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NZ4O HF/6M Radiowave Propagation Forecast #2012-15

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by W4HM, Apr 7, 2012.

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  1. W4HM

    W4HM Ham Member QRZ Page

  2. WK5X

    WK5X Ham Member QRZ Page

    Looking at Cycle 24 overall, it is a disappointment. Based upon the Aussie's "T-Index", (which I wasn't even aware of until reading K7RA's solar update this weekend), we're on the downside of the cycle already ( This index peaked in November 2011 at 103. Looking at previous cycles, In Cycle 19, the index was higher than the peak of the current cycle for 55 months running. During the next four cycles, this holds true for slightly shorter periods of time.

    But it's not as if we can do anything about it.
  3. KB0KYV

    KB0KYV Ham Member QRZ Page

    Don't believe everything you read.
  4. VE7TJL

    VE7TJL Ham Member QRZ Page

    Careful... All of the numbers on the decline side are predictions.. If you look at the previous cycles it's pretty common to have some highs and lows in the cycles. The predictions definitely don't follow the pattern.

    We'll just have to wait and see.
  5. WK5X

    WK5X Ham Member QRZ Page

    Yes, that's true. There will be spikes in solar activity. But when you compare a graphs of Cycle 24 against Cycles 19-23, it is like comparing the Himalayas to the Appalachians.
  6. W2JRL

    W2JRL XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    The graphs spanning the last three hundred years seem to show a longer, 100 year-or-so cycle, and it appears to me that we *may be* looking at several decades of cycle peaks below an daily average of 100.

    "If you think you that can, or that you cannot, you're right." - Henry Ford
  7. W2JRL

    W2JRL XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    double post
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2012
  8. W1YW

    W1YW Subscriber QRZ Page

    This cycle is deep doodoo. Ugh.

    Chip W1YW
  9. N2MDA

    N2MDA Ham Member QRZ Page

    I remember in the previous cycle (23) driving to work in the morning and being in QSO with my friends in England and Ireland, with signals at S9 or better on a daily basis. I ran a little Uniden HR 2510 at a mighty 25 watts and a fiberglass whip for 10 meters. Lots of worldwide DX to be found. Australia in the evening was common too. In this cycle, there's not much to be had on 10 meters. 17 and 20 seem to be carrying most of the contacts. Cycle 24 is going to be known as "THE SUNSPOT CYCLE FROM HELL"
  10. W4HM

    W4HM Ham Member QRZ Page

    Solar Cycle 24 Peak?

  11. K3DNF

    K3DNF Ham Member QRZ Page

    All very interesting and useful in planning my radio activities.
    If they predict excellent conditions, I will be on my radio trying to make as many contacts as I can.
    If they predict poor conditions, then in that case, I will be on my radio trying to make as many contacts as I can!

  12. WK5X

    WK5X Ham Member QRZ Page

    You might be right; the peak may not be here yet. Nonetheless, I think we're looking at fleeting F2 openings at 50 MHz at best, almost all on north/south paths. And the polar openings last fall on 10 Meters will not likely re-occur, unless there is a similar spike during an equinoctial period. The current equinoctial period is a waste on 28 MHz.

    However, 17 Meters has been impressive during the last week over the poles.
  13. KK1S

    KK1S Ham Member QRZ Page

    The sun is estimated to be 4.5 billion years old. We've been "studying" it for less than 200. Enough said?
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