the HYPOTHESIS of "man-caused global warming" is so horribly flawed that is is blatantly false to term it "science".

 

This is an early version of my NVIS presentation, which should answer a lot of questions on HF propagation in general.
http://www.k5prk.org/files/articlesfiles/NVIS_Presentation_R1-4-4.pdf

This is the matching version of the companion tool.
http://www.k5prk.org/files/articlesfiles/VOACAP_OUTPUT_PARSE_DAL-SAT_DEC.xls

The latest version of the presentation was given at Ham-Com. If I can find time to finish the audio-video version, I will post it and the latest version of the tool on my web site.

 

Seems to me the guy making the most $$$ off of all this is Al Gore. He certainly isn't living like a pauper.

I have to assume that average American means most Americans. Is it possible that the average American would happily take steps to decrease these greenhouse gasses if doing so would actually accomplish something other than killing the US economy? China, Russia, India, and most of the emerging 3rd world certainly aren't going to do anything about it other than increase their emmisions. And if we are the only ones (certainly I would discount Europe as they'll roll over at the first sign of a fight) lowering our standard of living and killing our economy it will not take very long for us to be addressing each other as comrade because if you think the bear is dead you are greatly mistaken. He has just come out of hibernation.