Amateur Radio Growth, 1st Quarter 2008. A look at the numbers

[K3UD]

Here is the analysis the numbers of individual FCC licensees covering the months of January through March 2008.

Notes:
It looks like the overall ARS numbers have increased by 912 from January through March 2008. Tech/+ had large increases while General had small increases. Novice and Advanced declined, as they always will.

It looks like the Technician license is still the most popular license for newcomers, making good gains over the last 2 quarters, and also seems like the large movement from hams upgrading to General has slowed down to trickle Over the last 6 months. On the other hand we are seeing rather good movement to Extra.

This is the largest quarterly increase I have seen in a long time.

I should point out that what is being posted here are a comparison of two snapshots of the numbers taken at two different times and it should also be mentioned that the numbers change every day, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing. I always use the last day of previous reporting period and the last day of the present reporting period.

Total active individual licenses as of May 14, 2000:
Novice - 49,329
Tech/+ - 334,254
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750

Total all classes - 674,792

Total active individual licenses as of March 31, 2008:
Novice - 19,805 (-59.9%) (-29,524)
Tech/+ - 316,815 (-5.2%) (-17,439)
General - 142,918 (+26.8%) (+30,241)
Advanced - 65,367 (-34.5%) (-34,415)
Extra - 112,850 (+43.3%) (+34,100)


Total All Classes: 656,680 (+912) since the
4th Quarter 2007 reporting period ending December 31.

The numbers above are in comparison to what they were as of May 14, 2000 as this was when the code test was dropped to 5WPM for General and Extra.

Total all classes (5/14/00) - 674,792
Total all Classes (4/21/03) - 687,860
Total all classes (3/31/08) - 656,680

Total loss of 18,112 since 5/14/2000 (Was 674,792)
Total Loss of 31,180 since 4/2003 (all time high of 687,860)

We Gained:
1,563 Tech/+
244 General
831 Extra
+2,638 Total

We lost:
651 Novice
1,075 Advanced
-1,726 Total

+ 912 Gain for the quarter

Numbers of US population and the number of hams at the start of each decade from 1930.

Year Population # Hams Growth Rate
1930 123,202,624 19,000
1940 132,164,569 56,000 +194%
1950 151,325,798 87,000 +55%
1960 179,323,175 230,000 +164%
1970 203,211,926 263,918 +15%
1980 226,545,805 393,353 +49%
1990 248,709,873 502,677 +28%
2000 281,421,906 682,240 +36%
2008 303,000,000 656,680 -3.8% (est. population)

The 2008 number was as of March 31 2008


73
George
K3UD

[k5co]

So much for the theory that we would pick up a lot of new hams due to the no-code getting passed.
Our numbers will continue to decline and it will eventually become impossible to defend the spectrum allocated to the ARS. All things change....ham will go away one day.
:(

[K0RGR]

Ultimately, the question will be how many of those new 1,500 Techs go on to General and Extra. I think that in the past, the percentage was quite low. Now, it should be much better.

[ab1ga]

I suspect a typo or a small error in the section on growth rates, where it shows a decline of -194%, -155%, etc.

Nothing can decline by more than 100%.

[KF6KYI]

As sure as God made little green apples, no matter what the statistics of amateur licensing are, there will be a long line of hams standing in a row, all proudly declaring that "we told you so" and that "see, ham radio is dying". Such whining is at best useless, and more often directly harmful to amateur radio.

Every ham who tells someone that "ham radio is dying" should be viewed as a blot on amateur radio. We are granted use of spectrum as part of our promise to train, self-educate, experiment and to serve the public. If ham radio is dying, look around: it can only be OUR OWN FAULT. And there is obviously stuff we can do about it. Stuff way more useful than just crying while following the other lemmings over the cliff. In the world of computers, there is an acronym which seems applicable: PEBCAK. It stands for Problem Exists Between Chair and Keyboard. If amateur radio isn't all it could be, perhaps we should all begin by examining how we all work to create amateur radio, and what we can individually do to make it better.

[KB1PQB]

i think it was meant to be a dash not a minus. - 145%

[k2dc]

I suspect a typo or a small error in the section on growth rates, where it shows a decline of -194%, -155%, etc.

Nothing can decline by more than 100%.

Between the number of hams and the growth rate is a dash, not a minus sign. A little ambiguous, I'll grant you. But it shows a decline in the number of hams of only 4.5% since the all time high in 2003.

However, hams as a percentage of the population dropped from 0.24% in 2000 to 0.22% this quarter. That's a decline of 9% as a portion of the population. It may not be a great sign for the future, but I would bet that the number of commerically licensed operators are not much higher as a portion of the population. As long as the FCC continues to recognize the value of our contribution to emergency communications and advancement of the art of communications, we've got some time.

73,

Don, K2DC

[K3UD]

I suspect a typo or a small error in the section on growth rates, where it shows a decline of -194%, -155%, etc.

Nothing can decline by more than 100%.


You Are Right :) and the first one who has pointed this out. Thanks for the heads up. I am now using Plus & Minus http://forums.qrz.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

73
George
K3UD

[W5ROY]

I myself and the XYL (KC5EGP) have personally made a conscience effort to promote ham radio as much as possible. We talk it up every chance we get, as we are both officers in our local club. We also pay for and support our local club website<http://www.ka5b.org> This is only a little of what we do to promote the service. Talking to others in a positive manner can accomplish a lot. We can account for several new members to the amateur community. Lets all get behind a great hobby and keep it going.

73 de W5ROY Pres. ENMARC Clovis,NM

[KC8OKG]

Although some of the numbers dont look great in terms of our future, I am optimistic of some of the programs that are taking hold to reach the youth section.
For example, I have started a ham club at the high school I teach at. The support I have received from the ham community as well as the resources that the ARRL are offering to me as an educator are a sign of things moving in the right direction.

I hear some hams say that the young people are not interested in ham radio. What I am finding as a public school teacher is that most kids have never heard of ham radio.

I also want to thank the hams that have supported our club through their patience with our young people on the air.

I really think that the best thing we can do as hams for the future of ham radio is to keep focusing resources on high school and middle school kids. Maybe im biased since I teach young people. Anyway, the new programs out there that help teachers like myself teach kids about ham radio are what we need more of and from the looks of things, the ARRL is stepping up to the plate.
Thanks for reading my post. Sincerely, Greg Sarris KC8OKG

[n7fk]

Stop being so negative, Bob. You crabby old curmudgeon! Things will turn around when the sun decides to cooperate!
73
Fred
N7FK

[KA3JLW]

I agree that schools are where to be. Clubs do a fine job, but schools have the best chance of daily exercise, which is the key to the hobby taking root. I'm 40 now but started in high school with lots of encouragement and another few licensed kids only a phone call away. We had a TON of fun with our own little on-air nets and challenges.

I think we could do a few things to reverse the trend:


Have an easier entry point for hardware, a kind of 2008 keathkit. Something reliable at $200/300, distributed below cost, not a hamfest crapshoot. My idea would be to have ARRL set a few standard specs, release a solicitation and let the OEMs try to out-bid each other to be the "offical starter rig". These could then be loaned out/distributed via schools/awarded, etc. I would have a few bands, very basic controls -and maybe 20 watts out. It might even come with a pre-cut dipole. The idea is simple: let people taste the fun, then they will want to upgrade, learn about antennas, etc.
Have exams and associated privledges that are more meaningful. Extra class should be about operating proficiency, not JUST rote technical knowledge. As a reward, they can now use a KW or homebrew equipment.
Sell ham radio as it associates with other things, not as an island that has interesting things but is separated from the rest of the world. When talking with someone that's interested, show how ham radio can be a part of their existing interests. Like travel? DX! Like gaming? Contesting! Like camping? Field Day! Like space? AMSAT! etc. Like computers? digital modes and controls! Like horses? Ummm... maybe handhelds...
I've been very QRT for 20 years and just came back into the hobby last month. To me, the ham population is noticably larger - and that's good news. It is also noticably older. It is also much more diverse - of course, things like DXCC still exist, but there's whole new modes and bands and technology. There is much for a newbie to enjoy.

K5CO - your glass-half-empty theory may be right and if so, it'll die on OUR watch. We can blame no-code or whatever other reason. Yet ham radio itself is just as fun and relvant as ever - so the fault lies with us.

[ab1ga]

(Edited for brevity)

However, hams as a percentage of the population dropped from 0.24% in 2000 to 0.22% this quarter. That's a decline of 9% as a portion of the population.



Even that number may not be so bad taken in historical context. In the early post-war years, before many of the licensing changes, we only amounted to about 0.12% of the population or so, and many consider that the heyday of ham radio.

Without a lot of work, it's impossible to determine whether a licensee dropped out because of death or disinterest, and the 10 year renewal period introduces a significant lag in the data. We might be seeing the departure of those brought into the hobby by recruitment efforts who wound up just not being that interested.

I continue to believe that rather than try to squeeze square pegs into round holes by presenting ham radio as a means of doing something else, we make a greater effort to recognize the curious types, young and old, who are more likely to be bitten by the radio "bug" good and hard. I do not believe that Internet chat and cell phones are drawing folks away from ham radio, because frankly, using a cell phone or the Internet is mundane, it lacks the buzz that would attract those kinds of people who formed the traditional backbone of ham radio.

[ab0wr]

Even that number may not be so bad taken in historical context. In the early post-war years, before many of the licensing changes, we only amounted to about 0.12% of the population or so, and many consider that the heyday of ham radio.

Without a lot of work, it's impossible to determine whether a licensee dropped out because of death or disinterest, and the 10 year renewal period introduces a significant lag in the data. We might be seeing the departure of those brought into the hobby by recruitment efforts who wound up just not being that interested.

I continue to believe that rather than try to squeeze square pegs into round holes by presenting ham radio as a means of doing something else, we make a greater effort to recognize the curious types, young and old, who are more likely to be bitten by the radio "bug" good and hard. I do not believe that Internet chat and cell phones are drawing folks away from ham radio, because frankly, using a cell phone or the Internet is mundane, it lacks the buzz that would attract those kinds of people who formed the traditional backbone of ham radio.

I think you have it pegged. We are *never* going to interest the younger generation by advertising ham radio as a just another way to communicate.

I think it was N5PVL that first pointed this out to me. The ARRL has always been a decade late with *every*, *single* recruitment slogan they have come up with. Their advertisement of ham radio as a way for families to keep in touch wasn't more than a couple of years old when cell phones made it useless. Their advertisement of ham radio as a way to "network" (i.e. packet) was made obsolete by the internet. Their advertisement of ham radio as a way to talk to people in foreign countries was made useless by Internet Messaging, etc. Their push of amateur radio as *the* ultimate in failsafe communications for first responders will never be more than a niche use as more and more systems are upgraded by public agencies. In fact, their entire push to make amateur radio into a common carrier by emphasizing its use to provide permanent communications infrastructure for third parties will either ultimately doom amateur radio or it will become as useless as everything else.

What we need to concentrate on is not the *common person* by trying to shoehorn them into the amateur community in any way possible just to build up numbers but, instead, those curious souls that you mention that are willing to invest in learning *how* the radio works.

tim ab0wr

[w1yw]

I think you have it pegged. We are *never* going to interest the younger generation by advertising ham radio as a just another way to communicate.

I think it was N5PVL that first pointed this out to me. The ARRL has always been a decade late with *every*, *single* recruitment slogan they have come up with. Their advertisement of ham radio as a way for families to keep in touch wasn't more than a couple of years old when cell phones made it useless. Their advertisement of ham radio as a way to "network" (i.e. packet) was made obsolete by the internet. Their advertisement of ham radio as a way to talk to people in foreign countries was made useless by Internet Messaging, etc. Their push of amateur radio as *the* ultimate in failsafe communications for first responders will never be more than a niche use as more and more systems are upgraded by public agencies. In fact, their entire push to make amateur radio into a common carrier by emphasizing its use to provide permanent communications infrastructure for third parties will either ultimately doom amateur radio or it will become as useless as everything else.

What we need to concentrate on is not the *common person* by trying to shoehorn them into the amateur community in any way possible just to build up numbers but, instead, those curious souls that you mention that are willing to invest in learning *how* the radio works.

tim ab0wr


Dang Tim, that was brilliant!

73,
Chip W1YW

[KI4SYC]

Ultimately, the question will be how many of those new 1,500 Techs go on to General and Extra. I think that in the past, the percentage was quite low. Now, it should be much better.

I passed two exams last year, but I have stalled at Extra. The math is a bit difficult for me. However, I still plan to try and keep trying until I get it right. Any help would be appreciated.

[KA3JLW]

OK, you've all talked about a greater effort to identify the "curious souls" and focus on them. To me, that feels like saying "well, pick the good stocks and buy those." Easy to say - much harder to do.

The question is - how do we identify such people? And what is it that will get them curious?

To me, the biggest hurdle is that ham radio just doesn't exist for most people. So how can the potential interested parties get curious about something that doesn't exist? ARRL may have failed in their specific messaging but the concept of talking up SOMETHING is key.

Now, a SuperBowl ad might be wasted money. But to get to curious people, we'd have to go through some non-curious people. Like any marketing effort, they key is to hit the most people who are likely to be curious.

So here are my initial thoughts:

1. High Schools - work with the teachers (science, math) as a way to further engage their minds and also the kids they have that might be curious.

2. Tech companies. I work for a tech company with 6000 employees, with an average age of under 30. I've never heard a peep about ham radio in any venue at work. We have an employees magazine - a nice feature would play well (techies doing techie things) and probably cause a few people to stop by my desk.

3. As I posted above, have an entry level hardware solution in place. Yeah, I know "you can get a nice used rig for $200". You can also get garbage, and a newbie has now way to tell the difference. There should be a very simple, reliable, plug-and-play digital HF radio (5 knobs, 20 watts) that gets a person playing but certainly leaves them wanting more.

[kcorbx]

If you think ham radio is dead, just give me your radio(s).

[KD4OVM]

I see one thing that is/will effect the ranks of ham radio. How much? Don't know but I see it like I see the Volunteer Fire Service retention problem.

I have been a firefighter since 1967 and started out as a Jr FF (Novice).
My Dad was a Volunteer FF. My two sons are Volunteers. My Oldest two grandsons want to follow the fire service. My youngest son's wife's sister married a Volunteer Fire Chief and that inspires my youngest grandson.

I am currently working with my oldest Grandson teaching him about ham radio.
There are a bunch of times I am holding my 1 year old Granddaughter while DXing or working a net. She likes to talk to her Uncle David KJ4AZU on 10 meters via a third party announcement.

Now to my point. Like in the VFD service, us baby boomers and those younger are not having 5 to 9 children anymore. We are having 1 to 3 kids and that is one reason that ham radio will be hurting. Agree or not that is a fact. Like the VFD Ham radio also depends on our kids getting bit by the bug. Those that become hams with out a family history being involved in Ham radio (like myself) must step up with our kids and Grandkids and do our best in sparking that spark gap between their ears and hopefully they will pick up what we would like them to be. AMATEUR HAM RADIO OPERATORS.

Thank you for reading this.

Tim Wright KD4OVM
Greenup County AEC, OES, NCS
Kentucky
Disabled E-911 operator Former Police Officer
Retired Vounteer Firefighter/EMT-A
Serving the public since 1967 and loving it.

[vk3pb]

Hi all

Here in Australia our representative body, the Wireless Institute of Australia, realised that we were facing extinction so, with the help of the relevant Government Department (ACMA) introduced a new easy entry level license called the Foundation License.

As a result the numbers of Radio Amateurs in Australia has grown strongly, and also in real overall terms. Our hobby is growing.

I think you will find that the Foundation License experience in the UK has been similar and I understand that New Zealand is also considering introducing a Foundation Licence.

Details of the Foundation License can be found here

http://www.wia.org.au/licences/foundation/about/

It seems to me to be a great way to get Scouts and other kids involved in Amateur Radio.

You can also see an interview with a a WIA Director and others discussing the Australian experience with the Foundation License. I had some trouble understanding the Australian interviewer's accent however :)

You can find the interview in episode 14 at

http://www.amateurlogic.com in the downloads area

cheers

Peter VK3PB

[KC9LKW]

may be with the price of everything, like gas, people think they can't afford to get into ham radio. Me and my wife are both new hams. We both got our tech in April of this last year. I upgraded in september to general, and again this month to extra. Even though i can't upgrade my license anymore, i want to continue to learn.I never did well in school, and this is an acomplishment for me. All we can do, is do our best as Hams. Try to bring people into the family of Amateur radio. Let them know, you don't have to have a big chunk of chanage to get started.

[n5ark]

I think one of the best ways to promote ham radio to the younger crowd is make sure they understand they can use the computer with the radio. Digital Modes is what attracted me to ham radio in the first place in my case. And I am sure there are others like me. Also I think there is a common picture in the minds of young people that even heard of Ham Radio. The picture I see most often is a 500Lb guy with radios stuck on him like a magnet, car looks like a millipede upside down on the highway! I have been there done that. We live in a computer world and that is one of the things most younger people know about. It is amazing they are teaching 3rd graders the same stuff I learned in High School about computers. Computers were new when I was in high school and they interested me. You have got to have interest in communications/electronics first I think. I bet that you could stand on a street and ask 100 people about ham radio and maybe 20 have heard of it or knows a ham.

I don't think there is a simple answer. Ham Radio and its future will only be told by time. I do think however there are ways to help. As many people here have stated...let others know what Ham Radio can do. I am totally against forcing someone to get their license. Those just adds false numbers. And again the numbers do not represent how many people actually Own a radio much less operate one. Active or Inactive is the question I have. I know I have went inactive for years and then come back as time and money permitted.

The cell phone world is also killing ham radio in my humble opinion. Like some like to admit it or not a lot of ham came from CB Radio. Why was CB radio used? It was cheap, you could stay in contact with people a few miles away. Then some of the ones with CB's like me realized there had to be a better way. And therefore went searching for information and found Ham Radio. Today we use our cells phone to call people across the street to keep from walking across to talk to them. It is a fact! Also when Cell Phones first come out they were very expensive. Now with Free Phones you almost cant resist having one.

Ham Radio is not for everyone. Never has nor never will be! Also I think there is a common sense that ham radio are only for the ones that have Doctorate Degrees in Electronics, Wealthy retired people or ones that are super smart and can build their own rigs. The first thing most older hams talk about when you meet them is how they built their first rig. I congratulate them on their accomplishment. However with anything you got to keep up with technology. Just like I built my first windows based computer because it was cheaper to do so. Not so today. You can buy a good used cheaper rig and have a lot of fun. That is the first thing I suggest to anyone getting in the hobby. Start out cheap and make sure this is something you really want to do. I have bought a lot of equipment off new hams that spent all this money and it was not what they expected. Also I loan some of my personal equipment to new hams for the same reason. I think we should all make a goal in inspire (Not Force) at least one person to come to the world of Ham Radio. If they like it they will stay..if not they will move on. And I doubt they will be mad at you! In every place in this world there are others with the same interest as others. Don't mislead either as that will cause the numbers to be high but the activity to be low.

Just my opinion.

[W4INF]

ham will go away one day.
:(

With negative attitudes like that, it may...

[N7SGM]

The mere absence of code testing may not be a good criteria to use in determining where we are in the hobby? However I do believe that code testing did keep some amateurs from upgrading. Overall, I wonder if it's just a mixed bag of reasons that our numbers have not soared to record heights. While HT's have come down in price considerably and with many more features, HF rigs have increased in cost.

I think the single most factor in license numbers may be simply due to exposure. Let's face it, if you're not an active ham already, you really don't hear much about it. Then too, I think some folks are inclined to believe it is much like their former experience with CB radio.

I also believe that many hobbies are changing throughout the country. I for one was into big game hunting and snow skiing for years but have since quit both of these activities. These endeavors are very expensive and for me, hard to justify as the cost of living soars.

I think if we educate the public, our future in amateur radio will do just fine. As you all know, it's never been easier to get your Technician ticket. The future in amateur radio will be what we make of it now!

73 de Bob

[KD6NIG]

Ham radio is dying! Ham radio is dying!

Oh, wait, its a contest weekend.

Too many people operating! Can't have my net on the same frequency its been on for fifty years! Ban contesting! Too many ham radio operators on the band at once!

Oh wait, the contest weekend is over.

Ham radio is dying! Ham Radio is dying!

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[KA0SPM]

Ham radio is not dying in this area, However there are some who should be SK. You know the ones.

"There are too many computers in Ham Radio, I do not even know how to turn one on"

"That darn echolink is not real radio"

"I could upgrade to extra any time i wanted but, it doesn't mean anything anymore, since they dropped the code."

"These kids that have gotten their licenses are too much like CBers"

We had a contest weekend at my QTH this last weekend and one of more vocal old Hams and another one who has been repeatedly banned from the local repeaters. Very loudly complained about contesters and contesting, including how horrible they are on the talk-in frequency of the event. One was yelling into the mike to the point of distortion. I will not miss these types in Ham radio. Both of these LID's will tell you all about being licensed for a very long time. The code did not keep these people out of Ham Radio.

[KJ4APD]

I will soon be 70 years of age. I received my ticket in November 2007. In January I upgraded all the way to extra class by really applying myself to a lot of study. For the most part I did that right here on qrz.com where you can take practice tests till they come out of your ears. My encouragement is simply apply yourself to a lot of study til you master the practice tests then when you feel you are ready,go take the test with the confidence that you will pass it. This is a great hobby. in my short time as a ham I have met some very nice people on air. 73s

[w1zp]

Those of us involved in this hobby understand a well -kept secret...that it provides us with a sense of wonder and desire for a lifetime of learning. For all our understanding of radio, whether we hear a faint signal from some far away country or a friend calling from across town on a 2 meter repeater, we experience the mystery that keeps us coming back for more and more. Our hobby has so many dimensions whether it be social, scientific, public service, or just plain fun. Ham radio can be a teaching tool for physics, electronics, electical principles, as well as a way to learn about different cultures from around this shrinking planet of ours, and the great thing is that its all hands-on, close-up and personal as well as extremely public when we're on the air. For the hobby to grow and prosper or just to stay alive, we all have a common duty to spread the word, each in our own way. As licensed hams, we are part of a trust that protects a our spectrum for our use...a spectrum that could easily be sold off to the highest bidder unless we each do our part to protect it. So, go ahead and bring in a new young ham, do some public service, build a home-brewed antenna, rag chew till you drop, and just plain have fun. Spread the word....

[k6dy]

I have only "elmered" two new hams in 7 years. Oh the shame of it!

Tony
K6DY
President Wizard DX Club
WI6ZRD

[w5ese]

While HT's have come down in price considerably and with many more features, HF rigs have increased in cost.


I don't agree that HF rigs are high in cost, particularly compared to what they
have cost historically.

In 1977, I bought a Kenwood TS 520. The list price was $629. Adjusting for
inflation (at http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ) that translates to
$2,197.28 in today's money. You can get a MUCH better radio for about
that much money or less today. A factory assembled Elecraft K3 is
2,089.95.

Remember, the TS 520 was a 5 band rig (80, 40, 20, 15, 10m) with no
digital readout. No 160m.

Radio equipment today is much more affordable.

[n3jq]

The key to adopting a school, is to have an adult ham on the inside. So, step #1, is to recruit one of your local teachers into the hobby. Teachers love to learn, and summer is just around the corner, when teachers take enrichment classes. The ideal situation is a science teacher, with a storage area that can be used as a ham shack. Even if the equipment is simply kept on a desk in the back of the room, students could use it after school, or during lunch-time. The Technician license is primarily shorter communication on VHF/UHF. If an amateur radio club could adopt the school, they could provide some HT's, and a single HF-classroom station, with some wire & coax for a dipole. The teacher could sign-out HT's after school to licensed hams. Some of you might not be keen on Echolink or IRLP, but it adds the international flavor to the hobby. Students can link to hams around the world. So be sure to put a computer with internet in the shack. All of this simple equipment is within the budget of a local club. Maybe even sitting on some shelves at member's homes. Focus on recruiting that teacher on the inside into becoming a licensed ham operator. Go and give a science-class demonstration to your local school. Ask one teacher to let you talk to each one of their science classes all day long. May is a great month, because as weather gets better, and the last day of school draws near, student attention gets hard to keep. It will spark the kids, and (key) recruit the teacher!
Thank you to the Harrisburg Radio Amateur Club in Pennsylvania, for helping me get the Amateur Radio Club of Trinity going in 2003 via the package described above. I teach physics, and all my students must get licensed. I look forward to today's test session, where the 400th license should be awarded. Will they all be hams forever? I don't know. Will I be surrounded by smarter radio-savy voters and citizens? Absolutely!
Sean Barnes, N3JQ - Trinity High School, Camp Hill, PA
n3jq@arrl.net

[w5ese]

I think we could do a few things to reverse the trend:


Have an easier entry point for hardware, a kind of 2008 keathkit. Something reliable at $200/300, distributed below cost, not a hamfest crapshoot. My idea would be to have ARRL set a few standard specs, release a solicitation and let the OEMs try to out-bid each other to be the "offical starter rig". These could then be loaned out/distributed via schools/awarded, etc. I would have a few bands, very basic controls -and maybe 20 watts out. It might even come with a pre-cut dipole. The idea is simple: let people taste the fun, then they will want to upgrade, learn about antennas, etc.



I think there are already many rigs that are attractive in the price space
you mention, or even cheaper.

Consider the Norcal 40A at $139

http://www.fix.net/~jparker/wilderness/nc40a.htm

or a Sierra with 3 band modules would be $295

http://www.fix.net/~jparker/wilderness/sierra.htm

an Elecraft K1 with a 2 band module for $299

http://www.elecraft.com/k1_page.htm

a Elecraft KX-1 with 2 bands for 299.00

http://www.elecraft.com/KX1/KX1.htm

a Bitx20 for $90:

http://www.qrpkits.com/bitx20a.html

a simple direct conversion receiver from Ten-Tec for $32
(who couldn't afford that?)

http://radio.tentec.com/kits/Receiver/

and many other similar projects from Small Wonder Labs, MFJ,
Oak Hills Research, Ten-Tec, etc.

73
Scott
W5ESE

[ki6nui]

Ham radio and the skills ham operators have will increase in importance as the need for emergency communications becomes much more frequent.

I got back into ham radio because I want to learn/get involved with emergency radio services. There will be lots and lots of emergencies throughout the country and the world as we transition into a low energy future. I am talking about the peak and subsequent relentless decline in world production of oil. The world is already past peak for conventional crude and the world is producing 1 million LESS barrels per day of conventional crude than it did in 2005.

This may take time to sink in when you first hear about it. But it is all too real and it's on our doorstep. For a primer on Peak Oil, visit:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

[W0GE]

Now the code is gone. Would the numbers have kept falling if we still had the code. Are they starting to recover because we dumped it? I know some good talent that is now getting into ham radio but I know some that are letting it go. Only Time! Oh Yeah CHU is still there.

[W2ILP]

The problem is not that most kids have not heard of Ham Radio.
The problem is that most intelligent kids have heard of Cell Phones, E-mail, and the Internet.
Ham Radio is becoming a hobby of old timers, who thank it for the memories of their own youth. As the OTs expire, so will the hobby...unless it can be made more sexy or can be a way to broadcast HiFi contemporary music.

w2ilp (Investigating Lost Priorities)

[K0HWY]

For once, W2ILP and find some common ground.

I agree that many young people haven't heard of ham radio. Most kids and adults as well couldn't tell you the difference between ham radio and CB. Come to think of it, there is isn't much difference depending on where you tune on the air. But that's a different matter. Targeting young people as an investment in the future of ham radio is a logical decision but as ILP pointed out, they have other things that are more efficient and above all else, require little if any effort to operate. Ham radio has never been "cool" and that notion is more prevalent today than it's ever been.

Amateur radio isn't dying. It has evolved (or devolved) into something much different than it was a few short years ago. Even so, there will be operators on the air for many years to come. Perhaps there will be less of them, even in the wake of hassle free licensing. Perhaps there will be less spectrum. Who knows what the future holds.

Declination does not equate with death. Amateur radio will go on just as it has for years, changing with the times and associated social attitudes.

[W5HLH]

The problem is not that most kids have not heard of Ham Radio.
The problem is that most intelligent kids have heard of Cell Phones, E-mail, and the Internet.
Ham Radio is becoming a hobby of old timers, who thank it for the memories of their own youth. As the OTs expire, so will the hobby...unless it can be made more sexy or can be a way to broadcast HiFi contemporary music.

w2ilp (Investigating Lost Priorities)

Bingo! We have a winner!

Kids today can play interactive games with people around the world via the internet. They can send text messages and e-mail via mobile phones. Instant, easy worldwide communication is a normal and accepted part of their lives. The sort of thing that turned so many of us on to ham radio back in the 1960s-----being able to have your own radio station and communicating with distant places----is no big deal to them.

Don't dump on the kids; this is the way it has always been with new generations and new technologies. My grandfather would always tell me these stories about taking a cross-country trip on a steam locomotive, what a grand way it was to travel, all the places he saw from the train car. . . . . . . and he could never understand why I wanted him to take me by the airport so I could thrill to the sight of those sleek new Boeing 707 aircraft taking off. I can hear him now: "You don't get to see the country in those things! You just see clouds! There are more important things than getting somewhere in a hurry!"

Well, ham radio is like those steam locomotives that grandaddy loved and mobile phones and the internet are like those 707s that enraptured me.

Maybe we could alter the ham rules a bit, like allowing more experimentation with wireless networking and internet linking technologies, to interest more kids from the digital generation. But that won't change our fundamental problem, namely that was once cutting edge is now mainstream and even boring. We have nothing special to offer any longer.

But, hey, I still enjoy getting an answer to a CQ on 40 meters when I'm running 5 watts. Let's all relax, enjoy what we have, and quit trying to fight social trends we have no control over.

[kd4qhg]

I belive if some that deal with boyscouts and girlscouts could maybe help. If I can remember my boyscouts, it was part of getting a badge by learning Amateur radio. I might be wrong but I believe I recall this to be part of this great club. And if people go to church then they could introduce it to the young kids there and the adults also! Show people at your work because I got 4 intrested in it. Ham radio will die if we the Amateur community let it die! Here in Tompkinsville Kentucky we have every 1st saturday in september the watermelon festival. And it draws about 10,000 people. When I walk around with my HT alot of people ask who do I talk to on it, and I say alot of people around the world...They just look at me in amazement and say: With a little walkie-takie like that? And then I explain to them how it works with using a little antenna point toward the moon or space station, or just talk on local repeaters. In about 2 minutes I had about 15 people gathered around me looking very intrested and asking alot of questiones about different things about how things work. So what I am saying here is that dont complain if your not gonna do your part in introducing Amateur Radio to the community when you have the chance and knowledge to do so. Dont depend on just a hand full to keep up the rest of you...Do your part!

[w6aws]

Our club (N6NA) sponsors a local Montessori school's radio club. Just had 3 students study and pass their Technician licenses. One 11 year old and two 13 year olds. 6 more are currently studying. They are building a 2m transmitter/Fox for an upcoming fox hunt along with an Elecraft K2.

Sure is fun to hear them check in on our local 2m club net.

I would encourage all clubs to find a school or community group to sponsor! There's nothing better than watching a kid make their first contact on the radio. Especially if it is a DX station! :D

Extremely Rewarding Experience to say the least!

[KG8LB]

So much for the theory that we would pick up a lot of new hams due to the no-code getting passed.
Our numbers will continue to decline and it will eventually become impossible to defend the spectrum allocated to the ARS. All things change....ham will go away one day.
:(

But we now have a surge in lo-code "Extras".... and it shows in what used to be the more genteel band segments. The lo-code ARRL (Now known as the Asian Radio Retail Lobby) bred "extras" are making their presence well known. Doubt if they sold enough imported radios to make it worth the damage they have wrought, IMHO.

Boycott the league, we need a replacement:mad:

[KA3JLW]

I think there are already many rigs that are attractive in the price space
you mention, or even cheaper.

Consider the Norcal 40A at $139

http://www.fix.net/~jparker/wilderness/nc40a.htm

...etc...

73
Scott
W5ESE

I know I mentioned Heathkit as an example and it was a bad one. I should have said "...that are not kits..." When I was thinking Heathkit I was thinking a kind of entry level standard, not focused on the kit part.

The list of kits show that the parts can be profitably sold - so I imagine that assembling one, especially if there will be a few thousand units sold, could also be profitable at slightly higher price points.

[n0drb]

I am 48 years old. I'm not an OT, nor am I a kid. I didn't get my start as a Ham by building a homebrew out of Mom's pie pans and some discarded wire. I did learn code for my first Novice ticket, back in the early '80's, and I went QRT for a long time. Re-learned code enough to get my Tech + in the 90's. Playing with CW after that, I just got my speed up to 13 wpm by USING it. Didn't even realize I could copy that well. But it was the only way I could use HF. I had CW, but hated it! To me, CW is dull and impersonal. I want to hear the guy/gal I'm talking too. Just like test messaging today, you lose alot of the inflection, without the voice.Never had the time to study for my General back then, and I was busted back to a Tech when all the code changes came about.
Now, while using my computer on the internet..gasp.. I come across a link to a repeater in California. Now mind you, I am in a very rural part of Texas now, and our repeaters are used mostly for storm spotting and the occasional net, and I'm not used to the way people talk in the city. But when I listened to this repeater being broadcast, I was appalled! It was a bunch, and I mean a BUNCH of young people. That repeater had NO downtime the entire time, (about 2 hours), I listened. All the while I was hoping that SOMEONE was going to break in and give those KIDS a good dressing down! The language, the yelling, the talk of sex, violence, and drugs was disgraceful.
I have teenagers in my house, and I know that if I were to let them run amuck, they would probably turn into one of those kids I heard. It's my responsibility to correct them. No one corrected anyone on this repeater!! What happened to policing ourselves? What happened to preaching etiquette, manners, and courtesy on Ham radio?
I went back to this site a few weeks later to see if perhaps it had been shut down, or cleaned up...Nope, the same stuff was still going on. The ham radio operator that hosted this site even had the link listed as his "Favorite repeater ever"!
Now I know there are good..no...GREAT kids out there that would make a fantastic addition to our hobby, but a hobby like this takes money these days, the kind of money kids want to spend on the neat stuff they can show off to their friends. A QRP rig in their hotrod ain't gonna impress their peer group.
IMHO, I think we need to target an older, more mature age group. Perhaps the 30-50 group that can spend money on leisurely things. A group that will be better spoken when a voice is needed to protect our bands. A group that will command a bit more respect when an emergency arises that needs radio help. Let's face it, when a Emergency Management team is looking for a ham, they'll want someone a bit older. It's just natural.
How do we get this age group? I really don't know. I'm not in marketing. I know I try to tell everyone that wants to listen about my love for the hobby. I do the storm spotting thing. I have my callsign on my vehicle, and one antenna on top.
Anyway, I don't think the school thing is such a great idea. Maybe Im one of those curmudgeons? Possibly. But I know what I heard coming from kids on a ham repeater and it scared me. Don't get me wrong, I love kids. I have 4 teenage boys of my own. I coach kids from age 9-17 in martial arts. But if this is the way Ham radio has to go to keep it's numbers up, let the numbers die. I can listen to my old CB if I want an update on the many ways to cuss someone.
73
Dan
N0DRB

[KD4WDG]

If you are all really concerned about losing spectrum and how many Technicians are going to be upgrading to General and beyond, how about opening up the CW portions of the Technician band’s to include DIGITAL with a 20 ERP restriction.

It seems to me, that would be more advantageous to the hobby as a whole, to quit trying to convince every NEW HAM that they can talk around the world, through their local repeaters, simply by purchasing a high priced D-STAR radio or hooking up their computers into the Echo Link system.

Very rarely, do I ever hear, any of my General, Advanced or Extra Class operators, explaining to the newcomers, that there are 50 + FREE-STAR digital modes available to them, where they can work the world on 20 Watts and a piece of wire, that’s not connected to the Internet through a computer backbone.

ra•di•o n., pl. ra•di•os. Abbr. rad. 1. The wireless transmission through space of electromagnetic waves in the approximate frequency range from 10 kilohertz to 300,000 megahertz.

For about the same cost as one of the specialty mode, two or three band radio, the average newcomer can purchase an all band, all mode, 100 WATT
Transceiver, download any number of FREE amateur radio digital programs,
and like I said before, work the world on twenty watts and a piece of wire.

Every time I hear people concerned about loosing spectrum, I have to laugh.
Go to the Internet and pull up a map of the licensed operators, in your own zip code area, and then tell me why all these folks are on repeaters, chewing the rag for hours, instead of contacting each other on the rarely used simplex
portions of the bands.

I fall off my chair when I hear the EXTRA Guys on 80 Meters, 25 miles away
from each other, pushing a Kw and complaining that the band has GONE
LONG and is in BAD SHAPE TONIGHT. Mind you these are the same folks,
that are about to nail my ticket to the floor boards, for suggesting, that I
( a lowly no-code Tech. ), should have 20 watt digital privileges on those
bands.

73's KD4WDG

[w6abm]

Another way to look at this data is to measure the number of amateur radio operators per million population...
Year Per Million
1930 154
1940 424
1950 575
1960 1283
1970 1299
1980 1736
1990 2021
2000 2424
2008 2167

Many of us were licensed in the 1950s. This group is going SK at a typical rate. Unless we grow at a rate faster than the typical death rate, we will decline as compared to the population.

Our Tech Classes are well attended. Our General Class upgrade series has fewer members, but everyone in them makes the step to the higher class license.

Ham radio is growing...and there is increasing interest in middle age.

Everett W6ABM

[KC8OKG]

Hello, thanks for reading my post.
With all due respect--the following quote from an earlier post below is the reason we are failing to attract young people.

Bingo! We have a winner!

Kids today can play interactive games with people around the world via the internet. They can send text messages and e-mail via mobile phones. Instant, easy worldwide communication is a normal and accepted part of their lives. The sort of thing that turned so many of us on to ham radio back in the 1960s-----being able to have your own radio station and communicating with distant places----is no big deal to them.

It IS a big deal to them.

I am in the process of recruiting kids for a high school club I started a few months back------and guess what???

The kids are just as thrilled to make long distance contacts over the air as many of you guys were in the 50's, 60's and 70's.-- for real.
Dont tell me that kids need to see the latest and greatest equipment either. Our station consists of a Drake c line and a Kenwood 830s. The kids love it!!!!!
I teach tech ed in a public school located about 1 mile from the city limits of Baltimore.--Our club is growing daily!
According to my observations about kids (who I work with every day) most hams (including those who have posted on this topic) are dead wrong when they assume that kids think its no big deal to make contacts around the globe.
What is really happening is this---older hams (who have shoeboxes of qslcards in the attic) think it is no big deal and ASSUME that kids think the same thing.

Here is what I have found to be true with kids and ham radio.
Dont talk about how great it is to communicate with other people around the globe---Demonstrate it!

After setting up our station--the kids came with a great interest.
I have kids there some evenings until 7:00 pm. The kids in our club are all different as well,,,some highly academic, some sports minded, and others in between. They all seem to be amazed by the traditional aspect of the MAGIC OF RADIO.--just like you and I were years ago. You should see the grin on their faces when after calling CQ for a few min's--out of the static comes a warm voice and our callsign back to us. Yes---just like the old days!!

I have nothing against the latest and greatest communication technologies.
The problem with trying to woo the kids with the latest and greatest is--the toys the kids have these days (including their cell phones) are all more advanced than the latest and greatest in ham radio--therefore--trying to wow them with whats new will always end up in failure.
The truth is-the kids in our club are lining up to learn CODE via the G4FON program--they think the code is cool!!!!-cause it is even still.

What it seems they could give a hoot about IS the latest and greatest--cause that is what is all around them to begin with!

In conclusion, believe it or not, if you want to attract kids to ham radio--you need to have the same excitement you had for the hobby back in the day.
Sure, I jump up and down and back and forth when they make a great contact--and they think it is a big deal --cause it still is!!!
With all due respect--many people who ASSUME that kids think a certain way really dont work with kids everyday.
Thank you again, Greg Sarris
Our club is K3TPD Dundalk High School

[KI4SYC]

I will soon be 70 years of age. I received my ticket in November 2007. In January I upgraded all the way to extra class by really applying myself to a lot of study. For the most part I did that right here on qrz.com where you can take practice tests till they come out of your ears. My encouragement is simply apply yourself to a lot of study til you master the practice tests then when you feel you are ready,go take the test with the confidence that you will pass it. This is a great hobby. in my short time as a ham I have met some very nice people on air. 73s

I took two tests last year at the age of 42. I now need to get on with it and make the leap to Extra. Any help with the math would be appreciated.

[KB1SF]

As sure as God made little green apples, no matter what the statistics of amateur licensing are, there will be a long line of hams standing in a row, all proudly declaring that "we told you so" and that "see, ham radio is dying". Such whining is at best useless, and more often directly harmful to amateur radio.

Every ham who tells someone that "ham radio is dying" should be viewed as a blot on amateur radio.

Mark, I wholeheartedly DISAGREE!

Our Service IS dying…literally. That's a fact.

And, because our licensing system is on a ten-year renewal cycle, it is also critically important to remember that the statistics George is "slicing and dicing" contain data that will ALWAYS be ten years out of date. Who knows how many licensees in the current FCC database have either died, or "voted with their feet" since 1998?

Certainly, we are seeing SOME growth as a result of the FCC (finally) ditching their arcane Morse testing requirement. But, at best, we are still only seeing at an indeterminate portion of the real story. And we only have to listen to the ever-growing silence on our bands as of late to know that all is not well with our Service.

Using George's data, and by my calculations, a net LOSS of some 6000-8000 licensees per year since 2003 (or is it 1998?) absolutely does NOT bode well for our long-term viability as a Service. And sticking our heads in the sand and blindly repeating the mantra that "all is well" is disingenuous at best and downright myopic at worst.

To me, THE most frightening statistic that nobody really wants to talk about regarding our Service is that the average age of a licensee in our Service these days is now headed quite steadily "north" of age 60. For whatever reason, our Service is simply not attracting youngsters like we were in the mid 20th Century.

As an accredited examiner on both sides of the US/Canadian border, I can personally count on the fingers of one hand the number of under "twenty-somethings" I've administered tests to lately. Rather, I'm seeing more and more retirees and people who used to be Hams but who let things lapse while they had careers and families.

I believe my 15-year-old daughter probably summed the problem up best when I (once again) asked if she'd like to study and get her Ham license. To that question, she casually replied, "Why should I go through all that largely irrelevant licensing nonsense just so I can talk to a bunch of your old geezer friends?"

Sadly, while aging, baby boomer newcomers (or "retreads") to the hobby will sustain our Service for a time, this ever expanding (and therefore largely self-perpetuating) "old geezer factor" in our current demographic does NOT bode well for our long-term growth and sustainability as a separate radio service.

Clearly, what we do (and the work/reward equation associated with granting full access to what we do) has become unattractive to our youth. I believe a large part of that unattractiveness is directly related to our own FCC's obsessively clinging to long-since outdated (so-called "incentive") 1950s-era licensing requirements...requirements that have now become so horrifically out of date (and therefore, completely out of touch) with the technological, operational and social realities for a so-called "amateur" radio service in the 21st Century as to be laughable.

The young people of today now have FAR more "license free" (not to mention off-the-shelf) ways they can electronically communicate with their peers. Why then, are we surprised when our youngsters express little interest in passing what they (correctly) perceive as a series of ever-more irrelevant "achievement tests" just to be able to discuss such wildly popular topics as how one's latest heart bypass surgery went with the increasing number of "old geezers" (their words) they hear on our Ham bands?

To an ever-growing segment of younger would-be Hams, the rewards a "full access" license in our Service grants clearly no longer justify the work required to attain them...particularly when that work goes WELL beyond what they (correctly) perceive (by comparison to what's needed for other government-issued licenses) is minimally required to insure safe and courteous operation on ALL of our bands.

Unless and until that work/reward equation granting FULL access to our hobby is brought more into line with today's technological and social realities, our Service WILL continue to be increasingly unattractive to today's youth.

And, as a direct result, our Service WILL continue down the road we are clearly now on toward the dustbin of radio history.


73,

Keith
KB1SF / VA3KSF
(Certified "old geezer")

[NN4RH]

These small changes in the growth or decline of numbers of license holders are meaningless. What should matters is the number of active hams who actually get on the air - and there is no accurate measure of that.

If someone who crammed for a license never gets on the air, that artificially inflates the license numbers but does nothing for the vitality of ham radio. It does not show that ham radio is 'growing'.

Or someone who did it 10 years ago but never got on the air, and since then has not renewed, causes the license count to go down. But that doesn't degrade ham radio and does not mean ham radio is "dying".

I suspect that of the 670,000 licensed hams, probably less than half actually ever are on the air. Possibly much, much less. If there really were 670,000 active US hams there would never been any space on the HF bands and all the VHF/UHF repeaters and simplex channels would be constantly tied up.

We could lose 50% of the licensees and nobody would notice - ham radio would be no more dead or alive than it is now with half as many licensees.

[w5ese]

I am in the process of recruiting kids for a high school club I started a few months back------and guess what???

The kids are just as thrilled to make long distance contacts over the air as many of you guys were in the 50's, 60's and 70's.-- for real.
Dont tell me that kids need to see the latest and greatest equipment either. Our station consists of a Drake c line and a Kenwood 830s. The kids love it!!!!!
I teach tech ed in a public school located about 1 mile from the city limits of Baltimore.--Our club is growing daily!
According to my observations about kids (who I work with every day) most hams (including those who have posted on this topic) are dead wrong when they assume that kids think its no big deal to make contacts around the globe.
What is really happening is this---older hams (who have shoeboxes of qslcards in the attic) think it is no big deal and ASSUME that kids think the same thing.

Here is what I have found to be true with kids and ham radio.
Don't talk about how great it is to communicate with other people around the globe---Demonstrate it!

After setting up our station--the kids came with a great interest.
I have kids there some evenings until 7:00 pm. The kids in our club are all different as well,,,some highly academic, some sports minded, and others in between. They all seem to be amazed by the traditional aspect of the MAGIC OF RADIO.--just like you and I were years ago. You should see the grin on their faces when after calling CQ for a few min's--out of the static comes a warm voice and our callsign back to us. Yes---just like the old days!!

I have nothing against the latest and greatest communication technologies.
The problem with trying to woo the kids with the latest and greatest is--the toys the kids have these days (including their cell phones) are all more advanced than the latest and greatest in ham radio--therefore--trying to wow them with whats new will always end up in failure.
The truth is-the kids in our club are lining up to learn CODE via the G4FON program--they think the code is cool!!!!-cause it is even still.


Excellent post by Greg. Certainly someone who would know.

One thing you may want to try out with your club is a
building project.

The Ten-Tec TKIT 1056 Direct Conversion receiver would be a good
one to look at.

http://radio.tentec.com/kits/Receiver/

The component count is not high, and the receiver works very
well. So you have a piece of gear that performs well when you're
done.

You can put the 1056 on any single band you prefer, though
it will work best on the wavelengths below 20 meters. I built
mine for 40 meters, and it works great. Really a joy to listen
to.

At $32 for the receiver board kit, it should be affordable for
most kids.

And for those learning Morse Code, there are some great kits
that are not complicated, like the Wilderness Radio SST, the
Small Wonder Labs SW+, or the MFJ Cub. The Cub may require
a simple mod to reduce drift.

Also, the DC-40A should be pretty easy to get going, and is
not expensive.

http://www.qrpkits.com/dc40a.html

I've built several Rockmites from Small Wonder Labs, but they
are very backordered right now.

73
Scott
W5ESE

[w5ese]

I suspect that of the 670,000 licensed hams, probably less than half actually ever are on the air. Possibly much, much less. If there really were 670,000 active US hams there would never been any space on the HF bands and all the VHF/UHF repeaters and simplex channels would be constantly tied up.

We could lose 50% of the licensees and nobody would notice - ham radio would be no more dead or alive than it is now with half as many licensees.


You're spot on.

When I was first licensed, there were about 350,000 hams. And the HF
bands were crowded.

Nowdays, everyone shows up in DX pileups, or on contest weekends,
but there is less casual ragchewing activity. Kind of a pity, I think.

I think many on the license rolls acquired their license when 2 meter
rigs became inexpensive, and used the autopatch in lieu of what
people use cell phones for today. But today, they use cell phones
instead.

When they bought a new car, they took the antenna off the old one,
but never bothered to install the radio and antenna in the new car.

For the most part, they won't renew their licenses, and no one will
notice the difference on the air.

73
Scott
W5ESE

[KC8OKG]

Scott, thanks for the links to the kits. I will look into them this week.

Keith said Clearly, what we do (and the work/reward equation associated with granting full access to what we do) has become unattractive to our youth. I believe a large part of that unattractiveness is directly related to our own FCC's obsessively clinging to long-since outdated (so-called "incentive") 1950s-era licensing requirements...requirements that have now become so horrifically out of date (and therefore, completely out of touch) with the technological, operational and social realities for a so-called "amateur" radio service in the 21st Century as to be laughable.

Keith, If the above is referring to code testing and such, I used to think the same thing as you, until I started working with the kids at our school. In my ongoing experiences with recruiting kids in our ham club the code is what the kids want to learn most of all!!! Cause that is what is different and new to them!
I know many of you think Im pulling your legs---but its true.

Believe it or not guys, if our club continues to grow as it has the past few months, in a week or so we will have more members now than they had at our club in the early 60's before it folded in the 70's.

Yes,,,there is the old geezer segment---so here is what I do.
I dont promote old geezer nets
I dont promote old geezer vhf nets
I dont talk to other hams about knee replacements, and if they were to start talking about that----id spin the tuning knob for the kids.
The most the old guys get out of me is a talk about lawn fertilizer perhaps---but thats it------no talk about the latest medications out there from me.
Then again, im lucky to be young enough where that is not a large portion of my life.
I dont hide the realities of ham radio from the kids,,,,but I sure as heck dont use 2m repeaters as a hook to catch the young people--cause they probably wont find it interesting. In 32 years old and dont find most vhf nets/repeaters interesting either. But, if the kids find that interesting--then I will do whatever I can to help them in that direction as well.

Sure, there are kids out there that wont appreciate the magic of radio (yes, it is still magic no matter how many qso's I have under my belt)--but that is just like before as well. Not everyone in the 50's and 60's thought it was thrilling either! (my own father as an example)

Kids can pick up on whether or not you as the experienced operator are thrilled and excited with ham radio. If experienced ops dont feel excited, the kids wont either.

There are many older hams out there who dont believe in the so called magic of radio cause they are so used to it--but if the kids perceive that ho hum attitude towards radio--then of course they wont want to have anything to do with it.

I know that I wouldnt be interested in learning a hobby that even the people involved dont feel is cool.
Thanks for reading my post.
I sincerely hope I didnt offend anyone, however, this topic is very relevant and important to me and my teaching career at the present. I am trying to recruit students on a day by day basis. I also want to thank the hams out there who have had wonderful qso's with our young club members over the past few months. Our club is K3TPD Thanks and 73. Greg

[k6crc]

A positive, upbeat attitude is what young people want to see. Age doesn't matter as much as demeanor. If a grumpy, disheveled old person defines the hobby, then it will die with the current generation.

The best thing the hobby can do is to keep interested young people off the ham internet sites for a while ;-)

[KB1SF]

Keith said: "Clearly, what we do (and the work/reward equation associated with granting full access to what we do) has become unattractive to our youth. I believe a large part of that unattractiveness is directly related to our own FCC's obsessively clinging to long-since outdated (so-called "incentive") 1950s-era licensing requirements...requirements that have now become so horrifically out of date (and therefore, completely out of touch) with the technological, operational and social realities for a so-called "amateur" radio service in the 21st Century as to be laughable."

Keith, If the above is referring to code testing and such, I used to think the same thing as you, until I started working with the kids at our school. In my ongoing experiences with recruiting kids in our ham club the code is what the kids want to learn most of all!!! Cause that is what is different and new to them!
I know many of you think Im pulling your legs---but its true.



No, Greg, I'm talking about a so-called "incentive licensing" system where the content and comprehensiveness of the exams in no way relate to the SPECIFIC operational privileges granted.

I'm talking about a licensing system that allows "wet-behind-the-ears" Technicians, after passing a horrifically simple, 35 question exam, the "privilege" of building and operating, for example, a full KW amplifier (from scratch, no less!) for 2.4 GHz and then aiming the antenna at themselves (or their neighbors) at full tilt, thereby causing irreparable eye damage to both.

And I'm ALSO talking about a licensing system where the content and comprehensiveness of what's on the General Class examination (and ALL of what's on the Extra Class exam!) go WELL beyond what is minimally required by the international Radio Regulations to provide a reasonable assurance that such license holders will, in fact, operate their stations in a safe and courteous manner with the added privileges those licenses specifically grant.

What's more, such blatant disconnects in our current licensing system have now make our higher-class exams (particularly the one for the Extra Class license) systemically discriminatory (spelled “illegal”) under a whole plethora of current US federal equal access laws as well.

In fact, I firmly believe the declining popularity of our Service to newcomers over the last half-century has been caused, at least in part, by the FCC's decision over 50 years ago to "dumb up" what used to just be a simple series of licensing tests for our Service for the higher classes of licenses while horrifically "dumbing down" the entry requirements for beginners. Sadly, as a result of such "ego-based" foolishness, today's newly licensed Technicians have now become a very real safety hazard to themselves and their neighbors while attaining our higher class licenses has become less and less attractive to the younger set because the "need to have" vice the "nice to have" information ratio these exams require of applicants is now so horrifically out of balance.

Most US Hams are also blissfully ignorant of the fact that (thankfully!) most governments in the rest of the world steadfastly refrained from buying into the FCC's ego-stroking, incentive licensing overkill for THEIR Amateur Services. In fact, throughout the rest of the world, Amateur licenses are usually regarded as “certificates of safety", much like the written test one takes to obtain a license to operate a private motor vehicle.

That is, THEIR licensing systems are specifically designed to be just comprehensive enough to do NOTHING MORE than provide a reasonable assurance to government regulators that an applicant for a Ham license won't become a safety hazard or a nuisance to his or her self (or their neighbors) or become a nuisance to others on the bands, or to other services.

Right now, I firmly believe NONE of our examinations provide such "reasonable assurance"...at least not at the appropriate level. The tests for the Technician (i.e. beginner) license are clearly not comprehensive enough, while the exams for the higher class licenses (particularly that required for the Extra Class) are needlessly so.

What's more, elsewhere in the world, the Amateur Service is largely regulated by bandwidth, NOT by license class and operating mode as it is here in the United States. Needless to say, this FAR more progressive approach to regulating our Service elsewhere provides those other administrations with a great deal more flexibility than we in the United States now have to change band allocations and permitted emission types as the technology (and the popularity of that technology) changes.

On the other hand, (and largely because of the FCC's "incentive licensing" foolishness) OUR frequency and regulated sub-band allocations still largely reflect Amateur Radio technology as it existed in the late 1950s.

As I have said, in most other countries, the safety issue of power output (vice frequency and operating mode) as well as being allowed to build and operate transmitters "from scratch" are often the central factors that differentiate one license class from another.

Would someone please explain to me what SPECIFIC additional technical or operational skills (beyond those required to obtain a General Class license) are absolutely required to safely and courteously operate in the so-called “Extra Class” portions of OUR bands? And, how does mastering all 600-plus pages of the ARRL's Extra Class License manual (a "hazing ritual" required by all but the most learned BSEEs in our ranks) to successfully PASS that examination DIRECTLY relate in ANY way to the skills required to fill out an application for a so-called “exclusive” call sign?

Yet, right now, being able to operate in the "exclusive" sub-bands reserved specifically for Extras and obtaining an "exclusive" call sign are the ONLY two operational privileges specifically reserved for Extra Class Licensees in our Service in the United States. What's more, NEITHER of those additional operating privileges are directly tied to improving safety or preventing non-interference. Rather, they are simply designed to further stroke someone's already over-inflated ego.

Or, to put it another way, the so-called "incentives" built into our current licensing system are ALL designed to stroke someone's ego, NOT to help assure safety or non-interference to others.

The bottom line here is that most of REST of the world's higher-class Amateur Radio licensees are NOT tied to a set of silly (not to mention increasingly irrelevant) "achievement tests" in a licensing system that looks for all the world like the adult version of the Boy Scouts…complete with the requirement to earn a specified number of "merit badges" before being allowed to progress on to the next higher "class". Likewise, the REST of the world's Amateur Radio licenses DO NOT grant "from scratch" transmitter construction and/or high-power operational privileges to inexperienced beginners.

By now, it is painfully obvious that all the 1950s era, "techno-snob appeal" built into our current licensing structure is no longer a motivator for most people to join our ranks and then upgrade all the way to Extra Class. Otherwise, why have nearly half of all US Hams never even bothered to upgrade beyond the Technician license? And why is our Ham population now continuing to shrink rather than expand?

Sadly, ours has now become a slowly dying Radio Service and our ever-aging demographics prove it. As I have said, it is an irrefutable fact that our average age is now approaching 60 and the number of Amateur Radio licensees hasn't grown in the United States since 2003 (or 1998 if you take into account that the license data we're looking at will always be 10 years out of date).

BOTH of these downward trends show absolutely NO sign of reversing themselves anytime soon.

However, based on their regulatory actions in our Service over the last 20 years (including their latest decision to drop all forms of Morse testing), it's absolutely clear the FCC has (finally!) recognized the horrific, constrictive mess their predecessors made of our licensing and regulatory system when they first hatched their stupid "license-class-and-operating-mode-based" foolishness back in the 1950s.

And, as a direct result of that realization, I also firmly believe the FCC (with the ARRL's behind-the-scenes tacit approval) has now embarked on a plan that will largely de-regulate our Service, allowing it to revert back to the time when our licensing system was aimed primarily at insuring non-interference and the safety of its operators (and their neighbors).

That is, after assuring applicants were well versed in these critical aspects of what we do, our licensing system in the United States USED to be comprised of forward-looking licenses to learn, rather than a meaningless series of ego-stroking "rewards" tied to an ever-more irrelevant set of backward looking "achievement tests" that have accomplished absolutely NOTHING but to perpetuate an entrenched (and now blatantly illegal) institutionalized snobbery.

Whether these changes will prove to be “too little too late” for our Service remains yet to be seen.

73,

Keith
KB1SF / VA3KSF

[KB1SF]

I think you have it pegged. We are *never* going to interest the younger generation by advertising ham radio as a just another way to communicate.

What we need to concentrate on is not the *common person* by trying to shoehorn them into the amateur community in any way possible just to build up numbers but, instead, those curious souls that you mention that are willing to invest in learning *how* the radio works.

tim ab0wr

It never ceases to amaze me how many people in our ranks seem to still (mistakenly) believe that the technical aspects of Amateur Radio are the sole reason for its existence and its sole attraction to potential newcomers.

However, when one actually looks at the international definition of our Service, they might be surprised to find that the technical aspects of our hobby were always meant to be only one part of it.

To wit, the International Telecommunications Union (the ITU which regulates our Service internationally) says that ours is to be a "radiocommunication service in which radio apparatus are used for the purpose of self-training, intercommunication AND (emphasis mine) technical investigation by individuals who are interested in radio technique solely with a personal aim and without pecuniary interest."

Note the ITU uses the words "intercommunication" and "self-training" ALONG WITH words about "technical investigation" as equal tenets in that definition. And NOWHERE in that definition (or in the guidelines that accompany it) does it state TO WHAT LEVEL that “technical investigation” is supposed to be carried out.

As I have stated elsewhere, the sad results of our own FCC's nearly half-century of "incentive licensing"…a licensing system which has clearly over-emphasized the "technical investigation" (some would also say "professional") aspects of our Service at the upper end of our license structure at the obvious expense of the communicating part…are now coming home to roost and are clearly being reflected in our ever-shrinking numbers.

And, lest I unleash yet another tirade from those persons who continually tout the need for "quality" vice "quantity" in our ranks, it is important to also remember that, when it comes to justifying our continued fee-free access to the literally BILLIONS of dollars worth of valuable frequency spectrum we are currently sitting on, "quantity" takes on a "quality" all its own.

Unfortunately, the remaining Luddites in our Service who bought into the FCC and ARRL’s fraudulent need to "raise the technical standards of Hams" back then are STILL trying their level best to hang onto that rapidly dying dream. This fact is clearly evident by all the passionate comments over such issues now being repeatedly expressed here and elsewhere.

Thankfully, NONE of their increasingly shrill rants are having the least bit of effect with the only US Government authority (The FCC) that really matters in all of this.

73,

Keith
KB1SF / VA3KSF

[wi7b]

Yes, ham radio is dead ;-) As opposed to 1960 when hams made up 0.14 percent of the U.S. population, we now make up only 0.22 percent (2008 estimated population) and with actual U.S. Census figures, only 0.24 percent in 2000. CLEARLY A DECLINE....LoL.

This NET DECLINE can be attributed to the poor mathematical skills on the part of the older hams who were licensed in a bygone era and who haven't come to terms with the weight of statistical analysis. I mean, they can't figure their own grocery bills.

Time to call for re-testing all hams licensed before 1960. Hi hi.

[KB1SF]

Yes, ham radio is dead ;-) As opposed to 1960 when hams made up 0.14 percent of the U.S. population, we now make up only 0.22 percent (2008 estimated population) and with actual U.S. Census figures, only 0.24 percent in 2000. CLEARLY A DECLINE....LoL.

This NET DECLINE can be attributed to the poor mathematical skills on the part of the older hams who were licensed in a bygone era and who haven't come to terms with the weight of statistical analysis. I mean, they can't figure their own grocery bills.

Time to call for re-testing all hams licensed before 1960. Hi hi.

Kenneth, you can "LOL" all you want, but the reality is that the number of Amateur Radio licenses in the United States peaked in 2003. And we HAVE been losing upwards of 6000-8000 licensees per year since that time. BOTH of these trends show absolutely NO sign of reversing themselves anytime soon.

And, as I said, because our FCC licenses are on a ten-year renewal cycle, that means the FCC's database will ALWAYS be 10 years out of date. So, we really have no idea how many OTHER hams have either died, or "voted with their feet" since 1998.

Unfortunately, the only real measure we have of THAT statistic is to listen to the activity (or, the lack thereof) on our bands. And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that, with few exceptions, our bands are not NEARLY as crowded these days as they were during previous sunspot minimums.

So you and others can certainly continue "coming to terms with the weight of statistical analysis" by myopically comparing the number of Hams to the US population as a whole since the 1960s. But, such exercises will always yield ""apples and oranges" conclusions because these comparisons don't take into consideration the (critically important!) fact that the average Ham in the United States wasn't anywhere NEAR age 60 back in 1960.

And, the last time I checked, immortality had yet to be invented.

Sadly, it would appear that, when you ALSO take into account the overriding statistics of our own individual mortality, ours HAS now become a slowly dying (literally!) Radio Service. And, sadly, those of us who haven't already died or "voted with our feet" by now have fewer and fewer years of life left on the planet.

Certainly, ever-aging "baby boomers" and "retreads" (people who used to be Hams (or always wanted to be Hams) who have now come (back) into the fold) may very well continue to sustain our Service for an indeterminate while.

However, unless things RADICALLY change, and our Service starts attracting significant numbers of YOUTHFUL newcomers, the day is not too far off when there simply won't be anyone left alive to talk to on our bands because we'll all be VERY dead!

73,

Keith
KB1SF / VA3KSF

[ZL1CDP]

I take it this is only the USA numbers and nowhere else?

Chris, ZL1CDP

[w6aws]

With the current interest in Ipod's, MP3's and cell phones that do more things than I can begin to describe, of course the youth are going to be a "hard sell"!

However, I have sat kids down in front of the radio and watched them light up when they talk to a station across the country or if were lucky in another country. Of course were not going to get a huge amount of recruits. But giving up and not trying is not the answer! The school our club associates with is building a K2, building a small transimitter for Foxhunting, and other related projects.

On the predicted "Death" of Amateur Radio, wait until we get well into this next cycle. I suspect the "dead" will come out of the woodwork in mass! :D

Andy W6AWS

[KB5DRJ]

:rolleyes:

David KB5DRJ

[KB1SF]

On the predicted "Death" of Amateur Radio, wait until we get well into this next cycle. I suspect the "dead" will come out of the woodwork in mass! :D

Andy W6AWS

Andy, I sincerely hope you're right. I've certainly been trying to do my part here as well.

In fact, we recently had cause for celebration when, a few weeks back, I helped license a 15 year old. Of course, his Granddad was helpful in getting him motivated to get his head in the books, but since he got his "ticket" he's been yakking up a storm on the local repeater. In fact, the old machine hasn't seen as much activity in years!

But you are absolutely correct....we are going to have to recruit them one at a time. My hope is that the FCC can also do its part in making our Service more attractive to youth quickly enough to be effective.

73,

Keith
KB1SF / VA3KSF