Update 7-7-15 0212 UTC Updated Solar Dynamics Observatory AIA 1600 image of Region 2381 this evening. The area is showing rapid growth as it rotates towards an Earth-Sun position.
Update 7-7-15 0300 UTC Reion 2381 Region 2381 is now changed from a Beta to a stronger Beta-Gamma classification. During the past 24 hours ending at 7-7-17 0000 UTC this region has produced 2 M class several C Class flares with no detected CME's at this time. The region has a surface region size of 350 millionths (see previous posts). roduct: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Jul 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity over the next three days (07-09 Jul), particularly from Region 2381. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels throughout the period (07-09 Jul).
Update 7-7-15 1315 UTC Region 2381 Updated Solar Dynamics Observatory AIA 1600 image of Region 2381 this morning 7-7-15 (11 hours from previous image). The area is showing some growth on the right (western) and decay on the left (eastern) as it rotates towards the Earth-Sun centerline (0 degrees longitude).
Sunspot Region 2381 In the above image, I have used the Earth as a ruler to measure the size of region 2381. It is being considered as a small member of the large sunspot group (see previous posts). The Earth has a diameter of about 7,926 miles (12,756 kilometers). Region 2381 is about 10 Earth's (east/west) and about 6 Earth's (north/south) in area. 79,260 X 47,556 = 3,769,288,500 square miles. This is about 350 millionths of the total Earth visible area of the sun. For the next 48 hours there is about a 45% chance of an M Class and 10% chance of an X Class SWE from this region as it approaches 0 Longitude. At 0 longitude the region is pointing directly at Earth.
Update 7-7-15 2045 UTC New Region A new region is making an entrance on the eastern limb at this hour. There seems to be no prior history for this area during the last solar rotation. It is about twice the size of Earth and located at a southerly latitude of about 20 degrees. This region may have produced a large easterly directed flare and CME on 7/6/15 at about 1400 UTC.
Update 7-8-15 1930 UTC New Region 2384 New Region was designated today as 2384 (White Circle). The above image shows the regions pathway across the sun in the coming 12 days. Region 2381 has reached the Sun/Earth center line. The region is now pointing at Earth. The cross hairs on this image are an imaginary area (Black Circle) that show the prime area of alert status. Should the region produce a flare or CME the majority of the energy would be Earth directed and slightly above. The region has reached an area of 450 millionths.
Update 7-12-15 1630 UTC New Region SDO image showing the emergence on another small sunspot just north of the solar equatorial line on the east limb this morning 7-12-15 at 1415 UTC.
Update 7-13-15 0300 UTC 1. The new region in the previous post was numbered 2386 today. 2. There were no X-Ray or Optical solar flares observed for the past 24 hours. 3. The image above is SDO HMIIC 7-17-2014 0130 UTC (1 year ago). No sunspots. This event raised concern as it occurred during the solar maximum period for Cycle 24. There are those that now believe Cycle 24 will end 2 to 3 years early and Cycle 25 may only reach a maximum smoothed sunspot count during the 11 year period of only 8. Daily sunspot counts are considered 0 if there are less than 10 of a certain size. 4. The daily sunspot count from 7-8-15 was 131. Today's count dropped to 59.
Update 7-13-15 1815 UTC The minor geomagnetic unrest over the past several hours may be attributed to a double SWE that occured over several hours on 7-10-15. In the left image above, region 2384 (white circle) produced a solar flare. During the same time period, an estimated 1 million kilometer filament erupted (Hyder Flare-white oval). The eruption started to escape the surface. Then like a giant vacuum, most of the material was absorbed near the equator on the western limb (right image). It is possible that some of this material from both flares, may have ventured in the general direction of Earth.
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Pick of the Week 7-13-15 Two solar cycles are depicted in the image above from the SOHO Observatory. Take a few minutes to enjoy the work of this remarkable observatory and staff. Pick of the Week Link http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/
STEREO Ahead Observatory Operations 7-14-15 The STEREO Ahead Observatory on the far side of the sun is returning to normal operations from the solar conjunction which started in March of 2015. The bright region on the upper left of center is old region 2371 as it appears at this hour on the far side. As you may remember from the first posts in this thread, this region created the geomagnetic activity that started over the Father's Day weekend. It is still producing SWE's. We can now watch it as it travels the back side of the sun and possibly returning to Earth view in about 12 days (7-26-15). More images and information is available from the Goddard Space Flight Center STEREO website: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Images are also available on the SWEOC.org website at: http://www.sweoc.org/
I need to correct the previous post. The area is 2381 as it transits to the far side. What remains of 2371 is now in the center of the disk. The majority of the far side is quiet. I need to keep my calendar up to date. My apologies. 73's Keith KG7QCK
A new region is appearing on the eastern limb of the sun this evening. The bottom edge of the image is very close to the solar equator. It appears to not have a strong magnetic field. It should reach the Earth-Sun center line by 8-3-15.
The image on the left was taken by the STEREO Ahead observatory located on the far side of the sun at 14:32:00 UTC 7-28-15. The image on the right was taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory seven minutes later at 14:39:31 UTC. The two spacecraft are about 190 million miles apart. Notice any similarity?
Another new sunspot region is emerging about 17 degrees north on the eastern limb in the past few hours. The image on the left is SDO AIA 171 at 7-29-15 at 14:32:00 UTC and the image on the right is SDO HMIIC 7-29-15 at 18:00:00 UTC which shows the new region as it is emerging. The SWPC Synoptic Map below shows this and the possible emergence of another region in the coming hours as two red notations in the north-eastern area. The map also shows a small Coronal Hole Region 82 on the Earth-Sun line (center) this day. The region has a negative polarity, and a confidence factor of 3 out of 4 by SWPC forecaster Patterson. The effects on the Earth from this area (if any) should be observed late on 8-1-15. Special thanks to Rob Steenburgh AD0IU at the SWPC.
