Latest Electoral College projection

[N7AAO]

Here is what ElectionProjection.com (http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html) has to say about the race as of the time of this posting...

Quote[/b] ]Current Tally - 09/12/04

2000 Adjustment: Bush +3.3%

EV's: Bush 285, Kerry 253

Pct: Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.0%
Remember that it takes 270 Electoral votes to win.

I suspect that the libs are going to be attacking this site, now, so let me refresh your memory about who pointed the site out to me:

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Aug. 27 2004,12:57)]http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Looks like a prety good non-partisan projection source.

And here's a link back to that Golden Oldie of a thread:

The old thread (http://www.qrz.com/ib-bin/ikonboard.cgi?act=ST;f=7;t=69736;st=20)

At this time, I cannot get to my favorite Electoral College site, www.rasmussenreports.com (keep getting time-out errors), but I will post what they say once I am able to get in.

Of course, polls can and do change, but right now it seems that the election is Bush's to lose. Perhaps that's why the Dems are dragging attacks from 4 years ago out of their collective closets.

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[k8mmg]

http://68.185.131.48/bushdance.gif

[W8EFA]

Way too early to start looking at electoral votes.

Remember we have three debates upcoming. If someone doesn't do well that will make a huge difference.

Unfortunately (for you) Bush isn't the sharpest crayon in the box.

[n9yb]

I wonder if the electors will get dragged into court or be asked to sign binding commitments to cast their votes as the electorate they represent directed them?

Corrupting electors could make for some post election folly.

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (n9yb @ Sep. 15 2004,14:35)]I wonder if the electors will get dragged into court or be asked to sign binding commitments to cast their votes as the electorate they represent directed them?

Corrupting electors could make for some post election folly.
I am not 100% certain, but I think that in some states they are already bound by state law... I believe that when they agree to become electors, they sign a contract that they will vote for "x" candidate. Of course, only the winning candidate's electors are sent to the voting.

[K7JBQ]

What's up with Maine?

73,
Bill

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,14:04)]Way too early to start looking at electoral votes.

Remember we have three debates upcoming. If someone doesn't do well that will make a huge difference.

Unfortunately (for you) Bush isn't the sharpest crayon in the box.
If it's way too early, why did you, W8EFA, post that message I quoted above a month ago?

I get it! If Kerry is ahead, we have to concentrate on the polls. If Bush is ahead, it's too early to watch the polls.

Please note also, I said that polls can and do change (in fact, I put it in bold above too)... and I still say that it is too early to call the election. But it's certainly not too early to start watching the polls, sorry.

As for debates, I remember 4 years ago people said Al Gore would take Dubya apart in the polls. Didn't quite happen that way, as I remember.

Kerry has little practical debate experience. He has mostly debated weak opponents in a state without a strong opposition party presence. Dubya has debated one of the strongest state opposition parties in existence, the Texas Democrats, and has also debated on the national stage before (in the 2000 election). He is ready for whatever stunt Kerry wants to pull, and yes, I believe Kerry will try a stunt.

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[K6UEY]

Does anyone know if Kerry intends to show up for the debates in FULL DRESS uniform with all his medals?? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[W8EFA]

Quote[/b] (K6UEY @ Sep. 15 2004,15:18)]Does anyone know if Kerry intends to show up for the debates in FULL DRESS uniform with all his medals?? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif
Is the Maine cowboy going to show up in his jeans, cowboy boots, big belt buckle and his 6 shooter?

If such a person DID show up.. at least you'd know that the accoutrements you mention WOULD be authentic, the person would know how to use them and they would NOT have gotten them by way of some contrived scheme.
:-)

[W8EFA]

AAO

Rasmussen shows a virtual dead heat. 47.3% for Bush and 46.4% for Kerry.

Al Gore did not do as well as people thought in the debates. If you remember he kept sighing into the microphone cause he couldn't believe he had to debate such a loser. Unfortunately it didn't go over well, though he still won the popular vote by quite a big margin.

What really killed him was the NRA in Tenessee and the 2 other states, not utilizing Clinton, , plus Jeb Bush in Florida, and of course the Supreme Court!

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,15:27)]AAO

Rasmussen shows a virtual dead heat. 47.3% for Bush and 46.4% for Kerry.

Al Gore did not do as well as people thought in the debates. If you remember he kept sighing into the microphone cause he couldn't believe he had to debate such a loser. Unfortunately it didn't go over well, though he still won the popular vote by quite a big margin.

What really killed him was the NRA in Tenessee and the 2 other states, not utilizing Clinton, , plus Jeb Bush in Florida, and of course the Supreme Court!
That is what Rasmussen shows for the popular vote.

For the electoral college vote, their current projection is Bush 213, Kerry 175. Of course, Rasmussen doesn't "call" a state for either candidate if the polls are within 5%, but it's still a commanding Bush lead.

Another nice try at spinning, but this thread is not about popular vote polls, but electoral college polls.

Fair Warning! Henceforth, I am going to be ignoring attempts to bring topics other than the electoral college into this thread. You wanna debate something else, start another thread. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

(post edited to clarify position on other topics)

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[W8EFA]

Oh i am sorry oh king of the Talk and Opinions forum. #I know you are real proud and have illusions of grandeur by all your postings on here, personally I think it is pathetic how much time you spend posting on here.

Look back and you will see THAT YOU are the one who first mentioned Al Gore. #All these threads go off in different directions and you are not in charge of any thread whether you started it or not!

Oh and by the way 150 Electoral votes are toss ups so your early numbers don't mean much of anything.

[K6UEY]

N7AAO,
David ,have you noticed that EFA postings are not as confident and arrogant as they were,could some thing be rattling his cage ?? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[ai4ep]

so just another situation of S S D D ??

[K9STH]

EFA:

George W. Bush may have been born on the east coast. But, he was raised in the Midland / Odessa area of Texas.

As many bumper stickers around this part of the country say, "I wasn't born in Texas but I got here as soon as I could"!

A while back when people from New York started coming down here to live there were a number of bumper stickers that said "I (heart) NY". Then other bumper stickers started appearing that said "Texans don't give a damn how they do it in New York" and finally "(heart) NY? Take IH-30 east". The New York bumper stickers soon disappeared!

If you don't believe that George W. is the "sharpest Crayon in the pack", you have never talked with him, especially "one on one". Frankly, I have! Don't let his "western ways" and manner of speaking fool you. He is "one sharp cookie"!

Laura is as sharp as George W. and I have met her as well. Besides, she graduated from the same college as my eldest daughter (Southern Methodist University in Dallas). She may have a "bit" of a southern drawl, but she is one "savy" woman.

George H. W. Bush isn't too dull a person as well. I was one of his personal escorts at a Texas Republican Convention a few years back. Got to talk with him as well.

You do not get to be President of the United States without knowing "how the cow ate the cabbage". You might get some wrong advice (and I definitely believe that Kerry is getting some very bad advice, this from what he has been saying and doing), but dunderheads don't get elected President!

I have met Presidents Eisenhower, Lyndon B. Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, William J. Clinton, and George W. Bush. Have had personal conversations with Carter, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush. Every one of them is "sharp as a tack".

Now, if you really want to meet someone who knows what is going on you need to meet Barbara Bush. Anyone who thought that Hillary Clinton was the "brains" behind Bill Clinton who has meet Barbara knows that Hillary doesn't hold a candle to what Barbara knows! She is one smart woman and she isn't afraid to speak her piece and she doesn't always agree with her husband nor her son!

The press is "offended" because George W. holds many more "town meeting" type of gathering rather than official press conferences. That way he gets his message across to the populace rather than letting the bias of the news media "color" his remarks.

Also, Kerry has "promised" to hold more news conferences if elected. However, and this was in an article in the Dallas Morning News yesterday, he will not even speak to the reporters that are on the same airplane as he. If they ask any pertinent questions they are immediately "shut up" or ignored. Those same reporters have been threatened with being banned from the campaign if they interview anyone who is protesting Kerry, etc. Is that being "open"? Don't believe so!

Anyway, there are some "dyed in the wool" liberals and "dyed in the wool" conservatives who post regularily on QRZ.com. Frankly, although I seldom agree in total with their positions I also recognize their right to post their opinions so long as their posts obey the "rules of the road" of this site, namely

No profanity

No obscenities

No personal attacks

Sometimes the comments get very near the "line". But, I definitely allow both sides to express their opinions so long as the rules are not violated. However, I also realize that nothing that is posted in any of the threads on QRZ.com are going to sway many, if any, votes in either direction. Basically, all that these political discussions do is to take up bandwidth on the site! Fortunately, Fred installed a new server a few days back and, to date, there is still plenty of "space" for all of these comments.

Glen, K9STH

[W8EFA]

Quote[/b] (K6UEY @ Sep. 15 2004,15:49)]N7AAO,
David ,have you noticed that EFA postings are not as confident and arrogant as they were,could some thing be rattling his cage ?? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif
UEY

Don't know what you mean. I am confident that John Kerry will be the next president of the United States. It is a virtual dead heat, Bush is extremely unpopular with very low approval ratings, and I think Kerry will kill him in the debates. Remember they will be sharing a stage and Bush will not be able to respond to direct questions about Iraq, the defecit, the environment etc.

Maybe I am wrong but that is what I believe.

[kc2kde]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,14:04)]Unfortunately (for you) Bush isn't the sharpest crayon in the box.
And Kerry surely isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer!

[nx6d]

STH:

Not to waste bandwidth or anything.

1. Town Hall meetings are the ultimate in spin control. Sorry, but I want my leaders to answer questions from the press. That's a small thing to ask.

2. Bush family smart? Maybe. The evidence is clear that GW Bush didn't accomplish much without substantial help. Do you really want that evidence posted here? I am suspicious of ANYONE (including many of the posters here) that consistently mangle the English language. I know you don't want examples of that here! Does a lack of eloquence speak to brain power? Well, yes it does...

3. Barbara Bush Vs. Hillary Clinton. Agree to disagree. Nothing Barbara Bush has done in public life has impressed me too much. She's opinionated, so what? Democratic women who are opinionated get accused of being "uppity".

4. Seriously, if Fred doesn't like the bandwidth wasted on political talk, he should shut them down. It's his site...

WX7B

[KA8NCR]

Quote[/b] (kc2kde @ Sep. 15 2004,16:14)]Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,14:04)]Unfortunately (for you) Bush isn't the sharpest crayon in the box.
And Kerry surely isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer!
Which begs the question, what does it take to get the shapest people?

[K6UEY]

W8EFA,
Yes the choice we have now is to wait and see how it turns out. The common Liberal Rhetoric is to paint the President as an ignorant bumpkin from Texas,and I'm sure some people really believe that,some people will believe anything,just look at the Dan Rather fans.
Here is a guy who has a Baccalaureate Degree from Yale University, he #has a post graduate Masters Degree in Business Administration from Harvard University,hardly the credentials of a country bumpkin, even in our poorly run educational system. BTW #President Jimmie Carter,remember him? He pronounces Nucleur the same way President Bush pronounces it,and he is a Graduate Nuclear Physicist,could it be they know some thing the biased press does not ?
I think you will find and it is obvious to others in the past G.W. when talking about mundane subject matters will goof up a word or two now and then or stutter now and then,but have you heard him give a serious talk about what he stands for and believe's? I and the serious money is on G.W. Bush in the debates,plus he has been there before and has done that,Kerry has had no prior experience,and everyone blows it the first time out of the chute. You can't count his time on the Senate Floor,since he hasn't shown up there enough times to gain experience.
But again that's why they hold elections,I admit I have been wrong,I bet the people were not stupid enough to elect Clinton a second time,but they were.Sit back have a cool one and watch the President's numbers climb...... #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/cool.gif

[W8EFA]

Why does the whole country make fun of GWB's intelligence? That had to come from somewhere, and that somewhere is GWB himself. Mainly because you can watch him and tell he is a little slow on the uptake. A person's vocabulary had been shown to be a good indication of intelligence. I don't think he is dumb; just don't think he is real smart. I would like our President to be as smart as or smarter than the world leaders he is dealing with. So you combine not being real smart with not being a hard worker and what do you get - someone who doesn't get the job.

You may be surprised but I voted for GWB in the primaries. At that time I was listening to him say he would be a uniter not a divider, and he would be a passionate conservative. As far as I am concerned he is a liar. Nobody has ever polarized the nation like GWB, and he is as far to the right as he can possibly be so I am real disappointed in him.

And no offense Glen but I just don't get this Texas superiority thing. I have been all over the country and I just don't get it. To me California can lay claim to arguably being the "best" state with some of the most beautiful land and cities but you don't hear them always crowing about it.

[w5alt]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,22:18)]...#To me California can lay claim to arguably being the "best" state with some of the most beautiful land and cities but you don't hear them always crowing about it.
Maybe they would if it were true ...

[W8EFA]

Quote[/b] (w5alt @ Sep. 15 2004,19:29)]Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,22:18)]...#To me California can lay claim to arguably being the "best" state with some of the most beautiful land and cities but you don't hear them always crowing about it.
Maybe they would if it were true ...
Uh OH Now I have done it. Here comes the "Don't mess with Texas" thing. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[K6UEY]

W8EFA,
Well of course you are entitled to your opinion and your right to speak it,just as I'm entitled to disagree with it. I think you are being sucked in by the media perception of what an ignorant person is suppose to perform like. I could give you several examples of true ignorance right here on QRZ, but Glen would have my head on a stick, so I leave it at that. I with out any uncertainty would put GW Bush up against any world leader presently in power. And with out a doubt he would defend this country and it's citizens to the utmost .Obviously you have not heard him speak,or watched him do a personal interview. Watch the debates,he will sweep the floor with Kerry,of course that's hardly any measure of a challenge.

As to beautiful California, you are right, you see we already have an influx of the N.E. Unionized Socialist attitude, in fact our state is over run with far left liberals. So we try to keep a low profile to not encourage more to come west. As the Unions in the rust belt slowly destroy all useful employment,those left out in the cold head west for warmer climates.With our new Governor we are trying to reverse the trend,and send the leftist back East and encourage all the business's they chased out of state into comming back.So far he is doing a good job,I personally would like to see more heads cracked but he is usuing the cautious approach and giving them a chance to reform first,then again he has to live closer to them then I do. # # #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/cool.gif

[N7AAO]

I really hate to do this, but...

I have lived in California. I have lived in Florida. I've also lived in Idaho, South Carolina, and Iowa. I have driven through most of the rest of the "lower 48," as well.

Nothing compares to Washington state. So there! http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[w5alt]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,22:37)]Uh OH #Now I have done it. Here comes the "Don't mess with Texas" thing. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif
Hmmm, I didn't mention any state other than California. Guilty conscience, Freudian slip or are you on to something?

73,
Walt, W5ALT
born: Akron, Ohio

[W8EFA]

Quote[/b] (w5alt @ Sep. 15 2004,20:04)]Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,22:37)]Uh OH #Now I have done it. Here comes the "Don't mess with Texas" thing. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif
Hmmm, I didn't mention any state other than California. Guilty conscience, Freudian slip or are you on to something?

73,
Walt, W5ALT
born: Akron, Ohio
Walt,
On to something, I assumed you were from Texas and looked it up to confirm.

Bill W8EFA

[k5rna]

I need new glasses and can't quite make out what AAO posted.Did he say libs,or lids would jump in and>>>ooppps.Never mind.Same thing. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

[N7AAO]

***UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE***

The latest numbers from electionprojection.com (http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html):

Quote[/b] ]Current Tally - 09/19/04

2000 Adjustment: Bush +3.2%

EV's: Bush 328, Kerry 210

Pct: Bush 51.1%, Kerry 47.1%

And, here's some of the gains that the President has made:

Quote[/b] ]Latest Changes

New Polls:
CBS - New York Times, Gallup
Annenberg, New Democrat, Zogby,
Democracy Corps, Pew Research

National Margin
+4.0% (down from +4.1%)

Bush gains Wisconsin!
Bush gains Pennsylvania!
Bush gains Oregon!
Bush gains New Mexico!

And the Kerry slide continues...

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[k8mmg]

http://68.185.131.48/bushdance.gif

Glen,

Can we have a smilie that shows the smilie with a oxygen mask over the face and a small oxygen tank next to it?

After reading AAO's (documented) post of the latest percentages and Electoral Votes totals. I THINK that one or two guys on this T&O section who are staunch Kerry devotees' may need it!

:-)

I WONDER.. HOW will a certain triumverate of Kerry supporters (8 and two 7's) spin THOSE numbers to put KERRY in the top slot? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[W8EFA]

This is not a national site, this is one individual who admits he is a Bush supporter, and has come up with his own formulas!!! Come on AAO this is ridiculous.

Right off the bat look at this "
The first task undertaken was to use the results of the elections of 2000 to arrive at a baseline adjustment which would reflect a zero positive or negative skew of the polling data. In other words, what would be Bush's votes total if his job approval, head-to-head and right track numbers were all exactly neutral (that is, 50%, in most cases)? In theory, he would get exactly the same votes as his challenger

That is a very flawed assumption to start with. It has been proven that an Incumbent with 50% approval rating will not get elected. In is analysis a 50% approval means he will get 50% of the vote. Plus he bases everything of of the 2000 electiion and adjusts those results.

All the other polls except gallup show a virtual dead heat with three debates coming up these polls mean exactly nothing!

This is once again some single individuals site and is not any where close to true a true national company based Poll!

[n3ijw]

National Polls:
Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 43, Nader 1
CBS/NYT: Bush 50, Kerry 41, Nader 3
Gallup: Bush 54, Kerry 40, Nader 3
Pew (11-14): Bush 47, Kerry 46, Nader 1
Pew (8-10): Bush 54, Kerry 38, Nader 2
Harris: Kerry 48, Bush 47, Nader 2
Rasmussen (9/19): Bush 48, Kerry 46

State Polls:
TN: Bush 53, Kerry 37, Nader 1
NH: Bush 49, Kerry 40, Nader 3
OH: 2 New Polls | Bush +7.8 in RCP Avg
MO: Bush +7.5 in RCP Avg | 2 New Polls
AZ: Bush 50, Kerry 39
WV: Bush 45, Kerry 44
NV: Bush 50, Kerry 45, Nader 1
PA: 4 New Polls | RCP Avg Bush Up 3
IL: Research 2000: Kerry 54, Bush 39
IA: Strategic Vision: Bush +2
CO: Bush 45, Kerry 44, Nader 3

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[n3ijw]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 20 2004,09:15)]This is not a national site, this is one individual who admits he is a Bush supporter, and has come up with his own formulas!!! #Come on AAO this is ridiculous.

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Aug. 27 2004,15:57)]http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Looks like a prety good non-partisan projection source.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (n3ijw @ Sep. 20 2004,06:24)]Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 20 2004,09:15)]This is not a national site, this is one individual who admits he is a Bush supporter, and has come up with his own formulas!!! #Come on AAO this is ridiculous.

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Aug. 27 2004,15:57)]http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Looks like a prety good non-partisan projection source.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif
Now we know why EFA is a self-admitted Kerry volunteer... he flip flops as much as Kerry does! http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

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[W8EFA]

You got me there I made a mistake- I didnt previously look in August and see his "formulas". I retract my first reference to this site. I think the other national polls are best

[KC5SAS]

How does Nader keep showing up in the polls? He's not even a member of a national party is he?
Screw it. I'm still gonna vote for Michael Badnarik when the time comes.
http://www.badnarik.org/

[W8EFA]

Quote[/b] (KC5SAS @ Sep. 20 2004,08:25)]How does Nader keep showing up in the polls? #He's not even a member of a national party is he?
Screw it. #I'm still gonna vote for Michael Badnarik when the time comes. #
http://www.badnarik.org/
Just curious - where do the Libertarians stand on abortion. I have looked on a couple of web sites and couldn't find anything?

[K9STH]

The Libertarians are pro-choice just like they are in most cases like drug use, etc.

Now, there are as many Republicans that are pro-choice as there are those that are pro-life, possibly even more. Unfortunately, in most cases, the pro-life people are those that come to the precinct conventions, then to the regional conventions, then to the state conventions, and eventually to the national convention. The result is the pro-life "plank" that comes out of every convention.

At least in Texas there is a group that represents both sides of the question that tries to get the abortion question removed from politics since it only serves as a source of dissention in the party. Unfortunately, the pro-life people claim that any of their side that takes this position has abandoned the program and has become pro-choice. Of course this is not the case. Those people just realize the dissention that this one thing causes and they want to get on to things that really affect the country.

I have heard the elder Barbara Bush express her concerns about the matter. Frankly, she is pro-choice, at least pro-choice under certain circumstances. My wife and I agree with her. We do not approve of abortion for simple birth control, to determine the sex of the child, and so on. But, there are circumstances like rape, incest, health of the mother, etc., that we believe that it should be the woman's choice. We do not say that an abortion should be performed just that it should be the woman's choice in those particular matters. There are plenty of people who are Republicans who feel the same way.

We get telephone calls every so often from the pro-life organizations that try to collect funds for their efforts. They are really astounded when I tell them that we are pro-choice! They just cannot believe that anyone who is active in the Republican party can be anything but pro-life! It is just that these persons never step outside of their own little world and realize that there can actually be people that disagree with them that are not Democrats!

Glen, K9STH

[W8EFA]

Glen, thanks for the info. They (Libertarians) sure don't highlight that stance. It is such a dividing issue I guess.

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 20 2004,10:56)]Glen, thanks for the info. #They (Libertarians) sure don't highlight that stance. #It is such a dividing issue I guess.
Libertarians also don't highlight that they are for 100% drug legalization... no matter what it is, they want it to be legal.

Not too many folks of either party would go along with that one, methinks. As one whose family has had members struggling with substance abuse, I sure as heck can't.

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[N8CPA]

Quote[/b] (N7AAO @ Sep. 15 2004,18:00)]Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 15 2004,14:04)]Way too early to start looking at electoral votes.

Remember we have three debates upcoming. #If someone doesn't do well that will make a huge difference.

Unfortunately (for you) Bush isn't the sharpest crayon in the box.
If it's way too early, why did you, W8EFA, post that message I quoted above a month ago?

I get it! If Kerry is ahead, we have to concentrate on the polls. If Bush is ahead, it's too early to watch the polls.

Please note also, I said that polls can and do change (in fact, I put it in bold above too)... and I still say that it is too early to call the election. But it's certainly not too early to start watching the polls, sorry.

As for debates, I remember 4 years ago people said Al Gore would take Dubya apart in the polls. Didn't quite happen that way, as I remember.

Kerry has little practical debate experience. He has mostly debated weak opponents in a state without a strong opposition party presence. Dubya has debated one of the strongest state opposition parties in existence, the Texas Democrats, and has also debated on the national stage before (in the 2000 election). He is ready for whatever stunt Kerry wants to pull, and yes, I believe Kerry will try a stunt.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif
Dave, references to the Gore debate are unfair. #Remember the Kerry campaign's historical limitations. #You're not allowed to mention anything within the period between 1969 and 2000. Because absolutely nothing happened. So Gore never sighed and rolled his eyes like a valley girl, while looking like a zombie on the TVs across the nation.

However, Kerry does have a strong debating style if preaching to a choir is a debating style. I don't think anyone trusts him enough to be persuaded by any pitch he makes. I really believe that he is the handpicked sacrifial lamb for this year's election, on behalf of the Hillarians. #

Bush's strength, even with malapropisms thrown in, is persuasion through consistency. #So the debates will prove no problem for the good guys.

Also--though this is probably more appropriate to another thread--I don't vote a straight party line, but I rarely vote for Dems. #I think the equus asini is far too noble a creature to be associated with them. #Such creatures work hard, but they know and admit their limitations. #

I think a more approrpiate symbol for the party is the naked mole rat. #That creature lives in tight organized societies ruled by #queens, similar to bees and ants. #And they only reproduce through mother-son incest.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Sep. 20 2004,13:50)]Bush's strength, even with malapropisms thrown in, is persuasion through consistency. #So the debates will prove no problem for the good guys.
I must, respectfully, disagree.

Bush's mail strength is his sincerity. You can tell he truly believes what he says, if you can get past the hatred that many people have for him.

Kerry just comes off looking phony... and that will not play well in the debates. Bush, even with sometimes odd grammar, should play a lot better.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif

[N8CPA]

Quote[/b] (N7AAO @ Sep. 20 2004,17:00)]Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Sep. 20 2004,13:50)]Bush's strength, even with malapropisms thrown in, is persuasion through consistency. #So the debates will prove no problem for the good guys.
I must, respectfully, disagree.

Bush's mail strength is his sincerity. You can tell he truly believes what he says, if you can get past the hatred that many people have for him.

Kerry just comes off looking phony... and that will not play well in the debates. Bush, even with sometimes odd grammar, should play a lot better.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif
I consider his consistency a hallmark of his sincerity. So there really is no dsagreement

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Sep. 20 2004,14:07)]Quote[/b] (N7AAO @ Sep. 20 2004,17:00)]Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Sep. 20 2004,13:50)]Bush's strength, even with malapropisms thrown in, is persuasion through consistency. #So the debates will prove no problem for the good guys.
I must, respectfully, disagree.

Bush's mail strength is his sincerity. You can tell he truly believes what he says, if you can get past the hatred that many people have for him.

Kerry just comes off looking phony... and that will not play well in the debates. Bush, even with sometimes odd grammar, should play a lot better.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif
I consider his consistency a hallmark of his sincerity. So there really is no dsagreement
I disagree that there is no disagreement. So there! http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/unclesam.gif

[n3ijw]

Quote[/b] (W8EFA @ Sep. 20 2004,11:19)]You got me there I made a mistake- I didnt previously look in August and see his "formulas". #I retract my first reference to this site. #I think the other national polls are best
Hey, everyone makes mistakes.

Personally I find the site to be pretty centered. While the author is openly pro-Bush and makes no bones about it in his weblog, I do think he makes a concerted effort to keep his projections unbiased.

I admire his tenacity. His parents were killed in Iraq on March 15th, and he was updating the site again by March 23d. I'm not sure what I would do in that situation.

[N7AAO]

Quote[/b] (n3ijw @ Sep. 20 2004,15:06)]I admire his tenacity. His parents were killed in Iraq on March 15th, and he was updating the site again by March 23d. I'm not sure what I would do in that situation.
Of the ways of dealing with grief, this seems better than some...