This SDO image is showing the end of a flare from newly numbered region 2434 and a filament eruption in the north eastern quadrant that started in the minutes preceding the image time stamp. The filament appears to have stretched to the far side. More on these events as additional imaging becomes available.
Left Image: SDO AIA IMSAL 1600 PFSS 10-13-15 16:16:16 UTC Right Image: GOES 13 SXI PTHNA 0.4s 10-13-15 23:15:00 UTC Potential-Field Source-Surface (PFSS) magnetic wave models show magnetic flux lines in the coronal field of the sun. When compared to the GOES SXI soft X-Ray image these lines highlight the large coronal hole CH #12 & CH #14 (bottom edge of CH #12). The new region just south of the eastern horizon is complex and extends to the far side. Just above this area to the north is new CH #15 (GOES image). The new region in the previous posts has been numbered 2434 and has a M = 65% and a C= 20% chance of flares in the day ahead. Daily SSN = 58. This region appears to have already ejected material in the HSS now rotating into view and forecast to effect Earth starting 10-17 UT. For more information about PFSS waves visit the National Solar Observatory - Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) website: http://gong.nso.edu/science/gongpfss/gongpfss.html
Left Image: SDO AIA 304 10-16-17 12:59:19 UTC Right Image: SDO HMI QLC 10-16-17 13:00:00 UTC Old region 2422 announces its' own arrival in the past few minutes. It appears to have split into two parts. The second half should become visible within the next day (See previous posts #122 and #132). The solar equator is at the top of both images. Region 2434 is at the right in both images. Old 2422 should become 2435 later today. This could be the third visit of this region to our view (old regions 2418 and 2422). Old Coronal Hole CH #10 visible in post #122 is now CH #15 on the equator.
SDO HMI QLC 10-16-15 22:15:00 UTC <year is corrected from previous post> White line is equator. It appears old region 2420 has returned (upper arrow of image). Should be numbered 2436. Lower region (arrow) is now numbered 2435 that has a 60% chance of C class and 20 % chance of M class activity. (see previous post). Region 2439 (lower right) has an 85% chance of C class, 45 % chance of M class, and a 5% chance of an X class event.
SDO AIA HMI IMSAL 10-18-15 10:00:00 to 11:00:00 UTC This composite of SDO images shows the emergency of another region on the south eastern limb (arrow). This new region may become 2437 later today. In the four images on the left, you can see the magnetic interaction between the northern and southern groups (positive and negative). The arcs are about 500,000 kilometers in distance. These groups will reach the Earth-Sun centerline by 10-23. With a weaker than expected HSS the effects on Earth will change.
Left Image: SDO AIA 171 10-22-15 15:56:47 UTC Right Image: SDO HMI QLM 10-22-15 15:45:00 UTC The right hand edge of both of the images above are very close to the north/south Earth-Sun centerline. This will place them in an Earth effective position in the coming hours . Any flare activity would probably be Earthbound. Region 2436 is upper and 2437 is lower. The white line is the solar equator. This is a good example of polarity connections. In the right image yellow = minus (-) and green = positive (+) polarity. Looking at the left image the lines of magnetic flux connect (attract) Plus to Minus based on relative strength. SWPC Forecaster Lash indicates region 2436 has a 90%, 40%, 5%, 1% and region 2437 10%, 1%, 1%, 1% chance of C, M. X, P flare activity over the 24 hour period starting 10-22-15 at 0700 UTC. SDO AIA QLC 10-22-15 16:15 UTC A new region is rotating into view on the north eastern limb. The lower edge of the image is the equatorial line. This new region will probably be numbered 2438 later today. Special Note: Follow the progress of major Hurricane Patricia at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD Serial Number: 166 Issue Time: 2015 Oct 24 1838 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Valid From: 2015 Oct 24 1900 UTC Valid To: 2015 Oct 24 2000 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2015 Oct 24 1828 UTC Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # .Forecast... C-class flares are likely with a slight chance for M-class flares over the next three days (24-26 Oct). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (24-26 Oct) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period. Solar winds are expected to increase to around 500-550 km/s late on day one (24 Oct) and persist through early day two (25 Oct) due to the anticipated arrival of the 22 Oct CME. Solar wind parameters are expected to return to near-background levels by day three (26 Oct) as CME effects wane. The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels late on day one (24 Oct) into early on day two (25 Oct) due to the anticipated arrival of the 22 Oct CME. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (26 Oct) as CME effects subside.
Plot: SWPC WSA-ENLIL 10-26-15 22:00 UTC http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2015 Oct 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Analysis of the coronal mass ejection (CME) that was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 26/1112 UTC, indicated there is a possibility of a glancing blow to Earth sometime late in the day on 30 Oct to early on 31 Oct. Impacts from this CME will be discussed in future forecasts as the arrival time falls outside this forecast period. Left Image: GOES 15 SXI TM 10-27-15 21:50:15 UTC Right Image: SDO AIA 193 10-27-15 21:41:18 UTC The two images show Coronal Hole #18 (old CH #10 see previous posts) as it moves closer along the Earth-Sun center line. This region will be in the Earth effective location about 11/7 to 11/8. The SWPC has a great article about this region while it was on the opposite side of the sun as viewed by the STEREO A spacecraft on 10-21-15. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/sometimes-aurora-can-be-predicted There was a long duration flare on the western limb earlier today. Awaiting LASCO imagery.
SDO HMIIC QLC 10-28-15 01:00 UTC A new region is emerging on the East limb. The solar equator is at the bottom edge of this image. Between this new region and region 2441 is CH #18 (see previous post). The new region may have been responsible for several flares over the past hours. This new region maybe numbered 2443 later today and will be in an Earth directed position about 11-4-15 which could enhance geomagnetic activity in the coming days.
ACE 2 Hour Plot 10-29-15 03:06:07 2015 10 29 0219 //// 0230 PAL C RSP 025 to 180 Type II/1 Region 2443 2015 10 29 0230 //// 0247 LEA C RSP 030 to 135 MHz Type IV/1 Region 2437 Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4 Serial Number: 517 Issue Time: 2015 Oct 29 0241 UTC ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Oct 29 0230 UTC www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2 Serial Number: 1028 Issue Time: 2015 Oct 29 0248 UTC ALERT: Type II Radio Emission Begin Time: 2015 Oct 29 0219 UTC Estimated Velocity: 972 km/s
Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0 Serial Number: 80 Issue Time: 2015 Oct 29 0430 UTC WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected Valid From: 2015 Oct 29 0445 UTC Valid To: 2015 Oct 29 1400 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.
SDO HMI QLC 10-29-15 10:15 UTC Left: HMIIC Right: HMIIBC These early images of new region 2443 show the magnetic polarity and intensity. Just off the horizon is another section of negative polarity with positive in the center. At this time of post, the region has been numbered but not yet classified.
Left upper image: STEREO A EUVI 171 10-29-15 02:07:06 UTC Lower left image: STEREO A EUVI 171 10-29-15 09:52:13 UTC Upper right image: STEREO COR2 10-29-15 09:01:13 UTC Lower right image: STEREO COR2 10-29-15 10:46:13 UTC The upper left image may turn out to be the closet image of the actual eruption on 10-29-15 from the far side of the sun as viewed from STEREO A. It appears to show old region 2435 with 2437 just to the lower left. These and other images will be studied further.
Left & Center Images: SDO AIA 171 10-31-15 14:11:11 UTC Right Image: LASCO C2 10-31-15 12:36:00 UTC Left Image shows region 2443. SWPC forecaster Carr indicates this region now has a C = 95%, M = 40%, X = 5%, and P = 1% chance of flare activity. Center image is showing the west limb magnetic field activity just over the horizon on the far side. The circle indicates the area with a very strong and growing coronal jet stream. Right image is showing the jet stream in the center image from the LASCO c2 coronagraph. The arrow is showing the pathway of this rapid growth. It appears both region 2443 and the area on the far side are in preparation for eruption. The far side region may be of significant magnitude in the coming hours. It appears a small CME was created just prior to the time of the C2 image in the same area.
