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Solar cycle 25 prediction panel 5/4/19

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by M0YRX, Apr 6, 2019.

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  1. KM1H

    KM1H Ham Member QRZ Page

    I worked 141 "countries" and all 40 Zones on 10M during a CQ WW SSB contest during a solar peak in the 90's, I dont have the dates handy. There were several morning long path contacts over a wide area of Asia which was a first for me. Beam headings covered NE to SE from here in NH. I wasnt competing but wanted to see what was possible and was very pleasantly surprised....JA's were stacked 10 deep it seemed.

    Carl
     
    AK5B likes this.
  2. N7KO

    N7KO Ham Member QRZ Page

    OK you got a chuckle out of me, good one.
     
  3. W5MIL

    W5MIL Ham Member QRZ Page

    That's a big 10-4, good buddy!!
     
  4. KM1H

    KM1H Ham Member QRZ Page

    I would never be THAT desperate! It was bad enough being a caddy for a season at 17.


    Interesting to note that REAL scientists have already concluded that reduced sun spots have affected the upper layers of our atmosphere resulting in Global Cooling.
    Meanwhile their poorly educated opposite numbers are simply puppets on strings wildly dancing while being manipulated by the media and celebrities with already fried brains from drugs. When lawyers jump on the bandwagon you know it is a scam for making big profits.

    Volcanic activity under Greenland, Iceland, and other ice, plus under the seas melt ice and raise water temperatures.

    Carl
     
    W8VI, K4FWJ and AK5B like this.
  5. KE5XA

    KE5XA Ham Member QRZ Page

    I have had the pleasure of working with one of that tube type, it and all around it are beasts. The plate/anode of tube is vapor phase cooled meaning the kettle on top is about a quarter full and the rest of the plate is cooled by steam. Steam will carry more heat away than water. 20,000 volt plate voltage at 200 Amps Filament 16.3 volts at 640 amps. I do not want that electric bill.
     
    AK5B and N2EY like this.
  6. KM1H

    KM1H Ham Member QRZ Page

    Youre off by a factor of 10 in dissipation.
     
    K4AGO likes this.
  7. N2EY

    N2EY Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    20,000 volts at 200 amps is 4,000,000 watts. But the plate dissipation is only 20,000 watts.
     
    K4AGO likes this.
  8. N2EY

    N2EY Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    With all due respect....I think he was pulling your leg, and/or you didn't quite understand what he was saying.

    To run 25 kW on AM back in the 1920s/30s would require something like 75 kW or more from the power line. In those days a 60 amp service was pretty standard, which is less than 15 kW. Running 200 kW is 8 times that power.

    Somebody running that kind of superpower would have gotten the FRC's attention really fast back then.

    The top AM BC stations ran 50 kW. Only WLW got permission to run 500 kW, and the installation was.....legendary.

    OTOH, in those days, it was possible to run a couple of kW and not be too obvious about it.
     
    AK5B likes this.
  9. N4DWD

    N4DWD XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    In my observation the problem isn't so much propagation as it is participation. I've noticed during contests for some reason the "conditions" seem to get better as the bands become crowded, but ordinary day to day you don't hear much going on. This is true especially on 20m. On the last major contest 20 meter was crowded.
     
    WD4IGX, KJ4NOO and AK5B like this.
  10. AL7PX

    AL7PX Ham Member QRZ Page

    Nobody talks anymore, they type.
     
    VK6APZ/SK2022 and AK5B like this.
  11. KQ6XA

    KQ6XA Ham Member QRZ Page

    • Q: How similar is the prediction of The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel in April 2019 to The HF Oracle Prognostication from September 2018?
    • A: Nearly identical.

    It looks like they copied it from the HF Oracle :)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Quatrains of the High Frequency Oracle in 2018


    Solaris Minima, saucio Mega Hertzus;
    Solaris Maximus, Radiati Potentius!
    Rogo deam salum aqua te Amplificos,
    Altus Frequencius, Ionospheri Reflec tus!

    Mors ad solaris ad minima,
    Nunc transibo ergo vallis solaris,
    Dum radiis sol sunt infirma!
    In futuris spectare debes!

    Temporis telescopiorum! Futura praedicere!
    Sol Ex Observatorio maga denuncio:
    Ego sum Oraclum ad templi ex ionosphere.
    Sal positus sum super altare is caelo.

    Exspectamus fulsere solaris ignes,
    Incantabo magicae autem solaris!
    Quod augur Sororibus inspecto es sol discus.
    Quid futurum adducere? Que videtis?

    Est anno MMXVIII et, hodie quoque annuntian:
    Quia sol est austero duo annis magis,
    Quinquennium ab hodie, sol et apicum.
    Ego praedicate nuntius anno duo milia viginti tres!

    Et apicem in solem a super verticem montis,
    Numero centum viginti erit, ex sol macula.
    Quia non promitto, alta-frequencia a maximus,
    Sed, certe, magnetismus protegens planeta nostra.

    Est scriptum in manus maga.
    Illa cantata carmina curati nos.
    Femina dicitur ad frequencia!
    Numquam locutus est malum preces.

    Undecim annis expectorum prophetiae ad novam,
    Quoniam, undecim annis ab hodie, sol et austero.
    Longo vivas tempore et bene sit. Aeternum!
    Sit vis vobiscum et bene vitae custodio.


    Roughly translated into English:

    Solar minimum, the MegaHertz are wounded!
    Solar Maximum, the radiation is powerful!
    I call upon goddess of the Salt Water Amplifier,
    Oh, high frequency ionosphere, reflect us!

    Death to the solar minimum,
    We cross the Valley of the Sun.
    While the sun is weak,
    We peer into our future.

    Time Telescope! Predict the future!
    From the Solar Observatory, the witch announces:
    I am the Oracle at The Temple of the Ionosphere,
    I hereby make a salt offering to the ionosphere!

    We look at the solar flares;
    We invoke the magic solar encantations!
    The Sisters Of Prescience study the sun's disk,
    Asked about the future: What do they see?

    It is the year 2018, and today, I declare
    The sun will be bleak for two more years;
    Five years from today, the sun will peak.
    I proclaim: This a message about year 2023!

    At the peak of next sun on top of the mountain,
    Cycle 25 sunspot number will peak at 120.
    I do not promise the high frequencies will be great,
    But, at least the magnetic field will shield our planet.

    It was written by her hands.
    She chanted the verses.
    She called for the bands!
    Never spoke evil curses.

    In 11 years from now, we will make another prophecy;
    For we will dwell in a solar minimum again eleven years from today.
    Live long, and prosper. Forever!
    May the force be with you, and watch over you.

    ... and thus it was written in September of 2018.
     
    KI6TSF, VA7UW and AK5B like this.
  12. K4AGO

    K4AGO Ham Member QRZ Page

    I'll turn you both in because NOT "anything is legal until you get caught." Ham radio is an honest and ethical self policed sport. CB radio is a see what you can get by with sport.
    John
    K4AGO
     
    KA1BSZ and AK5B like this.
  13. KM1H

    KM1H Ham Member QRZ Page

    In the 20's to early 30's grid or Heising modulation was used so there was little added strain on the AC mains compared to full bore Class B AM. Efficiency was in the 30% area so a 25KW INPUT resulted in around 7500W to the antenna which isnt all that much; about 10dB over a 750W output rig which was/is a typical Class C efficiency for 1000W input.

    Class B audio was developed in 1933 and took awhile to catch on in the ham world

    12-29-1933
    Application filed by RCA Corp

    12-10-1935
    Application granted


    The later 500KW final at WLW was a linear amp driven by the 50KW transmitter/Class B modulator. Earlier attempts at Class B to that amp resulted in lots of smoke and blown modulator transformers.
     
  14. KA1BSZ

    KA1BSZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    well..go ahead.be our guest.
     
  15. KA1BSZ

    KA1BSZ Ham Member QRZ Page

    I've noticed that...even at work....everyone texts...even when they are sitting right next to each other.
     

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