SDO HMIBC 9-14-15 21:45:00 UTC -- SDO HMIIC 9-14-15 22:00:00 UTC (orange) Region 2415 East is the object of interest this date. The area has produced activity during the past 24 hours. There is a 45% chance of C Class activity during the coming day. It should be on the Sun-Earth center line about early 9-17-15. It is located about 22 degrees south of the equatorial line which would direct most energy released below (south) of Earth. In a way, it looks like a disorganized strong tropical storm. At 9-15-15 at 0225 UTC Sunspot Number = 52, 10.7 cm Flux = 97, Area = 520, GOES 15 X-Ray Flux = B2.0, and 5 Optical S with no other flare activity.
STEREO A EUVI 284 9-16-15 15:45:22 UTC The latest image from the STEREO Ahead spacecraft on the far side of the sun is showing a large filament. If this region holds position, it should be in Earth view in the next day or so. The location is on to just south of the equatorial line.
This view (see previous post) of the filament from the SDO shows the full width and altitude of the region. The Earth image is shown to scale for approximate size (Earth diameter is about 7,917.5 miles). The upper edge of the image is very close to the solar equator. The region will be on the Earth north/south center line about 9-24-15. Filament eruptions as shown in previous posts, can "broadcast" particles in all directions from the surface into the solar wind (currently 400 - 500 kps) for a "quick trip" to Earth at any time. For further information see the SWPC website at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-prominence-southeast-limb
(See post #106) Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Sep 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2415 (S19W29, Eac/beta-gamma) produced a long duration C2/Sf flare at 18/0631 UTC. Type II (850 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps accompanied an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). Modeling of the event shows the majority of the ejected directed south of Earth with the northern flank possibly producing a glancing blow around the early portion of 21 Sep. http://sweoc.org/Forecast_Discussion.html
SDO AIA 304 9-20-15 04:58:55 UTC --- SDO HMIIC 9-20-15 12:30:00 UTC Newly numbered region 2450 fired off a practice shot as it emerges into view on the eastern limb over the past few hours. This event may have created an M0.5 flare. The lower edge of these images is very close to the equator. More information on this region will be available as it rotates into better view. The early indications from SWPC forecaster Spencer, show a moderate region with a 70% chance of producing C Class events, 25% M Class and 1% X Class events. On a time line this region will be on the Earth centerline about 9-26-15.
Typo Correction to Previous Post Newly numbered region is 2420 not 2450. I had just washed my hands and could not do anything with them. (Circle A in above image). The solar playing field is growing in complexity with a departing shot M1.0 flare that peaked on 9-20-15 at 1800 UTC. This time from region 2415 (Circle E) as it starts to rotate from Earth view. At this hour it is not known if a CME was created. Oval B above shows both northerly and southerly (see posts #107 and #108) filaments. Either of these two regions could separate from the solar surface at anytime. As they approach the north/south centerline, the plasma from either could be ejected towards Earth, accelerated, and mixed in the solar stream from Coronal Hole #04 (Box C above). Meanwhile, Region 2419 (Circle D) is watching all of this happen. It is still active and has a 30% chance of Class C, 5 % Class M, and a 1% chance of X-Class activity. Due to the close proximity to both the north/south and east/west center lines, this region still posses a small threat to Earth. Adding all of this up equals continued very poor HF conditions for at least the next week with the very high possibility of continued severe geomagnetic storm conditions.
The data plots are from the ACE spacecraft. The two images on the right are from the SOHO LASCO Solar Chronographs. An update to the previous post shows a CME was generated along with energetic electrons and protons. A small low energy proton event was recorded by the ACE and GOES 13 spacecraft in Earth Geosynchronous Orbit. The ACE and SOHO spacecrafts are located at the L1 Lagrange point about 1.5 million miles closer to the sun. At this hour, the Earth geomagnetic field, should begin to react at both the north and south poles. Even though the CME is not primarily moving towards Earth, the effects will be felt for hours to come. For continued information on this event: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
SDO/HMI Quick Look Continuum HMIBC-HMIIC 9-22-15 02:15:00 UTC New region 2420 is a moderate Beta/Gamma. SWPC forecaster Marshall indicates this region has a potential of C = 80%, M = 35%, X = 5%, and P = 1% flare production during the next 24 hours.
Slide 1-The STEREO A image above shows a possible Coronal Hole crossing the center line on the far side of the sun. This region if it remains stable, will be in the same relative position on the Earth side in about 16 days (10-8-15). The SDO/HMI image on the right, shows Coronal Hole (CH) 04 just to the right of the center line (small white marker). The time difference between the center line and the small white line is about 2 days (48 hours). The solar stream effects of a coronal hole take about 48 hours to reach Earth once it passes the center line depending on stream velocity. Slide 2-This GOES 13 SXI image shows both CH 04 and CH 05. There would be two streams heading in the Earth direction from these two regions. CH 04 would be directed at and slightly above Earth while CH 05 would be directed below Earth. Slide 3-These WSA ENLIL plots show another CH as it is about to rotate into Earth view (left arrows). The model seems to indicate a change in plasma strength over a 24 hour period of time (right arrows). The circles show the stream this week passing below Earth. Measurements of the new stream were derived from the STEREO A spacecraft during the first image above (Slide 1). In the latest model you can see the two streams pass above and below Earth. SWPC WSA ENLIL latest plot: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Slide 4-Both 9-24-14 SOHO LASCO C2 (11:24 UTC) and C3 (11:18 UTC) chronograph images are showing the emerging CH stream on the Eastern limb. This stream is flowing at an angle that would primarily pass below Earth about 10-1-15. Slide 5-The SDO AIA 171 9-24-15 15:09:13 UTC shows a possible small flare in this emerging region. It also appears to show some of the particles in the flare mixing in the stream. Slide 6-Region 2420 (on and left of marker line) and 2421 (right side of image) showing the changes in magnetic strength when compared to the previous post (#113).
SDO AIA 304 9-28-15 03:58:31 UTC Another parting shot from region 2423 that may have produced an M3 flare as the region rotates off the Eastern limb. To the left you can still see the large filament described in post #111. Today's solar data at 9-28-15 0225 UTC jumped to: S/N = 154, Area = 1010, 10.7 Flux = 128, GOES Flux= B6.3 There were C=14, M=2, X=0, S=46, Optical 1=1 for a total of 53 flares the past 24 hours. The largest number in several weeks.
Region 2422 as it appears this evening. ( about 13 x 7 Earth diameters <7,917.5 miles>) Area total 102,927.5 by 55,422.5 miles. This region has a chance of 25% X-Ray and 5% Proton events. GOES X-Ray back round increased to C1.0 over the past 24 hours.
SDO AIA 304 9-29-15 14:28:43, 19:28:43, 19:38:55 UTC SDO AIA 304 9-30-15 09:15:55, 09:59:07, 10:28:19 UTC The large filament mentioned in previous posts #111 and #115 let go of the solar surface over the past several hours. There are other images in this series. Region 2422 (previous post) can be seen at the lower portion of most of the image slices. The eruption was so large, that it propagated beyond the SDO telescope field of view. These composite images are low resolution to fit in this slide and save data space on the QRZ.com server. To view in higher resolution visit the SDO data page at: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
SOHO LASCO C2 9-30-15 0700 UTC ----- SOHO LASCO C3 9-30-15 0654 UTC At this time, these are the early images of the eruption in the previous post. There appears to be a great deal of particles that were blasted in all directions. Some may be Earth directed even though the event occurred on the western limb. More information will be available as the Deep Space Network communicates with the SOHO spacecraft (today's schedule below). View the images as they are processed on the SWPC web page: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph SOHO 14-day Deep Space Network schedule Created Wed 2015/09/30 10:30:06 UT WK DOY WDY DATE BOT EOT ANT --------------------------------------- 40 273 Wed 2015/09/30 01:45 - 03:00 D45 40 273 Wed 2015/09/30 05:45 - 07:05 D34 40 273 Wed 2015/09/30 13:45 - 15:50 D54 40 273 Wed 2015/09/30 22:45 - 00:05 D24
I don't think I could provide a better explanation than the experts at the SWPC as an amateur solar astronomer. This was a complicated set of events with limited available data and images. 73's Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 01 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity 24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2422 (S18W55, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced multiple C-class flares and two impulsive M1 flares, the first took place at 30/1059 UTC; the second occurred at 30/1320 UTC, with an associated optical 1n flare. Neither flare appeared to have an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). The region began to undergo a dissipation trend as it decreased in total area, however, it retained its more complex magnetic signature. Region 2427 (N18E09, Dsi/beta) grew further, but remained in a more simple bipolar configuration. Region 2420 (N12W57, Cso/beta) continued its slow decay. A prominence along the SW limb became active after 30/0700 UTC and erupted (eruptive prominence along the limb - EPL). The EPL activity occurred through about 30/1200 UTC and was evident in SDO/AIA and GONG/H-alpha imagery. The EPL was associated with a CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 30/0948 UTC. Additional CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery as part of an overarching set of coronal disruptions from the vicinity Region 2420 and stretching southward towards Region 2422, and towards the western limb. Initial analysis hints at a possible Earth-directed component, however, additional analysis continues as we await all required coronagraph imagery to properly model the CME events.
From a communications perspective, the events of the last day shake out like the above in the latest WSA-ENLIL model. A two day event from a slow moving near miss from several CME's converging at the same time. Had this occurred 6 days earlier, this would have had an entirely different outcome for Earth. The intensity at a slow speed could have damaged satellites. This was the concern the past week from the two filaments (see the oval B in post #111). Expect very poor broad spectrum communications on 10/3 and 10/4 with the possibility of unsettled conditions going into 10/5. Look for aurora activity at low latitudes with the expected hurricane Joaquin on the US East Coast all arriving about the same time. This could effect emergency response communications. Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2422 (S17W62, Fkc/beta -gamma-delta) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare, the largest of the period, at 30/1320 UTC. This region was also responsible for multiple C-class flares and several sub-faint optical flares throughout the period. It continued to decrease in total area, lost some of its leader spots, yet retained its delta magnetic signature. Region 2427 (N17E03, Dsi/beta) exhibited consolidation in its intermediate spots and slight decay in the trailer spot area. Region 2420 (N10W70, Hsx/alpha) continued its slow decay as it approached the west limb. Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery as part of an overarching set of coronal disruptions from the vicinity of Region 2420 and stretching southward towards Region 2422, and towards the western limb. Analysis of coronagraph imagery suggests a possible Earth-directed component from at least one of the CMEs, and at least a glancing blow from the others. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels early on day one (01 Oct), with unsettled to active levels by the end of the UT day, due to a slightly enhanced space environment and the possible SSBC event. Day two (02 Oct) is expected to experience quiet to active conditions, with a likely period of minor storming (G1, Minor) due to CIR and CH HSS effects, as well as the possible arrival of the 30 Sep CME. Active conditions are expected to continue into day three (03 Oct), with a likely period of minor (G1) storming again late in the day due to geomagnetic response to the CME events of 30 Sep, should they arrive late on day three.
