It DOES maker ya wonder....

[ai4ep]

Since this new idea has been proposed by the FCC... You might wonder just how many HF ( of all types ) radios have been sold by HRO, AES , GIGAPARTS, etc in the past 24 - 48 hours ?

Plus how many USED rigs have been entered through e - bay and qrz and on-the-air for sale parts of local nets and sold.

Are the bargain days over for good buys on HF rigs...or...have they just started ?

A I 4 E P

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ July 22 2005,18:17)]Since this new idea has been proposed by the FCC... You might wonder just how many HF ( of all types ) radios have been sold by HRO, AES , GIGAPARTS, etc in the past 24 - 48 hours ?
No more than they usually do.

New sales aren't going to change even 5%. If you don't know why, I'll educate you another time.

Unless you think you can figure it out on your own.

[KD6NIG]

Nope, E-Bay still has the same drivel for sale. Did you know a Debit card Keypad was a ham radio device? Well, if you look up the category, its in there.

I look about once a week just to see whats on there, but haven't bought lately. The listings haven't changed since the developments above, either.

And, seeing the way my budget is, my first place to look for a HF radio provided I passed code and General, or just General if the NPRM goes through, would probably be on the used market-I don't have the coin to drop on a new one, though HRO would hope I would http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[KC9ECI]

Josh-
Do the code, you'll be glad you did one day.

[ai4ep]

I did call HRO whom ever I talked to said theri phones had been ringing off the hook with folks actually ORDERING radios, not just wanting prices !!

[K3UD]

Quote[/b] (n3jja @ July 22 2005,18:01)]Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ July 22 2005,18:17)]Since this new idea has been proposed by the FCC... You might wonder just how many HF ( of all types ) radios have been sold by HRO, AES , GIGAPARTS, etc in the past 24 - 48 hours ?
No more than they usually do.

New sales aren't going to change even 5%. If you don't know why, I'll educate you another time.

Unless you think you can figure it out on your own.
Let me guess.

Possibly 2 main reasons.

1. You might be thinking that even though the code test is going away, there are very few no code hams who are even active and a large majority of the class have effectively dropped out of ham radio.

2. You also might be think that even without the code test there will be very few from the present no code class who will even bother to study for the General exam and will be content to wait on the next ARRL petition asking for free upgrades for them.

Of course, you may have more reasons I have not thought of.

73
George
K3UD

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ July 23 2005,18:36)]I did call HRO whom ever I talked to said theri phones had been ringing off the hook with folks actually ORDERING radios, not just wanting prices !!
If you called Atlanta, that's no surprise. That store is always busy.

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ July 23 2005,19:41)]1. You might be thinking that even though the code test is going away, there are very few no code hams who are even active and a large majority of the class have effectively dropped out of ham radio.
Nope. Although I woudn't be surprised if a lot of Techs that are on the books are gone. The conventional wisdom is that only about 1/3 of the hams on the books are active in the first place.

Quote[/b] ]2. You also might be think that even without the code test there will be very few from the present no code class who will even bother to study for the General exam and will be content to wait on the next ARRL petition asking for free upgrades for them.

Now George, you're being disingenuous. You're also showing your Sour Grapes attitude about the whole code issue. I thought you were above that.

Quote[/b] ]Of course, you may have more reasons I have not thought of.

Yes, reasons based on logic and not wild-ass speculation.

1] Do you really think that every IC-706, FT-100, FT-857, FT-897, FT-847, and TS-2000 sold in this country was only bought by folks who have passed a code test? If so, you have no grip on reality.

2] NCTs who are part of any MARS outfit aren't sitting there on VHF. They're on HF. How did they do that without purchasing an HF rig? FM? (Friggin' Magic??)

These two reasons are all that one has to take into consideration to realize sales aren't going to change that much. If it increases sales more than 5% in the next year, I'll be surprised.

Oh, BTW, the increase will only happen for the first year. After that, it will go right back down again and fade into the noise.

[K3UD]

Quote[/b] (n3jja @ July 24 2005,11:23)]Quote[/b] ]2. You also might be think that even without the code test there will be very few from the present no code class who will even bother to study for the General exam and will be content to wait on the next ARRL petition asking for free upgrades for them.

Now George, you're being disingenuous. You're also showing your Sour Grapes attitude about the whole code issue. I thought you were above that.

Quote[/b] ]Of course, you may have more reasons I have not thought of.

Yes, reasons based on logic and not wild-ass speculation.

1] Do you really think that every IC-706, FT-100, FT-857, FT-897, FT-847, and TS-2000 sold in this country was only bought by folks who have passed a code test? If so, you have no grip on reality.

2] NCTs who are part of any MARS outfit aren't sitting there on VHF. They're on HF. How did they do that without purchasing an HF rig? FM? (Friggin' Magic??)

These two reasons are all that one has to take into consideration to realize sales aren't going to change that much. If it increases sales more than 5% in the next year, I'll be surprised.

Oh, BTW, the increase will only happen for the first year. After that, it will go right back down again and fade into the noise.
Initially there was a lot of influx to the General class after the code speed requirement dropped to 5WMP. This has declined to a point where the General class is losing number every month. I th influx is not keeping up with the outgo.

As far as equipment sales are concerned, of course Techs buy Icom 706's and other rigs. Most of these have bands that the can use and they have been buying them since the darkness to daylight rigs came out. It makes perfect sense. If they upgrade they do not need a new rig. How many Techs are in MARS? I bet it is a rather small percentage of the the total.

As far as taking the test is concerned, I have to agree with those who believe that 5WPM is not a hinderance to anyone who really wanted to get the General. It did not seem to be much of a barrier in 2000 through early 2003, and then, for some reason it became one, at least you get that feeling looking at the posts around here.

It looks to me like there might an aversion to taking the tests needed to gain the license. The ARRL certainly has to be assigned some blame for leading hams to expect a free upgrade with no further testing. If there is a reluctance to learn what is needed to upgrade today, why would that change tomorrow?

I agree with you that there might be an good increase in the number of Generals after the new regs go into effect. We had about a 2 1/2 year period starting in May, 2000 when the General was expanding, then it went flat. You think it might only last a year this time, and I have no reason to dispute that.

73
George
K3UD

[AC0H]

Quote[/b] ]As far as equipment sales are concerned, of course Techs buy Icom 706's and other rigs. Most of these have bands that the can use and they have been buying them since the darkness to daylight rigs came out. It makes perfect sense. If they upgrade they do not need a new rig.
Yep, and the fact that those radios are relatively inexpensive compared to anything else. The performance of these DC to daylight rigs is attrocious. The IC-706, FT-847, and TS-2000 are good examples of bad implementation of an arguably bad idea.


Quote[/b] ]As far as taking the test is concerned, I have to agree with those who believe that 5WPM is not a hinderance to anyone who really wanted to get the General. It did not seem to be much of a barrier in 2000 through early 2003, and then, for some reason it became one, at least you get that feeling looking at the posts around here.

It looks to me like there might an aversion to taking the tests needed to gain the license. The ARRL certainly has to be assigned some blame for leading hams to expect a free upgrade with no further testing. If there is a reluctance to learn what is needed to upgrade today, why would that change tomorrow?


Exactly. Everyone is ENTITLED to everything RIGHT NOW. In that respect Ham Radio is becoming a mirror of the rest of our society.

[W5HTW]

Quote[/b] (K3UD @ July 24 2005,13:23)]Initially there was a lot of influx to the General class after the code speed requirement dropped to 5WMP. This has declined to a point where the General class is losing number every month. I th influx is not keeping up with the outgo.

I agree with you that there might be an good increase in the number of Generals after the new regs go into effect. We had about a 2 1/2 year period starting in May, 2000 when the General was expanding, then it went flat. You think it might only last a year this time, and I have no reason to dispute that.

73
George
K3UD
I think a good part of the reason for the decline in General numbers is they are moving to Extra. Even many pre-2000 Generals, and some Technicians, have moved up, due to the decreased code requirement.

When this goes into effect, I certainly think there will be a decline in Technician licenses. They will be going to General. Look for General numbers to rapidly increase, though I agree that may be for a relatively short time, say a year or so.

After that period of time, I would suspect the number of Technician licenses will fairly steadily decline, as more and more people choosing to be a ham will study a bit more and simply become a General. Combined with the normal attrition of any class of license through death or disinterest, I'd guess the Tech class will drop the way the Novice has.

The Extra Class will continue to grow, as both Techs and Generals move to Extra. The Advanced will decline slowly, again partly due to attrition, and partly due to advancing to Extra.

As a side note, there are those who say the creation of the no-code tech did not bring a huge influx of new hams into the hobby. It actually did, though many of them did not really qualify as hams, since they were actually 'free cell phone ops." Now, over ten years later, a goodly portion of those have returned to the cell phone, and their numbers also affect the decreasing Technician rolls.

Will ham radio numbers eventually stabilize? That's hard to say, but if it happens, it will be after several more years. More licensing changes, such as refarming and bandwidth proposals are in the sidelines, and at some point the Novice and Advanced are likely to be eliminated totally. Likewise a standardized ham test may result in a single class of license, once the FCC looks around and realizes this is NOT a technical hobby, and we are NOT a 'farm team' for the government communications services, as we were in the 50s and 60s. Certainly there won't be enough emergencies or public service events to go around for 350,000 hams or so, unless the world cracks open at the seams.

When that realization sinks in, in the halls of the FCC, they will no longer consider incentive as any part of the hobby of ham radio. That will remove all cause for the continuation of the incentive licensing mode. They will react accordingly, as their chief thrust is to make ham radio licensing structure as simplified as they possibly can, so they can keep their attention on the real issues; cell phones.

Ed



.

[K0RGR]

My personal prayer will be that over time, the tests will be adjusted somewhat to reflect the reality of the situation. I wish we could adjust the entry license a lot, but you can't take priveleges away from people - ARRL found that out the hard way with the Incentive Licensing fiasco. I do think that many people, if not most, will simply do a little more study and take the Tech and General written together - maybe all 3 at the same time. I think these two will eventually be merged again, because there just isn't that much practical difference between the exams.

[KD6NIG]

Quote[/b] (KC9ECI @ July 22 2005,17:15)]Josh-
Do the code, you'll be glad you did one day.
I am, CD's arrived from HRO Thursday last.

I wonder if the sales of THOSE have increased since this announcement any?

[AD5UT]

Quote[/b] (KD6NIG @ July 25 2005,13:21)]Quote[/b] (KC9ECI @ July 22 2005,17:15)]Josh-
Do the code, you'll be glad you did one day.
I am, CD's arrived from HRO Thursday last.

I wonder if the sales of THOSE have increased since this announcement any?
Not likely

edited to add: Unless there is an influx of people who want to get element 1 before it goes away.

[ai4ep]

It is hard to predict HOW the average person will react to all that IS going on...all the next few months testing sessions may have far more folks taking the C W test, and passing...because they WANT to. They may WANT the bragging rights of saying " Hey I passed the code test, look what I did ".

The general public is hard to figure out in what they will say or do in so many ways.
We are just humans beings, nothing more --- nothing less. No insult, I am one too.

[ai4ep]

But one thought DOES come to mind... these ARRL folks who voted on the " remove the code " proposal...their names/call signs are available via e-mail for others to send them e-mail.......I wonder what ( if any ) change there has been in their e - mail letters from complete strangers since the vote ? Has it been hateful, or supportive ?

It might be interesting to know.

ai4ep

[w5klb]

I am upgrading to Extra. I can only imagine the chaos that we will be going through for next year or so *IF* they decide to drop the code. Everyone says they will drop it but "it don't mean noth'n till they sign it on the dotted line." The gov'ment has been known to do far stranger things.

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ July 25 2005,16:57)]It is hard to predict HOW the average person will react to all that IS going on...
The average non-ham? I assume that's what you mean?

Here's their reaction....

*zzzzzzzzz.......*

[WA2ZDY]

Quote[/b] (n3jja @ July 24 2005,12:23)]Quote[/b] ]2. You also might be think that even without the code test there will be very few from the present no code class who will even bother to study for the General exam and will be content to wait on the next ARRL petition asking for free upgrades for them.

Now George, you're being disingenuous. You're also showing your Sour Grapes attitude about the whole code issue. I thought you were above that.
.
Jim, I know where you're coming from with that comment, but sadly I think you're wrong. #That statement by George isn't a reflection directly upon no-code techs, but about society in general. #

Our entire society has become a "gotta have it now" society. #Yes, there are folks who work hard, like you - I know where you work and what you do. #But our children are growing up with the world handed to them on a silver platter, and amputating the silver spoon becomes more and more unlikely with each passing year.

We live in a time when parents demand that their failing children be promoted in school to save them from embarrassment. #Kids' sports leagues no longer keep score so as to not upset the losers. #And go to the local high school; know how you can tell the student parking lot from the teachers'? # The student lot has the nicer cars.

It's not just about nocode techs Jim, it's society, and most of #us are caught up in the rush. #Hams of all classes as a general rule are just a reflection of society. #I think some of us older hams see the no-code techs as more so only because they tend to be the newer and younger hams, more likely coming from the "new value system" of society.

Sad to say, I fear George is right. #No-code is only the first step. #With that "battle" won, the easing of the written exams will be the next challenge. #After all, it cannot be disputed that somewhere there are prospective hams who won't bother because there's a written exam. #So essentially the written exam IS a hinderance to some who would otherwise be hams (I'll leave it to the reader to judge what kind of "hams" these folks would be.)

[K0RGR]

I think the argument that we're on a 'slippery slope' now is pretty pessimistic, based on the comments in the NPRM. The FCC clearly wants to preserve the current incentive system.

There will still be an argument that the current Technician license looks too intimidating to a modern teenager. Maybe the truth is that the book "Now You're Talking" looks too intimidating. Perhaps we should hand young prospects the Gordon West book or the ARRL Q+A book, which is much thinner, and looks much easier to memorize, instead. The fact is, we have a pretty good success rate with our two-Saturday Technician class.

The ones who have the most trouble passing the test after the class are the kids, however - I think they haven't mastered the fine art of studying yet. We're starting to provide extra help for the teenaged class members that want it.

It doesn't sound like FCC is open to creating a new entry license at all, so it sounds like the Technician is going to be the entry point. I can't imagine lowering the entrance requirements for Tech any further than they are now - I sometimes question if we do a good enough job of training people for the priveleges the Tech gives them. 1500 watts on 2300 Mhz.? That could cause a little consternation in the neighborhood if improperly handled. I wonder how many of these guys playing with 802.11 are going to blind themselves, not to mention removing themselves from the gene pool.

No, I'm afraid we'll go the Swedish route. The commercial interests - BPL Inc. - that covet our bands will simply get their friends and future employees at FCC to abolish ham licenses altogether. Maybe they'll let ARRL take over all testing and issue 'operator certificates', but there won't be anymore Federal licenses, ala Sweden. That means no more Federal protection from BPL interference. If we become too painful for FCC, that is what I expect to see happen.

[KC0UUP]

Quote[/b] (KE5AQG @ July 25 2005,06:38)]Quote[/b] (KD6NIG @ July 25 2005,13:21)]Quote[/b] (KC9ECI @ July 22 2005,17:15)]Josh-
Do the code, you'll be glad you did one day.
I am, CD's arrived from HRO Thursday last.

I wonder if the sales of THOSE have increased since this announcement any?
Not likely

edited to add: Unless there is an influx of people who want to get element 1 before it goes away.
I want to get my General ticket before the code requirements go away. Not necessarily because I would consider that to be elite, but because that is what I had planned since before I got my Technicians license.