New Hope for the Coming Cycle | Space Weather News 07.12.2019

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KB7TBT, Jul 12, 2019.

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  1. W7TJ

    W7TJ Ham Member QRZ Page

    Entertaining...but the nice little video has not really told us a thing. Book smart but not street wise as many of us have had 50 + years of operating and solar cycle experience. Here is a better recap:

    First I wrote an article for E ham net September of 2014 Titled: "Preparing for the Propagation Winter" The reality of this is upon us. As this Link summarizes, there have been no sunspots of significance for 2 Months. ( we went for 55 consecutive days July/August of 2008 & now that has been surpassed ) Even though there are tiny tiny sunspots using "higher resolution " :) the solar flux has hardly budged from the high sixties. The driving force behind this is the lack of size, strength, and magnetic complexity of sunspots that has been on the decline since 1995 and is now such that what few sunspots that do form are not strong enough to make significant increases in the solar flux ( cycle 24 or 25. ) <Google search the Livingston and Penn studies> The author of this article is correct in that many forecasters do not want to face the implications of what is in store. There are three possible outcomes:

    1. We could see a definite bottom of cycle 24 and a
    QUICK start to cycle 25 with Large Strong high l
    latitude reverse polarity sunspots and be on our
    way to a Super Cycle. The probability of this is
    VERY LOW.

    2. We could see a long extended drawn out low similar
    to the period between cycle 23 and 24 thus ushering
    in cycle 25 that would be a mere fraction of a
    shadow of cycle 24. ( Historically one very low
    cycle will usually be followed by 1 to 2 other
    very low cycles.)

    3. Sunspots could abruptly vanish, ushering in a Dalton
    or God forbid - Maunder Minimum.

    Scenarios 2 and 3 are the most likely- which one manifests itself ...time will tell. Grand Solar minimums have occurred in the past, however no one is alive to remember them. One of the most chilling things was mentioned in an article posted some time ago on E Ham Net stating that we as Radio Amateurs have had the benefit of experiencing one of the highest longest periods of solar activity 1950 to 2009 - nothing as we all know lasts forever. Strong Sunspot cycles will eventually return.... most likely not in our Ham Radio Lifetimes.

    Randy W7TJ
     
  2. AA9NN

    AA9NN Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    You got Boris now!!
     
  3. DL8NBM

    DL8NBM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    yes, sun, make fast, I'm 75 years old. I want to experience DX, hi
     
  4. W4HM

    W4HM XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    I vote for #2 or #3 and think that #3 will win out.:(
     
  5. WA9UAA

    WA9UAA Ham Member QRZ Page

    I thought it was bad when the SFI went below 100. Spend as much time on 75M or 160M if you can, granted those are winter time bands but August is upon us.
    73,
    Rob
     
  6. KH6DC

    KH6DC Ham Member QRZ Page

    Same here! Friends tell me back then you could work the world with 50 watts into a dummy load.
     
  7. WD4IGX

    WD4IGX Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Not quite but I was very active in the late 70s and early 80s. 10 meters was open for DX most of the day and into the evening, 15 well into the the night, and 20 often around the clock. I could work anyone I could hear on CW with an Argonaut 509 (2W output) into a folder dipole. Fun times!

    Even in those times an Argonaut and folded dipole could be frustrating on SSB, however. I had no problems at all working all over Europe from my friend's station with HIS Argonaut and 3 el tribander at 40' though. (He had amps, but even at 2W it was easy to talk to stations all over Europe.)
     
  8. K0OLD

    K0OLD Premium Subscriber QRZ Page

    Well, I appreciate your input on the solar Sunspots. I sure hope they get here soon. Looking forward to some nice DX finally.
     

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