Amateur Radio Growth, 1st Quarter 2008. A look at the numbers
Here is the analysis the numbers of individual FCC licensees covering the months of January through March 2008.
Notes:
It looks like the overall ARS numbers have increased by 912 from January through March 2008. Tech/+ had large increases while General had small increases. Novice and Advanced declined, as they always will.
It looks like the Technician license is still the most popular license for newcomers, making good gains over the last 2 quarters, and also seems like the large movement from hams upgrading to General has slowed down to trickle Over the last 6 months. On the other hand we are seeing rather good movement to Extra.
This is the largest quarterly increase I have seen in a long time.
I should point out that what is being posted here are a comparison of two snapshots of the numbers taken at two different times and it should also be mentioned that the numbers change every day, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing. I always use the last day of previous reporting period and the last day of the present reporting period.
Total active individual licenses as of May 14, 2000:
Novice - 49,329
Tech/+ - 334,254
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750
Total all classes - 674,792
Total active individual licenses as of March 31, 2008:
Novice - 19,805 (-59.9%) (-29,524)
Tech/+ - 316,815 (-5.2%) (-17,439)
General - 142,918 (+26.8%) (+30,241)
Advanced - 65,367 (-34.5%) (-34,415)
Extra - 112,850 (+43.3%) (+34,100)
Total All Classes: 656,680 (+912) since the
4th Quarter 2007 reporting period ending December 31.
The numbers above are in comparison to what they were as of May 14, 2000 as this was when the code test was dropped to 5WPM for General and Extra.
Total all classes (5/14/00) - 674,792
Total all Classes (4/21/03) - 687,860
Total all classes (3/31/08) - 656,680
Total loss of 18,112 since 5/14/2000 (Was 674,792)
Total Loss of 31,180 since 4/2003 (all time high of 687,860)
We Gained:
1,563 Tech/+
244 General
831 Extra
+2,638 Total
We lost:
651 Novice
1,075 Advanced
-1,726 Total
+ 912 Gain for the quarter
Numbers of US population and the number of hams at the start of each decade from 1930.
So much for the theory that we would pick up a lot of new hams due to the no-code getting passed.
Our numbers will continue to decline and it will eventually become impossible to defend the spectrum allocated to the ARS. All things change....ham will go away one day.
Ultimately, the question will be how many of those new 1,500 Techs go on to General and Extra. I think that in the past, the percentage was quite low. Now, it should be much better.
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As sure as God made little green apples, no matter what the statistics of amateur licensing are, there will be a long line of hams standing in a row, all proudly declaring that "we told you so" and that "see, ham radio is dying". Such whining is at best useless, and more often directly harmful to amateur radio.
Every ham who tells someone that "ham radio is dying" should be viewed as a blot on amateur radio. We are granted use of spectrum as part of our promise to train, self-educate, experiment and to serve the public. If ham radio is dying, look around: it can only be OUR OWN FAULT. And there is obviously stuff we can do about it. Stuff way more useful than just crying while following the other lemmings over the cliff. In the world of computers, there is an acronym which seems applicable: PEBCAK. It stands for Problem Exists Between Chair and Keyboard. If amateur radio isn't all it could be, perhaps we should all begin by examining how we all work to create amateur radio, and what we can individually do to make it better.
I suspect a typo or a small error in the section on growth rates, where it shows a decline of -194%, -155%, etc.
Nothing can decline by more than 100%.
Between the number of hams and the growth rate is a dash, not a minus sign. A little ambiguous, I'll grant you. But it shows a decline in the number of hams of only 4.5% since the all time high in 2003.
However, hams as a percentage of the population dropped from 0.24% in 2000 to 0.22% this quarter. That's a decline of 9% as a portion of the population. It may not be a great sign for the future, but I would bet that the number of commerically licensed operators are not much higher as a portion of the population. As long as the FCC continues to recognize the value of our contribution to emergency communications and advancement of the art of communications, we've got some time.
I myself and the XYL (KC5EGP) have personally made a conscience effort to promote ham radio as much as possible. We talk it up every chance we get, as we are both officers in our local club. We also pay for and support our local club website This is only a little of what we do to promote the service. Talking to others in a positive manner can accomplish a lot. We can account for several new members to the amateur community. Lets all get behind a great hobby and keep it going.
Although some of the numbers dont look great in terms of our future, I am optimistic of some of the programs that are taking hold to reach the youth section.
For example, I have started a ham club at the high school I teach at. The support I have received from the ham community as well as the resources that the ARRL are offering to me as an educator are a sign of things moving in the right direction.
I hear some hams say that the young people are not interested in ham radio. What I am finding as a public school teacher is that most kids have never heard of ham radio.
I also want to thank the hams that have supported our club through their patience with our young people on the air.
I really think that the best thing we can do as hams for the future of ham radio is to keep focusing resources on high school and middle school kids. Maybe im biased since I teach young people. Anyway, the new programs out there that help teachers like myself teach kids about ham radio are what we need more of and from the looks of things, the ARRL is stepping up to the plate.
Thanks for reading my post. Sincerely, Greg Sarris KC8OKG
We appreciate your support.
Amateur Radio Growth, 1st Quarter 2008. A look at the numbers
and the first one who has pointed this out. Thanks for the heads up. I am now using Plus & Minus 
Amateur radio growth
Linear Mode
