A 12 Month Report Of the ARS Growth Trends

For various reasons I have not done the ARS numbers since June 15 2008 and am sorry to have it lapse.

This will be a 12 month rundown of the FCC numbers of hams. Here is the analysis of the numbers of individual FCC licensees as Of June 16 2009.

Notes:
It looks like the overall ARS numbers have increased by (+12,877) from June 15 2008. Tech / + had large increases (+9,092) as did General at (+4,427). Novice declined by (-1,703) and Advanced declined by (-2,029) as they always will.

The Technician license, is still the most popular license for newcomers, continuing to make good gains over the last year (6/15/08 - 6/16/09) However, it also seems that the movement from hams upgrading to General has been continuing. We see good movement to Extra, with increases of (+3,090) hams earning the Extra Class.

I should point out that what is being posted here are a comparison of two snapshots of the numbers taken at two different times, and it should also be mentioned that the numbers change every day, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing.


Total active individual licenses as of May 14, 2000:
Novice - 49,329
Tech/+ - 334,254
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total all classes - 674,792

Total active individual licenses as of June 16, 2009:
Novice - 17,497 (-64.5%) (-31,832)
Tech/+ - 327,793 (-1.4%) (-15,447)
General - 147,644 (+31.1%) (+34,967)
Advanced - 61,204 (-37.7%) (-38,588)
Extra - 117,387 (+47.4%) (+37,190)

The numbers above are in comparison to what they were as of May 14, 2000 as this was when the code test was dropped to 5WPM for General and Extra.

Total All Classes: 671,525 (+12,877) since the 1 year reporting period starting June 15 2008 ending June 16 2009.

Total all classes (5/14/00) - 674,792
Total all Classes (4/21/03) - 687,860 (all time high)
Total all classes (3/31/08) - 658,648

Total loss of 3,267 since 5/14/2000 (Was 674,792)
Total Loss of 16,335 since 4/2003 (all time high of 687,860)

We Gained:
9,092 - Tech/+
4,427 - General
3,090 - Extra
16,609 - Total

We lost:
1,703 - Novice
2,029 - Advanced
-3,732 - Total

+ 12,877 gain for the the time period from 6/15/08 - 6/16/09

Numbers of US population and the number of
hams at the start of each decade from 1930.

Year Population # Hams Growth Rate
1930 123,202,624 - 19,000
1940 132,164,569 - 56,000 +194%
1950 151,325,798 - 87,000 +55%
1960 179,323,175 - 230,000 +164%
1970 203,211,926 - 263,918 +15%
1980 226,545,805 - 393,353 +49%
1990 248,709,873 - 502,677 +28%
2000 281,421,906 - 682,240 +36%
2008 303,000,000 - 658,648 -3.5% (Est. population)
2009 306,684,279 - 671,525 -2.0% (Est. population

73
George
K3UD

 

Thank You

George,

I know I say this for a lot of folks who appreciate your number crunching on our behalf: "Thank you!"

de
Bill Pasternak, WA6ITF
ARNewsline

PS: Do you still fly the Bonnanza in your icon? I flew a V-35 only once -- out of Sommerset Hills / Basking Ridge. It has a completely different "feel" than the straight tail Cessna and Pipers I had flown to that time in the latter '60's. As I recall it was a hot August trip to the Flying W in Medford for a dip in Bill Witzel's airplane-shaped pool.

 

And, if you don't fly it, can I have it?????



Thanks for the info.

 

Bill,

For a number of years I flew the Cessna 150 and 172 as well as the Cherokee 140 and Cherokee 6 plus Switzer Sailplanes, the Citabria and The Piper Cub ($12 hour wet) The Bonanza icon is a reminder to me that if I ever hit a lottery the Bonanza will be the first "toy" I acquire.

I usually flew out of Wings Field just outside of Philadelphia as well as Limerick Airport near Pottstown PA. And Collegeville airport. Limerick has a nuclear power plant not to far from the end of the runway.

73
George
K3UD

 

Thanx for the hard work.

Interesting to see a small decline overall - I have had a HUGE jump in new hams here in 1-land.

I even did a class last year with over 18 hams in one group.

It is interesting to look at the trends. Interesting to look at the Advanced and Novice classes dipping.

Jonathan

 

Advanced and Novice classes will always be in decline. Some of the decline probably has something to do with Novices upgrading and to some extent some in the Advanced class may have moved up to Extra.

Have you ever wondered how many Novices are actually on the air? I almost never hear any on the CW bands or SSB on 10 meters.

On the other hand the Advanced class probably has a number of "Silent Keys" that will not be deleted from the FCC database until the 2 year grace period expires. It also could be that the typical Advanced is probably on the older side is quite happy to remain an Advanced and the silent key factor is primary reason for the decline.

Overall we had a 12 month increase of 12,877 or an average of 1,000+
per month. I was not that long ago when we were averaging about 2,000 a month.

Recap

We Gained:
9,092 - Tech/+
4,427 - General
3,090 - Extra
16,609 - Total

We lost:
1,703 - Novice
2,029 - Advanced
-3,732 - Total

+12,877 gain for the the time period from 6/15/08 - 6/16/09


73
George
K3UD

 

Unfortunately, the most important number in the long term is the growth per overall population. The last two years it has shown a decline, whereas there were double digit increases from 1940 through 2000.

Just a hunch, but it would be fascinating to see the relationship between overall population and ARS numbers from 2000 - 2009, and broadband internet penetration over the same period.

 

2001 is when broad band for the consumers was introduced. Take it for what that's worth

 

Great job on the number crunching there! Glad to see an increase there but in response to the overall 3% decline... That's pretty small. Yes there are a number of inactive amateurs, Silent Keys, and so forth but overall we are still doing pretty good. I think as long as we keep positive and help promote the hobby we will see a good future for the hobby. I am the president of my colleges ARC and it getting more active each year. Finding the best way of promoting the hobby for yourself is key and if we do that I am sure we will see a decline at first due to inactive or silent key calls but it will level off eventually.
Im turning 20 in a few days and can say that Broadband internet and cell phones shouldn't play as much of a role as we think they do. I use the internet all the time, I play my share of Halo 3 in between studies... Amateur radio is a hobby, not a just a way for people to talk to friends like on cellphones and such. We get on the radio to have fun chatting with friends either about radio or our own interests but we all use phones and the internet! Yes amateur radio, the internet, and cellphones are closely related but each has their own overall purpose in the grad scheme of things IMHO.


73's
Brent

 

Thanks George

 

Thank you for the number crunching. It just goes to show that we're NOT a dying breed, but are changing focus, and license classes within the hobby.

I have personally seen a growth in SWL, for example, over the past couple of years. As former soviet countries experience difficulties with the hardline Russian administration, I have received more listener reports from SWL's than ever before. I've written some and thanked them personally for sending me their reports, which I value as an antenna experimenter, and received responses back telling me that they use hams as baselines to adjust their receivers before cruising the shortwave broadcast bands, because hams are "always around". Rather than ignore the SWL world, I think the ARRL should incorporate them by issuing SWL "identifiers" such as RSGB, etc, do in other countries. From SWL to ham is a short step if encouraged.

 

I could not agree more

I started out as a Shortwave listener in the late 1960's, and once I acquired a decent shortwave radio (one with SSB), I was pretty amazed at the distances that I heard hams operating from.

A little encouragement can go along ways...

 

A 3% decline from a 36% increase is huge; especially considering that there were double digit increases per year after 1940. I would guess that a plot of the % of the population from 2001 to now would show first small double digit increase. then a single digit increase, to the current decline. This would track with broadband internet penetration and to a lesser extent, cell phone penetration.
When I was first introduced to AR in the 60s, every high school had an active radio club, and many summer camps as well. The University I went to in the 70s had a very active club and sponsered a full featured metro repeater that was located on campus. I know of no high school in my current metro area or the one I grew up in that has a club now.
Since the data are no longer available, it is difficult to determine the average age of a licensee now, but it looks like it is very high based on what I see at hamfests. Without young people, en masse, we will continue to see a yearly decline until the last ham passes quietly onto that vibroplex in the sky.

 

Or if not that, then an important part of the hobby. I agree about treating US SWL's like the RSGB does.

 

Yes, I'd go along with ARRL encouraging SWL's too. We all should. We have one very long term member of our radio club who is an SWL, and he's a very valuable part of the group. He comes up with some of the most interesting things for 'show and tell'. Since most of us don't go to the SWL world that often, it's nice to look and see what's there on occasion.

Thanks for the numbers, George. It looks to me like the trend is positive, though maybe not as much as some would hope.

I'm seeing a lot of interest again all of a sudden. The Internet is such an appliance that I think people are looking for something different.

To encourage growth, I think we need to have the attitude that Ham Radio is not at all obsolete. It is THE appropriate technology for the gaps it fills.