Analysis of the Ron Paul NH Breakdown.

[al2i]

Pretty fair article here. (http://www.reason.com/news/show/124295.html)

Quote[/b] ]In this case, though, the feedback was right. Paul's numbers spiked after he ran a simple ad slamming the government for invading Americans' privacy, but then the campaign moved on to media that stressed his army record, his pro-life views, and especially his yen for closing the border. The ads got slicker and slicker, and the numbers didn't move. The slickest ad, a Tancredoean cry against birthright citizenship and visas for terrorists, was a total flop.

This is exactly as I saw it, and the Paul numbers actually declined in New Hampshire after the campaign began the "slick" ads. The Paul campaign was all about the "freedom message", so as soon as the "message" was corrupted to fit the mainstream, it evaporated. I personally know supporters who dropped out as soon as they saw the border ad, because after complaining that other candidates were trying to scare us into giving up our civil liberties, the Paul campaign then paradoxically ran what felt like a mainstream scare ad.

[kc2orw]

I think most everyone has sworn this stuff off temporarily. We seem to be back to whether we should feed or shoot the poor...

[KG4JYD]

I would consider two things -

1- NH is a defense contractor state. Obviously RP won't do well there.

2- The RP HQ did slack on their job.

3- I have heard rumors that the HQ was not looking to win NH but focusing on other more important states. This is of course TBD.

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (KG4JYD @ Jan. 09 2008,15:08)]3- I have heard rumors that the HQ was not looking to win NH but focusing on other more important states. This is of course TBD.
Anytime a sentance starts with "I have heard rumors...", the rest of us cringe a little -- or at least that is rumored to be the case. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[W0MT]

Ron Paul is running a brilliant campaign. He has secretly told all of his supporters to vote for Obama. This way he is not the Republican front runner, which he would be if they actually voted for him in the primaries and caucuses. That means he is not the target of those who think they are winning. Then when the Republican convention is held, all of his supporters will suddenly rip off their shirts and ties to reveal that they are wearing their “Ron Paul for President” T-shirts. All of the rest of the Republicans will suddenly realize that they have made a gigantic mistake in supporting the likes of McCain, Romney, Huchabee, Giuliani, and Thompson. The convention hall will erupt in cheers for Ron Paul and he will be nominated as the party’s choice.

Then he will wake up at home in bed and remember that the convention is being held right at that moment. He will turn on the TV and watch reruns of Law And Order.

[kc2orw]

I have to clean my screen now Robert http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif
That was awesome http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[KG4JYD]

Quote[/b] (W0MT @ Jan. 09 2008,19:02)]He has secretly told all of his supporters to vote for Obama.
Don't quit your day job.... http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif

[W4DFW]

Quote[/b] (KG4JYD @ Jan. 09 2008,00:35)]Quote[/b] (W0MT @ Jan. 09 2008,19:02)]He has secretly told all of his supporters to vote for Obama.
Don't quit your day job.... http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif
Someone needs to tell that to Ron Paul. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[AE6IP]

That does seem to be the best analysis of Paul's failure in New Hampshire currently available.

But there's a much simpler explanation: Paul did poorly because all but the most naive voters understand that there's no there there.

New Hampshire exposed that the polls aren't wrong, that the support isn't there and not being counted, that the fund raising shark jumping doesn't work, and that the internet "grass roots" movement doesn't translate into action on the ground.

If Dr Paul was truly the fiscal conservative that he claims to be, he'd recognize his campaign as throwing money away, and give back the donations to his supporters.

[KG4JYD]

Quote[/b] (AE6IP @ Jan. 10 2008,03:14)]If Dr Paul was truly the fiscal conservative that he claims to be, he'd recognize his campaign as throwing money away, and give back the donations to his supporters.
You can't win if you don't even try.

[AE6IP]

Quote[/b] (KG4JYD @ Jan. 10 2008,10:10)]Quote[/b] (AE6IP @ Jan. 10 2008,03:14)]If Dr Paul was truly the fiscal conservative that he claims to be, he'd recognize his campaign as throwing money away, and give back the donations to his supporters.
You can't win if you don't even try.
Some things you don't have to try in order to know you'll lose.

I don't belong in the olympics, and Ron Paul doesn't belong in a presidential race.

The second is even more obvious than the first.