GAS PRICE LOGBOOK

[KG4RRH]

China? I don't think anyone knows for sure but their oil consumption is increasing at about 3%/yr.

I found some numbers. In 2009, there was 18.7 Mbbl/day used in the USA and 8.2 used in China. In 1995, the USA was at 17.7 and China was at 2.6Mbbl/day. The USA peaked in 2004-07 at 20.8Mbbl/day and it's been declining since. China has been increasing at rates between 2-5%/year since the mid-90's with around 3%/year growth for the last 10. Then we have India coming on strong also. Google "Chinese oil consumption" if you'd like the links; I only used publicly available info.

Here's a question I didn't ask that got answered while looking into these numbers. How much of the world's known (proven) oil supply does China own either directly as a country or indirectly thru Chinese companies or via foreign firms where the primary stockholders (...controlling interest) are Chinese companies that are held in part by the Chinese government? I'm not talking about how much they have in-country but how much they own/control elsewhere. I found conflicting numbers but the total, even the conservatively numbers, are a lot larger than I would have imagined.

[KG4RRH]

This fact remains: NORTH AMERICA STILL HAS MORE ENERGY RESERVES THAN THE REST OF THE WORLD -- COMBINED.

Across all the countries in N. America, including unproven reserves, perhaps but who owns it? Who controls it?

[NW9R]

And here all these years I believe the moon was made of cheese....

[N2EY]

Across all the countries in N. America, including unproven reserves, perhaps but who owns it? Who controls it?

And how much would it affect gasoline prices?

73 de Jim, N2EY

[NL7W]

Ultimately, the Federal Government controls or regulates America's oil/gas, every aspect of it, despite who owns, leases, or produces it. Really...

It's the government that wholly regulates that industry in the USA -- through interstate commerce in the Constitution.

When you hear the Fed Gov saying it has "no control" over certain aspects of the industry, the Gov is feeding you a line of...

If the Gov wanted to open up the spigots in America, it could do so easily through various incentives that encourage production. Or, it could do as it has been lately, discouraging it by every means possible.

Across all the countries in N. America, including unproven reserves, perhaps but who owns it? Who controls it?

[N2EY]

Easy... deep water, high pressure drilling/ production and shallow water (jack-up rig), low pressure drilling/production are DIFFERENT animals.

Of course they are. But they're both off-shore drilling.

A moratorium on ALL off-shore drilling was ridiculous.

Ah - so it was a moratorium, not an outright cancelling.

Why was it ridiculous? Considering the magnitude of the Deepwater Horizon disaster, it seems prudent to at least take a second look.

Regarding this summary judgement of the Executive Branch, either you trust your multiple government agencies, both at the federal and state levels, to do their jobs, or you don't. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SALIENT GIVEN 5 YEARS OF HOOPS JUMPED THROUGH, PROCESSES FOLLOWED, AND THESE PRELIMINARIES COSTING OVER 4 BILLION DOLLARS! THE PROJECT WAS ALREADY APPROVED!

Deepwater Horizon was approved too. Then it turned out that some really bad decisions were made.

Shell still has hurdles to jump through... milestones that were already met and PASSED once, but must be reviewed and met again... it's plainly ridiculous that such RED TAPE exists. Reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/18/sc...-drilling.html

Of course... the environmentalists would postpone all drilling indefinitely... for that's their plan. If the government won't do it, serial law suits by loosely organized environmental groups will do so. The NYT article comes right out and says it. Nothing new here... with the environmentalists wanting to stop all energy production. There's also nothing new with off-shore, cold water oil drilling... for it's been done in the North Sea for decades, in worse conditions. It's too bad the feds cannot realize this.

Just because something has been done, doesn't mean it's a good idea. Disaster after disaster has been caused by the attitude of "we've done this before and never had a problem"

What about the objections from Native Alaskans? Do they not count?

As far as "environmentalists wanting to stop all energy production", that's just not true. You may think them overcautious, but isn't an ounce of prevention better than a pound of cure? Is the environment not worth protecting?

Consider too that environmental groups and Native Alaskans do not have billions to spend on their efforts.

Food for thought: WWII was planned, fought and won in LESS than this time period! Bureaucracy at its finest...

WW2 started no later than September 1939 and ended September 1945. Six years. And there were many SNAFUs and FUBARs along the way. The Mark 14 torpedo debacle is just one example.

The answer is easy... trust your agencies and their decisions -- hold your federal workers RESPONSIBLE if something happens under their watch. Fire them accordingly, if they fail in their decision making, management/oversight (regulation).

That worked really well with FEMA and Hurricane Katrina, didn't it?

Did anybody in the government get fired because of TMI? Katrina? Deepwater Horizon?

And again: An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

But let's ask the really important questions:

1) If we have a bazillion barrels of oil shale, why do we need new oil wells in Alaska?

2) Suppose the Administration immediately reversed their decision and allowed all permitted drilling to resume. And guaranteed that there would be no further stoppages.

How long before those new wells begin producing? How much would they produce?

Most of all, how much would they push down the price of gasoline at the pump?

My guess to the answers are: years, not much, and a few pennies at best.

73 de Jim, N2EY

73 de Jim, N2EY

[WA6TKD]

Here's a question I didn't ask that got answered while looking into these numbers. How much of the world's known (proven) oil supply does China own either directly as a country or indirectly thru Chinese companies or via foreign firms where the primary stockholders (...controlling interest) are Chinese companies that are held in part by the Chinese government?

Best of my knowledge NO oil companies these days 'owns' oil fields in other countries. Too many past nationalizing of oil wells brought too much risk to that kind of arrangement as was done in the past. What you have now are 'production agreements' between a oil company(s) and the country that 'owns' the oil. The oil companies agree to put up the capital and expertize to develop and pump the oil for some percentage of production, often in partnership with the countries own nationalized oil company which must own at least 51%. Such contracts are often subject to renegotiations depending on the whim of the country as power passes to leader to leader. Producing oil in countries other then one's own can be very risky business these days.

[WA6TKD]

Did anybody in the government get fired because of TMI? Katrina? Deepwater Horizon?

Yes the head of FEMA got replaced (Brownie?) although I felt most of the blame should have been placed at the feet of the state and local governments poor planning and response. FEMA is not or ever will be an effective 'first responder' type organization. nor should it be.

Deepwater Horizon, Yes the head of the mineral management department stepped down (resigned, fired, whatever) almost immediately.

TMI ? Too long ago to recall.

[KG4CGC]

Go back to the bottom of page 14. The supply is being manipulated. So much for all that unregulated free market talk.
The supply is being choked off by an American for the purpose of profits and manipulating public opinion.

[KG4RRH]

Ultimately, the Federal Government controls or regulates America's oil/gas, every aspect of it, despite who owns, leases, or produces it. Really...

It's the government that wholly regulates that industry in the USA -- through interstate commerce in the Constitution.

When you hear the Fed Gov saying it has "no control" over certain aspects of the industry, the Gov is feeding you a line of...

If the Gov wanted to open up the spigots in America, it could do so easily through various incentives that encourage production. Or, it could do as it has been lately, discouraging it by every means possible.

The US Federal Government current does not limit export of either raw oil or refined product to anywhere except Cuba, Iran, and N. Korea, although how it can be shipped or exported is rather well regulated. Correct? If a company wanted to send the raw or final product elsewhere to make more money, they can and in fact do that today. If the Chinese or Saudi Arabian government (...they have the cash now) or maybe even Apple and the Koch Brothers, could legally purchase all the oil fields in the country for top dollar, extract the product, and ship it to anywhere they wanted ... with the only required customer in the USA being our Strategic Reserve (i.e. the Federal Government). That's why statements like "...it's our oil." are really kind of meaningless these days in our free market and it's why when the US Federal Government says they have no control over the price and availability, they aren't lying in the least. Other countries solved that "problem" by nationalizing oil and refinery production along with pipelines, tanker trucks, barges, gas stations, .... everything involved. I personally don't want the US Government to run our oil industry but it can "fix" a lot of the issues being talked about here, all the while generating a lot new ones.

What we need is to truly begin the very painful task of terminating the addiction and get serious about building up a new economy with industries we most likely haven't even thought of today, making things and providing services that are also unknown at the present, in the pursuit of renewable, truly sustainable, replacements.