Solar Flux almost as strong than at the top of the Solar Cycle!!!

Hi Everybody;

DRAO (Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory)in Pendiction, BC has released a statement on the current rise of the solar flux to 144. (see below).
There are also unconfirmed reports that the solar radiation topped 183 for a short period of time. Even at the last solar peak the SF topped at barely below 200!
For up to date info go to DRAO website:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-4a-en.php

NOAA is still working out if there where any SME (Solar Mass Ejections) that could hit earth. Even though the clouds move very fast it will take several days before they arrive at our planet. These plasma steams are good for 6m propagation.
For the Plasma Prediction tool from NOAA go to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Note: Most of the solar flux indicators will not post these numbers because the solar flux is a average taken over a longer period of time.

Check out our website on how to monitor Space Weather with the MDSR and the RF-Seismograph.
http://users.skynet.be/myspace/mdsr/


All the best and keep your radios humming....

Alex - VE7DXW



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URANJ 22501 70904 02800 22230 14523 99999
PLAIN
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Flux Density Values in sfu for 23:00 on 2017:09:04

Julian Day Number : 2458001.447

Carrington Rotation Number : 2194.713

Observed Flux Density : 144.8

Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 147.2

URSI Series D Flux, Adj. x 0.9 : 132.5


This measurement has been derived, processed and transmitted
automatically. In case of questions, please contact us as below:

Phone : (250) 497-2300
Facsimile : (250) 497-2355
Email : ken.tapping@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca
or : andrew.gray@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca

 

I wondered what was up with the bump in condition reports over the last couple of days.

 

I've been watching it creep up also, along with the SSN.

I have been hearing a bit more propagation on 17 meters too. D2EB in Angola was hammering in here yesterday evening.

 

17 was pretty good here today.

 

15m was open too

 

Hello to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the world.

Welcome to my “not for profit” W4HM daily solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion.

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Published On Wednesday September 6, 2017 At 0100 UTC

Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Conditions On Tuesday September 4, 2017-

Solar activity was high.

Earth's geomagnetic field was at a minor geomagnetic storming level.

The three daily solar flux index (SFI) numbers were 127.4 120.5 122.6.

On Monday September 4, 2017 the daily SFI numbers were 134.0 182.5 144.8.

The 134.0 number is probably accurate with the other two readings contaminated by large solar flares. This is the highest daily SFI number in a very long time.

The official daily sunspot number (SSN) was 122.

This is the highest daily SSN in a very long time.

In 2017 officially there were 56 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of

0.

Considering that solar minimum won't occur for approximately 2 more years,

+/- 1 year, daily SSN's of 0 are occurring unusually early.

In 2016 officially there were 32 days with a daily sunspot number (SSN) of

0.

As we move forward towards the next solar minimum between solar cycle #24

and #25 the number of days with a 0 daily SSN will steadily increase.

Eventually every day for many, many, many months will see a 0, the big goose

egg.

In 2008 I forecasted solar cycle 24 to be the weakest in the past 100 years

and that forecast verified. I also forecasted that solar cycle 25 would be

virtually nonexistent, similar to the Dalton type solar minimum that

occurred in the early 1800's.

Other than sunspot magnetic polarity it will probably be very difficult to determine when solar cycle 24 ended and solar cycle 25 began.

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Officially there were 5 earth facing sun spot groups (SSG).

Sunspot group (SSG) #12673 was located near S09W15 with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a moderate in size M class solar flare and an isolated large X class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12674 was located near N13W00 with a complex beta-gamma magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a moderate in size M class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12675 was located near S06W75 with a complex beta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12676 was located near S10W64 with a complex beta magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare and an isolated moderate in size M class solar flare.

Sunspot group (SSG) #12677 was located near N17E53 with a simple alpha magnetic signature. It was capable of producing a small in size C class solar flare.

There was 1 unofficial and as of yet unnumbered earth facing sunspot group (SSG) near N10E59.

There were 8 small in size C class solar flares. The largest was a C9.8.

There were 11 medium in size M class solar flare. The largest was a M5.5.

There was 1 directly earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME). It was a full halo that should reach earth’s geomagnetic field on approximately Thursday September 7, 2017 and possibly produce moderate (Kp-6) to strong (Kp-7) geomagnetic storming conditions.

There was no partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME).

There was 1 earth aimed (geoeffective) coronal mass ejection (CME) related high and mid latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0) that occurred and could continue for several more days.

No partially earth aimed coronal mass ejection (CME) related high and mid latitude energetic proton storm >10 MeV (10+0) occurred.

The high latitude absorption is called polar cap absorption. The mid latitude absorption is caused by energetic protons spiraling down earth’s magnetic field lines into the equatorial ring current.

There was 1 earth aimed (geoeffective) solar flare related x-ray day side solar fade out (SFO) that occurred.

No directly earth aimed (geoeffective) collapsing magnetic filament eruption occurred.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of

4 3 2 2 1 2 3 4.

The 24 hour period 3 hour interval Boulder, CO K index was at active to quiet geomagnetic conditions of

4 4 2 2 2 3 4 4.

The K(p) geomagnetic indices are-

0-2- quiet

3- unsettled

4- active

5- minor geomagnetic storming

6- moderate

7- strong

8- severe

9- extreme

10- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum planetary A index (Ap) ranged between

32 and 5

which was at minor geomagnetic storming to quiet geomagnetic conditions.

The Ap geomagnetic indices are-

0-7- quiet

8-15 unsettled

16-29- active

30-49- minor geomagnetic storm

50-99- major

100-400- severe

>401- our atmosphere just got cooked off like on Mars and we are all dead.

The 24 hour period maximum energetic proton flux was at a background level >10 MeV (10+0), peaking at 210 pfu.

The 24 hour period maximum background x-ray flux was at M4.21.

The 24 hour period maximum southward swing of the vertical component (Bz) of earth's geomagnetic magnetic field was at approximately -7 nT.



The larger the negative value the further south-north that visible aurora can possibly be observed outside of the polar regions.



The 24 hour period maximum and minimum disturbance storm time index (Dst) ranged between

-36 and -10 nT.

The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between

564 and 447 km/s.

There was a recurrent medium in size directly earth facing (geoeffective) southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH) #823 (#819).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal

intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices

interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F.

Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is

allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to

see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,

something that happens rarely.



1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation

of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days

consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer

than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days

consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,

indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora

absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF

signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery

time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A

positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer

critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the

capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

12.) Galactic cosmic rays decrease to -3 units below zero and trending

towards zero.

13.) Energetic electron flux levels no greater than 2 MeV (2+0).

14. A solar wind speed of less than 300 km/s for several days consecutively.



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Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space

Environment Center, other U.S. government entities, educational institutions and private individuals, to produce my daily solar, space and geomagnetic discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

However the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2017 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

Feel free without advanced permission to redistribute this "not for profit" solar, space and geomagnetic weather discussion, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and give me credit for it.

 

Not sure why you say "unconfirmed". It was broadcast by WWV. However, this was a flare enhanced measurement. Later, when it's realized the measurement happened during a large solar flare, the value is modified to subtract the effect of the flare.

 

HI Tom;

This is really interesting.... you should get a RF_Seismograph setup for FL so you can correlate all your findings with the noise measurements that the RF-Seismograph does!

Check out our website... to set up your station for monitoring is easier than you think....

All the best;

Alex - VE7DXW

 

Please don't try to copyright your interpretations of the Sun. The Sun will strike you down in its own time! LOL!

Yes, solar-terrestrial physics are my single favorite aspect of this greatest of all hobbies. I'll check Tom's FB page and follow.

By the way, Tom, the Sun does not expect you to be accurate, you mere mortal! And unless confirmed otherwise, the Sun has not retained a lawyer! So you can relax about all of this and just have FUUUNNN !

Constant goose eggs to you, and 73!

 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-watch-6-and-7-september-2017-due-cme-arrival

 

X2.2 flare at 0910 UTC today.

 

complete block of EU signals to USA this morning.....

 

X9.3 flare at 1202 UTC. Wow!

Largest flare of Cycle 24.

 

I was working FT8 remotely. I ended a QSO on 20m and then saw ZERO signals on the band. I switched to 40 - nothing. . . 30? Nothing. I thought I fried something in my shack so I drove home to check it out. Nope, everything was fine. Thanks, solar flare!