ARS licensing Trends as of 1/30/06

[K3UD]

I have not posted these numbers since September 2005. The FCC
was not expiring licenses out of their grace date for a time period
and I was not certain how it affected the database. The numbers below represent the net license totals from 10/1/05 to 1/30/06. I will try to post these numbers on a quarterly basis. ##

George
K3UD


Total number of USA Licensed Amateurs by Class

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice # # #- # 49,329
Tech/+ # # - #334,254
General # # - #112,677
Advanced #- # 99,782
Extra # # # # - # 78,750

Total all classes - 674,792

As of January 30, 2006

Novice # # # - 26,461 # # (-46.36%) # # (-22,868)
Tech/+ # # #- 317,661 # (-4.60%) # # # (-15,646)
General # # #- 134,676 # (+19.52%) # (+21,999)
Advanced # - 73,849 # # (-26.99%) # # (-25,933)
Extra # # # # #- 107,487 # (+36.49%) # (+28,737)

Total All Classes - 661,081 (-2,629 since the September 2005 reporting period)## #(see top of post)

Total all classes #(5/14/00) # - 674,792
Total all Classes (4/21/03) # - 687,860
Total all classes #(9/6/04 ) # - 674,788 #
Total all classes #(1/30/06) # - 661,081

Total loss of 13,711 since 5/14/2000 # (Was 674,792)
Total loss of 13,707 since 9/6/2004 # # (Was 674,788)
Total Loss of 26,779 since 4/2003 # # # (all time high of 687,860)

We Lost
1,320 Novice
1,294 General
1,444 Advanced

We Gained
947 Tech/+
482 Extra

This is an overall 2,629 loss #since the September reporting period## # (see top of post)

Between 10/1/05 and 1/30/06 there were 7,075 new licenses issued by the FCC.

6,210 # Tech/+ # #(86.8%) **
656 # # General # (9.3%)
39 # # Extra # # #( 2.9%)

** These numbers come from the very interesting and comprehensive website of Joe Speroni, AH0A #
http://www.ah0a.org

Numbers of US population and the number of hams at the start of each decade from 1930.

Year # # #Population # # # Hams # # #Growth Rate

1930 # #123,202,624 # #19,000
1940 # #132,164,569 # #56,000 # # # # #194% #
1950 # #151,325,798 # #87,000 # # # # # 55% # #
1960 # #179,323,175 # #230,000 # # # #164% #
1970 # #203,211,926 # #263,918 # # # # #15% # #
1980 # #226,545,805 # #393,353 # # # # #49%
1990 # #248,709,873 # #502,677 # # # # #28%
2000 # #281,421,906 # #682,240 # # # # #36%
2006 # # # # # # # # # # # # 661,081# # # # -3.1 %

The 2006 number was as of January 30, 2006

Notes,
The base totals are from implementation of the then new licensing changes in May 2000. September 6, 2004 is the date I started measuring the changes. The peak number was in April 2003.

73
George
K3UD

[N0WK]

It would seem that not even give away programs for the license is increasing the total ham population. Interesting enought manufactors sell new equiptment to new hams and it doen't seem to help there either. Some dump site is going to make a profit.

[N2EY]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Jan. 30 2006,12:27)]
Quote[/b] ]Numbers of US population and the number of hams at the start of each decade from 1930.

Year Population # Hams Growth Rate

1930 123,202,624 19,000
1940 132,164,569 56,000 194%
1950 151,325,798 87,000 55%
1960 179,323,175 230,000 164%
1970 203,211,926 263,918 15%
1980 226,545,805 393,353 49%
1990 248,709,873 502,677 28%
2000 281,421,906 682,240 36%
2006 661,081 -3.1 %

The 2006 number was as of January 30, 2006

Notes,
The base totals are from implementation of the then new licensing changes in May 2000. September 6, 2004 is the date I started measuring the changes. The peak number was in April 2003.



George,

Couple of things about those historical stats:

The greatest period of growth (percentagewise) was during the 1930s. This growth happened despite the Great Depression, the 1929 rules changes that narrowed the bands enormously and required much better quality signals, and the 1936 increase in the level of testing (both code and written).

The 55% growth of the 1940s happened despite WW2 shutting down US ham radio for almost 4 years.

Note the enormous growth of the 1950s (despite TVI) compared to the very low growth of the 1960s.

Also note the 49% growth of the 1970s despite the imposition of incentive licensing in 1968-69 and the bad economic times.

The growth of the 1980s is somewhat overstated because of the change to 10 year licenses in 1984 or so.

73 de Jim, N2EY

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]I have not posted these numbers since September 2005.

And I thank you not to post them again. Ever. It's a non-topic, as meaningless as it is useless.

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]It would seem that not even give away programs for the license is increasing the total ham population. Interesting enought manufactors sell new equiptment to new hams and it doen't seem to help there either. Some dump site is going to make a profit.

An interesting, and relevant, observation.

Obviously, the conclusion to this is that amateur radio is not of interest to enough people to study for an exam or pay the fees for such exams to obtain a license.

Chuck, AA1MN

[K3UD]

Hello Jim,

It is the growth rate between 1960 and 1970 that intrigues me. Lots of cultural changes in the mid to late 60s which carried through to the 70s. Lots of baby boomers becoming teens in the 60s should have increased the numbers more than we see. Could it have been that CB radio was a more attractive option? I wonder why this was reversed in the 70s. Disgruntled CB crossovers perhaps? There were literally millions of them.

73
George
K3UD

[ke5hdf]

any information regarding the global Ham population ??some other factors to perhaps consider .....
in the 1970's there was a trememdous rate of technology improvement and smaller radios coming available
during the 80's some folks began to believe technology is the enemy
now we have kids coming ouit of high school who can't read, but a lot of the "inclusive" mindset where supposedly we can all get along if we just talk.....
Well ... HAMS TALK !!
as a scout leader, I will start encouraging the radio merit badge, and as a manager at an engineering company, I have already started talking up the emergency communications aspect.

[K3UD]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,12:54)]Quote[/b] ]I have not posted these numbers since September 2005.

And I thank you not to post them again. Ever. It's a non-topic, as meaningless as it is useless.
I guess we differ on the philosophy of the subject. I happen to believe that numbers mean things and that they tell a story for those who can decipher them and attach meaning. Numbers are a big part of my life and chosen profession. No one really has to look at them if they do not want to, and that is OK with me.

But thanks for looking and posting anyway. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

73
George
K3UD

[ky5u]

"Stupid is as Stupid Does!", Forrest Gump


Looking for a reason for the decline in Amateur Radio numbers only within Amateur Radio may be a myopic mistake. As time passes, it appears that many harsh comments about a clueless or "gimme" generation may be more on target than our sensibilities wish to allow. The "dumbing down" in Amateur Radio is not restricted to our Hobby.

In the Sunday Paper (February 5, 2006), syndicated columnist Rheta Grimsley Johnson comments in an article entitled, "When it comes to literacy, we seem to be headed backward" that, "Nearing a diploma, most college students cannot handle many complex but common tasks, from understanding credit card offers to comparing the cost per ounce of food." She quotes a recent study which shows, "...that 50 percent of students at 4 year schools and 75 percent at two-year colleges could not balance a checkbook, figure a restraunt tip, understand arguments in a newspaper editorial, or interpret a table about exercise and blood pressure."

Is it any wonder the ARRL sees the need to make entry test easier? If we're interested in mainstream youth, we better make it ALOT easier, it seems. Ms. Johnson points out that college students are alegedly our "best and brightest". What does that say for the rest of our potential license pool? And is it any wonder some Amateurs look at you like you have two heads when you suggest they should be tested and earn license upgrades?

The truth of the matter is that all organizations or hobbies based on some acedemic knowledge base like mathematics, engineering, or science are experiencing a decline in membership (where standards have not been reduced). MENSA, the "High IQ Club" membership growth has slowed dramatically while membership in Engineering Clubs has dropped a whopping 10%. Various mathematics organizations report a smaller pool of qualified applicants.

The answer may be in a smaller but smarter Amateur Radio. As I have illustrated before, Amateur Radio at 300k would have a greater participation than current numbers in girls high school sports across the nation, women's pro football, and nearly the same participation as cheerleading and gymnastics. We'd have more participants than Boy's Highschool Track and Field teams. At 300,000 Amateurs, we'd have more participants than female NCAA Division II Gymnastics, Male Golf, Equestrian, and hockey. Why is this germaine?

All these sports are not self suffecient and require propping up and financial bailing out by taxpayers. We do it so these young people have a chance to do what they want. Are Amateurs any less entitled to "quiet enjoyment" of their service? In the case of Amateur Radio, with vanity licenses, license fees, and lack of government expenditures, I'd bet we're an even money service. The bottom line is that Amateur Radio with 300k qualified participants is an easy sell. Is the "we have to lower standards so we keep growing" ARRL mantra valid? You decide.

[KC0OFZ]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,10:54)]Quote[/b] ]I have not posted these numbers since September 2005.

And I thank you not to post them again. #Ever. #It's a non-topic, as meaningless as it is useless.
Don't like the thread? #DON"T READ IT!!! #Don't like numbers? DON'T READ THEM!!! Very simple to understand for most people.

To some numbers and stats are meaningful and hold value.


BTW #Your post is meaningless and useless as far as that goes.

George, thanks for the info.

[n7wqy]

Just an observation. and perhaps a preposition. from some of the things i have heard on 80 meters (around 3.840 to 3.860) sounds like alot of trash talk and "potty mouth" for lack of a nicer term. If i were a "perspective" ham id probably be thinking "why should i take the time, pay the fees and spend alot of money on expensive equipment to hear and participate in what i can do for less than 100 bucks at radio shack for any old cb and antenna?" there are good operators there and im hoping to upgrade soon and get a chance to talk with some of them but we must clean up our act. just goes to show, just because you studied and got your general extra etc doesent make a good operator. character does. just my observation. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[wa4gch]

some of the things i have heard on 80 meters (around 3.840 to 3.860) sounds like alot of trash talk and "potty mouth" for lack of a nicer term

This is directly the result of the decrease in code speed. If the code had been increased to 50 WPM and the exam to 10,000 questions the problem would not exsist.

Bring back a 50 WPM exam for novice and up and require retesting for license renewal.:D

[N2EY]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Feb. 07 2006,10:57)]
Quote[/b] ]It is the growth rate between 1960 and 1970 that intrigues me. Lots of cultural changes in the mid to late 60s which carried through to the 70s. Lots of baby boomers becoming teens in the 60s should have increased the numbers more than we see. Could it have been that CB radio was a more attractive option? I wonder why this was reversed in the 70s. Disgruntled CB crossovers perhaps? There were literally millions of the

Here are some reasons I remember from those days:

1) About 1964, FCC greatly increased both the number of exam points and the "Conditional distance" (75 to 175 miles). The area of the USA where a prospective General/Conditional could qualify for a Conditional license shrank to a very small area of low population density. This meant almost everybody had to travel to an FCC exam office, where exams were typically given on weekday mornings only.

2) Before late 1967 the Novice was a one-year one-time license. If someone couldn't make the jump to a higher class license before the Novice ran out, they were off the air until the could. The Tech had no HF privileges, so the target license was the General or Conditional. The Novice term was doubled to 2 years in 1967 because of the high dropout rate.

3) In the 1960s the FCC began charging for licenses and tests other than the Novice. $4 back then was a lot of money, particularly to young people!

4) CB was still new in the 1960s. Not enough disgruntled folks yet. (Is anyone ever "gruntled"?)

5) The early 1960s are when SSB really began to eclipse AM on the ham 'phone bands. It used to be very common for people with no connection to amateur radio to 'discover' hams by hearing hams using AM on 'shortwave' radio. SSB changed all that.

6) The '60s were a time of cultural change and polarization. A lot of young people were 'turned off' by anything even remotely connected with 'the establishment'. What could be more 'square' than ham radio?

7) Technological change was all over the place. Long distance telephone calls and jet airliners became common. Communications satellites beamed TV around the world. Unmanned probes sent back information from the moon and other planets. All made terrestrial DX seem like next door. (Remember Christmas Eve 1968 - watching the Apollo 8 astronauts from lunar orbit on live TV? What could amateur DX do to top that?)

Of course none of these things killed off amateur radio. And I doubt that anyone was affected by all of them. But I think they all had an impact on the number of new hams, and the number who stayed past their Novice year.

73 de Jim, N2EY

[n7spy]

Keep being pessimist...

Continue to push aside any Ham who would not do Amateur Radio the way you do..

Mock those Hams who dare to use different equipment than you...

Keep an air of arrogance every time a newbie comes to you with what *you* consider a stupid question...

... and you will be part of the reason why the generations after yours think Amateur Radio stinks.

We newbies are not asking you to hold our hands during the learning process... we're just asking that you'll be there to help us when we need help... and we'll sure-as-hell be there when you need us http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

We're not that different from you: we also want Amateur Radio to have (in business terms) a good Return On Investment. We also want to have fun, we also want to serve the public, we also want to go on the air and enjoy ourselves... but we also want to be respected, accepted, and tolerated while we catch up with you.

And to the Ham to said that these stats are a waste of time: you're wasting no one else's time/bandwidth but your own. If you think that these statistics are a waste of time, then don't read them. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[nc5s]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Jan. 30 2006,12:27)]I have not posted these numbers since September 2005. The FCC
was not expiring licenses out of their grace date for a time period
and I was not certain how it affected the database. The numbers below represent the net license totals from 10/1/05 to 1/30/06. I will try to post these numbers on a quarterly basis. ##

George
K3UD
Thanks, the numbers are very interesting and "Please" continue posting them.

[ab9lz]

Quote[/b] (wa4gch @ Feb. 07 2006,12:26)]some of the things i have heard on 80 meters (around 3.840 to 3.860) sounds like alot of trash talk and "potty mouth" for lack of a nicer term

This is directly the result of the decrease in code speed. If the code had been increased to 50 WPM and the exam to 10,000 questions the problem would not exsist.

Bring back a 50 WPM exam for novice and up and require retesting for license renewal.:D
Well, then you'd have the bands pretty much to yourself, which would be no fun now would it?

What you are hearing on 80 are the folks that probably could manage 50 wpm at one time, but with arthritis kicking in can't swing it anymore, the Jack Daniels helps ease the pain in the fingers, and... perhaps lets a blue comment slip by every once in a while.

Seriously, back in the 80's when I should have gotten my ticket, the computer age was upon us, thats where the technical folks went... no waiting for the stinkin FCC office to open up, a pile of parts out of the computer shopper, and a modem... ahh the world at your fingertips.

73's
Mark

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]I guess we differ on the philosophy of the subject. I happen to believe that numbers mean things and that they tell a story for those who can decipher them and attach meaning. Numbers are a big part of my life and chosen profession. No one really has to look at them if they do not want to, and that is OK with me.


People are not numbers and cannot be reduced to such

Chuck, AA1MN

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]Don't like the thread? DON"T READ IT!!! Don't like numbers? DON'T READ THEM!!! Very simple to understand for most people.

To some numbers and stats are meaningful and hold value.


BTW Your post is meaningless and useless as far as that goes.


Then why did you respond to it?

Chuck, AA1MN

[ab9lz]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,14:19)]Quote[/b] ]I guess we differ on the philosophy of the subject. I happen to believe that numbers mean things and that they tell a story for those who can decipher them and attach meaning. Numbers are a big part of my life and chosen profession. No one really has to look at them if they do not want to, and that is OK with me.


People are not numbers and cannot be reduced to such

Chuck, AA1MN
Odd... that number in your call sign gives me an idea of what region you are from. In fact people are reduced to numbers everyday... i.e. the auto manufacturer of the car you drive has put a dollar value as to what it thinks your life is worth compared to the economic value of building additional saftey measures. You have a SS#, FRN# are counted in the census, sit in a tax bracket based on your economic worth, etc. You sir are a number, and more importantly a statistic... just like the rest of us.

I for one welcome our statisical overlords.

73's
Mark.

[kd4mxe]

Quote[/b] (wa4gch @ Feb. 07 2006,12:26)]some of the things i have heard on 80 meters (around 3.840 to 3.860) sounds like alot of trash talk and "potty mouth" for lack of a nicer term

This is directly the result of the decrease in code speed. If the code had been increased to 50 WPM and the exam to 10,000 questions the problem would not exsist.
wa4gch-Bring back a 50 WPM exam for novice and up and require retesting for license renewal.:D (and Retake the code every time you Renew your license, the lucky few that could do it, would not have any problem finding a clear Freq to talk on thats for sure) http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif 73 Bill

[w5alt]

Quote[/b] (n7spy @ Feb. 07 2006,16:28)]We newbies are not asking you to hold our hands during the learning process... we're just asking that you'll be there to help us when we need help... and we'll sure-as-hell be there when you need us http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
That's good to hear. If I can help, let me know.

Quote[/b] ]We're not that different from you: we also want Amateur Radio to have (in business terms) a good Return On Investment. We also want to have fun, we also want to serve the public, we also want to go on the air and enjoy ourselves... but we also want to be respected, accepted, and tolerated while we catch up with you.
Well, if you really mean that literally, I'd say we are VERY different!!

I never think about a "Return on Investment" for amateur radio. I got into it because it intrigued me. I promise I've spent far more time, effort, sweat and money on amateur radio than I ever expect to get out of it. And that's OK, because I enjoy it and it still intrigues me.

Fun, we agree on. Amateur radio is still fun, no doubt about it.

Public service? I never heard of anyone getting into amateur radio with public service as a goal until recently. Of course we pitched in when we could - and I have certificates to show stashed away somewhere. But public service was not a goal. The hams I grew up with considered their public service as just being a good neighbor. Until the last 10 years, I never met a ham that was proud of doing public service - they just did it because they were willing to help when needed. And we certainly never asked for a certificate!

Respect? I always thought that was something one earns. It never entered into our reasons for being a ham. Accepted? I've found that most everyone is accepted based on their abilities and behavior. Not just in amateur radio, but in most of life. Tolerated? Sure, the older fellows tolerated us.

They also indoctrinated and kidded us and corrected us when we were wrong. And we accepted that - which is how respect is earned. And we got better - which made it easier for them to tolerate us.

And we also accepted them. That goes a long way towards respect, acceptance and tolerance, too. And anyone who who enters amateur radio with the attitude to earn respect, accept others, and tolerate others as much as one wants to be tolerated, won't have any problem now, either.

But those who enter amateur radio for the sole purpose of return on investment and public service and expect instant respect, acceptance and tolerance without giving the same in kind, is sure to be disappointed.

And that's a shame - amateur radio is too great to get disappointed over.

73,
Walt, W5ALT

[WA7CS]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,10:54)]Quote[/b] ]I have not posted these numbers since September 2005.

And I thank you not to post them again. Ever. It's a non-topic, as meaningless as it is useless.
I find these posts about licensing trends very interesting.

Those that protest have their heads buried somewhere.

[KB3KRJ]

Nice job on the data…..
Well I am in the hobby in spite of a lot of distractions….
My wife and I both work and have kids. Neither of our mothers worked and I’m pretty sure that my father didn’t work the hours I do. We both go non-stop once we return from work, cooking, kids homework, animals, laundry, did I mention kids? By the time everything is done and I have time to myself I am usually too tired to tune up the rig. Sure the uhf / vhf is good company on the trip to and from work, but I got into the hobby to learn, and I like building and hanging antennas in the front yard. Daylight is hard to come by.
Anyway… there is a lot of other stuff today, internet, Nextel, 200 plus channels on TV, I’m sure we loose a lot of perspective people on these.
Oh yea…. I am a newbie and got my license myself, I would have liked an elmer if that person still exists, but instead I listen to the majority of the old-timers complain about us beginners and how the no-code tech class is messing up the hobby. I’ll get there, really I will but a little help and encouragement would be nice……

Chris

[ab0wr]

Quote[/b] ]
w5alt:
Public service? I never heard of anyone getting into amateur radio with public service as a goal until recently. Of course we pitched in when we could - and I have certificates to show stashed away somewhere. But public service was not a goal. The hams I grew up with considered their public service as just being a good neighbor. Until the last 10 years, I never met a ham that was proud of doing public service - they just did it because they were willing to help when needed. And we certainly never asked for a certificate!

Respect? I always thought that was something one earns. It never entered into our reasons for being a ham. Accepted? I've found that most everyone is accepted based on their abilities and behavior. Not just in amateur radio, but in most of life. Tolerated? Sure, the older fellows tolerated us.

They also indoctrinated and kidded us and corrected us when we were wrong. And we accepted that - which is how respect is earned. And we got better - which made it easier for them to tolerate us.

And we also accepted them. That goes a long way towards respect, acceptance and tolerance, too. And anyone who who enters amateur radio with the attitude to earn respect, accept others, and tolerate others as much as one wants to be tolerated, won't have any problem now, either.

But those who enter amateur radio for the sole purpose of return on investment and public service and expect instant respect, acceptance and tolerance without giving the same in kind, is sure to be disappointed.

And that's a shame - amateur radio is too great to get disappointed over.


Dang!, Walt. That's well said.

This ought to be in QST somewhere - every one of them!

tim ab0wr

[W5HTW]

Quote[/b] (w5alt @ Feb. 07 2006,15:48)]Fun, we agree on. Amateur radio is still fun, no doubt about it.

Public service? I never heard of anyone getting into amateur radio with public service as a goal until recently. Of course we pitched in when we could - and I have certificates to show stashed away somewhere. But public service was not a goal. The hams I grew up with considered their public service as just being a good neighbor. Until the last 10 years, I never met a ham that was proud of doing public service - they just did it because they were willing to help when needed. And we certainly never asked for a certificate!

Respect? I always thought that was something one earns. It never entered into our reasons for being a ham. Accepted? I've found that most everyone is accepted based on their abilities and behavior. Not just in amateur radio, but in most of life. Tolerated? Sure, the older fellows tolerated us.

They also indoctrinated and kidded us and corrected us when we were wrong. And we accepted that - which is how respect is earned. And we got better - which made it easier for them to tolerate us.

And we also accepted them. That goes a long way towards respect, acceptance and tolerance, too. And anyone who who enters amateur radio with the attitude to earn respect, accept others, and tolerate others as much as one wants to be tolerated, won't have any problem now, either.

But those who enter amateur radio for the sole purpose of return on investment and public service and expect instant respect, acceptance and tolerance without giving the same in kind, is sure to be disappointed.

And that's a shame - amateur radio is too great to get disappointed over.

73,
Walt, W5ALT
Almost ANY old timer ham will most gladly help a newcomer, or someone interested in getting into ham radio. That has been, and remains, one of the few traditions we still have. The problem has been in recent years, newcomers have all too often entered ham radio with the idea they already "know everything there is to know" because they were 'trained' in CB. Many of us never got that chance to be trained in such a great radio school as CB as we entered ham radio before there was a CB.

The result is we get a lot of bad attitude from people who do not want to learn what ham radio is about, but instead just want to have fun on some other "HF CB bands." Yet I can just about guarantee if the newcomer approaches the old timer at the club, on the web, or in person, he/she will find plenty of help and encouragement. It's all a matter of attitude.

Part of the difficulty lies with the 1980s promotions of "public service." Before that, as Walt says, public service was something you did when it was needed, but it was a small part of ham radio. Then the ARRL and others began the "you can be a ham and save the world" campaign and we got a WHOLE lot of REACT/Wannabe Cops into the hobby. As Walt implies, the goal today appears to be trying to figure out how many public service awards you (generic "you") can garner, and how many pats on the back you can get.

Most of us have worked floods, earthquakes, tornados, train wrecks, and other disasters. Until the 1980s, virtually NONE of us sought acclaim for having done so. We did it, and when the job was done, we went about our ham radio fun time. I was a brand new Novice when I was asked to be Net Control for an emergency operation in a serious flood. I had no idea what I was doing, on 2 meter AM. But, with the help of some OTs who DID know, I got through it. And never heard of it again. No awards, no certificates, no city major running around to give me the key to the city, no ARRL certificate proclaiming me as a hero.

Today, though, we have the recruitment effort to make us an auxilliary of Homeland Security, the Fire Department, Police Department, Medics, Border Patrol, and probably a dozen other things are are NOT ham radio. We are even encouraged, yes, encouraged, to arrive on scene and brightly announce "I'm here, and I'm in control." This P***es off a lot of REAL public safety employees, and I sure as hell don't blame them.

Walt says, "good neighbor." My God, don't we know what that means? You help your neighbor fix a flat tire, or control a fire (yes, I've had to do that, and have had neighbors help me with a grass fire) of fix a fence, or get his cows back into the yard. Why in hell do you have to run to the newspaper or tv station and announce it? Go back to your own business. We hams seem to have a very big case of HERO COMPLEX. It would be much simpler if we'd go back to just being ham radio operators, and do whatever job comes up that needs doing, and then get off the pot and shut the hell up. And I am speaking as DEC of this county, and as an ARES member. But I have NO desire to put light bars on my car, carry a police radio and a badge and vest, and crash the scene. I'll wait until I'm needed.

Respect? For what? What have you (generic) done to earn respect? Respect as a human being, certainly. But I cannot offer superior respect to a beginner the same way I can offer respect to an expert. I respect the Professor more than I respect the student. Why? Because he has worked to get where he is, and the student is just beginning. I respect the desire to climb that ladder. But "desire" is not "accomplishment." There is a major difference.

Thanks, Walt, for saying it the way it is. I just had to add those comments above. We really should find a way to stop appealing to the "I Dream I'm A Cop" crowd, and go back to being amateur radio.

Ed

[W5HTW]

Quote[/b] (ab9lz @ Feb. 07 2006,14:06)][

What you are hearing on 80 are the folks that probably could manage 50 wpm at one time, but with arthritis kicking in can't swing it anymore, the Jack Daniels helps ease the pain in the fingers, and... perhaps lets a blue comment slip by every once in a while.
And by the way, those "Old Timers" on 75 meters who have the potty mouth? Guess when most of them came into ham radio (and guess how?) They have been in it now 20 some odd years, so they do qualify as OTs. But they were the migrants from 11 meters who, in many cases, bought their ham tickets from their buddy-VEs, something that was well known then and is well known now. By the sheer passage of time, they are today's OTs. They were the ones then who chose to get into ham radio because "hey, man, I can buy a license from Joe so I can be a ham and still shoot skip."

What do they have to teach the newcomer? CB approaches to breaking the rules, that's what.

Ed

[wa4dou]

Who works 75 meter phone? Of all the bands to operate phone on, that would be my last choice of all of them. I'll bet there are really very few, relatively speaking, of all hams that operate 75 meter phone.

[ab9lz]

Quote[/b] (W5HTW @ Feb. 07 2006,17:54)]Quote[/b] (ab9lz @ Feb. 07 2006,14:06)][

What you are hearing on 80 are the folks that probably could manage 50 wpm at one time, but with arthritis kicking in can't swing it anymore, the Jack Daniels helps ease the pain in the fingers, and... perhaps lets a blue comment slip by every once in a while.
And by the way, those "Old Timers" on 75 meters who have the potty mouth? #Guess when most of them came into ham radio (and guess how?) #They have been in it now 20 some odd years, so they do qualify as OTs. #But they were the migrants from 11 meters who, in many cases, bought their ham tickets from their buddy-VEs, something that was well known then and is well known now. #By the sheer passage of time, they are today's OTs. #They were the ones then who chose to get into ham radio because "hey, man, I can buy a license from Joe so I can be a ham and still shoot skip." #

What do they have to teach the newcomer? #CB approaches to breaking the rules, that's what. #

Ed
I was giving those guys the benefit of the doubt, in reality I have no clue, as I've only been a ham for 6-7 months now. I had only recently learned of the "Jack Daniels" net from right here on QRZ (my internet elmer for all things screwy about amateur radio!)

Thanks for the update!

73's
Mark.

[KC0OFZ]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,14:20)]Quote[/b] ]Don't like the thread? #DON"T READ IT!!! #Don't like numbers? DON'T READ THEM!!! Very simple to understand for most people.

To some numbers and stats are meaningful and hold value.


BTW #Your post is meaningless and useless as far as that goes.


Then why did you respond to it?

Chuck, AA1MN
Just to waste a little time and I know you would get all worked up about it. Now calm down a bit and remember to watch the pretty numbers dancing in our every day life.
KC0OFZ

[KC0OFZ]

Quote[/b] (W5HTW @ Feb. 07 2006,17:49)]Quote[/b] (w5alt @ Feb. 07 2006,15:48)]Fun, we agree on. Amateur radio is still fun, no doubt about it.

Public service? I never heard of anyone getting into amateur radio with public service as a goal until recently. Of course we pitched in when we could - and I have certificates to show stashed away somewhere. But public service was not a goal. The hams I grew up with considered their public service as just being a good neighbor. Until the last 10 years, I never met a ham that was proud of doing public service - they just did it because they were willing to help when needed. And we certainly never asked for a certificate!

Respect? I always thought that was something one earns. It never entered into our reasons for being a ham. Accepted? I've found that most everyone is accepted based on their abilities and behavior. Not just in amateur radio, but in most of life. Tolerated? Sure, the older fellows tolerated us.

They also indoctrinated and kidded us and corrected us when we were wrong. And we accepted that - which is how respect is earned. And we got better - which made it easier for them to tolerate us.

And we also accepted them. That goes a long way towards respect, acceptance and tolerance, too. And anyone who who enters amateur radio with the attitude to earn respect, accept others, and tolerate others as much as one wants to be tolerated, won't have any problem now, either.

But those who enter amateur radio for the sole purpose of return on investment and public service and expect instant respect, acceptance and tolerance without giving the same in kind, is sure to be disappointed.

And that's a shame - amateur radio is too great to get disappointed over.

73,
Walt, W5ALT
Almost ANY old timer ham will most gladly help a newcomer, or someone interested in getting into ham radio. #That has been, and remains, one of the few traditions we still have. #The problem has been in recent years, newcomers have all too often entered ham radio with the idea they already "know everything there is to know" because they were 'trained' in CB. #Many of us never got that chance to be trained in such a great radio school as CB as we entered ham radio before there was a CB. #

The result is we get a lot of bad attitude from people who do not want to learn what ham radio is about, but instead just want to have fun on some other "HF CB bands." #Yet I can just about guarantee if the newcomer approaches the old timer at the club, on the web, or in person, he/she will find plenty of help and encouragement. #It's all a matter of attitude.

Part of the difficulty lies with the 1980s promotions of "public service." #Before that, as Walt says, public service was something you did when it was needed, but it was a small part of ham radio. #Then the ARRL and others began the "you can be a ham and save the world" campaign and we got a WHOLE lot of REACT/Wannabe Cops into the hobby. #As Walt implies, the goal today appears to be trying to figure out how many public service awards you (generic "you") can garner, and how many pats on the back you can get. #

Most of us have worked floods, earthquakes, tornados, train wrecks, and other disasters. #Until the 1980s, virtually NONE of us sought acclaim for having done so. #We did it, and when the job was done, we went about our ham radio fun time. #I was a brand new Novice when I was asked to be Net Control for an emergency operation in a serious flood. #I had no idea what I was doing, on 2 meter AM. #But, with the help of some OTs who DID know, I got through it. #And never heard of it again. #No awards, no certificates, no city major running around to give me the key to the city, no ARRL certificate proclaiming me as a hero. #

Today, though, we have the recruitment effort to make us an auxilliary of Homeland Security, the Fire Department, Police Department, Medics, Border Patrol, and probably a dozen other things are are NOT ham radio. #We are even encouraged, yes, encouraged, to arrive on scene and brightly announce "I'm here, and I'm in control." #This P***es off a lot of REAL public safety employees, and I sure as hell don't blame them. #

Walt says, "good neighbor." #My God, don't we know what that means? #You help your neighbor fix a flat tire, or control a fire (yes, I've had to do that, and have had neighbors help me with a grass fire) of fix a fence, or get his cows back into the yard. #Why in hell do you have to run to the newspaper or tv station and announce it? #Go back to your own business. #We hams seem to have a very big case of HERO COMPLEX. # It would be much simpler if we'd go back to just being ham radio operators, and do whatever job comes up that needs doing, and then get off the pot and shut the hell up. # And I am speaking as DEC of this county, and as an ARES member. #But I have NO desire to put light bars on my car, carry a police radio and a badge and vest, and crash the scene. #I'll wait until I'm needed.

Respect? #For what? #What have you (generic) done to earn respect? #Respect as a human being, certainly. #But I cannot offer superior respect to a beginner the same way I can offer respect to an expert. #I respect the Professor more than I respect the student. #Why? #Because he has worked to get where he is, and the student is just beginning. #I respect the desire to climb that ladder. #But "desire" is not "accomplishment." # There is a major difference.

Thanks, Walt, for saying it the way it is. #I just had to add those comments above. #We really should find a way to stop appealing to the "I Dream I'm A Cop" crowd, and go back to being amateur radio.

Ed
There really is something to be said for wisdom. You gentlemen have it. I feel anyone can have smarts, however, only time, experience, and insight will give way to actual wisdom. I would be a pleasure to talk with you two on the air. I hope I get that chance sometime. Very well said Ed and Walt
73 KC0OFZ
Arend

[ae6yd]

Thanks for the statistics, and everyone's various positions on the sociocultural aspects of ham radio are very intriguing. I haven't been here long enough to make any comments as to why other people got into the hobby, but I hope to be around long enough to see these growth trends reverse. (Remember, nearly all cultural trends work on about a 30-year pivot. We'll be cool again soon enough. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif )

[wa4gch]

the lucky few that could do it, would not have any problem finding a clear Freq to talk on thats for sure) 73 Bill

Bill its that way now ...the novice bands are dead FIST club is a dead issue they hold no intrest for the new ham .... as is the SK bunch ..... code is dead .... but at least SOME in the CW ranks ( SK's ) are tring to intrest the new bee's .... and not force that dieing mode on them.
All I'm hearing is CODE is the key and harder exams and we will get lots of new hams .... go tell that to a 14 year old TODAY and he will go back to roadrunner snickering at even the thought.
Now I got started young at 14 I was in electronics school and got a license ( I WAS 14 WHEN I GOT MY FIRST LICENSE ) and 17 when i went back and got the next.... my novice expired and i was in school at that time.
40+ years later im still a active HAM but i can think of many long gone from the hobby.
The ARRL is killing us in 1977 they BLEW it with the 220 mhz CB proposal they fought so hard which would have put 80 fm CB channels on that band ..... and a large pool to get new hams from instead it went to UPS who BOUGHT it and now you PAY to use it .....

I have been a life member for many years and a league member almost 40 and rarely agree with them and there TOO LITTLE TOO LATE additude. and lissing to a small vocal group of the 1920's at all costs ....

Look at CB radio it's DEAD the dealers are going broke BOB's CB went under and they sold / modified EXPORT radios and still could not stay open .... who is NEXT AES? ..... well here in tampabay that would not bother us we deal with HRO anyway.

We NEED to get the new bee's ( NO-CODES ) intrested and keep them they need HF bands and whats wrong with a small slice of 10 and full novice CW privies on the old novice bands .....( WELL FIST ? ) untill the code thing is settled???

Anyone got a better idea?

Bruce WA4GCH
on 6 since 66
SMIRK# 70
OOTC, QCWA
Life Member ARRL and still costing them money ....

[kd4mxe]

Quote[/b] (wa4gch @ Feb. 08 2006,05:55)]the lucky few that could do it, would not have any problem finding a clear Freq #to talk on thats for sure) # 73 Bill

Bill its that way now ...the novice bands are dead #FIST club is a dead issue they hold no intrest for the new ham .... as is the SK bunch ..... code is dead .... but at least SOME in the CW ranks ( SK's ) are tring to intrest the new bee's .... and not force that dieing mode on them.
.
Now I got started young at 14 I was in electronics school and got a license #( I WAS 14 WHEN I GOT MY FIRST LICENSE ) and 17 when i went back and got the next.... my novice expired and i was in school at that time.
40+ years later im still a active HAM but i can think of many long gone from the hobby.
The ARRL is killing us in 1977 they BLEW it with the 220 mhz CB proposal they fought so hard which would have put 80 fm CB channels on that band ..... and a large pool to get new hams from instead it went to #UPS who BOUGHT it and now you PAY to use it .....

I have been a life member for many years and a league member almost 40 and rarely agree with them and there TOO LITTLE TOO LATE additude. and lissing to a small vocal group of the 1920's at all costs ....

Look at CB radio it's DEAD the dealers are going broke BOB's CB went under and they sold / modified # EXPORT radios #and still could not stay open .... who is NEXT AES? ..... well here in tampabay that would not bother us we deal with HRO anyway.

We NEED to get the new bee's ( NO-CODES ) intrested and keep them #they need HF bands and whats wrong with a small slice of 10 and full novice CW privies on the old novice bands .....( WELL FIST ? ) #untill the code thing is settled???

Anyone got a better idea?

Bruce WA4GCH
on 6 since 66
SMIRK# 70
OOTC, QCWA
Life Member ARRL and still costing them money ....
wa4gch-All I'm hearing is CODE is the key and harder exams and we will get lots of new hams .... go tell that to a 14 year old TODAY and he will go back to roadrunner snickering at even the thought, ( yes you are Rightand these are the ones that should have to Retake the test every year and the code to , you got to under stand these are Hardliners I had to do it you got to do it people, you got a good post ,)73 Bill

[wu5e]

Very intresting, but the -3.1% mostly takes in account the surge of 194% in the 1940's and now they are rapidly becoming Silent Keys. I would take this with a gain of salt and not get wrap around the axle.


73's Jim
W5SSG

[K3UD]

Jim,

I agree that -3.1% is a rather small number but I think your context might be a bit off target.

Think about this:

In the decade of the 70s we had a growth rate of 49%. This dropped to 28% in the 80s which was a 43% decline in the growth rate. In the 90s the growth rate bounced back a bit and was at 36% for the decade. While this a 29% increase in the growth rate over the 80s number it was still a 27% less growth rate than we had in the 70s.

To put numbers to it we had: (round numbers)

130,000 additional hams in the 70s
109,000 in the 80s
180,000 in the 90s
-27,000 so far in 00s

If you were running a corporation and your CFO presented you with these numbers, how would you react?

The mystery is why did we go from three decades with seemingly healthy growth rates to the present decade where it all stopped and is actually declining. It is like someone threw a switch and turned off all the the growth.

I would speculate that the increase in growth rate in the 90s was largely due to the No Code Tech License coming online in the early 90s.

We do know that we have about (round number) 25,000 new hams being licensed each year. IF this number has been static for the last 5 years we would have had 125,000 new hams come in althouth I suspect that the actual number might be considerably higher because of the licensing changes in 2000.

IF this is anywhere near accurate it also means that we had more than 125,000 hams (or more) drop out for whatever reasons. Some of this can certainly be explained by the Silent Key factor and some of it is probably attributable to hams who lost interest and did not renew the license.

Any ham that came into the service in the 40s and is still alive is going to be at least aged between 69 and 90 years old. I guess an insurance actuary could tell you how many of the entire group that were licensed in the 40s have died. It should be pointed out that only 31,000 hams were licensed in the 40s.

The largest percentage of growth came in the 50s when 143,000 hams were licensed. It is probably this group which is making up most of the Silent Key Factor today.

I may have over analyzed the numbers a bit but the mystery remains.

73
George
K3UD

[w4khr]

I was licensed in the 70's while in high school. I think there was more incentive for young people then. That was before cell phones, computers, etc. Young people growing up in this high-tech age don't have the attraction to ham radio because the technology is not novel to them. I remember being the coolest guy in school because a friend of mine gave me a slim-line telephone set that he mounted a PTT switch in. My 2M rig gave me the first car phone any of my friends had ever seen. And I used to call girls on the way to pick them up for a date. Now that was something! And it was so neat staying up late chasing DX and talking to people in parts of the world I knew nothing about. Now kids have chat rooms.

I don't know the answer to how to turn the numbers around. But I understand them. If hams would volunteer some of their time in schools, we may see a new generation become interested again. Because when you actually see what goes on in ham radio, you see that it's totally different from all other forms of communication. But SK's are going to continue to drop the numbers. I'm not worried about it. Cheers....KR

[N2EY]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Feb. 08 2006,07:44)]
Quote[/b] ]In the decade of the 70s we had a growth rate of 49%. This dropped to 28% in the 80s which was a 43% decline in the growth rate. In the 90s the growth rate bounced back a bit and was at 36% for the decade. While this a 29% increase in the growth rate over the 80s number it was still a 27% less growth rate than we had in the 70s.



Yet the license requirements were toughest in the 1970s, eased up quite a bit in the 1980s, and then still more in the 1990s.

Quote[/b] ]The mystery is why did we go from three decades with seemingly healthy growth rates to the present decade where it all stopped and is actually declining. It is like someone threw a switch and turned off all the the growth.

Couple of reasons:

1) The change to 10 year license terms back about 1984, and the later vanity call rules meant that if someone dropped out, it could be a decade before that effect was felt in the numbers. Note that from 1989 to 1994, *NONE* of the then-current US ham licenses expired!

2) From the introduction of the Novice in 1951 until about 1970-something, almost all new hams were young people - teenagers mostly. All that changed in the 1970s and 1980s. I know *lots* of hams from the mid 1970s to the present who got their first license well beyond their teenage years. Many were empty-nesters and retirees.

Nothing wrong with that, of course! But unfortunately their time in amateur radio will be shorter than that of someone who got started in their teens.

3) The repeater boom of the 70s/80s brought a lot of 'honeydew hams' into the ARS - at least around here. These were folks who got licenses for personal/family comms. Nothing wrong with that! A lot of them went far beyond that sort of thing, but others did not. Those who didn't are now using cell phones and letting their licenses go.

Quote[/b] ]We do know that we have about (round number) 25,000 new hams being licensed each year. IF this number has been static for the last 5 years we would have had 125,000 new hams come in althouth I suspect that the actual number might be considerably higher because of the licensing changes in 2000.


The changes of 2000 only really affect upgrading.

Consider this:

Suppose we have 250,000 hams and 5% of them (12,500) drop out each year. If we have 25,000 new hams per year, we'll see 5% growth!

But if we have 500,000 hams and all the rest is the same, we'll just break even.

And if we have 750,000 hams and all the rest is the same, we'll have negative growth.

73 de Jim, N2EY

[KB1KIX]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,13:54)]Quote[/b] ]I have not posted these numbers since September 2005.

And I thank you not to post them again. #Ever. #It's a non-topic, as meaningless as it is useless.
What a troll!

I thank you for the effort it takes to compile and post this information.

I have referred to it a few times while speaking at clubs. You've saved me a good deal of time in preparing some material.

Kudos!

Jonathan

[K3UD]

Jim, (N2EY)

All good points on your posts.

We are at 661,000 hams and this seems to be the around the threshold where 25,000 new hams per year do not keep up and this is what generates the negative growth rate.

I like your thoughts as to why we had the the growth we did in the 70s 80s and 90s. We were also seeing growth up to April of 2003 which seems to imply that there were more hams coming into the service than were leaving. I agree that the switch to the 10 year license muddles up the picture a bit when looking back but this should have the effect of evening things out a bit as we go forward in time. I have noticed that over the past few months that the decline seems to be slowing down a bit.

As far as a possible influx of CBers during the 70s is concerned I only have some anecdotal evudence to support my reasoning.

I was a continuing education instructor for a local community college and we did licensing classes. The majority of our students were, in fact, CBers who wanted to get a ham license. Most of the remainder of the class were those who always wanted to be hams and who finally had the time and resources to do it. I should also point that there were very few younger people in the classes even though they were open to young people and advertised as such. Later, when I was doing classes at my home in the 80s, we started
to see some young people going after the Novice license.

Thanks for your insights as they bring great context to the numbers

73
George
K3UD

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]Odd... that number in your call sign gives me an idea of what region you are from. In fact people are reduced to numbers everyday... i.e. the auto manufacturer of the car you drive has put a dollar value as to what it thinks your life is worth compared to the economic value of building additional saftey measures. You have a SS#, FRN# are counted in the census, sit in a tax bracket based on your economic worth, etc. You sir are a number, and more importantly a statistic... just like the rest of us.

I for one welcome our statisical overlords.


You are joking when you say that aren't you?

If not, you are an ass for believing such.

(If you were joking kindly disregard above comment)

Chuck, AAMN

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]Quote (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,13:54)
Quote
I have not posted these numbers since September 2005.


And I thank you not to post them again. Ever. It's a non-topic, as meaningless as it is useless.

What a troll!


Is that really the most oringal you can be? If you can't come up with anything more orginal than the use of the term "troll" why do you even bother at all?

Chuck

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]Quote (aa1mn @ Feb. 07 2006,10:54)
Quote
I have not posted these numbers since September 2005.


And I thank you not to post them again. Ever. It's a non-topic, as meaningless as it is useless.

I find these posts about licensing trends very interesting.

Those that protest have their heads buried somewhere.

And where would that be?

Chuck, AA1MN

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]Just to waste a little time and I know you would get all worked up about it. Now calm down a bit and remember to watch the pretty numbers dancing in our every day life.
KC0OFZ

Is that the limit of your capacity?

[ky5u]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 08 2006,11:17)]Quote[/b] ]Just to waste a little time and I know you would get all worked up about it. Now calm down a bit and remember to watch the pretty numbers dancing in our every day life.
KC0OFZ

Is that the limit of your capacity?


Chuck, AA1MN
I took the liberty to fix your message. You forgot to "bold" your type.

[K1HAH]

I for one appreciate the numbers being published. It would be interesting to see how the ARRL numbers compare and if they are gaining or losing ground. John Callaghan K1HAH

[KC0OFZ]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 08 2006,11:17)]Quote[/b] ]Just to waste a little time and I know you would get all worked up about it. #Now calm down a bit and remember to watch the pretty numbers dancing in our every day life.
KC0OFZ

Is that the limit of your capacity?
Wow, an attempt at an insult me. You are really too kind.

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]You are really too kind.

I know, but thank you for taking the time to point this out. #The check is the mail ... it's blank, marked void, and is made out to an account not in my name that is no longer active but it should arrive by next Wedensday at the latest.

Chuck, AA1MN http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[n7spy]

Quote[/b] ]Quote[/b] ]We're not that different from you: we also want Amateur Radio to have (in business terms) a good Return On Investment.
Well, if you really mean that literally, I'd say we are VERY different!!

I never think about a "Return on Investment" for amateur radio. I got into it because it intrigued me. I promise I've spent far more time, effort, sweat and money on amateur radio than I ever expect to get out of it. And that's OK, because I enjoy it and it still intrigues me.

Oh goodness no... not in the literal/monetary sense.. just want to get *something* out of it.

So far that "something" has been the satisfaction and Cool Factor™ of working public events with the local EmComm group. I've met really cool people, and learned about what to do and what *not* to do. So, so far I'm getting my ROI

Quote[/b] ]Quote[/b] ]We also want to have fun, we also want to serve the public, we also want to go on the air and enjoy ourselves...

Fun, we agree on. Amateur radio is still fun, no doubt about it.

Public service? I never heard of anyone getting into amateur radio with public service as a goal until recently. Of course we pitched in when we could - and I have certificates to show stashed away somewhere. But public service was not a goal. The hams I grew up with considered their public service as just being a good neighbor. Until the last 10 years, I never met a ham that was proud of doing public service - they just did it because they were willing to help when needed. And we certainly never asked for a certificate!

That's why *I* got into the hobby: to serve the public. And I'm proud of it.. not to the point of being arrogant, mind you, I just love doing it and talking about it. Certificates and too many recognitions defeat the purpose of doing it 'because I can' #(a 'thank you' at the end of the event is plenty)

Quote[/b] ]Quote[/b] ]but we also want to be respected, accepted, and tolerated while we catch up with you.

Respect? I always thought that was something one earns. It never entered into our reasons for being a ham. Accepted? I've found that most everyone is accepted based on their abilities and behavior. Not just in amateur radio, but in most of life. Tolerated? Sure, the older fellows tolerated us.

They also indoctrinated and kidded us and corrected us when we were wrong. And we accepted that - which is how respect is earned. And we got better - which made it easier for them to tolerate us.

And we also accepted them. That goes a long way towards respect, acceptance and tolerance, too. And anyone who who enters amateur radio with the attitude to earn respect, accept others, and tolerate others as much as one wants to be tolerated, won't have any problem now, either.

But those who enter amateur radio for the sole purpose of return on investment and public service and expect instant respect, acceptance and tolerance without giving the same in kind, is sure to be disappointed.

And that's a shame - amateur radio is too great to get disappointed over.

I can't agree more with you on the respect part: I don't want your respect because I think I deserve it... I'd rather get it by busting my tush off by doing... well, whatever it is I have to do to deserve your respect *hehe*

So far my only dissapointment has been money-wise.. or rather, lack of money to get on the waves and do more... but, hopefully, I'll be fixing that later this year http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

Speaking of which...

Quote[/b] ]Quote[/b] ]We newbies are not asking you to hold our hands during the learning process... we're just asking that you'll be there to help us when we need help... and we'll sure-as-hell be there when you need us http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
That's good to hear. If I can help, let me know.

Does this mean that you can help me with my Morse Code? #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

No, really, I'll be needing help with Morse Code later this month #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[K0RGR]

I think that there may a correlation to the entry age of the newcomers. As someone else pointed out, prior to the 80's most newbies were youngsters. Post 1980, most were older people. Now, 20+ years later, we are probably seeing some of the results of this, as the older people who joined the hobby in the early 80's are becoming silent keys or moving into situations where they don't find it reasonable to attempt ham radio.

We are probably getting a much smaller percentage of the technically-oriented youth than we did before. Competition from other 'technical' pursuits is a big part of it, as are the attitudes of non-ham parents, who are largely willing to pay for the technology that might help Junior get a job some day, but are very dubious about spending it on radio gear, when the career path in radio is much less obvious.

I think sometimes we are marketing to the wrong audience in our efforts to attract youth. We should be going after the parents, demonstrating that ham radio is a useful, beneficial pastime that stimulates interest in the sciences, engineering, public service, and other related careers. If we got the parents cheering for us, instead of cursing us, it would help.

While I think that it's time to at least make some HF priveleges available without the code, I don't agree with reducing the technical knowledge required, in fact, I think it should be strengthened somewhat.

[N2EY]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Feb. 08 2006,10:26)]
Quote[/b] ]We are at 661,000 hams and this seems to be the around the threshold where 25,000 new hams per year do not keep up and this is what generates the negative growth rate.


Agreed!

Let's see....if stability were reached at, say, 625,000 hams, that would mean we were losing 4% a year.


Quote[/b] ]I like your thoughts as to why we had the the growth we did in the 70s 80s and 90s.

Thanks. I don't think there was one big reason, but rather a lot of little reasons all adding up.

Quote[/b] ]I agree that the switch to the 10 year license muddles up the picture a bit when looking back but this should have the effect of evening things out a bit as we go forward in time.

I think it had a significant effect. We went through a 5 year period (1989-1994) with no expirations at all!

And now, if someone gets a license but loses interest, they are carried on the books for 10 years.

Another significant effect is the renewal and vanity license rules. I remember a time when you could renew every time you modified your license, so people who moved or upgraded more than once every 5 years kept resetting the clock. Now, you can only renew 90 days or less before the license expiration, or up to two years afterward. Makes it *very* easy to miss a renewal!

The vanity rules are another factor. Getting a vanity license is the only way to get a renewal outside the 90 day/2 year window. When the vanity rules last changed (1994?) a whole bunch of folks went for vanity calls, which put a significant bump in the expiration distribution.

Quote[/b] ]As far as a possible influx of CBers during the 70s is concerned I only have some anecdotal evudence to support my reasoning.

I was a continuing education instructor for a local community college and we did licensing classes. The majority of our students were, in fact, CBers who wanted to get a ham license. Most of the remainder of the class were those who always wanted to be hams and who finally had the time and resources to do it. I should also point that there were very few younger people in the classes even though they were open to young people and advertised as such. Later, when I was doing classes at my home in the 80s, we started
to see some young people going after the Novice license.



I saw a lot of the same thing in the 70s and 80s. We got a lot of good hams that way, and some who had to unlearn a few bad habits....

73 de Jim, N2EY

[n2nov]

"I for one appreciate the numbers being published. It would be interesting to see how the ARRL numbers compare and if they are gaining or losing ground. John Callaghan K1HAH"

Actually, the ARRL figures have been dropping like a stone over at least the past six years! Right now their membership figures are something like 17% of the licensed hams on the FCC books. The ARRL figures are only reported once a year in the November issue. But still, it is a significant snapshot of the average ham being either disappointed or not impressed with the ARRL. And I am saying this as a life member and former DEC of NYC (pushed out by local section politics).

[ke6irp]

of course the give aways don't work------ the ars is fine--- except for the fact that the dumbells over at the arrl want to give it all away and dumb it down so low that the lid circus will camp out on all bands--- and, this without a stictch of evidence that giveaways and dumbdowns do anything positive--- let the spin doctors begin--- post away....weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

[wa4gch]

But still, it is a significant snapshot of the average ham being either disappointed or not impressed with the ARRL. And I am saying this as a life member and former DEC of NYC (pushed out by local section politics)

They charge 40 bucks a year not many have that kind of money to toss around ..... Politics is alive and well and they live in the 1940's ....
in 1995 QST printed about 190,000 in 2005 they print 105,000 ....

Not looking good .....

[n7dc]

I contend that the Novice was what helped build up our numbers. Did you notice how, after it has been killed, the Novice numbers have gone down drastically? The last Novice class I taught, taught me something. I was talking about the formula for a half wave dipole and explained how the current and the voltage lay along the drawing of the antenna on the blackboard. Gave them the formula, on the board, and said now tell me how long this antenna should be for 7.2 MHZ? Looking around at these 11-14 year old Boy Scouts, there was a puzzled look from all their faces. When I asked what was wrong, the response knocked my socks off: "But Mr. Douglas, we dont have calculators." RIGHT! Not a ONE of them could do long devision by paper and pencil. I was, and am, dumbfounded. This is the cream of the crop of youth out of our schools, and they dont learn that? Also, they barely teach spelling, saying it is OK as long as they get the idea of the word across! Say What?
The communicty college I just retired from suffers, as do the universities and other institutions of higher learning. Higher? We had to teach reading, writing and maths, just to get them qualified to take Freshmen classes on each of those subjects. Most wind up with at least one extra semester before graduation, because of the lack of public schools doing their jobs.

By the way - IQ is not dependant on education. Mensa should not be suffering. Ones IQ is just there. Yes it can be raised by teaching "thinking" but it either is or isnt.
Danny

[ac7k]

The numbers are interesting... however what I find interesting is, how cool Amateur Radio was back then. I love to hear the stories. I am 30 years old, hold a Technician's License, have passed my General Theory, and will have passed Morse code on February 25th. I think Amateur Radio is the most fun hobby I have ever come across. Learning all this stuff is so much fun. Guess I was born 30+ years too late to see the Hay-Day of Ham. Oh well, I do enjoy it and will try to encourage others into the fun.

[wu5e]

Quote[/b] (KE7EDW @ Feb. 08 2006,21:08)]The numbers are interesting... however what I find interesting is, how cool Amateur Radio was back then. #I love to hear the stories. #I am 30 years old, hold a Technician's License, have passed my General Theory, and will have passed Morse code on February 25th. #I think Amateur Radio is the most fun hobby I have ever come across. #Learning all this stuff is so much fun. #Guess I was born 30+ years too late to see the Hay-Day of Ham. #Oh well, I do enjoy it and will try to encourage others into the fun.
Good Luck on your CW Test

have passed my General Theory, and will have passed Morse code on February 25th.


Hope to work you on HF

73's de Jim
W5SSG
[B]

[KG8FV]

Why bother with this stuff? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[KC0OFZ]

Quote[/b] (aa1mn @ Feb. 08 2006,13:59)]Quote[/b] ]You are really too kind.

I know, but thank you for taking the time to point this out. #The check is the mail ... it's blank, marked void, and is made out to an account not in my name that is no longer active but it should arrive by next Wedensday at the latest.

Chuck, AA1MN http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif
As soon as it quits bouncing I will look at it http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[AL7QQ]

Quote[/b] (n7spy @ Feb. 07 2006,13:28)]Keep being pessimist...

Continue to push aside any Ham who would not do Amateur Radio the way you do..

Mock those Hams who dare to use different equipment than you...

Keep an air of arrogance every time a newbie comes to you with what *you* consider a stupid question...

... and you will be part of the reason why the generations after yours think Amateur Radio stinks.

We newbies are not asking you to hold our hands during the learning process... we're just asking that you'll be there to help us when we need help... and we'll sure-as-hell be there when you need us http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

We're not that different from you: we also want Amateur Radio to have (in business terms) a good Return On Investment. We also want to have fun, we also want to serve the public, we also want to go on the air and enjoy ourselves... but we also want to be respected, accepted, and tolerated while we catch up with you.

And to the Ham to said that these stats are a waste of time: you're wasting no one else's time/bandwidth but your own. If you think that these statistics are a waste of time, then don't read them. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif
Actually these are some of the reasons I came very close to exiting the HAM Radio community in my earlier years. #It's very discouraging when you have an interest in this hobby thats new to you and everytime you've got a question everyone looks at you as if you're growing a third eye. #I never had the availability of a competent Elmer either. I sure wish I had. #It's been my expereince few HAMs will help each other as well. #When it came time for Operating Class upgrades I never received any kind of guidance. #I did it all on my own. #The only exposure during that process I ever received was the VE Teams when they either said I passed or failed. Nothing bothers me more to go to a VE Session and see the team strutting around like the beginning of a #### fight. (Sticking thier chests out and drumming thier chests with thier wings.) I'm not whinning, Actually I'm pretty proud of myself for all the hard work I put in to where I eventually arrived. #I passed my 22 WPM but failed the written along time ago for my Extra and stayed an Advanced Class Operator for nearly nine years before even retesting, because I was wondering if the hobby was worth it or not. #It took a lot of soul searching for sure. #I still think it is a good hobby and about the only way you can salvage it is by cultivating the population from with in and hope to get lucky on a few casts and pull in some new blood. #The other thing that drives the newbies away is the cost of used equipment. #Especially when the current owners are trying to get more for the equipment than it face value. #I was given my first rig by an older HAM with one stipulation and I upheld the deal. #That was when I could afford a better radio that I give it to a new HAM and I did just that. #Anyway if we don't actively recruit, train receive the new prsopective HAM's we're going to have trouble keeping the hobby we have currently. # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif #I'm working to my part in my own household being the father of eight kids. #So far I have two licensed and working on the rest. #Some have the interest some don't, but I haven't given up on them yet.
http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/cool.gif 73's Jeff AL7QQ

[wa4dou]

While I certainly don't think it behooves us as amateur's to mistreat our fellow hams, it is important to remember that once upon a time it wasn't necessarily all that important to elmer or be elmered. I was elmered by the writers of text books, books, magazines, and on the air observation/participation and by rubbing shoulders with others. The pace of life was slower 40-50 years ago and we hadn't be introduced to the concept of instant gratifications yet. Crystal radios led to broadcast band listening/dx'ing which led to short wave listening and discovering amateur radio on the air and reading about it in Popular Electronics and Electronics Illustrated and finally CQ and 73 magazines, later QST. Much knowledge was learned intuitively and by mentally conecting the dots. I wasn't raised by helpless people and learned at an early age how to read and teach myself and it didn't hurt to have a burning interest. I believe this was true then and remains true today except for relatively low numbers who require taking by the hand. Also we didn't come to amateur radio expecting to be loved. I know, I know, I'm not displaying the proper attitude according to some of you. Well, what do you expect? Most of us were self taught, not elmered, and it wasn't particularly tough either. As a 9 year old, I knew what I wanted to do and be in life and 49 years later I'm still doing it for which I am very grateful and fortunate. You couldn't have run many of us off with a stick if you'd tried. We didn't challenge the test requirements for a license, we just did it.

[wa4dou]

Some say amateur radio is dying. They point to an increasing average age of amateur's as proof. How come no one mentions that official statistics reveal that our whole society in America has an increasing average age? Could the demographics of growth in the '50's - '70's have been affected by the post war baby boom? Amateur radio does not appeal to the masses. Today, instead of a technical pursuit that appeals to the scientifically interested among us, prosperity and increased leisure time have caused amateur radio to become more in the league of entertainment electronics. As entertainment electronics it is not seen as a forum for technical investigation but as glorified cb. Glorified cb doesn't require you to know anything and thats the direction of amateur radio today and even the arguement of some of those that would take it there.

[aa1mn]

Quote[/b] ]Quote (aa1mn @ Feb. 08 2006,11:17)
Quote
Just to waste a little time and I know you would get all worked up about it. Now calm down a bit and remember to watch the pretty numbers dancing in our every day life.
KC0OFZ


Is that the limit of your capacity?


Chuck, AA1MN

I took the liberty to fix your message. You forgot to "bold" your type.



And who said there was no courtesy left in this world of ours?

Chuck, AA1MN

[N2EY]

Quote[/b] (wa4dou @ Feb. 09 2006,10:43)]
Quote[/b] ]Some say amateur radio is dying. They point to an increasing average age of amateur's as proof. How come no one mentions that official statistics reveal that our whole society in America has an increasing average age?

I agree 100%. In fact, I'll ask some more questions:

1) How is the "average age" computed? The FCC database has birthdates for some but not all licensees. Informal surveys and polls don't necessarily reach a representative sample of hams.

2) Which "average" are they referring to? The median age (half are older and half younger)? Or the arithmetic average, where you add up all the ages and divide by the number of people? Or something else?

3) Is the age distribution of hams shaped like the classic bell curve? Or something else?

4) How do they account for the change to 10 year licenses, which would push up the 'average age' all by itself? (With longer license terms, a ham who has dropped out but not cancelled his/her license will be carried on the books longer, thereby pulling the averages up).

Quote[/b] ]Could the demographics of growth in the '50's - '70's have been affected by the post war baby boom?

Well, maybe.

The 'baby boom' is usually considered to have occurred from 1946 to 1964. Most baby boomers were too young (or not even born yet) to really be interested in ham radio in the 1940s and 1950s. 'Boomers' were more of a factor in the '60s & '70s.

Quote[/b] ]Amateur radio does not appeal to the masses.

And in truth, it never has! Even in the supposed 'good old days', hams were a much smaller percentage of the population than today.

73 de Jim, N2EY

[k7vin]

The numbers are interesting but I think the future of Ham radio is a bright one.As things change so will our hobby.First off the dropping of the code as a requirment will bring many new Hams into the hobby, but also it will bring many Hams back.Yea I know people will say that 5 words a minute are nothing #but for alot of people it is very tough to hear different tones or some may have learning disability's and others are stroke victoms.
#Also IRLP, ECHOLINK and other compter radio programs will help bring people in.If the new bill in congress passes that will lessen the restrictions for people that live in HOA's it #will bring many in.Also with the recent hurricane's and the good PR we have gotten . I feel the snowballing will also call for more radio's and better compitition in the radio marketing and this will bring better and less expensive rigs.I know at first the prices will be high but then they will drop like other electronics.
# #Boy am I optimistic or what! But I do see this hobby having a new resurgence.
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #73 to all,
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # K7VIN # VINNY

[KA8OCN]

I think its simple, we are not replacing the Silent Keys as they pass away. There is more going on for young people to be interested in and to spend their time on.

I worry about how low can our numbers go before the Goverment says "We can sell all the spectrum for money" and how they could justify it is it will create x many new jobs.

All kinds of wireless services could be set up on our UHF, 220, and VFH frequencys. I don't in any way want to see that happen but when you look at the total number of people in our Great Country Amateur Radio is such a small number of people that there is nothing we could do about it.

I see the numbers for licensed Hams, I wonder how many Active Hams we have, I know 3 myself that never operate and dont even have equipment set up and running.

I am almost 50 myself and I hope that I continue to have the right to operate till the end of my life.

73's
Delbert McCord KA8OCN

[n0iu]

Quote[/b] (n2nov @ Feb. 08 2006,15:15)]"I for one appreciate the numbers being published. It would be interesting to see how the ARRL numbers compare and if they are gaining or losing ground. John Callaghan K1HAH"

Actually, the ARRL figures have been dropping like a stone over at least the past six years! Right now their membership figures are something like 17% of the licensed hams on the FCC books. The ARRL figures are only reported once a year in the November issue. But still, it is a significant snapshot of the average ham being either disappointed or not impressed with the ARRL. And I am saying this as a life member and former DEC of NYC (pushed out by local section politics).
Here's the answer from the first meeting of 2006 of the ARRL Administration and Finance Committee --

Membership Concerns
Membership decline continues to be bothersome. Membership has declined by 2% so far this year. We must turn this trend around! The 2006 Plan includes a significant effort in that direction. I hope you will give it your full support.

The full report is at http://www.arrl.org/announce/reports-2006/january/
Click on the first link to Administration and Finance and it will bring up a Word document

[K3UD]

N2EY
Jim, As you say, computing the average or median age of the hams in the database is, at best, problematical since the ages data is now incomplete. Probably the best indicater we have comes from the ARRL's ReadEx study which put the 'average' age as 55 years old. The median should be somewhat less than that, but I would not attempt to put a number on it.

K7VIN
Vinny, We did drop the code and the NCT license now accounts for about 88% of all new hams who get licensed for the first time. As the numbers show though, there seems to be little movement from Tech/+ to higher classes. The General and Advanced declines every month (because of drop outs or upgrade to Extra) and while the Extra increases a bit each month the increase does not offset the overall decline of the other classes.

I suspect that IF the code requirement is dropped that we could see some immediate gains in the numbers kind of like we saw back in the early 90s. It will remain to be see if this really will happen and if it has any long term positive effect on the numbers.

N0IU,
Yes, the ARRL is losing membership. My read is that as the ARS numbers decline their membership will decline. The big hope that the NCTs would join in massive numbers in the 90s never happened and is still not happening. This has always been a puzzle that they have never figured out. Recently they have done several things that have ticked off members and non members.

1. Essentially promising the Tech/+ a free upgrade to General without any testing... which the FCC vetoed

2. Pushing a beginner license that would have given existing Novices and newcomers a decent amount of HF privileges. FCC again says no.

3. Not fighting for retention of the code requirement. This probably had the largest negative effect among existing members. (along with the promised NCT upgrade)

4. The present regulation by bandwith petition and the way it came to be.

All of this has menbers wondering what is going on at HQ and asking why they are so out of touch with the membership.

73
George
K3UD

[n0iu]

And speaking declining membership, apparently not everyone in Newington agrees that the band plan by bandwidth proposal is a good idea. The Administration & Finance Meeting that was held on April 21, 2005, the minutes reflect --

"5. Declining membership—All

Will there be a negative impact of bandwidth proposal on membership? Concern was expressed that we are considering the bandwidth proposal from the membership standpoint, rather than considering what is best for Amateur Radio. The proposal is good to attract comment even though there are a few individuals who stir the pot. The challenge is to educate the audience and remind them that at this point the proposal is a recommendation of the Executive Committee. Winlink seems to be sparking many comments on both sides."

I wonder who these individuals are who are "stirring the pot" ?

Scott NØIU

[K3UD]

Scott,

I think that would be any of us who thinks that there are some bad ideas included with the proposal and either posts on the forums or expresses concern with their division director.

Their comment on what is best for Amateur Radio vs what is best for the membership is telling. I wonder why the ARRL thinks it knows what is best for amateur radio? Are they any smarter than we are or do they have information that we don't have and as such the membership can not be counted on to do the right thing?

73
George
K3UD

[ke5hdf]

I do like the thread !! The numbers do need to be interpreted and that is tricky part.
Personnally, I think there is probably a combination of reasons why ARS and other academic organisations have seen a drop in membership. Some are discussed in this thread, but one that is not mentioned is that our time may be consumed by other things more now than before.
As for makeing the entry test easier ... I vote NO. If we are to maintain quality, integrity, civility, and some sense of protocols, the test is already a simple as it should get. and this coming from a guy who has had a license for 3 weeks !!

Ralph KE5HDF

[K3UD]

KA8OCN
Delbert,

I don't think I would worry too much about a certain number being the magic number where the FCC decides to pull the plug. Presently, licensed hams make up more of a percentage of the overall population than they ever did. This percentage is almost double what it was in the 50s and 60s (which is considered the "golden" era of ham radio by some of us) I also wonder about the number of 'active' hams. Gross licensing totals is one thing, it is those who use the license that really matters.

What I worry about is how the whole ham radio experience could change if the bandwidth petitions are approved as written. RM-11305 and RM-11306 are both a recipe for possible disaster within our bands that have the potential to drive 'maintream' everyday hams away because of unmanageable interference problems and spectrum wars. To me, this is the single largest potential threat to the service, and not the declining numbers.

73
George
K3UD

[K4JF]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Feb. 10 2006,06:06)]Recently they have done several things that have ticked off members and non members.

1. .....

2. Pushing a beginner license that would have given existing Novices and newcomers a decent amount of HF privileges. FCC again says no.

73
George
K3UD
How would that "tick off" hams, George? It is sorely needed, and most hams I talk with agree. There is no entry-level license today. There is no way for the newcomer to gradually work their way in, as we could do years ago. My Novice years were some of the best in ham radio!

There absolutely SHOULD be a new Novice license. We will never reverse the decline until we make it interesting for newcomers. The only logical objection comes from the OTs who want to keep it an exclusive club. The ARRL was exactly right on that one.

[N2EY]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Feb. 10 2006,06:06)]
Quote[/b] ]N2EY
Jim, As you say, computing the average or median age of the hams in the database is, at best, problematical since the ages data is now incomplete. Probably the best indicater we have comes from the ARRL's ReadEx study which put the 'average' age as 55 years old. The median should be somewhat less than that, but I would not attempt to put a number on it.


IMHO, an incorrect number is worse than no number at all, because wrong decisions can be made based on an incorrect number that you think is correct.

Quote[/b] ]K7VIN
Vinny, We did drop the code and the NCT license now accounts for about 88% of all new hams who get licensed for the first time. As the numbers show though, there seems to be little movement from Tech/+ to higher classes. The General and Advanced declines every month (because of drop outs or upgrade to Extra) and while the Extra increases a bit each month the increase does not offset the overall decline of the other classes.


The total number of Techs/Tech Pluses has dropped considerably since the 2000 changes. Some of that is upgrading, some is dropout.

Quote[/b] ]I suspect that IF the code requirement is dropped that we could see some immediate gains in the numbers kind of like we saw back in the early 90s. It will remain to be see if this really will happen and if it has any long term positive effect on the numbers.


The requirements for various classes of license were considerably reduced in 2000. Both written and code testing underwent big reductions - but that did not bring in lots of new hams. It did cause a short-term burst of upgrades.

Seems pretty obvious to me that the numbers problem lies elsewhere than test requirements.

Quote[/b] ]N0IU,
Yes, the ARRL is losing membership. My read is that as the ARS numbers decline their membership will decline. The big hope that the NCTs would join in massive numbers in the 90s never happened and is still not happening. This has always been a puzzle that they have never figured out.

Yet it's easy to understand.

In the 'bad old days', most new hams started out with Novices, on 80/40/15 CW with simple, low power equipment. Even before the Novice was created in 1951, such a beginning was usually the rule.

That sort of start gave most new hams a 'long distance/national perspective', as it were. A beginner in those days would mostly work hams s/he'd never meet in person.

The repeater boom and the emergence of the Tech as the usual entry license changed all that. Most new hams started out on VHF/UHF FM voice - with a local perspective. A beginner today has a high possibility of meeting most of the hams they work on the air.

The results are obvious. If your focus is mostly local, a distant national organization doesn't offer much.

Quote[/b] ] Recently they have done several things that have ticked off members and non members.


Not just recently!

One characteristic a lot of hams seem to have is the ability to hold a grudge for a very long time. If the ARRL did something that ticked them off, they never forget - even if the folks responsible are long gone. I know hams who are still ticked off about 'incentive licensing' - even though it happened decades before they were licensed.

Quote[/b] ]1. Essentially promising the Tech/+ a free upgrade to General without any testing... which the FCC vetoed


Actually, ARRL *proposed* (not promised) free upgrades to General for Novices and Tech Pluses only. They weren't the only ones proposing such free upgrades, either. FCC just said no.

Quote[/b] ]2. Pushing a beginner license that would have given existing Novices and newcomers a decent amount of HF privileges. FCC again says no.


Again, that's a *proposal*. I think it was based on the idea that the Tech gives lopsided privileges - everything above 30 Mhz, nothing below.

Does it really make sense to have the beginner license allow 1500W on 'meat cooking frequencies' but nothing at all below 30 MHz? Is that the best way?

Quote[/b] ]3. Not fighting for retention of the code requirement. This probably had the largest negative effect among existing members. (along with the promised NCT upgrade)


Someone else would say "not fighting for the elimination of the code requirement"!

From everything I've seen, both ARRL members and nonmembers are divided on that issue. No matter what stance is taken on the issue, a bunch of folks are going to be really ticked off. So what you get from a mixed outfit like ARRL is a compromise.

Quote[/b] ]4. The present regulation by bandwith petition and the way it came to be.


The big question is: How could ARRL have done it better?
Surveys? Polls?

Quote[/b] ]All of this has menbers wondering what is going on at HQ and asking why they are so out of touch with the membership.



What would make them more in touch?

What, exactly, could ARRL do to improve the situation?

Sure, lots of hams don't like the bandwidth proposal, or parts of it. But lots of others *do* like parts of it. So the various directors and committees hear a mixed bag of commentary, and put together a compromise that nobody really likes.

Look at RM-11305 - is it better than RM-11306?

--

It seems to me that one of the biggest problems ARRL has is that the directors and vice directors are - by default - those who have the time and interest.

Most hams - including me - simply have too many other responsibilities (work/home/family/church/community) to even think of taking on being a director or vice director. That's just the reality of life for many modern hams.

Those who can take it on, IMHO, tend to be "people persons" more than techno types. Extroverts more than introverts - talkers more than listeners. Empty-nesters, retired/semiretired, etc. Those aren't bad things of themselves, but you see how it limits the selection.

73 de Jim, N2EY

[n0iu]

Quote[/b] (K4JF @ Feb. 10 2006,07:50)]There is no entry-level license today. #There is no way for the newcomer to gradually work their way in, as we could do years ago. #My Novice years were some of the best in ham radio!

There absolutely SHOULD be a new Novice license. #We will never reverse the decline until we make it interesting for newcomers.
Exactly how will giving Technicians enhanced HF privileges make their amateur radio experience more interesting? Yeah, the current Novice privileges stink, no argument on that. But what kind of licensing system does the ARS have? INCENTIVE licensing! The General Class, where there are real HF privileges on ALL bands, can be had with one 35 question multiple-guess test (for which all of the questions and answers are published) and a very easy 5 WPM code test.

With the ARRL plan for the new Novices, they will get a little more space on 10 meters plus a few crumbs of phone on 15, 40 and 80 meters and nothing on#the real workhorse of HF - 20 meters. But there is always a price to pay for these so-called enhanced privileges. The maximum power on 15, 40 and 80 meters will be reduced from 200 watts to 100 watts. This is no big deal because most HF rigs are 100 watts anyway. The real tragedy is that the maximum power on 10 meters is reduced to 50 WATTS - a reduction of 75%! The reason? So that Technicians will not have to be tested on HF exposure limitations! Heaven forbid we should expect Technicians to actually learn anything about ham radio!

Scott NØIU

[K3UD]

Jim,

The ARRL is in a no win situation.

About everything that they have proposed in the recent past has been shot down by the FCC. This would seem to render the ARRL as impotent in both the eyes of the membership as well as those non members who were counting on the ARRL to deliver what they did propose. I am not certain that until recently anyone really thought that the FCC would veto or not act on as many proposals that the ARRL sent to the FCC as they did.

I think that this somewhat changes the dynamic between the ARRL, its membership, and any other non member hams who were sure that the ARRL could somehow give them free upgrades, a new beginner's license, a retention of the code for at least the Extra Class etc. The next group to be dissapointed might well be the digital people, depending on how the FCC handles the issue.

If the digital people get what they want, then we might see the hams who use the two primary modes get upset if they have to share the bandwidth they use with incompatible modes and potential threats of interference that you can not readily identify. Again, it is a no win for the ARRL and more members reconsider their membership status at the next renewal period.

I did notice that the comments relating to RM-11305 and 306 were overwhelmingly against what they were proposing in their present form.


K4JF,

I worded that rather badly. I am all for a beginners license that grants meaningful VHF and HF privileges. This was part of a larger proposal that included the NCT grandfather to General which I oppossed. My position is that existing Novices and Techs should initially populate the beginner license. The point I was trying to make was that the ARRL proposed it which probably raised some hopes among some hams and those who would become hams, but the FCC did not act on it.

73
George
K3UD

[wa4dou]

K4JF said:
There absolutely SHOULD be a new Novice license. We will never reverse the decline until we make it interesting for newcomers. The only logical objection comes from the OTs who want to keep it an exclusive club. The ARRL was exactly right on that one.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I don't believe that the OT's want to keep the club "exclusive" at all. Talk like that merely serves to make the divisions deeper. Think for a moment. If we have to gain members by giving greater privileges continually, how is amateur radio and the public good served? We've already learned that the defacto entry level license is the technician class and its so easy that many show up licensed with absolutely no clue what amateur radio is about. Is it any wonder that our "national organization" is showing signs of being equally lost, if one has to wonder where the dividing line is between amateur radio and the Internet and email? IRLP is a good case in point. No practical difference between that and two cordless phones talking over a long distance telephone line but hailed by some as a great technological marvel. Imitation ham radio contrived to satisfy the desire to chase dx without any effort expended to pursue the real thing after the most modest exam that there has ever been to gain entry. PC, a fear of offending, and seemingly a fear of recognizing reality has amateur radio by the throat. Amateur radio isn't growing anymore unless you give away the license and even that growth won't last for long. The real mistake was made decades ago when it was thought desirable to "grow" ham radio. Ham radio grew by itself on its own back then. Now it won't grow no matter how attractive you make it? The answers are obvious.

[k4kyv]

Notice that the biggest growth spurt of all was between 1950 and 1960. The numbers show a steady growth from 1930 thru 1950, and again from 1960 to 2000, but the number trebled during the decade of the 50's.

I suspect the major factor was the introduction of the Novice class. Until 1951, getting a ham licence was relatively difficult. You had to reach 13 wpm code speed cold, without over-the-air practice. When the Novice came along, that made entry into ham radio much easier. I recall an article in Parents magazine in 1954, extolling the virtues of ham radio as an ideal hobby for the whole family. The article rubric referred to ham radio as an "Amazing new hobby." They went on to explain that ham radio had existed since the very beginnig of radio itself, but that the Novice class ticket had just made it accessible to the average person.

Add to the novice licence the availability of WW2 surplus. It took a few years after the end of the war for things to settle down and for postwar prosperity to really kick in, then with the new novice ticket and abundant, cheap surplus equipment, often sold for pennies on the dollar, there we had a formula for explosive growth. It took about 10 years for that explosion to run its course.

[N2EY]

Quote[/b] (k4kyv @ Feb. 10 2006,13:49)]
Quote[/b] ]Notice that the biggest growth spurt of all was between 1950 and 1960. The numbers show a steady growth from 1930 thru 1950, and again from 1960 to 2000, but the number trebled during the decade of the 50's.


Depends how you define growth.

In percentage terms, the most growth occured in the 1930s.

In terms of new hams, the 1990s yielded 180,000 new hams, compared to 143,000 in the 1950s.

Quote[/b] ]I suspect the major factor was the introduction of the Novice class. Until 1951, getting a ham licence was relatively difficult. You had to reach 13 wpm code speed cold, without over-the-air practice. When the Novice came along, that made entry into ham radio much easier.

True to a point.

But the Novice had a stick to go with the carrot. The original Novice had extremely limited privileges and was a one-year, one-time license. It was only meant to serve as a learning tool, not as a permanent license class.

If a Novice did not upgrade when the Novice year was up, s/he was off the ham bands until a higher class license was earned.


Quote[/b] ]Add to the novice licence the availability of WW2 surplus. It took a few years after the end of the war for things to settle down and for postwar prosperity to really kick in, then with the new novice ticket and abundant, cheap surplus equipment, often sold for pennies on the dollar, there we had a formula for explosive growth. It took about 10 years for that explosion to run its course.

The Novice license's limited privs helped this along, too. With only a few bands, 75 watts, crystal control, and CW only, a Novice transmitter could be very simple and still be 'competitive'.

Yet consider what happened in the 1930s:

In 1929, new regulations for US amateurs brought big changes. Back then 95% or more of US ham activity was on 160, 80, 40 and 20 meters. The 1929 regs drastically reduced the width of 40 and 20, and required stable, clean signals that were a quantum leap above what many hams had on the air in 1928.

On top of that, the Great Depression ravaged the economy.

Yet in those years, the number of US hams almost tripled - and most of that growth happened between 1929 and 1936, the worst years of the Depression.

73 de Jim, N2EY

[K3UD]

I recall reading in my archive of old QSTs tha the upgrade ratio of Novices in the 50s - 60s and as late as 1972 was hovering around 70%. This seems to be pretty decent. What I don't know though is 70% of what. Has anyone ever seen any statistics as to how many Novices were being licensed back then?

73
George
K3UD

[KC0OFZ]

Quote[/b] (k7vin @ Feb. 09 2006,19:28)]The numbers are interesting but I think the future of Ham radio is a bright one.As things change so will our hobby.First off the dropping of the code as a requirment will bring many new Hams into the hobby, but also it will bring many Hams back.Yea I know people will say that 5 words a minute are nothing #but for alot of people it is very tough to hear different tones or some may have learning disability's and others are stroke victoms.
#Also IRLP, ECHOLINK and other compter radio programs will help bring people in.If the new bill in congress passes that will lessen the restrictions for people that live in HOA's it #will bring many in.Also with the recent hurricane's and the good PR we have gotten . I feel the snowballing will also call for more radio's and better compitition in the radio marketing and this will bring better and less expensive rigs.I know at first the prices will be high but then they will drop like other electronics.
# #Boy am I optimistic or what! But I do see this hobby having a new resurgence.
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #73 to all,
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # K7VIN # VINNY
Dropping the code will not make this huge increase in numbers you claim will happen. #Why?, because many are just not interested in radio. #When we have field day here, many stop by to see what it is about. #They see it as neat to look at but have no interest in amateur radio beyound that. Now before you try to claim I or the rest of the group are doing a poor job promoting the hobby, remember, if someone is not interested in it they will not be, no matter how simple the requirements are made. #Listening to other hams from areas wherre the code was dropped tell us that there is not the huge influx you see comming. #The ones that refused to do the code test will get upgraded and some will thumb their nose at everyone over it but that is about all, no massive influx of new ops. #It is a fact that this hobby or service however you look at it does not appeal to everyone, never has, never will. #This is why we need to focus on quality persons, not just numbers. #this includes all of us learning and making it better while we make ourselves better as well.

As for prices, well there are affordable rigs to start out with, I have one here, a TS-520. #Great starter rig. #Is it the most fancy? no. All the bells and whistles? no. #The radio does work though, there are rigs out there that work well and are affordable so I do not see the 10K priced rigs being less than 2K any time soon. #One does not have to start out with a 5K rig to have fun.
I see amateur radio as bing around in the future as but still not a hobby that puts a radio in every home.

KC0OFZ

[ka5s]

Are we simply dying? Are we in the same boat as (say) churches? From the National Health Ministries Site at
http://www.pcusa.org/health/usa/careteams/stats.htm
excerpted:
Quote[/b] ]
According to information collected for Presbyterian, PC(USA) congregations1, with each decade, the median age of church members rises four years. ...
The average age of a U.S. worshiper is 50 years, compared to the national average age of 35. Presbyterians, with an average age of 58, are older than other faith groups. In PC(USA) congregations people at least 65 years old comprise the largest age group. For every worshiper under the age of 25, there are more than six worshipers over the age of 65.2 ...
According to the most recently released census projections, the growth rate for the over 65 population is approximately two percent per year.



Cortland
KA5S

[kd4mxe]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Feb. 10 2006,15:54)]I recall reading in my archive of old QSTs tha the upgrade ratio of Novices in the 50s - 60s and as late as 1972 was hovering around 70%. This seems to be pretty decent. What I don't know though is 70% of what. Has anyone ever seen any statistics as to how many Novices were being licensed back then?

73
George
K3UD
k3ud - geroge I would like to ask you a question , I have Read here and other Places where thearrl is loseing member ship and they are hurting petter Bad , what would happen if the arrl did fold up what do you think would happen to ham Radio , you seem to Be up petter good on this stuff, would like to hear your thought on this thing,you know this day and time anything can happen, 73 Bill

[wa4dou]

The ARRL isn't going to fold up even if 50% were to quit right now.

[K3UD]

wa4duo is probably right.

The ARRL would still exist although it would probably be much weaker as an organization. A 50% of it's members would account for about a $3,100,000 loss in membership dues. On the other hand there would be some cost offset because there would be a lot less QST magazines to print and mail and there would be presumably less employees as demand for membership services diminished. The ARRL would be left with about 77,000 members and advertising rates in QST would drop appreciably because QST circulation was halved.

We would probably some of the member funded programs that the ARRL runs and solicits for would fall by the wayside as the money people at HQ look for anything that can drop expenses.

On the other hand the publishing side of the house (the various handbooks and other book type of publications) would most likely not be affected very much because these things are sold to hams in general and not just the membership. There is value in the publications that hams are willing to pay for.

I don't think that we will such a drop in membership unless the FCC does something completely unexpected like chopping off our HF allocations for auction. What we seem to be seeing is a very slow bleed of members which almost is in sync with the slow drop in overall numbers of hams.

A 50% drop in membership would be a drastic hit but the ARRL would still be there.

73
George
K3UD

[n2nov]

<span style='font-family:Courier'>From the attached Excel Spreadsheet:
ARRL Figures From QST November Issues
Year # Subscr.
2000 # 131,211
2001 # 132,558
2002 # 130,704
2003 # 126,133
2004 # 124,272
2005 # 116,695
That's a 14,516 net drop from 11/2000 to 11/2005 (6 years) or 11.06% reduction in subscriptions.

The number of _copies_ printed in the same time period went from 174,430 in 2000 to 148,690 in 2005.

Also, the comparison of ARRL subscriptions to amateur licensees is 17.57% of active licenses on the FCC database (does not count those in the 2 year grace period which would drop this figure to 16.11%).</span>

[kd4mxe]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ Feb. 11 2006,12:12)]wa4duo is probably right.

The ARRL would still exist although it would probably be much weaker as an organization. #A 50% of it's members would account for about a $3,100,000 loss in membership dues. On the other hand there would be some cost offset because there would be a lot less QST magazines to print and mail and there would be presumably less employees as demand for membership services diminished. The ARRL would be left with about 77,000 members and a