A New Active Region Brightens the Sun for Easter: Solar Storm Forecast 03-29-2018

A New Active Region Brightens the Sun for Easter: Solar Storm Forecast 03-29-2018

 

Thank you Tabatha, you do a great job, and make it so that we can understand it
Rob VE6XMB

 

I like her presentation. Professional, informative, ENTERTAINING (!) and concise!

 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 March - 21 April 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 26-28, 30-31 March and 01-02, 12-21
April. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the rest of the
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 26 March and 12 April with active periods likely on 26,
29-30 March, and 11-15, 19, 21 April due to effects from multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the
remainder of the outlook period.

 

It's Tamitha, but otherwise, I agree!

 

Very fun; thanks
w7phg

 

GOOD LUCK

 

Great information Tabatha keep up the good work

 

It is the first time I see such a presentation on propagation. Well done, great work in the exposure of data and forecasts, congratulations and thanks for the info.
Joe I8QJU

 

I love this type of solar reporting. Well presented, I would say. Patrick, K6PFG.

 

Excellent. Put all together propagation forecasts are useful.

 

Some explanations.

Conditions change daily, weekly, monthly, yearly and by decade, as the
sun rises and sets at different times and at different angles from the
ecliptic, as well as by radio wave frequency. This is due to changes in the
maximum usable frequency (MUF), lowest usable frequency (LUF) and F layer
critical frequency (FoF2).

The D and E layers also come into play through RF radio wave signal
absorption and refraction. And then there is sporadic E (Es) radio wave
propagation that can really throw a wrench into the gears so to speak.

Things like sporadic E (Es) radio wave propagation and lightning storm
static can impact HF radio wave propagation in an unpredictable manner and
mostly bad.

Ongoing solar, space and geomagnetic weather goings on also impact HF radio
wave propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Lower high frequency (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not so much by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms (Kp-5 & greater) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer RF signal absorption due to hard x-rays, galactic cosmic waves, elevated background solar flux levels greater than B0 and energetic proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to elevated geomagnetic conditions (Kp-3-4), storms of Kp-5 & greater. Also D layer RF signal absorption due to elevated (greater than B0) background solar flux levels. Also to a lesser extent elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

All 14 of the following indices have to occur as described below in order to
see the best global high frequency radio wave propagation possible,
something that happens rarely.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic field indices numbers are better, Kp of 0 best.

2.) A daily sunspot number of 150 or higher, 200 or higher best.

3.) A daily sunspot number of greater than 100 for routine stable formation
of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days
consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer
than 2 for high latitude paths, 0 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels greater than B1 for several days
consecutively, greater than C1 best.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign,
indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path aurora
absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -10 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A
positive number is best.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, W4HM
Lakeland, FL, USA

https://groups.io/g/w4hmradiowavepropagationforecast
https://www.facebook.com/thomasfranklingiellaw4hm

 

Wonderful!!! love hearing that the higher bands are going to get active again.

 

Finally, a video that written in English like explains in plan language what’s going on with the sun. Thank you! aF5U

 

We'll take what we can get...