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Sunspot Cycle 24 Out without a BANG?, Another "Maunder Minimum"?, Social unrest?

Discussion in 'Discussions, Opinions & Editorials' started by KN4X, Jan 13, 2011.

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  1. KN4X

    KN4X Ham Member QRZ Page

    Straight out of the gates ..... no politics or religion, please.

    I'm smart enough to know that real "trends" in the grand scheme of things are longer than a single man or woman's life, however I'm beginning to give this "Maunder Minimum" phenomenon a real look. It is fact, not a theory.

    I don't know about you and where you live, but it's cold in the South, and it's been that way for some time now. I know ... not long enough to be statistically important. Never the less, it has been a colder than usual winter (I have the utility bills to prove it) than any of my memory.

    The long heralded Sunspot Cycle number 24 has waffled so far. While it is to be seen what will actually happen, it sure looks like this is some sort of minimum developing. A mini ice age happened the last time such an event occurred.

    While the lack of sun spots and associated propagation may not be of significance to any but a few hobbyists, a mini-ice age is a real cause for concern. Feeding 6+ billion people doesn't happen by accident. Hungry people, of which we already have too many, will get more than a little restless when food stocks drop and inflationary pressures take staples out of their reach. Imagine the current inflation in food commodities (already fed by energy prices in the US) tripling, or worse due to global temps dropping.

  2. W4PG

    W4PG Super Moderator Staff Member QRZ Page

    Is there a question here? I'm confused . . . :confused:
  3. PA5COR

    PA5COR Ham Member QRZ Page

    There's always 160 meters :D
    Who needs sunspots anyway? :cool:
  4. K1DNR

    K1DNR XML Subscriber QRZ Page

  5. KB4QAA

    KB4QAA XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    sunspots and climatology are in debate. I think if you check you will find that there was a very high number of volcanic activity coincident with the M.M., a more likely and well known cause of climate cooling.
  6. KA4DPO

    KA4DPO Ham Member QRZ Page

    When all else fails, when things are at their darkest and the ice is everywhere, ham radio will be there. Yes amateur radio will save the day as all hams band together turning on their rigs and amplifiers simultaneously on 3940.00 KHZ, heating up the atmosphere and causing the crops to grow once more.;) So remember, When All Else Fails........:eek:
  7. KC2SIZ

    KC2SIZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    It's an 11 year cycle. 11 years is a long time. There's no way you will see "solar maximum" type conditions anytime soon. Things will improve VERY gradually.
  8. K4KYV

    K4KYV Subscriber QRZ Page

    Actually, the normal sunspot cycle resembles a sawtooth wave more closely than it does a sine wave. Usually, the maximum occurs quite rapidly after a minimum, but it decays more slowly.

    The big one, Cycle 19 peaked at around 240 in 1957, only 3 years after the 1954 minimum.

    Even during prolonged minima, the 11 year cycle is still there, but the peaks are extremely feeble.

    According to data presented in this article, we are overdue for a prolonged minimum.örer_Minimum
  9. K2WH

    K2WH Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Not to worry, the sun will explode into a nova and it will be lights out (literally).

    As said in 2010 a space odyssey, "You must leave in 2 days. Something wonderful is going to happen".

    Why worry, be happy.

  10. WA4OTD

    WA4OTD XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    In the subject?

  11. K4ZOT

    K4ZOT XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Global Warming


    Yes, this is the worse winter I can remember in the 10 years I've lived in Atlanta. I remember most winters being 40-50 degrees most of the time, but not recently. I guess it's all Global Warming and O' don't worry about our food prices going up, the Dems just committed billions more to incentives to grow more corn for Ethanol during the Lame Duck session. Our increase in food prices here and in the world can be directly linked to taking thousands of food producing acres out of production to grow Ethanol corn. Of course, drilling for more oil is not the answer!

    Concerning the MM, I'm more worried about survive the next two years.

  12. K4KYV

    K4KYV Subscriber QRZ Page

    As we shiver in the cold this winter, it is easy to forget that this summer we had near-record high temperatures.

    My vegetable garden fizzled due to the hot weather. Green beans didn't produce, and the tomatoes that ripened were the size of large grapes.

    We can't conclude anything about long term climate trends based on one or two years of extreme temperatures, to one extreme or the other.

    Like climate change, we won't know for sure how this solar cycle plays out until well after the fact.
  13. KA4DPO

    KA4DPO Ham Member QRZ Page

    Oh trust me the current deep freeze over the US is a side effect of global warming. You see, as the earth heats up the atmosphere cools creating the illusion of a really cold winter when actually it's much warmer than you think.

    I could explain all of this but it's very scientific and no one could even possibly begin to understand it. Just pay your energy taxes and we will take care of this problem for you..:D:D
  14. W4PG

    W4PG Super Moderator Staff Member QRZ Page

    It's pretty simply, actually.

    Record cold here, it's due to man-made global warming. Record hot here, it's due to man-made global warming. Record rain, snow, hail, tornadoes (but not hurricanes), it's due to man-made global warming.

    It was global warming (but not man-made) that shrunk the glaciers covering much of North America some 10,000 to 15,000 years ago.

    We're still warming up, continuing the trend, but now it's trendy to blame man.

  15. KN4X

    KN4X Ham Member QRZ Page

    :D I agree, and don't leave out 80m (except the part above 3.8 ;) )

    To those asking "Is there a question?", I asked 3 very brief starters in the subject line. Although there are much more important things going on in the World right now, those thoughts crossed my mind and I wondered if anyone else had a thought or opinion.

    My arm-chair research has shown that many solar cycles start rapidly, then taper slowly. This one is going to be a real winner as far as propagation goes if it keeps up it's current pattern.

  16. G8ADD

    G8ADD Ham Member QRZ Page

    We have an old saying, "one swallow does not a summer make". We have had one Maunder Minimum, and one mini ice age. They coincided in time, but that is no reason to jump to the conclusion that they were cause and effect - they might have been, or they might not. Now, after a run of spectacular sunspot cycles we have a laggard cycle, and all of a sudden "Maunder Minimum" is the flavour of the month - yet direct measurements of the energy received from the sun shows that it is pretty well constant, and figures out in the last few days shows that 2010 was equal first as the warmest year since records began. Something doesn't add up.

    We have had an unusually cold early winter in the northern hemisphere, but here in the UK the temperature is 10C (50F) right now, and the new growth from crocuses and daffodils is pushing through in the garden. There may well be more snow to come, but hey! thats weather for you, up and down all the time!

    Tell me about a Maunder Minimum in twenty years time.


    Brian G8ADD
  17. NN4RH

    NN4RH Subscriber QRZ Page

    Yeah, but for a few milliseconds before we evaporate, solar flux will be be huge and propagation will be awesome !
  18. N0AZZ

    N0AZZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Guess I'll go down happy working DX :D
  19. K4RKY

    K4RKY Ham Member QRZ Page

    I think he is saying, Lock your doors! :confused:
  20. M0TTB

    M0TTB Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    A lesser event, the Dalton minimum also saw a decline in temperatures...but again, plenty of volcanic activity

    But you're right, we'll probably be dead before anyone can claim this 'event' as a 'minimum', and name it after themselves :)
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