Terrorism, the thinking man's game.

[KG6JTB]

I heard an interesting NPR story about how some college professors are trying to determine the next terrorist target and thwart plans using mathematical theories of prediction.

The same story quoted a terrorist leader in the lawless N/W Pakistan region as saying, "terrorism is a thinking man's game", alluding to the fact that terrorists use formulas to predict the impact of their strikes, not just against people but our economy.

Since 1991, after the first gulf war and the end of the Soviet Union, the U.S. has been largely the only superpower, both militarily and economically. For rogue nations and terrorists, we are a focus of their anger.

Could it be entirely possible that the plan to hit the WTC was calculated at the time our economy was slipping from the dot.com bust. The first WTC attack came in 1993 when we were in another recession.

If we slide into another recession, it seems likely that another "sucker punch" might just come along.

Perhaps this is why the EU, who is jockeying for the next superpower role, is so against supporting our war on terror.

Food for thought...

Dave
KG6JTB

[AG3Y]

There are all kinds of predictions being made that the next terrorist attack will come "shortly before the election" in order to cause the same kind of disruption as the one that took place before Spain's election a few months back. No one doubts that the effects of that activity changed the results, or at least guaranteed that the political stance taken by Spain would be very antagonistic toward the U.S. efforts in the "War on Terror"

Come to think of it, "shortly before the election" is getting to be very close, isn't it ?

73 , Jim

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ Oct. 21 2004,08:50)]There are all kinds of predictions being made that the next terrorist attack will come "shortly before the election" in order to cause the same kind of disruption as the one that took place before Spain's election a few months back. #No one doubts that the effects of that activity changed the results, or at least guaranteed that the political stance taken by Spain would be very antagonistic toward the U.S. efforts in the "War on Terror"

Come to think of it, "shortly before the election" is getting to be very close, isn't it ?

73 , Jim
The question is, would an attack move people towards Bush or Kerry?

In order to consider this, we have to remember that Americans are not Spaniards... we grew up in a different culture, one that remembers the Alamo and Pearl Harbor. When we get attacked, we get mad, and we want to get even.

So I think that a pre-election attack would benefit Bush more than Kerry, by reminding people that we are at war with an implacable enemy. That plays into Bush's strengths in fighting the war on terror (Rasmussen (http://rasmussenreports.com/) says that Bush is trusted more on National Defense than Kerry by a 53-42% margin).

Therefore, I think that a pre-election attack is not that likely, unless for some reason the terrorists want Bush re-elected, which is also possible, though highly unlikely.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif

[KA3RFE]

I can almost guarantee that if a terrorist attack happens on our soil agaian, Americans will get so angry that there will be lines around the various military recruiting offices. And the new policy for the war on terror will be "kill first, and let God sort them out. "

I get livid when I see news stories of hostages being beheaded with knives. I'm much too old to volunteer to serve in the armed services but if I were able to go, I'd already be through boot camp.

73, Pete KA3RFE

[AG3Y]

I am really curious, however. If that is the case, how come the opinion of who should be our next president is so evenly divided? #It would seem to me that Bush will never cease his "war against terrorism" and Kerry , based on his record in Congress for the past umpteen years, will hardly wait till the ink is dry on his "official papers" before he starts winding down that same war, first of all, by bringing home the troops !

How can we forget 911, much less the Cole disaster, attacks on our armed forces camps, etc. so quickly, if we actually are a nation that gets "so angry that there will be lines around the recruiting offices" ?

Given the closeness of the polls, it sure doesn't seem to me that we are an "angry" nation. #In fact, I would tend to think that perhaps the opposite is true, and it would take a lot more to get us to "line up at the recruitment centers" ! #

In fact, remember the reaction last week to Bush's fluff about the draft! #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

73, Jim

[K7JBQ]

No one has ever said those guys were stupid.
Truth be told, 9/11 required some pretty serious thinking, planning and logistics.

73,
Bill

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ Oct. 21 2004,10:46)]I am really curious, however. If that is the case, how come the opinion of who should be our next president is so evenly divided? #It would seem to me that Bush will never cease his "war against terrorism" and Kerry , based on his record in Congress for the past umpteen years, will hardly wait till the ink is dry on his "official papers" before he starts winding down that same war, first of all, by bringing home the troops !

How can we forget 911, much less the Cole disaster, attacks on our armed forces camps, etc. so quickly, if we actually are a nation that gets "so angry that there will be lines around the recruiting offices" ?

Given the closeness of the polls, it sure doesn't seem to me that we are an "angry" nation. #In fact, I would tend to think that perhaps the opposite is true, and it would take a lot more to get us to "line up at the recruitment centers" ! #

In fact, remember the reaction last week to Bush's fluff about the draft! #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

73, Jim
Jim,

The bottom line is, it's been 3 years since the attacks, and people can forget a lot in 36 months.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif

[AG3Y]

Yah, Dave, you would have thought that if there were going to be any "beating a path to the recruiter's door" , that it would have happened on "9-12" ! ! ! #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wow.gif

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ Oct. 21 2004,11:04)]Yah, Dave, you would have thought that if there were going to be any "beating a path to the recruiter's door" , that it would have happened on "9-12" ! ! ! #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wow.gif
The point is, tho, that if another attack would happen between now and 2 Nov, it would remind voters that national security is more important than balancing the budget right now (not that a balanced budget is not important, but first we gotta assure the survival of our nation... or do you want the history books to read, "they were destroyed by numerous terrorist attacks, but at least they didn't have a deficit."?) And if voters are thinking national security, they go for Bush.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif

[K6UEY]

I don't think it has been accepted as reality as yet.

A lot of the populace look at 911 as some kind of Computer Game,and when you walk away it no longer is real.

The voters have become Sheeple,and go which ever way the media point them.
Look at the campaign to oust BUSH,it is not based on fact or any logical reasoning, yet it has caught on as maybe it was a new game to play.
No thought as to the ramifications it will have on the country to just oust one president and install another.
Then to put icicng on the cake they are willing to install a Socialist or anyone it doesn't matter,that's the real scary part,they haven't given it any thought as to this being the most important election in decades to come for the country. # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[AB8TM]

They are here now. They are watching and planning.

They are professionals and will strike only when they think the time is right.

[KG6JTB]

AB8TM:

I agree.

If the terrorists strike here before the election, Bush wins.

Therefore, we see the terrorists striking with a fury in Iraq to make Bush look bad.

The terrorists want a Kerry presidency. Think about it, if you could pick your foe, wouldn't you pick someone that that is weak? The terrorists could operate more openly and swiftly if the U.S. president is less concerned with fighting them.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if our troops in Iraq or Afghanistan get hit with a "Tet" style offensive before the election, or their are significant assassinations of new leaders in either country.

Following a Kerry win would be another downturn in the economy. Wall street favors Bush, and any attempt of Kerry to impose restrictions on outsourcing and trade sanctions to save US jobs would be disastrous. Even if Kerry doesn't do this, he will likely spend like crazy & rollback tax cuts. Another terrorist attack against financial targets would be likely at the moment our economy stalls.

I sure wish the Dems could have put a better candidate forward at a time like this.

Dave
KG6JTB

[AB8TM]

Quote[/b] (KG6JTB @ Oct. 22 2004,01:04)]Therefore, we see the terrorists striking with a fury in Iraq to make Bush look bad....

I wouldn't be at all surprised if our troops in Iraq or Afghanistan get hit with a "Tet" style offensive before the election, or their are significant assassinations of new leaders in either country...
That's a good point. Certainly sounds like a good stratagy for the terrorists.

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (AB8TM @ Oct. 21 2004,22:30)]Quote[/b] (KG6JTB @ Oct. 22 2004,01:04)]Therefore, we see the terrorists striking with a fury in Iraq to make Bush look bad....

I wouldn't be at all surprised if our troops in Iraq or Afghanistan get hit with a "Tet" style offensive before the election, or their are significant assassinations of new leaders in either country...
That's a good point. Certainly sounds like a good stratagy for the terrorists.
And, if you recall, the Administration warned us of escalating violence in Iraq heading towards the elections, both here and there.

They are called "terrorists" for a reason... they want to inspire terror, and their preferred way to do that is with random violence. Rather than log onto QRZ and debating politics here, they express their political opinions by promising some naive kid 72 virgins and getting him to strap a bomb to his body and detonate it on a bus full of innocents.

So, since that is their preferred way of expressing their political opinions, expect random bombings in Iraq to keep getting worse until their elections in January.

As for me, I'll stick with good old QRZ. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif

[KB1GYQ]

What disincentive can be offered to someone who is willing to die?! NONE.

"Thinking about it" does nothing. The only course of action (other then blowing up the entire world) is to deal the the source of the problem, the reason why people would develop such hatred.

The incentive for terrorism is a combination of a so-so life in this world, and the promise of a better world to come by killing the infidels.

To stop that one needs to make life in this world better -or- eliminate organized religion.

Since the latter will not happen, human nature being what it is - seeking reason is an unreasonable world - I suggest the former... fixing the world.

Since I already stated that you cannot eliminate organized religion. Lets try using a common thread to the big three... "love your neighbor", found in the Torah, which is considered holy by Judaism, Islam, and Christianity. Or as the Wiccan would put it "do no harm", "live and let live". - Since both ends of that spectrum share that common idea, it must be close to Truth. Oh if only they would follow it!

So as the neohippies would say, "go and commit random acts of kindness".



http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[AG3Y]

GYQ # #Yah, but, the terrorists believe they ARE "fixing the world" by getting rid of the the "undesireables" that surround them ! #Can't you see that ? #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif

[KB1GYQ]

Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ Oct. 22 2004,11:01)]GYQ Yah, but, the terrorists believe they ARE "fixing the world" by getting rid of the the "undesireables" that sorround them ! Can't you see that ? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif
Thus is the problem with religion. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif

[AG3Y]

No, it's not the problem with "religion" it is the problem with "radicalism" ! ! ! Most religions are very peaceful at their core .

[KB1GYQ]

Quote[/b] (AG3Y @ Oct. 22 2004,11:05)]No, it's not the problem with "religion" it is the problem with "radicalism" ! ! ! Most religions are very peaceful at their core .
All religions turn radical if they teach of a better world to come and this one is the pits! Hence the logic behind my original post.

Terrorism is not stopped by war or preperation against it... it is stopped by making the world a better place for all its inhabitants - again, not by eliminating those who disagree, as that is war.

We are now full circle, which is the shape of a cross-section of a beer bottle.

[AB8TM]

Quote[/b] (KB1GYQ @ Oct. 22 2004,10:34)]The incentive for terrorism is a combination of a so-so life in this world, and the promise of a better world to come by killing the infidels.

To stop that one needs to make life in this world better -or- eliminate organized religion.

Since the latter will not happen, human nature being what it is - seeking reason is an unreasonable world - I suggest the former... fixing the world.

Since I already stated that you cannot eliminate organized religion. Lets try using a common thread to the big three... "love your neighbor", found in the Torah, which is considered holy by Judaism, Islam, and Christianity. Or as the Wiccan would put it "do no harm", "live and let live". - Since both ends of that spectrum share that common idea, it must be close to Truth. Oh if only they would follow it!
Quality of life in the Arab world and elsewhere does lead to the recruitment of terrorists and is part of it, no doubt, but there are many terrorists that are also University educated, Drs., lawyers, and own businesses.

What draws these type of people I believe is a cause, and what is a greater cause than fighting in the army of God? (so they believe)

It trancends borders. Nothing short of the Coming of Christ or an Apocalyptic event will stop it entirely, but in the meantime we can kill a whole bunch of them. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[KB2AK]

Organized Religion has been responsible for much bloodshed, bigotry and horror down through history--perhaps because most of it is based upon man-made interpretations, rules and laws saying this is what God wants. We all shall be surprised when we go SK and see the true nature of our Creator--I suspect our narrow minded beliefs will be trashed. #I truly believe this. #Just my humble opinion.

[KG6JTB]

I think religion is just a catalyst to drive recruitment into the ranks. The guys that strap on the bombs think they’re going to meet Allah and be a hero.

I'd bet the top guys in Al Quiada have other ambitions like money and power, just like any other competing world interest.

Dave - KG6JTB

[ai4ep]

really small points to make >>>

All the scum over in the middle east are having a field day, going to IRAQ and killing a few Americans, they dont have to travel over the ocean to the USA soil any more to kill Americans, they can do it right in their own neighborhood...and they have soooo many to choose from. The terrorists are saving money and time by not having to fly over the Atlantic ( or Pacific ) ocean to get to their victims, so they can use the money saved to buy more weapons / ammunition. Some of them can even be back in their neighboring country in time to watch it on their evening news.

Maybe when BUSH wins the election, the terrorists will be so depressed, they will all commit suicide and do every one a big favor....cause you know they will have a big party if KERRY wins.

[ai4ep]

When we DO catch a terrorist, we should never let them know HOW the terrorist got caught...

make them wonder if the AMERICANS just got lucky

or

have we actually figured out some part of their " system / strategy " .

Never let the enemy have any clue how much you know about them.

Like when listening to the DEMOCRATS on HF on 3.955, if you never key up and say any thing, then you dont have to I D, and they never know if you are really listening or not.
( oops ) { you already knew that }

hee hee hee
:0 http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[KC0KBG]

1.) Both Blaise Pascal and G. K. (George Keneth) Chesterton observed that "man never does evil as thourghly as when he believes he is doing good." Hence the problems with religious zelots of all stripes.

2.) Read the novel "Soft Targets" by Dean Ing. Maybe some good ideas on how to fight terrorists.

3.) When you catch a terrorist stick a needle in his arm and loosen his tounge with an appropriate dose of Pentathol or Scopalamine/Hycosine till it wags at both ends. Then start busting upwards through the organization.

4.) The only thing to negotiate with a terrorist is wheather he will be shot or hung.

[W4TEY]

Quote[/b] (KC0KBG @ Nov. 04 2004,23:33)]1.) Both Blaise Pascal and G. K. (George Keneth) Chesterton observed that "man never does evil as thourghly as when he believes he is doing good." Hence the problems with religious zelots of all stripes.

2.) Read the novel "Soft Targets" by Dean Ing. Maybe some good ideas on how to fight terrorists.

3.) When you catch a terrorist stick a needle in his arm and loosen his tounge with an appropriate dose of Pentathol or Scopalamine/Hycosine till it wags at both ends. Then start busting upwards through the organization.

4.) The only thing to negotiate with a terrorist is wheather he will be shot or hung.
I think this the point. Don't try to understand it. Just kill the s.o.b.s and be done with it. It's all they understand. They have to be completely eradicated like cockroaches.

[gw4rcm]

Can anybody on this thread explain to me what the difference is between a terrorist and a freedom fighter.Bearing in mind that all countries in the world have been at one time or other, been one or the other.
Is there a cut off point in time, when you are accepted in the wider world.

RCM

[KB1GYQ]

As was said in the latest James Bond flick, "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter", to which Bond replied, "he's not interested in anyone's freedom".

Random attacks against civilians are not what a "freedom fighter" is about.

[gw4rcm]

Quote[/b] (KB1GYQ @ Nov. 06 2004,18:13)]As was said in the latest James Bond flick, "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter", to which Bond replied, "he's not interested in anyone's freedom".

Random attacks against civilians are not what a "freedom fighter" is about.
You have given me a line from fiction .
Give me me some facts.
RCM

[KB1GYQ]

Quote[/b] (gw4rcm @ Nov. 06 2004,21:27)]Quote[/b] (KB1GYQ @ Nov. 06 2004,18:13)]As was said in the latest James Bond flick, "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter", to which Bond replied, "he's not interested in anyone's freedom".

Random attacks against civilians are not what a "freedom fighter" is about.
You have given me a line from fiction .
Give me me some facts.
RCM
Please explain how focusing attacks on civilians who are only "involved" because of the nation that they have the fortune (or misfortune) of being a citizen of by birth is fighting for freedom.

[kc5nyo]

Quote[/b] (gw4rcm @ Nov. 06 2004,20:04)]Can anybody on this thread explain to me what the difference is between a terrorist and a freedom fighter.Bearing in mind that all countries in the world have been at one time or other, been one or the other.
Is there a cut off point in time, when you are accepted in the wider world.

RCM
................. Of all political labels, "freedom fighter" is perhaps the most blunt term for "friend" - some think that it signals an unwillingness to abandon moral support regardless of methods, an unbreakable alliance between players.........

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fighter)


Terrorism
It is premeditated—planned in advance, rather than an impulsive act of rage.

It is designed to change the existing political order. It is not merely criminal, like the violence that groups such as the mafia use to get money.

** It is aimed at civilians—not at military targets or combat-ready troops. ** (astericks mine)

It is carried out by subnational groups—not by the army of a country.

Terrorist, Guerrilla, Freedom Fighter: What’s the Difference? (http://www.cfrterrorism.org/policy/guerrilla.html)

There are tons of sites if you just Google it. I guess to simplify it, if you have no problem with their tactics, they're freedom fighters. If you do, they're terrorists.

----------------------------------------------------

[gw4rcm]

Quote[/b] (KB1GYQ @ Nov. 06 2004,18:31)]Quote[/b] (gw4rcm @ Nov. 06 2004,21:27)]Quote[/b] (KB1GYQ @ Nov. 06 2004,18:13)]As was said in the latest James Bond flick, "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter", to which Bond replied, "he's not interested in anyone's freedom".

Random attacks against civilians are not what a "freedom fighter" is about.
You have given me a line from fiction .
Give me me some facts.
RCM
Please explain how focusing attacks on civilians who are only "involved" because of the nation that they have the fortune (or misfortune) of being a citizen of by birth is fighting for freedom.
Because governments of that nation are hiding in bunkers.
The only targets of that nation are civilians.
Those same civilians who voted their Government into office.
By that same rule the civilians are complicit in their governments actions.
RCM

[W5MEJ]

Quote[/b] (gw4rcm @ Nov. 06 2004,18:04)]Can anybody on this thread explain to me what the difference is between a terrorist and a freedom fighter.Bearing in mind that all countries in the world have been at one time or other, been one or the other.
Is there a cut off point in time, when you are accepted in the wider world.

RCM
That is actually a very good question, OM...and a tough one to answer. #When OBL and his crew were fighting the old Soviet Union in Afghanistan, we called them Freedom Fighters. #I think they are still using some of the weapons we supplied them.

With all of the activity in the Middle East these days, we haven't heard much news from Ulster or Belfast. #I'm pretty sure that things aren't entirely quiet there, though. #Does the IRA fall into the "Freedom Fighter" or the "terrorist" category?

I think it all depends on your point of view.

Kind of like the difference between a cult and a religion. #Hard to define, and based mostly on numbers and popular acceptance.

[KB1GYQ]

Quote[/b] (gw4rcm @ Nov. 06 2004,21:42)]Quote[/b] (KB1GYQ @ Nov. 06 2004,18:31)]Quote[/b] (gw4rcm @ Nov. 06 2004,21:27)]Quote[/b] (KB1GYQ @ Nov. 06 2004,18:13)]As was said in the latest James Bond flick, "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter", to which Bond replied, "he's not interested in anyone's freedom".

Random attacks against civilians are not what a "freedom fighter" is about.
You have given me a line from fiction .
Give me me some facts.
RCM
Please explain how focusing attacks on civilians who are only "involved" because of the nation that they have the fortune (or misfortune) of being a citizen of by birth is fighting for freedom.
Because governments of that nation are hiding in bunkers.
The only targets of that nation are civilians.
Those same civilians who voted their Government into office.
By that same rule the civilians are complicit in their governments actions.
RCM
For the moment I'll assume you're venting toward the U.S. ...

A terrorist, then, is someone who does not care that 48% of the people s/he kills voted for the other guy.

Perhaps all of the U.K. should be wiped out because of Tony Blair?

And what of all the Iraqis that are being killed by the terrorists who claim just to hate the U.S. ?

[AB8TM]

Quote[/b] (gw4rcm @ Nov. 06 2004,21:04)]Can anybody on this thread explain to me what the difference is between a terrorist and a freedom fighter.Bearing in mind that all countries in the world have been at one time or other, been one or the other.
Is there a cut off point in time, when you are accepted in the wider world.

RCM
I thought GYQ answered you pretty well.

Who's a terrorist and who's a freedom fighter?

That depends on what side you are on and what group you identify with.

Terrorism is another way to make war. Nothing more and nothing less.

Here's another movie reference for you, there was a (bad) movie in the 80's I think called "Red Dawn." It was about a Soviet invasion and High School students using "terrorist" (aka, freedom fighter?) tactics to disrupt the invasion.

Ask 100 people for a definition of terrorism, you will get 100 different answers. The simplest definition usually helps us the most. I think it is just another way of making war, to achieve political, social, econmoical goals (etc.).

Assymetrical warfare is also an aspect of "terrorism" but talking about that is getting a little redundant, since they are basically synonomous.