We May Have Just Solved the Mystery of 11 Year Long Solar Cycles

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KC8FRJ, Aug 11, 2019.

ad: L-HROutlet
ad: l-rl
ad: MessiPaoloni-1
ad: Subscribe
ad: K5AB-Elect-1
ad: Left-2
ad: L-MFJ
  1. AF4RK

    AF4RK Ham Member QRZ Page

    If Mohammed won't go to the mountain, we will bring the mountain to Mohammed

    We discuss a solar dynamo model of Tayler–Spruit type whose Ω -effect is conventionally produced by a solar-like differential rotation but whose α -effect is assumed to be periodically modulated by planetary tidal forcing.
    This resonance-like effect has its rationale in the tendency of the current-driven Tayler instability to undergo intrinsic helicity oscillations which, in turn, can be synchronized by periodic tidal perturbations.
    Specifically, we focus on the 11.07-years alignment periodicity of the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, whose persistent synchronization with the solar dynamo is briefly touched upon.
    The typically emerging dynamo modes are dipolar fields, oscillating with a 22.14-years period or pulsating with a 11.07-years period, but also quadrupolar fields with corresponding periodicities.
    In the absence of any constant part of α , we prove the sub-critical nature of this Tayler–Spruit type dynamo. The resulting amplitude of the α oscillation that is required for dynamo action turns out to lie in the order of 1 ms−1 ,
    which seems not implausible for the Sun. When starting with a more classical, non-periodic part of α , even less of the oscillatory α part is needed to synchronize the entire dynamo.
    Typically, the dipole solutions show butterfly diagrams, although their shapes are not convincing yet. Phase coherent transitions between dipoles and quadrupoles, which are reminiscent of the observed behavior during the
    Maunder minimum, can easily be triggered by long-term variations of dynamo parameters, but may also occur spontaneously even for fixed parameters. Further interesting features of the model are the typical second intensity peak
    and the intermittent appearance of reversed helicities in both hemispheres.

    Hey, If you doubt me, just ask Chip W1YW
  2. AF4RK

    AF4RK Ham Member QRZ Page

    Better to light one candle, than to curse the darkness
    (Old Chinese Proverb)
    K0UO likes this.
  3. K0XU

    K0XU Ham Member QRZ Page

    I still have to fall back on the old adage "correlation does not prove causation", unless, of course, you can show that Jupiter took an out of system vacation during the Maunder minimum.
    AF9US, N4DJT and KA2FIR like this.
  4. VK2MS

    VK2MS Ham Member QRZ Page

    Hi...when amateur radio was scientific and we had rules, the amateur was to be courteous. That seems to be fading away with everything else that made the Amateur a special kind of person.
  5. KA2IRQ

    KA2IRQ Ham Member QRZ Page

    I don't think it has anything to do with amateur radio - that is merely the topic of discussion. On these forums, the attitude is more of a "social media" mindset.
    KA2FIR likes this.
  6. AF4RK

    AF4RK Ham Member QRZ Page

    This is not due to "correlation" this is due to Rayleigh-Taylor instability caused by the tidal forces. Please read the complete article. I understand it is not easy to comprehend and may be beyond your ability to understand. I suggest you leave this to people with a background in physics and math.
  7. AF4RK

    AF4RK Ham Member QRZ Page

    I don't think I can explain this in a way that would be understood by the layman. The Ohm Effect (Greek Symbol) references the angular rotation of the sun which varies by latitude. The alpha (greek symbol) references the vertical component of convection currents in the sun. I am going to provide a wiki leaks explaining the Rayleigh Taylor instability so you can understand how the weak gravitational forces of the listed planets influences "mixing" of these convection currents in the sun, producing sunspots. This is a causal mechanism not coincidental which is supported by the periodicity of the planetary alignment.

    Since most people never click on the link, here is the text
    The Rayleigh–Taylor instability, or RT instability (after Lord Rayleigh and G. I. Taylor), is an instability of an interface between two fluids of different densities which occurs when the lighter fluid is pushing the heavier fluid.[1][2][3] Examples include the behavior of water suspended above oil in the gravity of Earth,[2] mushroom clouds like those from volcanic eruptions and atmospheric nuclear explosions,[4] supernova explosions in which expanding core gas is accelerated into denser shell gas,[5][6] instabilities in plasma fusion reactors and [7] inertial confinement fusion.[8]

    Water suspended atop oil is an everyday example of Rayleigh–Taylor instability, and it may be modeled by two completely plane-parallel layers of immiscible fluid, the more dense on top of the less dense one and both subject to the Earth's gravity. The equilibrium here is unstable to any perturbations or disturbances of the interface: if a parcel of heavier fluid is displaced downward with an equal volume of lighter fluid displaced upwards, the potential energy of the configuration is lower than the initial state. Thus the disturbance will grow and lead to a further release of potential energy, as the more dense material moves down under the (effective) gravitational field, and the less dense material is further displaced upwards. This was the set-up as studied by Lord Rayleigh.[2] The important insight by G. I. Taylor was his realisation that this situation is equivalent to the situation when the fluids are accelerated, with the less dense fluid accelerating into the more dense fluid.[2] This occurs deep underwater on the surface of an expanding bubble and in a nuclear explosion.[9]

    As the RT instability develops, the initial perturbations progress from a linear growth phase into a non-linear growth phase, eventually developing "plumes" flowing upwards (in the gravitational buoyancy sense) and "spikes" falling downwards. In the linear phase, equations can be linearized and the amplitude of perturbations is growing exponentially with time. In the non-linear phase, perturbation amplitude is too large for the non-linear terms to be neglected. In general, the density disparity between the fluids determines the structure of the subsequent non-linear RT instability flows (assuming other variables such as surface tension and viscosity are negligible here). The difference in the fluid densities divided by their sum is defined as the Atwood number, A. For A close to 0, RT instability flows take the form of symmetric "fingers" of fluid; for A close to 1, the much lighter fluid "below" the heavier fluid takes the form of larger bubble-like plumes.[1]

    This process is evident not only in many terrestrial examples, from salt domes to weather inversions, but also in astrophysics and electrohydrodynamics. RT instability structure is also evident in the Crab Nebula, in which the expanding pulsar wind nebula powered by the Crab pulsar is sweeping up ejected material from the supernova explosion 1000 years ago.[10] The RT instability has also recently been discovered in the Sun's outer atmosphere, or solar corona, when a relatively dense solar prominence overlies a less dense plasma bubble.[11] This latter case is a clear example of the magnetically modulated RT instability.[12][13]

    Note that the RT instability is not to be confused with the Plateau–Rayleigh instability (also known as Rayleigh instability) of a liquid jet. This instability, sometimes called the hosepipe (or firehose) instability, occurs due to surface tension, which acts to break a cylindrical jet into a stream of droplets having the same total volume but higher surface area.

    Many people have witnessed the RT instability by looking at a lava lamp, although some might claim this is more accurately described as an example of Rayleigh–Bénard convection due to the active heating of the fluid layer at the bottom of the lamp.
  8. AF4RK

    AF4RK Ham Member QRZ Page

    This is sad. The earliest amateurs were leaders in science and frequently had the best radio stations in the world, even more advanced than the US Navy. About the founder of amateur radio.
    Engineer, scientist, inventor, and hobbyist Hiram Percy Maxim earned patents for his inventions in automotive design, noise abatement, and other fields. Also a passionate hobbyist, he left his mark on early aviation and wireless radio. Maxim’s broadly recognized achievements brought fame to Hartford, where he made his home from 1899 until his death in 1936.
  9. AF4RK

    AF4RK Ham Member QRZ Page

    I am not saying you need to be a scientist to be an amateur radio operator. I am saying you should have some respect for the people who gave you the toys you enjoy so much.
  10. W6PDL

    W6PDL Ham Member QRZ Page

    Excellent video. This is the great mystery for hams and you have brought forth a plausible hypothesis for us to ponder.

Share This Page