Zero Sunspots

Just prattling ... I've been watching HFRadio.Org (http://hfradio.org/propagation.html)

Zero sunspots all week! Doesn't go much lower than zero. Definitely headed toward the end of the cycle - still probably a year or so away.

Anyone want to start a pool to guess when will be the next time we'll see Solar Flux over 100? (I volunteer to hold the money)

For someone who licensed and got on HF in late 2002, just post-peak, and now this, it's an amazing change. 40 meters now sounds like 20 or 15 meters did 3 years ago! Keeps things interesting.

[WA5KRP]

It gets to be trying at times but there's plenty of activity on the lower freqs at night it you can go there. But oh hell ya - I miss not having 10 through 20 sizzling whenever I feel like firing the up the station.

I can tellya this: a solar minimum makes me appreciate a solar maximum.


WA5KRP
Texas

[AG3Y]

I've noticed the foreign broadcasters coming in before sunset, even. Definately 40 is gettiing longer and longer, it would seem. I also hear ZL stations during the afternoon at times! Man oh man, what a hoot !

73, Jim

[XV2PS]

Good thing is that A&K = 0 too.

and with ssn=0, two days ago, I still could come in the W6 with 57-58 with only 100w on 20m. So enjoy while it is low, because I cannot imagine how many lids we will bare when the bands are crowded. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[WA2ZDY]

Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ Feb. 02 2006,20:47)]I've noticed the foreign broadcasters coming in before sunset, even. #Definately 40 is gettiing longer and longer, it would seem. # I also hear ZL stations during the afternoon at times! # Man oh man, what a hoot !
Yes indeed, the Europeans are blasting in here at 130pm now. Having battled Radio Moscow in the 40m Novice band for 11 months makes me never want to hear foreign BC again.

At least they're honestly coming from Europe now, not from suburban Havana.

[n8yx]

I really miss 10M.

Back in the early 90's I bought an HR2510 and an HR2600; one or the other could usually be found in my car. My favorite antenna was a 1/4w bumper-mount fiberglass whip. With that setup I literally worked the world.

Just got those rigs back "online" this evening and am going to put one or both in my truck. Perhaps I'll catch some Es openings while travelling to/from work.

[w8cbc]

More and more I regret not having carried through and got licenced in 1988 when I learned Morse code the first time. As a SWL, I could hear that cycle 22 was HOT. It's the only time I've heard crowding in 11-metre broadcast. There had to be 6-metre F2 propagation from time to time. As a Tech I would've had a blast.

My hope is that cycle 24 won't be as wimpy as 23 was.

Say, what's the record for daily 10.7 cm solar flux? I recall a value of 367 once during cycle 22. 1991, I think, during its second peak.

[ae6yd]

Methinks I should've upgraded a while ago...

[WA5KRP]

Quote[/b] (kf6czg @ Feb. 02 2006,23:21)]Methinks I should've upgraded a while ago...
http://www.nightmarefactory.com/VA762.jpg


Take your time. It's never too late, right?

[kl7aj]

Does this mean we're going to have negative sunspot numbers in a year? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

eric

[KA3IGW]

I believe the cycles are variable and there is no set date for the "solar minimum". If I recall correctly, scientists define the minimum to occur at some set time after so many consecutive days of no sunspot activity. In short, the minimum may occur earlier than predicted and we may see the upswing start soon! http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

[AG3Y]

If you look at charts showing the visable sunspots over a period of time, you will see that they are certainly not smooth sinewaves by any stretch of the imagination. There will be many minor peaks and valleys for any given timeframe, and sometimes a flair or other anomoly will happen which will upset the applecart for everyone! That is part of the fascination of this hobby!

Sunspot activity has been known to have an effect on our climate as well, and that famous picture of Washington crossing the Delaware is believed to be truer than originally thought because the Winters around that time were much harsher than they "normally" are, due, some scientists are now saying, to a variance in the normal sunspot cycle!

Just an interesting observation! 73, Jim

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ Feb. 03 2006,10:50)]If you look at charts showing the visable sunspots over a period of time, you will see that they are certainly not smooth sinewaves by any stretch of the imagination. #There will be many minor peaks and valleys for any given timeframe, and sometimes a flair or other anomoly will happen which will upset the applecart for everyone! #That is part of the fascination of this hobby! #

Sunspot activity has been known to have an effect on our climate as well, and that famous picture of Washington crossing the Delaware is believed to be truer than originally thought because the Winters around that time were much harsher than they "normally" are, due, some scientists are now saying, to a variance in the normal sunspot cycle!

Just an interesting observation! # 73, Jim
And in Alaska, they're a flat line with a two day spike every 11 years. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
ERic

[AG3Y]

I've heard about Alaska, Eric, isn't that where there are two seasons, Winter, and "two days of poor sledding" ? ? ?

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

Quote[/b] (KA3IGW @ Feb. 03 2006,12:39)]I believe the cycles are variable and there is no set date for the "solar minimum". If I recall correctly, scientists define the minimum to occur at some set time after so many consecutive days of no sunspot activity. In short, the minimum may occur earlier than predicted and we may see the upswing start soon! http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif
Yes, that's true. They've been as short as 9.5 years. On average they're 11 years.

My comment about being a year or so away from the minimum was based on the projected smoothed sunspot curves at NOAA Cycle 23 Progression (http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/) which shows things bottoming out around January 2007.

At Historical Sunspot Cycle Info (http://www.dxlc.com/solar/cyclcomp.html) you can get some plots for past cycles. The recent one, 23, looks rather wimpy in comparison to the several before it.

[kf6rdn]

We need to start throwing crap into the sun, to "seed" it! #All that space junk they are trying to think of how to get rid of! #Toss it in! #All those old nukes that the USSR doesnt need.. #

Some of those burritos from el taco llama.. #Wait, no those might blow the sun up...
http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[w8cbc]

I think we could solve our nuclear waste problems by dropping it into the sun. That great big gasball won't notice.

DV is the only obstacle. Unfortunately, it's a big one.

It's all the more reason to move industry into space, I say.

[WY0COP]

In December 05 I was fortunate enough to have a 1 houwindow where I was able to make about 9 contacts on 10 M from South East Alaska to the Utah, AZ, and SF Bay area in CA. I was sooooo excited. Then ....silence. #Sigh.

[kf6rdn]

Quote[/b] (kd8bsr @ Feb. 03 2006,21:26)]I think we could solve our nuclear waste problems by dropping it into the sun. That great big gasball won't notice.
I beg your pardon! oh... THAT big gasball.. yeah maybe not...

Last couple days I get maybe a couple sentences on 20 mtr psk before it fades to alphabet soup.

[VE7NOT]

Quote[/b] (kf6rdn @ Feb. 02 2006,20:35)]We need to start throwing crap into the sun, to "seed" it! All that space junk they are trying to think of how to get rid of! Toss it in! All those old nukes that the USSR doesnt need..

Some of those burritos from el taco llama.. Wait, no those might blow the sun up...
http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif
Sunspots are actually cooler areas on the sun's 'surface'

[KC2ESD]

Look its the Sunspot Cycle, It haves its ups and downs. We are at the low right now but 20M down to 160M still work OK 15 and 10M are quiet and 11M CB is good for Local Contacts now, it's intended service. in two or three years 10M will be kicking again. Live with it it's just Nature.
Rick KC2ESD

[af2cw]

Comparison (http://www.dxlc.com/solar/cyclcomp.html) of cycles 21,22 and 23.

Solar cycle progression (http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/)

[G8ADD]

For convenience we call it an eleven year sunspot cycle, but in fact it is a twenty two year cycle. That is because the sunspots of the new cycle have their magnetic polarity reversed relative to the spots of the previous cycle. Normally the first sunspots of the new cycle will appear in high solar latitudes whilst there are sunspots of the old cycle still appearing in low solar latitudes, so the sunspot cycles overlap.

As far as I know (I might be wrong) no sunspots of the new cycle have appeared yet so we still have some way to go to minimum. Incidentally, I have seen predictions that the next sunspot cycle will be poorer than the current one.....let's hope their crystal ball is cracked!

Coronal holes add to the interest; there is one pointing our way right now and the particle stream from it should impact the ionosphere tomorrow.

73

Brian G8ADD

[w8cbc]

I'm given to understand that we have already had one or two Cycle 24 regions appear. I'm not certain of it though. I wish I could remember the source. A new cycle's sunspot regions can appear a ways before the minimum but it at least suggests that we'll be getting there shortly.

My hope is that we don't have several years of nearly quiet sun the way we did between cycles 22 and 23 (1995-7, solar flux into the 60s all three summers). If we do, well, we're right at the start of them. The shorter wavelengths are doubtless going to be spare this summer whatever the case.

BTW. Northern summer coincides with apastron. We're furthest away from the sun then and we do get a few percent less in the way of radiation from it thereby as we subtend a smaller angle in relation to the source. Check SEC (http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices/old_indices.html) to see the effects. 1995-1997's solar indices will show it clearest.