From spaceweather.com: Issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, the official forecast calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025. However, a better fit to current data shows Solar Cycle 25 peaking in October 2024. This is just outside the 8-month error bars of the Panel's forecast. July 2021 was a remarkable month. Solar Cycle 25 crossed multiple thresholds, including its first X-flare and, at one point, 6 sunspots on the solar disk. The last time so many sunspots were seen at the same time was Sept. 2017.
And my predictions are for a crazy wide spread double peak. Check out the photo above - almost nothing in the northern hemisphere. It will lag behind the south by a few years. Double peak = longer cycle activity, lower smoothed sunspot numbers. Cycle 24 would have been 50% higher if the peaks had lined up.
The SFI remains at historical lows for the (now 1 year plus) onset of a new cycle. SFI's in the 70s are essentially feeble for the HF bands. Today, for example, the SFI is 73. Yuk. I keep on saying I will get the rig up and crackin when the SFI hits 95+. Which it did for a few hours a month ago:-( Yes, I will expect the usual comments about there is lots of DX around, but let's get real: poor conditions shouldn't suggest the anecdotes when we are looking for the trend Your opinion may differ. 73 Chip W1YW
I am definitely excited about the cyclical changes coming to the bands, HOWEVER... Forecast, Schmorecast! I did mobile HF during the 2009 minimum, and hit VK land from New Hampshire with 100w while driving on Rt. 3 in Nashua... Just get on the air, the ether may surprise you. 73 de KA1YBS
"Yep - that's a fine looking piece of candy. No question. But I don't believe the sugar content is high enough yet so I'm just going to wait a bit longer before I taste it again" Dave W7UUU
I know it sounds cynical. It's just that there is so much on FT8 now, and so little DX prop otherwise for CW and SSB, that I don't want to feel discouraged when getting OTA. I am sure at least some others feel that way. Wish I didn't. Nothing an SFI of 100+ won't fix! 73 Chip W1YW
Last week there was two massive releases on the other side of the sun. Once they rotated into view the areas were quiet. Don't know how long our luck will hold as the current sheet passes through. I do notice that propagation is fickle in comparison to earlier cycles and with our weakening magnetic field it may be hard to judge in the future. If your not up on the latest science take a gander at https://www.youtube.com/user/Suspicious0bservers/videos Whatever happens with this cycle it will be interesting.
Really? They have been published and feature published scientists worldwide including Nasa. I guess anything that disagrees with your worldview is crackpot. Can you tell me how you qualified that in less than 20 minutes? That is a trick many would find useful.
https://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Ben_Davidson From Source Watch: QUOTE: "Ben Davidson created Suspicious Observers (Suspicious0bservers), a pseudoscience YouTube channel. An ex-lawyer, Davidson has no science training. He has a degree in economics from Denison University and a Juris Doctorate from Capital University Law School. Davidson's ideas have been debunked by climate scientists. He is behind various websites where he sells his scribblings and tickets to his "annual conference".[1] Davidson makes far-fetched claims about dozens of scientists attending his conferences and conversing secretly with him, but there has only been one notable name at any of his meetings — John Coleman, another notable climate denier. In summary, this man and his followers are delusional." UNQUOTE Davidson also runs www.spaceweathernews.com which prominently features a "Disaster Prediction App" on its front page.
Want to know what propagations like exactly where you are ? Just fire up the rig and spin the dials and unless your setup is faulty you will find out in very short order. Some people go out every day whatever the weather forecast and know exactly what it's like - works with Ham Radio as well . I'm actually enjoying the low propagation but variable conditions as it makes you work for you contacts - good conditions seems to mean an excuse for unruly and poor behaviour from some stations ? 73
LOL. Yeah great reference My turn... https://www.acsh.org/news/2017/04/0...piracy-theorists-run-lawyer-lisa-graves-11093 You partisan hacks are truly hopeless.
Please keep the topic on the solar cycle and not conspiracy discussions regarding other things. No further posts/retorts on that topic please. This is the "Amateur Radio News" forum Thanks Dave W7UUU
