Stock Market

Discussion in 'ex-Rag Chew Central' started by KA5ROW, May 4, 2012.

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  1. KA5ROW

    KA5ROW Ham Member

    Why does the stock market seem to always go down on good news? Unemployment down: market down. Unexpected rise in unemployment numbers: markets up.

    It may not always be that way but I does seem that way.
     
  2. KI4NGN

    KI4NGN Ham Member

    Unemployment being down may be good for the economy, but it also means that company expenses have gone up.

    Unemployment being up may be bad for the economy, but it also means that company expenses have gone down.

    :)


    There is no rhyme or reason to explain emotion, and there's never just a single consistent reason for market swings.
     
  3. N2RJ

    N2RJ Ham Member

    It's because they were forecasting something and expected something else. 8.2% to 8.1%? Not much to write home about.

    Also, a drop in the unemployment number only means that fewer people filed. I believe the actual umemployment number is close to 12% and not 8%. Factoring in underemployment it's closer to 20%.

    There's something called the "participation rate" which simply means working age Americans, excluding prison population and the military (oddly enough) who have a job. It's about 63%.

    Your elected representatives probably don't want to show you or emphasize these numbers, but the reality is that it's pretty bad out there.
     
  4. K9ASE

    K9ASE Ham Member

    Well said!
     
  5. W4HAY

    W4HAY Subscriber

    That unemployment number is as phony as a Chappaquiddick neck brace. Forget the mainstream media. Their target audience is the lowest common denominator, not those who want to control their own destiny. Try these sources for more objective information:

    BARRON'S -- http://online.barrons.com/home-page

    FOX BUSINESS NEWS -- http://www.foxbusiness.com/index.html

    BLOOMBERG INFORMATION -- http://www.bloomberg.com/

    WALL STREET JOURNAL -- http://online.wsj.com/home-page

    INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY -- http://www.investors.com/

    KIPLINGER'S -- http://kiplinger.com/

    SMART MONEY MAGAZINE -- http://www.smartmoney.com/

    There are others, but these are the main ones. Some may require a subscription to get "the good stuff". One of the best sources I've found over many, many years is The Kiplinger Letter. Sample copies are available on this web page. It's well worth the cost if you're serious about actively managing your financial life.

    I think there are a few on here who farm. Kiplinger's Agricultural Letter might be of interest to them.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2012
  6. K1VSK

    K1VSK Ham Member

    If you want the actual total unemployment figures with no political bias, check out the U6 report on the DOL.gov site - approx 14.5%. As to market fluctuations, it's typically a function of a number of reports and trends, only one of which is unemployment. such things as trends in other markets internationally have an equivalent impact. Forecasters might as well use the SFI or sunspot numbers to predict trends.
     
  7. W2ILP

    W2ILP Ham Member

    Good news for WHO?

    Why does the stock market go down on good news?

    Let us first ask : good news for WHO?

    What is good news for 99 % of Americans is usually bad news fo the 1 % of Americans who hold most of the stock.

    To explain any more about this situation might be too political for QRZ moderators...In think...

    Wex, w2ilp (Inside Lower Percentages) Yep...The 1 % are the masters of the 99 %. Marching on Wall Street can not change that distribution...Remember also that the CEOs and business officer have options that no body else can have...and probably inside information that no one else can get...and blind trusts that no one else can see...I think...
     
  8. K9ASE

    K9ASE Ham Member

    I think a lot more than 1% hold 401K's or some other retirement savings that involves the sale of stocks
     
  9. G0GQK

    G0GQK Ham Member

    To answer that question you need a good crystal ball, its like the old Gordian Knot thingie.
     
  10. N0AZZ

    N0AZZ Ham Member

    This economy is very hard to take for a lot of us and harder on some than others. I took a bath on what stocks I had a few years ago but I never invested more than I cared if I lost just like a poker game you win some you lose some. Other investments I made money on during the downturn were meager but a little but still supported us OK we were very lucky.

    What a lot of the problem that still follows many still today from years past is living beyond their means homes, cars, credit cards, living large this is not all but some. The market effects everyone no matter what you think up and down it reflects on YOU one way or the other in strange ways difficult to explain in just a few paragraphs and I know very little either in long term effects. But do know recent events and new laws passed that we have stopped hiring and buying new equipment due to the regulations the costs of these will force us out of business. But that is no big deal we have been considering it for several years we have this business for 27 yrs and time to retire anyway. Had thought of selling to an employee but the new requirements would have done him in very early with no cash reserves, so just more jobs lost.
     
  11. W4HAY

    W4HAY Subscriber

    The sources mentioned above were warning of an impending market nosedive because of excessive debt and unrealistic prices, especially in the real estate markets, a couple of years before the '08 collapse. The zero-down, sub-prime interest rate, and approval of loans to unqualified borrowers were driving factors. Early in '06 investors were advised to begin dollar-cost-averaging out of equities and into interest-bearing instruments such as long-term CDs and bonds. These warnings escalated when it became apparent that there would be a drastic shift in the makeup of the House and Senate.

    Savvy investors made the move and took advantage of CDs in the 4-5% interest range, even though they didn't seem that good of a deal at the time.

    The bursting of the dot-com bubble was also accurately predicted and investors were advised to begin dollar-cost averaging away from high-flying tech stocks. Those that failed to heed Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" warning paid the price.

    The markets are not black magic if one does their homework.

    For those that want to be proactive about managing their lifestyles, consider Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine. I've used it for decades and it's always been very helpful for everything from planning for one's requirement to selecting the best car and even finding that exceptional $10 bottle of wine.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2012
  12. WF7A

    WF7A Subscriber

    I have to smile wryly when I read about investment and stock advice here and elsewhere since, being one of the working poor*, we're lucky we have food on the table let alone having any money to invest...and there are tens of millions of us. :S


    *We're flat broke days before each paycheck (we don't have any savings--all gone to medical bills. We also live a very simple lifestyle: no fancy stuff like cable or satellite TV, no going out for meals, etc.)
     
  13. N2EY

    N2EY Ham Member

    But the total amount invested by the 99% isn't that much per capita, compared to the 1%. A lot of 401Ks and IRAs are in mutual funds and bonds, not individual stocks.

    It should be remembered that "the stock market" indexes and prices are ONLY about very recent sales. For example, say Amalgamated Widgets has 10 million shares of common stock in the market. Say that on a particular day 1 million shares change hands at a price of $100 per share. The stock price is then $100.

    But the next day 1,000 shares change hands at $90. Big dip, right? Does it mean the company is suddenly worth 10% less?

    Nope.

    73 de Jim, N2EY
     
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