The World Wide Radio Operators Foundation (www.wwrof.org) is pleased to present the following Webinar, "Solar Topics - Where We're Headed" by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA. Date & Time: August 23, 9:00 PM EDT (August 24 - 01:00 UTC) Registration: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4583976502814826243 Description: Carl K9LA will give a brief update on Cycle 24, and then discuss the implication of the number of days with zero sunspots, the trend of the strength of the magnetic fields around sunspots, the correlation of the duration of solar minimum to the maximum of the next solar cycle, and several other issues. He will also explain why we have a revised data set of new sunspot numbers. He will also include information on a propagation issue (or two). 73 Ken K4ZW
Ken, Where we are headed is toward a grand solar minimum. You might want to google search and read the article: "Preparing for the Propagation Winter." - Randy W7TJ
Considering how well Cycle 24 was predicted, it's premature to assume anything right now. Looking at the chart of sunspot activity from the Maunder minimum (1700) until today, one thing is apparent, there are no patterns. Cycle 25 might well be very much like all the cycles that have come before. If no one got this one right, why should I believe predictions about the next one! http://astronomynorth.com/2013/01/did-you-see-that-peak-of-solar-cycle-24-changed-again/
One thing has been apparent to me for many years is that if you stand back and look at the sunspot chart, each year, until this last cycle, we have had ever increasing activity. To me that explains the so called "global warming". (More solar activity = hotter sun =hotter planet) REAL science has showed this stopped in about 1999 and now we have "Climate Change_... DUH... If the solar activity is decreasing and the radiation hitting the planet is changing, then the wind patterns will change thus the weather will change. The sun is THE only thing big enough to change climate PERIOD...CO2 is a food for plants and a pollution. Something that appears not to be taught in schools anymore... So what I think will happen, will be massive global cooling and maybe a mini Maunder minimum over the next 2-4 decades. Not years, but decades. This will make hamming a challenge.... 160-30 meters will be hotter then 20-10 meters.. 6 meter is the "magic band" and follows different rules, so we will see. I also see the possible use of more satellite work and more digital advancements... Ham radio won't die, it will just adapt. My 2 cents on a subject I have been following before Al Gore and the big lie.... 73 Harry K7ZOV
FYI: check out this link: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/emily-richards/british-profs-new-model-solar-cycles-predicts-mini-ice-age-2030 Maybe it’s a better idea to invest in VHF and higher frequency technology if this proves out. Here’s a copy of the research paper describing the new solar model. I know it may be too abstract for some to understand fully but it’s to assure you that the article described above was not merely a journalistic exaggeration.. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/234495373_A_new_model_of_the_solar_cycle Pete, AD0MV
Balderdash! Please explain why the planet is STILL warming when according to you the extra heat from the sun ended in 1999? Brian
Well, being a ham for 45 years I can say, "I got mine". A webinar about the sun and sunspots is virtually useless information. The activity on the sun is not something we can control so it is what it is and what it is going to be. The bands will always be open at one time or another and F2, is not always the only exciting medium and with the advancement in weak signal modes such as JT65, the bands will be open somewhere at sometime. However, one of the "Bright Spots" (no pun intended) during the solar minimum, repeaters will become more popular. As of now, they are a complete wasted desert of frequencies. Perhaps 2 meter SSB will make a comeback as people start to get bored listening to the continual and always crashing static on HF. K2WH
Please allow me to recommend, "Dark Winter," by John L. Casey, former White House national space policy advisor, NASA headquarters consultant and space shuttle engineer. Mr. Casey is currently President of the Space and Science Research Corp. based in Orlando, Florida. Mr. Casey presents historical data which verifies a 206-year solar cycle (Bicentennial Cycle), which bottomed last during the Maunder Minimum. He predicts the bottom of the current 206-year cycle will be approximately 2031, which may be long-lasting (perhaps ten years). Mr Casey also presents his "Theory of Relational Cycles of Solar Activity," which accounts for multiple short and long-term cycles. Some members of the U.S. scientific community, which are aware of the 206-year solar minimum now approaching, are predicting a reduction of .3 percent in the sun's output. Russian scientists (who are much more involved in solar research) are predicting a reduction of .5 percent. Allow me to remind our amateur radio community that the vast oceans function as a giant heat capacitor, storing heat that diminish the short-term effects of reduced solar output. Some researchers claim that it takes eight years of reduced solar output before there is any significant drop in air temperatures. It is obvious that the Gulf Stream currents have definitely changed. During the first week of August, 2016, an 87-year record was broken relative to hurricane formations in the Atlantic Ocean. There have been none this year. The last record was set in 1929, three years before the Dust Bowl began. This is significant because cooler ocean surface temperatures translate into less evaporation and less moisture flow over nearby land areas. During an El Nino event, moisture flow over the U.S. is abundant. Conversely, the opposite is true during a La Nina event. For further information regarding sea-surface temperatures, please subscribe to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's monthly email update at: http://www.lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/ncep.list.enso-update. "Dark Winter" was published by Humanix Books, Library of Congress Control Number, 2014939082 On a personal note, K5MS, Robert Rowe of Alexandria, La, active ham since 1946, claims that current skip-conditions are the absolute worst he has experienced. 73s, Cecil (W5HWU)
Are you blind? You can see that there is a cycle within a cycle! The last one ending with cycle 18. Go and look.
The above link to NOAA isn't working?? Sorry. Please go to: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
GEEEZ GUYS!!! It's like this:"Everybody has a OPINION, some are educated GUESSES and others are "Wishful thinking", but because MAN is spewing these ideas they're USELESS!!! WHY U ASK? Because Man is dealing with "MOTHER NATURE" and she's the ONLY LADY WHO ALWAYS HAS HER WAY WITH WE HUMAN-MINIONS & SHE CAN CHANGE IN A HEART-BEAT!!!
My apologies to Mr. Luetzelschwab, QRZ.com, the World Wide Radio Operators Foundation and the many members of QRZ.com for my apparent breach of protocol. Obviously, my attempt to be supportive was misinterpreted. I am very appreciative of Mr. Luetzelschwab's work and his dedication. My post (in response) was given as an act of sharing. This was my only motive. Because of the overwhelming opposition to the concept of "global cooling" (which I am encountering on a local level) I am very supportive of any attempt to enlighten our community with scientific fact. I thought my reference to "Dark Winter" would be helpful. Forgive me if I was a bit presumptuous. My sincere apologies, Cecil Chaudoir W5HWU
