View Full Version : Long Range Solar Forecast
kg4kww
05-11-2006, 02:06 AM
May 10, 2006: The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a record-low crawl, according to research by NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "It's off the bottom of the charts," he says. "This has important repercussions for future solar activity."
Long Range Solar Forecast (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm?list52655)
ve2nsm
05-11-2006, 02:44 AM
Don't care, I'll be an OF by then http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif
Let's see if they get Cycle 24 right before predicting the one after it!
Scott NĜIU
"There will be approximately 5 and a half years of increasing solar activity, followed by approximately 5 and a half years of decreasing solar activity, followed by approximately #. . . . ." # #Yawn ! # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif
Kinda reminds me of "The Hippy Dippy Weatherman" Remember George Carlin's old classic routine ?
"There will be a period of increasing darkness, followed by a period of increasing daylight. . . ." Still funny !
Somebody tell me how they figured this out in the 1800's.
kl7aj
05-11-2006, 05:40 PM
Cycle 25 does indeed look somewhat depressing. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif (Why can't you undertakers ever come up with GOOD news? ) http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif
kl7aj
05-11-2006, 05:42 PM
Quote[/b] (AC0H @ May 11 2006,10:26)]Somebody tell me how they figured this out in the 1800's.
They weren't making predictions in the 1800s. All they could do was look at existing sunspots. (And go blind in the process, like Galileo.)
kl7aj
05-11-2006, 05:49 PM
Actually, discovery of phenomena like the conveyor belt is like the three blind men trying do describe an elephant. One of them grabs his leg and says, "Oh, the elephant is like a tree." Another grabs his tail and says," Oh, the elephant is like a rope!" Another grabs his ear and says, "Oh, the elephant is like a big leaf."
Are any of these descriptions wrong? Of course, not...just incomplete. If you get enough blind men crawling over the elephant, you can get a pretty good picture of what an elephant is. Much of plasma physics is like that...you get a lot of information indirectly, but with ENOUGH of it, you can make a lot of sense. The conveyor belt is a very reasonable description, and has been a good working model for many years.
eric
K7KBN
05-11-2006, 06:21 PM
"...important repercussions...". Now that's grim.
Thanks to KG4KWW for the Grim Reaper cussions. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif
(Sorry; couldn't resist!)
K0RGR
05-11-2006, 06:32 PM
Looks like one last shot to make DXCC on 10 meters - I better get on it...
WB2WIK
05-11-2006, 09:18 PM
Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ May 11 2006,09:14)]Kinda reminds me of "The Hippy Dippy Weatherman" Remember George Carlin's old classic routine ?
"Today it will be 80 degrees at the airport."
"Now, who the hell lives at the airport?" http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif
WA9SVD
05-11-2006, 09:42 PM
Kinda ironic, isn't it? Heck, they can't even get Earth weather right much more than half the time. And now they think they can predict Space Weather and what ol' Sol will do in the future?
Scientists say the Sun has been around for a billion or so years, and will likely be around for another billion or so, and we speak of the next 100 or so years as "the long range forcast" Kinda silly, ain't it ? ? ?