A Stormy Solar Minimum : Solar Storm Forecast 08-18-2018

Discussion in 'Amateur Radio News' started by KB7TBT, Aug 19, 2018.

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  1. KB7TBT

    KB7TBT XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    A Stormy Solar Minimum : Solar Storm Forecast 08-18-2018

     
    WA6YPV, KF7ZEB, DL7LPH and 3 others like this.
  2. WW5JS

    WW5JS Ham Member QRZ Page

    Text version?
     
    DL2ASG and W6ERM like this.
  3. W2WDX

    W2WDX Ham Member QRZ Page

  4. WW5JS

    WW5JS Ham Member QRZ Page

  5. N5LB

    N5LB XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    very informative. tnx
     
    N0OU likes this.
  6. N1RCX

    N1RCX Ham Member QRZ Page

    Great reporting. I thought i was listening to a CBS westher woman. Hihi 73s
     
  7. W4HM

    W4HM Ham Member QRZ Page

    Greetings to my fellow hamateur radio and SWL radio enthusiasts around the
    world.

    Welcome to my “not for profit” daily W4HM Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation
    Forecast.

    It’s the only daily global HF radio wave propagation forecast produced on
    the planet.

    I'm a retired heliophysicist, terrestrial meteorologist/climatologist,
    physical oceanographer and one of the few on the planet with advanced
    education and forecast experience in all aforementioned disciplines. In
    terrestrial weather forecasting I have 45 years of experience and in solar,
    space and geomagnetic weather forecasting 34 years.

    Created and disseminated by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM in Lakeland, FL, USA ©
    1988-2018.

    If you find this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast useful to your
    hamateur and SWL radio activities, feel free to drop me a line and let me
    know that at

    thomasfgiella@gmail.com

    I enjoy hearing from likeminded fellow radio enthusiasts.

    Hams and SWLs that are interested in solar, space & geomagnetic weather as
    well as radio wave propagation are a special group of people interested in
    broadening their knowledge in science.

    Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
    propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
    give me credit for it.

    Supporting images associated with this daily HF radio wave propagation
    forecast can be found in my Facebook account at

    https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

    and in my Twitter account at

    https://twitter.com/GiellaW4hm

    Last but not least here is my new HF radio wave propagation web page where
    you can sign up to receive this daily HF radio wave propagation forecast via
    email. https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast but without
    supporting images.

    It's a NO SPAM voluntary "opt" in email type group hosted by Groups.io, so
    you have to sign up by using an existing email address and creating a
    password.

    W4HM Solar Cycle 24 Update and Solar Cycle 25 Forecast- Short and to the
    point.

    Solar minimum may begin later this year and may last longer than any
    previous solar cycle in the 20th century. When solar cycle 25 finally gets
    underway it could be the weakest since the middle of the 19th century.
    Another Dalton type lesser grand solar minimum may occur with a
    corresponding cooling of earth’s climate. This would negate anthropogenic
    climate change if it were occurring which it isn’t.

    On February 1, 2008 I forecasted that solar cycle 24 would be the smallest
    solar cycle in the past 100 years. That forecast verified. I also forecasted
    that solar cycle 25 would be almost non nonexistent.

    #230 Issued Sunday August 19, 2018 at 1430 UTC

    Important Solar, Space & Geomagnetic Weather Indices-

    Solar activity was low.

    The daily solar flux index numbers (DSFI) were 68.2 67.2 66.4

    There had been 14 consecutive days with a 2000 UTC daily solar flux index
    number (DSFI) less than 70.

    The official daily sunspot number (DSSN) was 25.

    There had been 5 consecutive days with an official daily sunspot number
    (DSSN) of greater than 0.

    Earth facing sunspot group #12718 located near S07W02, with a simple alpha
    magnetic signature capable of releasing a very, very small A class solar
    flare.

    A newly emerged earth facing sunspot group #12719 located near S06E50, with
    a relatively simple beta magnetic signature capable of releasing a very
    small B class solar flare.

    In 2018 there had been 132 days with an official daily sunspot number (DSSN)
    of 0.

    The 24 hour period 3 hour interval planetary K index (Kp) had been at an
    unsettled to quiet geomagnetic condition of 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 2.

    The 24 hour period planetary A index (Ap) maximum and minimum values ranged
    between 18 & 4.

    The 24 hour period maximum and minimum solar wind speed ranged between 555 &
    448 km/s.

    Global Daily HF Radio Wave Propagation Forecast-

    HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 19 2018- steady.

    HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 20, 2018- minor
    deterioration.

    HF radio wave propagation condition “trend” on Aug 21, 2018- minor to
    moderate deterioration.

    Northern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

    3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
    at day,

    6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
    S4-7 at day,

    13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
    night and S3-4 at day,

    21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

    24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

    28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

    We are now firmly in the summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
    propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
    most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

    During the northern hemisphere summer season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
    range closes later due to more sun light illuminating the ionosphere than in
    the southern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is lower
    than in the southern hemisphere as heating in the F2 layer of the ionosphere
    is higher and the layer less concentrated.

    Almost daily during the northern hemisphere summer season you will find that
    the 25600- 26100 kHz and 28000-30000 kHz frequency ranges will open via
    short north-south and east-west propagation paths via sporadic E (Es). Also
    when multiple sporadic E (Es) clouds form and line up favorably much longer
    propagation paths open up on east-west paths. And last but not least
    north-south propagation paths occur across the equator via trans equatorial
    propagation (TEP).

    Southern Hemisphere Radio Wave Propagation Forecast b-

    3150-3400, 3500-4100, 4750-5050, 5700-6300 kHz- S9 +1 to 9 at night and S1-3
    at day,

    6900-7800, 9200-9995, 10000-10150, 11500-12200 kHz- S9+ 1 to 9 at night and
    S4-7 at day,

    13570-13850, 14000-14350, 15005-15900, 17450-17950, 18068-18168 kHz- S0 at
    night and S3-4 at day,

    21000-21850 kHz- S0 at night and S1-2 at day,

    24890-24990, 25600-26100 kHz- S0 at night and S1 at day,

    28000-29700 kHz- S0 at night and S0 at day.

    We are now firmly in summer/winter solstice type of HF radio wave
    propagation conditions. Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are
    most unbalanced across the equator during this time period.

    During the southern hemisphere winter season the 14000- 30000 kHz frequency
    range closes sooner due to less sun light illuminating the ionosphere than
    in the northern hemisphere. But the maximum usable frequency (MUF) is higher
    than in the northern hemisphere as the F2 layer of the ionosphere is lower
    in height and more concentrated.

    This HF Radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the SIGINT_CAP
    HF radio wave propagation prediction software. I wrote it beginning in the
    late 1980’s but I’m sorry to say that it can’t be distributed to the general
    public. It does outperform VOA CAP.

    And though this HF radio wave propagation forecast is produced based on the
    SIGINT_CAP software, I do check the actual band conditions at my location in
    the USA and tweak the forecast manually where and when necessary.

    I also check global HF radio wave propagation conditions via remoted radio
    receivers on every continent of the globe and tweak the forecast manually if
    and when necessary.

    And last but not least I look at ionsonde stations on every continent of the
    globe.

    The hamateur radio JT65A mode RF signal levels received are based on 5 watts
    and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

    The hamateur radio PSK31 mode RF signal levels received are based on 25
    watts and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

    The hamateur radio CW mode RF signal levels received are based on 50 watts
    and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

    The hamateur radio SSB RF mode signal levels received are based on 100 watts
    and ½ wave dipole up at 40 feet.

    The HF shortwave broadcast band AM Mode RF signal levels are based on
    100,000 watts (100 kw) and a typical high gain VOA type curtain array
    antenna.

    Please keep in mind that this is a relatively simplified HF radio wave
    propagation forecast, so as to keep it easily understandable and applicable
    by the average radio enthusiast.

    Globally HF radio wave propagation conditions are most evenly balanced
    during the fall and spring equinoxes and most diametrically opposed during
    the summer and winter solstices.

    Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
    sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
    ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
    maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
    critical frequency (FoF2). Also by propagation path.

    The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
    absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
    propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

    Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
    static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
    mostly bad.

    Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
    wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

    Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
    negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency
    (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to
    geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 &
    greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of
    the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D
    layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves,
    elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton
    flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

    Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a
    negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a
    particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and
    also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 &
    greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0)
    background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux
    at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

    GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL
    HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

    NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal
    intellectual property. Therefore the radio wave propagation indices
    interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2018 by Thomas F.
    Giella, W4HM, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is
    allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

    All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
    see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
    something that happens rarely.

    1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

    2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

    3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
    of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

    4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
    consecutively are best.

    5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
    than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

    6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

    7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
    consecutively, greater than C1 best.

    8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

    9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
    indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
    absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
    signals, when the Kp is above 3.

    10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
    time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
    positive number is best.

    Standard Disclaimer-

    Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space
    Environment Center, other U.S. government entities and educational
    institutions, to produce this daily HF radio wave propagation
    forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using
    taxpayer $$$ (including mine).

    However this daily HF propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW
    public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this
    daily HF radio wave propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted ©
    1988-2018 by Thomas F. Giella, W4HM.

    Feel free without prior permission to redistribute this daily HF radio wave
    propagation forecast, as long as you redistribute it in its entirety and
    give me credit for it.

    Also HF radio wave propagation forecasting is still an inexact
    science and therefore also an art. The forecasts are not official but for
    educational and hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error
    and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
     
    W2CSI likes this.
  8. K3FHP

    K3FHP XML Subscriber QRZ Page

    Very interesting. I have been a student of propagation for over five decades and have found current real or near real time propagation evaluation more helpful than predictions. A look at WSPRnet(either passively of better active player) will tell you with better certainty, I believe, than any prediction software and the now ubiquitous FT8,(more common now than JT or psk), is good as well, taking note of the s/n difference related to your mode of interest. E skip on the other hand just happens when it happens...for as long as it happens, kinda like VHF Tropo. I always wonder though, without a magnetosphere or that much atmosphere, what would propagation be like on Mars? Thanks Tom for the work and info....the opportunity for science is one of my favorite activities in ham radio.
     
    N0OU and W4HM like this.
  9. K5CO

    K5CO Ham Member QRZ Page

    Somebody please bring me up to 'speed': is this 'person' a bot?
     
  10. W5LMM

    W5LMM Platinum Subscriber Platinum Subscriber QRZ Page

    She's hot. enjoy the video.
     
    N0CEL likes this.

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