Hurricanes and Tropical Storms are still in the news. Both the Atlantic and Pacific are seeing these storms develop late in the 2015 season. Alex is the first hurricane to form during January in the Atlantic since 1938. The hurricane season for 2016 starts in June. Visit the US Naval Observatory-Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the latest images and data for the Pacific region. Image: NHC 1-14-16 1300 EST NOAA-NWS NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ USNO JTWC: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
I will be in the center of the hurricane, the central group of the Azores (Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa and Terceira). So far 01H10 UTC nothing much. It will hit us at 07H00 UTC. Let's hope conditions will change for the best. 73 de Eloy CU3AK
Good luck and stay safe tonight Eloy. I just watched on the evening news a story about this storm reaching you. 73's Keith KG7QCK Azores Latest Satellite Image Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/flash-rb.html
Hope all is well there, looks like the storm lost some intensity but still a large storm. Please let us know how you fared.
Image: USNO JTWC 1-15-16 1800 Z WTPS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (VICTOR) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 14.6S 166.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
Hi all, Fortunately the eye of the hurricane turned away 28kms south west from us. We only had strongs winds and rain, normal storm for us in the Azores. Some minor damaged. Due of the hurricane a person died in Flores island beacause was not possible to do evacuation by helicopter to the main hospital in Terceira island. Besides all we were very lucky. 73 and thanks to all to your concern CU3AK Eloy
Image: USNO JTWC 1-20-16 1200 Z WTXS21 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9S 77.9E TO 19.1S 73.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 77.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 77.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 77.0E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING ON THE PERIPHERY. PREVIOUS ASCAT DATA CONFIRM AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS (25-30 KTS) ON BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC PRODUCING STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 C SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT AND DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211500Z.// NNNN
Update to previous post: WTXS31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CORENTIN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0816web.txt
Image Image: USNO JTWC 2-20-16 0600 UTC Region: Fiji Islands WTPS31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 17.4S 178.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
GOES West WV 3-17-16 12:00:00 UTC Emergency Managers are watching the progress of this weather system as it approaches the west coast of the US. NOAA Data Buoy's should be reporting conditions over the coming hours and days. Satellite data indicates very strong winds and high seas. National Data Buoy Center: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ SWEOC.org SatMaps http://www.sweoc.org/GoesSat.html http://www.sweoc.org/NOAA_Water_Vapor.html
2016 Hurricane Season Forecast Calls For Near-Average Activity in the Atlantic The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast released Thursday from Colorado State University calls for the number of named storms and hurricanes to be near historical averages. A total of 12 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricane are expected this season, according to the forecast prepared by CSU, which is headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach in consultation with long-time hurricane expert Dr. William Gray. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2016-hurricane-season-forecast-atlantic-colorado-state-csu
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 302336 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located about 950 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week as the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NOAA-NWS NHS 7-2-16 2100 MDT 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030237 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016 The deep convection associated with the area of low pressure well southwest of Manzanillo has become much better organized during the past 6 to 12 hours, and this system is now classified as a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery shows a large convective canopy with multiple curved bands. The estimated center position is near the eastern edge of the deep convection and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant moisture. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Sunday and becoming a hurricane on Monday. The system is expected to peak in intensity in 3 to 4 days near major hurricane strength before gradual weakening begins as the center moves over progressively cooler waters. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus and close to a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 given the recent formation of the system. The dominant steering mechanism through the forecast period will be the western periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States. This pattern should guide the cyclone on a general westward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days. Most of the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the GFDL model, which is well to the right. There is some along-track spread between the generally slower GFS model and the faster ECMWF and HWRF through much of the period. The across-track spread increases in 4-5 days with the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean showing more of a poleward turn as they erode the ridge more, while the ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and UKMET have a stronger ridge and more westward motion. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of these two camps through the forecast period and is of about average confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
NOAA-NWS NHC 7-2-16 2000 PDT 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 030233 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022016 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016 Recent SSMIS microwave data indicate that Agatha has a nearly closed ring of convection around a mid-level center, but the overall coverage of cold cloud tops has decreased significantly since the previous advisory. A new burst of convection is, however, developing near Agatha's center. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain T2.5, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. There is still a little room for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so while the vertical shear is low and sea surface temperatures are around 26C. The shear increases after 24 hours, and along with colder waters and a drier atmosphere, these factors should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days and dissipate by day 4. This forecast is unchanged from the previous NHC official intensity forecast. Agatha appears to have accelerated a bit, with an initial motion of 295/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should maintain Agatha on a west-northwestward heading for the next 36 hours, followed by a turn toward the west by 48 hours. The track model envelope has shifted northward on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has also been pushed in that direction, although not as far north as the GFS and not as far west as the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.6N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.4N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.2N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.1N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 19.3N 133.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
USNO Portal 7-8-16 040 UTC https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/ep0416.gif WTPN31 PHNC 080400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E (FOUR) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 111.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 111.5W Latest GOES Water Vapor Composite http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/rb-animated.gif
