KC2USH
05-07-2009, 09:40 PM
im new and dont understand much about the sun cycle but i was wondering f the was a chart of some sort so i can see when 10meter band is going to open up
thanks
thanks
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K0RGR
05-07-2009, 09:49 PM
If you find one that's reliable, please let me know. Perhaps I can use it to predict the winning numbers in this week's lottery drawings.
Right now, it's a guessing game. One group of notable scientists think the sunspots will come roaring back later this year. Another group thinks it will be next year or the year after. There is a growing body of them that think they may not return for another 75-80 years.
I think the overall concensus is that we'll start to see a rise in solar activity soon. But that's been the concensus for a couple years now, and at this point, the solar activity seems to just keep going down. We seem to be going through our third 'bottom' right now. There have been very long minimums before, and we have not set a record yet.
Meanwhile, you can use 10 meter's other propagation mode that doesn't need sunspots. In fact, Eskip seems to be better at the bottom of sunspot cycles than at the top. The Eskip season is already underway and this one should be a barn burner, judging by where we are in the solar cycle.
10 can open up at any time of the day or night. I'd listen on 28.400, and periodically tune around in the CW band for beacons. You can also listen for skip on 11 meters if you have a receiver that works there. If you hear very short skip on 10, listen on 6 meters - it may well be open, too.
Right now, it's a guessing game. One group of notable scientists think the sunspots will come roaring back later this year. Another group thinks it will be next year or the year after. There is a growing body of them that think they may not return for another 75-80 years.
I think the overall concensus is that we'll start to see a rise in solar activity soon. But that's been the concensus for a couple years now, and at this point, the solar activity seems to just keep going down. We seem to be going through our third 'bottom' right now. There have been very long minimums before, and we have not set a record yet.
Meanwhile, you can use 10 meter's other propagation mode that doesn't need sunspots. In fact, Eskip seems to be better at the bottom of sunspot cycles than at the top. The Eskip season is already underway and this one should be a barn burner, judging by where we are in the solar cycle.
10 can open up at any time of the day or night. I'd listen on 28.400, and periodically tune around in the CW band for beacons. You can also listen for skip on 11 meters if you have a receiver that works there. If you hear very short skip on 10, listen on 6 meters - it may well be open, too.
WN9HJW
05-07-2009, 10:17 PM
im new and dont understand much about the sun cycle but i was wondering f the was a chart of some sort so i can see when 10meter band is going to open up
thanks
I would add that the current predictions are here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
And you can get some rough idea of what those sunspot counts might mean in terms of propagation by playing around with propagation prediction applications such as HamCAP, or VOACAP/VOAProp.
In the meantime, as K0RGR mentions, there is Sporadic E to play with.
thanks
I would add that the current predictions are here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
And you can get some rough idea of what those sunspot counts might mean in terms of propagation by playing around with propagation prediction applications such as HamCAP, or VOACAP/VOAProp.
In the meantime, as K0RGR mentions, there is Sporadic E to play with.
KC5FM
05-08-2009, 01:50 AM
im new and dont understand much about the sun cycle but i was wondering f the was a chart of some sort so i can see when 10meter band is going to open up
thanks
Look at this resource (http://bit.ly/mIpE9). I have compiled a number of 10-meter resources. Unlike what some have said, the band is always open, somewhere. :)
It may be open around the corner, but it's still open. :)
73
thanks
Look at this resource (http://bit.ly/mIpE9). I have compiled a number of 10-meter resources. Unlike what some have said, the band is always open, somewhere. :)
It may be open around the corner, but it's still open. :)
73
W6ONV
05-08-2009, 12:41 PM
Here is another resource for 10 meter beacons you might what to mark, 10 meter beacon list (http://userpages.troycable.net/~wj5o/bcn.htm). I keep the dial on 28.400 as well, dropping down to listen to beacon activity. Here in NoCal, I did catch a strong AZ station mobile that was doing rather well. Needless to say that window lasted less than about 20 minutes.
K2QI
05-08-2009, 04:35 PM
I would add that the current predictions are here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/
And you can get some rough idea of what those sunspot counts might mean in terms of propagation by playing around with propagation prediction applications such as HamCAP, or VOACAP/VOAProp.
In the meantime, as K0RGR mentions, there is Sporadic E to play with.
Uugh. If those prediction curves are anywhere near accurate, then we won't expect to see a peak until 2012-2013. This does not bode well. I guess I'll be riding the gray line for a long time to come... :rolleyes:
And you can get some rough idea of what those sunspot counts might mean in terms of propagation by playing around with propagation prediction applications such as HamCAP, or VOACAP/VOAProp.
In the meantime, as K0RGR mentions, there is Sporadic E to play with.
Uugh. If those prediction curves are anywhere near accurate, then we won't expect to see a peak until 2012-2013. This does not bode well. I guess I'll be riding the gray line for a long time to come... :rolleyes:
K0RGR
05-08-2009, 04:50 PM
Uugh. If those prediction curves are anywhere near accurate, then we won't expect to see a peak until 2012-2013. This does not bode well. I guess I'll be riding the gray line for a long time to come... :rolleyes:
Be aware that the higher bands will become usable before we hit the peak. 15 meters usually starts to look great about a year before 10 does, we may not need to wait that long. We have lots of bandwidth on 15, and the band can be very amazing. I don't recall ever working long path to Europe on 10, but it can be fairly common on 15 - along with propagation to the Indian Ocean and Africa that way.
The height of the peak is another potential issue, though. If this is a very low sunspot peak, as some have predicted, we might not see much of the great 10 meter prop we are hoping for. 15 might be the hot band for the next decade or two. On the other hand, some experts are predicting a very high peak, so you'll want to gear up for 6 meters!
It apparently isn't rocket science...
Be aware that the higher bands will become usable before we hit the peak. 15 meters usually starts to look great about a year before 10 does, we may not need to wait that long. We have lots of bandwidth on 15, and the band can be very amazing. I don't recall ever working long path to Europe on 10, but it can be fairly common on 15 - along with propagation to the Indian Ocean and Africa that way.
The height of the peak is another potential issue, though. If this is a very low sunspot peak, as some have predicted, we might not see much of the great 10 meter prop we are hoping for. 15 might be the hot band for the next decade or two. On the other hand, some experts are predicting a very high peak, so you'll want to gear up for 6 meters!
It apparently isn't rocket science...
K2QI
05-08-2009, 04:54 PM
Be aware that the higher bands will become usable before we hit the peak. 15 meters usually starts to look great about a year before 10 does, we may not need to wait that long. We have lots of bandwidth on 15, and the band can be very amazing. I don't recall ever working long path to Europe on 10, but it can be fairly common on 15 - along with propagation to the Indian Ocean and Africa that way.
The height of the peak is another potential issue, though. If this is a very low sunspot peak, as some have predicted, we might not see much of the great 10 meter prop we are hoping for. 15 might be the hot band for the next decade or two. On the other hand, some experts are predicting a very high peak, so you'll want to gear up for 6 meters!
It apparently isn't rocket science...
Good info. I should start looking at 15 more closely. I've gotten into the habit of sitting on 20m during the day and 40/80 at night. I haven't really played around much with the WARC bands either, but I'll look into it as well.
The height of the peak is another potential issue, though. If this is a very low sunspot peak, as some have predicted, we might not see much of the great 10 meter prop we are hoping for. 15 might be the hot band for the next decade or two. On the other hand, some experts are predicting a very high peak, so you'll want to gear up for 6 meters!
It apparently isn't rocket science...
Good info. I should start looking at 15 more closely. I've gotten into the habit of sitting on 20m during the day and 40/80 at night. I haven't really played around much with the WARC bands either, but I'll look into it as well.
WN9HJW
05-08-2009, 10:12 PM
15 meters is actually my favorite band.
WN9HJW
05-09-2009, 11:38 AM
New information just out. http://www.spaceweather.com/headlines/y2009/08may_noaaprediction.php?PHPSESSID=na3n81g5m5cqpae 0aqnpjhlsl6
The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a daily sunspot number of 90. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.
It could be another couple of years before the MUF gets above 28 MHz consistently.
The panel predicts the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with a daily sunspot number of 90. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.
It could be another couple of years before the MUF gets above 28 MHz consistently.
