The RF-Seismograph measures massive radio blackout during California earthquakes

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by VE7DXW, Jul 4, 2019.

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  1. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Hi Everybody;

    A massive shortwave radio blackout continues to disrupt the Pacific West of America! It is not caused by the sun (the sun is quiet), but the field lines of the quakes themselves, that still shake California . The disruption started at around 16:00 UTC and is still continuing. As of this point there were more than 84 aftershocks!

    If you want to receive these earthquakes reports on a regular bases please join the MDSR.io group.

    Here is the location: All the quakes have been located in a 10 km2 area and keep continuing to shake California, more than 84 quakes in the past 6 h!
    [​IMG]

    The measurement of the RF-Seismograph: total radio blackout except for 20 m which is severely attenuated at this moment. We do not have any estimates when it will stop.
    A quick glossary of how to read the graph below.
    [​IMG]
    All the best and 73;



    Alex - VE7DXW
     
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  2. WZ7U

    WZ7U Ham Member QRZ Page

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  3. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    As I and others have posted previously, this is interesting but meaningless for prediction unless you also account for the times when radio was attenuated without an earthquake.

    First, you need to mathematically define what you consider to be a quake precursor signal in your data, then find ALL such events in your data going back years and correlate to earthquake activity nearby, if any. If you really have found a quake precursor signal, it will stand out with a high correlation value. (There are more sophisticated statistical methods to use as well, and I have previously suggested free statistical tools which are available.)

    So far all you have shown us are post hoc analyses, which means you observe a quake, then go find an ionospheric precursor signal in your data. This is incorrect and misleading. I can do the same with almost any supposed precursor, for example, just before this quake my dog barked. Does that mean she can predict earthquakes? No, because she also barks at many unrelated times and analysis of all the times she barks would show a very low correlation with earthquakes.
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2019
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  4. VE7DXW

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  5. N0TZU

    N0TZU Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    Those are just a lot of graphs, no correlation analysis. Those events might be related, or they might not, just like my dog barking.

    I see no definition of what you consider to be a precursor which could be mathematically correlated to anything, it appears that you just eyeball the graphs.

    Saying that 72% of quakes had an ionospheric precursor is post hoc analysis again. You need to be able to state the converse, which is that a large percentage of all ionospheric events (by your definition, which is absent) had subsequent earthquakes. The two are NOT the same.

    You need to familiarize yourself with basic experimental and statistical analysis of data, and how to draw valid inferences and conclusions from it.
     
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  6. W8AAZ

    W8AAZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Reference article by VE7DXW, The Canadian Amateur, May/June 2019, pg. 32 The issue of strange lights appearing during quakes has been attributed to piezo-electric effects and if there is enough generated to create visual effects, who knows what else?
     
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  7. N0TZU

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    Yes, strange things have been anecdotally observed in association with earthquakes, and I have no doubt that many are true. For example, going back to antiquity animals have sometimes exhibited unusual behavior immediately before humans sensed an earthquake.

    The question is whether such observations have any predictive value. Animals can and do act “strangely” for a number of causes. Likewise the ionosphere is constantly changing for reasons having nothing to do with earthquakes, so that must be accounted for and factored out in any serious claim of a relationship to earthquakes.
     
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  8. KA9JLM

    KA9JLM Ham Member QRZ Page

    Most RF blackouts were due to power fails. Near as I can tell. Hard to see from here.

    I hope everyone is OK.
     
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  9. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW XML Subscriber QRZ Page

     
  10. VE7DXW

    VE7DXW XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Interesting thought, but I do not believe that the power outages are wide spread. Does anyone know exactly how many households are without power?
     

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