Tropical Weather 2005

[n0jaa]

This thread is closed. See my last post.



For the latest tropical updates, go to the last page in this thread.

Active Storms:
Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Watch Net Status: #Inactive


The Atlantic has seen the following storms so far (storm names at their peak strength):

Tropical Storm Arlene
Tropical Storm Bret
Tropical Storm Cindy
Hurricane Dennis
Hurricane Emily
Tropical Storm Franklin
Tropical Storm Gert
Tropical Storm Harvey
Hurricane Irene
Tropical Depression Ten
Tropical Storm Jose
Hurricane Katrina


(This list will be updated as necessary. #I will also delete old bulletins that I have posted when they are no longer needed. #That should save a little bandwidth! #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif )


If you're not on the list already, you may want to consider signing up for the Hurricane Watch Net's bulletins. #HWN/NHC issues bulletins for the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific.

Go to Hurricane Watch Net (http://www.hwn.org) to sign up. #You can also find out if the Net is active and what frequency it is on. #There are also links there to SATERN and NHC.

73,
Paul, N0JAA.

[KA3RFE]

Yeah, the guy who makes the seasonal hurricane forcasts thinks this will be a busy hurricane season. So far, he's right.

73

[G0GQK]

Come and live in the UK, its safer over here !
73, Mel:D

[n0jaa]

Quote[/b] (G0GQK @ July 22 2005,17:16)]Come and live in the UK, its safer over here !
73, Mel:D
I don't know, looks like you get some pretty good storms over there, too!

N0JAA.

[K8ERV]

Just (don't) move to Colorado. Would welcome some rain.

TOM K8ERV Montrose Colo

[n0jaa]

Quote[/b] (K8ERV @ July 24 2005,06:56)]Just (don't) move to Colorado. Would welcome some rain.

TOM K8ERV #Montrose Colo
I lived there once, hence the "0" call. 25 years, in fact. Received my Novice call in 1984 and my Technician call in 1987. But I digress.

Franklin is headed towards Bermuda, and is losing some of its organization. Gert (sounds like half of a girdle!) is moving towards the Mexican coast, and is still very unorganized. In fact, the center of circulation is quite difficult to discern.


Paul, N0JAA.

[KW4MW]

Hurricanes will not, repeat, will not come my way here in NE Florida. #

I have already made animal sacrifices to the great God MoJo. #Ok so it was KFC (chicken - not the ham op).

[n0jaa]

NOAA has updated its 2005 tropical weather forecast. According to their forecast, the remainder of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the previous season.

You can access their updated forecast here: 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (Updated) (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.html)


For active alerts, you can go here: Hurricane Watch Net (http://www.hwn.org/)

Paul, N0JAA.

[n0jaa]

NCAR Radar Probes Hurricane Rainbands

2005-16 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 8, 2005

NCAR Radar Probes Hurricane Rainbands

--Hurricane Field Program Could Improve Intensity Forecasts--

Contacts:

Anatta, NCAR Media Relations
303-497-8604
anatta@ucar.edu

Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR
303-497-8814
303-817-1784 (cell)
wenchau@ucar.edu

BOULDER--A collaborative research team will soon begin one of
the largest hurricane research projects ever undertaken. Its
goal is to better understand dramatic, rapid changes in
tropical storm intensity that have baffled forecasters for
years.

The team includes scientists from the University of Miami
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, the
University of Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Navy.

The project, called the Hurricane Rainband and Intensity
Change Experiment (RAINEX), will study how the outer
rainbands and inner eye of a hurricane interact to influence
the storm’s intensity. The National Science Foundation (NSF)
provided $3 million to fund the study, which may shed light
on how and why a storm can change in strength in only a
matter of hours.

"While great progress has been made in forecasting hurricane
tracks, we need to improve forecasting hurricane intensity,"
says Steve Nelson, director of NSF's physical and dynamic
meteorology program.

Many factors affect the intensity of hurricanes. RAINEX will
investigate one of those factors: the interactions between a
hurricane's rainbands and its eyewall. "From RAINEX, we will
better understand the impact of rainbands on a hurricane's
maximum winds," Nelson says.

Although researchers have studied the eye and outer rainbands
of hurricanes extensively, few if any experiments have ever
examined these two components together and how their
interaction might affect a storm's strength, according to
Shuyi Chen, an associate professor of meteorology and
physical oceanography at Rosenstiel School and a RAINEX
principal investigator. The outer bands of a hurricane often
have strong winds and lots of rain, and that can actually
affect the overall intensity of a hurricane.

The RAINEX team will study this interaction using data
recorded during hurricane research flights. Beginning August
15 and running through the remainder of this year's Atlantic
hurricane season, two NOAA P-3 aircraft and a U.S. Navy P-3
will fly simultaneously into hurricanes well before the
storms threaten landfall. Flying in the hurricane’s outer
bands and punching into the eyewall on most flights, the
aircraft will use sophisticated Doppler radar and GPS
dropsondes to record wind speed and direction, temperature,
humidity, atmospheric pressure, and other critical data.

Researchers at the University of Washington and NCAR will
provide expertise in airborne Doppler radar analysis, while
researchers at Rosenstiel School will construct a state-of-
the-art hurricane model using the data collected during the
research flights.

"Ideally, we'll obtain a physical explanation of a
hurricane's intensity change in terms of the relationship
between the inner and outer parts of the storm," says Robert
A. Houze, Jr., a professor in atmospheric sciences at the
University of Washington and one of the project's principal
investigators. "These storms can jump up in intensity or drop
a full category in a day, and the intensity changes are a big
challenge."

"Much of what scientists currently know about the
interactions between the outer rainbands and the eyewall of a
hurricane comes from numerical models developed for hurricane
research and prediction, which can provide very detailed
information but may not be completely accurate. Researchers
need solid data to validate these models.

One of the breakthrough aspects of RAINEX is the use of the
three aircraft equipped with Doppler radar. Although eyewall
flights are a routine part of hurricane research, this is the
first field study to include simultaneous flights in and near
rainbands.

NCAR's Wen-Chau Lee will be the lead scientist for the Naval
Research Lab's P-3 as it profiles rainbands. Dropsonde
sensors will measure temperature and wind as the instruments
fall from the plane through storms. On most flights, the
ELDORA Doppler radar will collect data as a P-3 circles
rainbands from six miles away, with occasional flights
through a rainband as needed.

"These flights can be turbulent, especially when we're
penetrating the rainbands," Lee says. "I think this is the
wild card--the challenge of the experiment--to capture the
internal rainband structure and its interactions with the
eyewall in these conditions."

"Once the data are collected, the researchers will assimilate
them into hurricane models to gain a better sense of whether
a storm's circulation speeds up or slows down as rainbands
wrap around the hurricane. The researchers will share this
information with hurricane operational centers and national
environmental prediction centers around the world.

"Having the Navy P-3 fly with the NOAA P-3 aircraft will
expand the area covered by airborne Doppler radar to include
the rainbands as well as the inner core," says Robert Rogers,
field program director for NOAA's Hurricane Research
Division. "This data will improve our understanding of
intensity change and contribute to the development and
evaluation of the next-generation operational hurricane
model."

NCAR'S primary sponsor is the National Science Foundation.
Opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed
in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of
the National Science Foundation.

-The End-

On the Web:
Find more information about RAINEX at
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/rainex
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/rainex

Find this press release and images on the Web at
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases

To receive NCAR and UCAR press releases via e-mail or to
unsubscribe, send name, title, affiliation, postal address,
fax, and phone number to yvonnem@ucar.edu.


--

Anatta
Media Relations
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Phone: (303) 497-8604;
Fax: (303) 497-8610
E-mail: anatta@ucar.edu
http://www.ucar.edu/news

[KW4MW]

TS Irene current track has it headed toward the Fl - GA coast. #TS Irene (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/storm2.html)

[KC2ESD]

It looks like it could hit New Jersey but probaly turn out to sea (Knock on Wooden Cumputer desk). I'm Charging the radio batteries just in case.

[n0jaa]

Tropical Depression Twelve has formed over the southern Bahamas.

As of the 5 PM NHC advisory, the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located approximately 175 miles south of Nassau. #Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph, and the depression is moving toward the northwest at 8 mph. #Minimum central pressure is 29.74 inches.

The government of the Bahamas has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the central and northwest Bahamas, including Cat Island, The Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, San Salvador, The Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

Total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over portions of the Bahamas, and storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near the center.


Data from NWS/NHC.

[w5ljm]

Hurricane Tracker (http://www.ksat.com/hurricanetracker/index.html)

An animated tracker that I refer to.

pretty much keeps you updated. Even has paths of past hurricanes.

[nx6d]

Quote[/b] (KW4MW @ July 25 2005,10:48)]Hurricanes will not, repeat, will not come my way here in NE Florida. #

I have already made animal sacrifices to the great God MoJo. #Ok so it was KFC (chicken - not the ham op).
Hope you got your MoJo risin', Mike.

I'm not interested in spending fall in inexPensacola again...(or anywhere ELSE in the South for that matter...)

Dave WX7B

[n0jaa]

Tropical Depression Twelve has strengthened overnight and is now Tropical Storm Katrina. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the eastern Florida coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys from west of the Seven Mile Bridge northward to south of Florida City. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the central and northwest Bahamas. An inland Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Okeechobee County, Florida.

As of the 11 AM EDT advisory, Katrina was located approximately 230 miles east-southeast of the southeastern coast of Florida. Movement was to the north-northwest at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Minimum central pressure was 29.71 inches. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 70 miles from the center.

More updates as needed.

Data from NWS/NHC.

[n0jaa]

Katrina is getting better organized over the central Bahamas.

As of the 5 PM EDT NHC advisory, Tropical Storm Katrina was located approximately 70 miles north-northeast of Nassau. #Movement was toward the northwest at 9 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. #Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 70 miles from the center. #Minimum central pressure was 29.59 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected over the central and northwest Bahamas and south Florida due to the storm's slow forward speed.

The following watches and warnings are in effect:

Tropical Storm Watch: #east-central Florida coast, from Titusville southward to Vero Beach; middle and upper Florida keys from Seven Mile Bridge northward to south of Florida City.

Tropical Storm Warning: #central and northwest Bahamas; Lake Okeechobee; southeast Florida coast, from Vero Beach southward to Florida City.

Hurricane Watch: #Lake Okeechobee; southeast Florida coast, from Vero Beach southward to Florida City.


NWS/NHC.

[n0jaa]

As of the 8 AM intermediate advisory, Tropical Storm Katrina was located 70 miles east of Fort Lauderdale, FL, with sustained winds of 50 mph. I will provide a more thorough update when the 11 AM advisory is issued.

Paul, N0JAA.

[n0jaa]

Katrina is gradually strengthening as it moves toward the southeastern Florida coast.

As of the 11 AM advisory, Tropical Storm Katrina was located 55 miles east of Fort Lauderdale, FL. Movement was to the west at 6 mph, with sustained winds of 60 mph. Barometric pressure, 29.44 inches. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 70 miles from the center.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Heavy rainfall 6 to 10 inches, with possible maximum amounts of 15 inches, can be expected. Isolated tornadoes are possible over southern Florida and the Florida Keys.

Due to Katrina's slow forward speed, the possibility exists that the storm could become a minimal hurricane before making landfall.

The following watches and warnings are in effect:

Tropical Storm Watch: east-central Florida coast, from Vero Beach northward to Titusville and Merritt Island; middle and upper Florida Keys from the west end of Seven Mile Bridge northward to south of Florida City; Florida west coast from Florida City to Englewood, including Florida Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning: Grand Bahama Island; Bimini; the Berry islands.

Hurricane Warning: southeast Florida coast, from Vero Beach southward to Florida City; Lake Okeechobee.

Evacuation warnings are in effect for Palm Beach and the barrier islands in Broward County.

[n0jaa]

Latest radar estimate...

WTNT52 KNHC 251748
TCEAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z... THE CENTER OF SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL
STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN MIAMI
TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST... OR ABOUT
40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 40
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

FORECASTER STEWART

[n0jaa]

As of the 3 PM intermediate update, Tropical Storm Katrina was located approximately 35 miles east-northeast of Fort Lauderdale, FL. #

Storm movement was to the west at 6 mph. #Maximum sustained winds were just below hurricane strength at 70 mph. #Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 80 miles from the center. #Barometric pressure was 29.23 inches.

In addition to all previous watches and warnings issued, Inland Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Okeechobee and Osceola Counties in Florida.

The possibility exists that Katrina could become a hurricane before the center makes landfall.

The Hurricane Watch Net is currently on standby and may be activated at any time. #Interested operators should tune to 14.325 MHz for details.

Data from NWS/NHC.

[n0jaa]

Weather reconaissance and doppler radar estimates indicate that Katrina has strengthened to hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The center of Hurricane Katrina is located approximately 25 miles east-northeast of Fort Lauderdale, FL.

[n0jaa]

Latest advisory on Hurricane Katrina...


WTNT32 KNHC 252050
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER # 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...STRENGTHENING HURRICANE KATRINA BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM
JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS
WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE... INCLUDING ALL OF
MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR #6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK... THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED
AFTERWARDS AS KATRINA MOVES INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO #15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO #80 MILES...130 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT BOCA RATON. DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND
NOAA DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
ARE MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTAL AREAS OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS #985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE ALSO
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE
VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.1 N... 79.9 W. #MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR #6 MPH. #MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. #MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$
WWWW

[n0jaa]

Hurricane Katrina has made landfall...

WTNT32 KNHC 252252
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

...EYE OF KATRINA CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH
AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH WITH 80 MPH WINDS...PORT EVERGLADES JUST
REPORTED GUSTS TO 92 MPH WINDS... #

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY FROM KEY WEST NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY
SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH
OF JUPITER INLET TO VERO BEACH.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...BIMINI...AND THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY AND FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE
...INCLUDING ALL OF MERRITT ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM EDT...2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON
THE COAST BETWEEN HALLANDALE BEACH AND NORTH MIAMI BEACH.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

LATEST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE MIAMI NOAA
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISING BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
EVERGLADES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO #80 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS #985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL POINT.

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 80.1 W. #MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR #6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$
WWWW

[n0jaa]

Here is a synopsis on Hurricane Katrina and a tropical update...


Hurricane Katrina made landfall at Port Lauderdale, FL just after 1830 EDT and experienced a brief strengthening. #As it moved southwestward across the Miami Metro area, it was responsible for four death and the collapse of a bridge under construction.

Katrina briefly weakened to a tropical storm, then emerged into the eastern Gulf of Mexico just before 0300 EDT, when it began re-strengthening to a hurricane.

As of the 11:30 AM EDT advisory, Hurricane Katrina was located approximately 75 miles south-southwest of Naples, FL, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph.

The following watches and warnings are in effect:

Tropical Storm Watch: #Portions of the Florida west coast, from south of Florida City westward and northward to Longboat Key.

Tropical Storm Warning: #All of the Florida Keys and Florida Bay and the Dry Tortugas northward. #The Tropical Storm Warning for the southeast Florida coast has been discontinued.

---------------

Elsewhere, an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave about 900 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands is becoming better organized. #Development of this system is possible within the next day or two. #Tropical depression formation is possible as the system moves toward the west-northwest.

A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad surface low pressure area is located about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. #Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized, and development is possible over the next couple of days.

More updates as they are received.

Data from NWS/NHC.

[n0jaa]

Hurricane Katrina intermediate update...

As of the 1400 EDT advisory, the center of Hurricane Katrina was located approximately 60 miles west-northwest of Key West, FL. #Movement was to the west-southwest at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. #Barometric pressure was 28.61 inches.

From the center of circulation, hurricane force winds extend outward to 25 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outward to 85 miles. #

Some further strenthening is forecast, and Katrina could become a major hurricane on Saturday. #A gradual turn to the west is expected tonight or early Saturday.

All previously reported watches and warnings remain in effect. #No hurricane watches or warnings are in effect at this time.

Data from NWS/NHC.

[n0jaa]

Katrina continues to move west-southwest away from the Florida Keys.

As of the 1700 EDT advisory, Hurricane Katrina was located approximately 70 miles west-northwest of Key West, FL. #Movement was to the west-southwest at 8 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. #Barometric pressure was 28.50 inches.

All watches and warnings for mainland Florida have been discontinued. #A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and the Dry Tortugas.

From the storm center, hurricane force winds extend outward to 25 miles, and tropical storm force winds extend outward to 85 miles. #Sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 105 mph were reported at an unmanned C-MAN buoy in the Dry Tortugas.

Data from NWS/NHC.

[n0jaa]

Well...

I have tried to conduct this forum as a place where hams can discuss tropical weather and post updates. #It is now clear to me, however, that people would rather have their OWN forums than try to save a little bandwidth and provide a little cooperation. #I was too naive in thinking that hams cooperate with each other. #They don't.

If that't the way you want it, fine. #I am closing this forum. #I'll go back to the forums that I OWN and stay there! #And you're not welcome!

THIS IS THE LAST POST IN THIS THREAD. #Nothing like a huge, overblown EGO to ruin things, is there??

Good bye. #You're on your own.

Paul, N0JAA.



http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (n0jaa @ Aug. 27 2005,12:10)]THIS IS THE LAST POST IN THIS THREAD. Nothing like a huge, overblown EGO to ruin things, is there??

Good bye. You're on your own.

Paul, N0JAA.
I'm lost... Sigh.