The National Hurricane Center is tracking two systems in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico. Tropical depression Five-E has formed today and forecast to become a hurricane by 7-14-15. NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac The JTWC is tracking this and two western Pacific Typhoons: JTWC: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
thanks to El Nino California might get some rain.. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2015/07/09/el-nino-california/29921633/
That is very true. Even for our friends and families in Hawaii. I heard a great explanation as to why: "El Nino and La Nina were secretly married years ago. All the kids are brats"
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-nino-to-be-one-of-strongest/50081969 At least the MJO is coming back down to neutral: Should allow for a break in Typhoon land. Certainly a very interesting time to be a meteorologist! The fire weather in the western US and the drought all mean busy busy at work.
Update 7-14-15 1700 UTC The latest GOES West visible image is showing the overall spacing between the two systems. TS Enrique on the left is forecast to dissipate by the weeks end. Category 1 Hurricane Dolores is forecast to reach Category 3 by 7-16-15 0000 UTC . Wind gusts to 130 knots (about 150 mph) are expected by 7-16-17 at 1200 UTC..
Update 7-15-15 1300 UTC Hurricane Dolores has reached Category 4 over the past several hours. The storm is about 900 miles south of the US border and is already pushing moisture into Arizona and New Mexico. It is possible that this system may briefly reach Category 5 in the coming hours before starting to dissipate. NHS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS (sustained with higher gusts) INIT 15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH Saffir-Simpson Scale • Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt) • Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt) • Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt) • Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt) • Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt) • Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)
Twin tropical depressions Eight-E and Nine-E have formed in the eastern pacific. Nine-E should be a hurricane by Friday 7-31-15. When these two areas cross 140 degrees west (center of this GEOS West Image), they will fall under the area of responsibility of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) Hawaii. Stay tuned... <this image should auto refresh> NHC:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac JTWC:http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ CPHC: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/
Tropical depression Eight-E has expired. Tropical Depression Nine-E has formed Hurricane Guillermo. It is currently taking aim at Hawaii. This plot is generated by the JTWC.
Hurricane Guillermo has been downgraded to a tropical storm and turning northward. This and the previous two posts are updated when viewed. Both images show a stream of water vapor heading towards southern California.
Tropical Depression 10-E has formed TS Hilda which will become a hurricane 8/7/15 UT. This system has rapidly gained strength. The satellite images in the previous posts will update for this storm when viewed.
The NHS is forecasting the development of a new region (1). The Satellite images in the previous posts remain active for reference.
WTPN21 PHNC 141330 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 106.6W TO 16.7N 114.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.