The very near future

[al2i]

I like to think of the World 10 to 15 years hence. I hope to be retired, but more importantly, I hope to live in peace.

Unfortunately, the greatest fascio-capitalist power in the World is in the throws of the greatest military buildup in history.

They can do it because they have had American productive infrastructure dismantled while the greatest American corporations build the best factories in the World in China. Bigger, better, Chinese.

Quote[/b] ]magine a force of millions of Chinese civilians armed with assault rifles, guided missiles, artillery, and the ability to possibly use it, all directed by the Chinese government. Such a force exists in China today in the form of the Chinese militia. Yet there is very little information on such a large well-armed force. For the last two decades the militia has fallen off the radar in both the Western media and in scholarly works

Interesting Source (http://www.sinodefence.com/)

[W1GUH]

I truly worry about this one. #And I'm also very perplexed. #I was having lunch with a very good, but also very conservative friend a few weeks ago, and I asked him if he was worried about the situation with China, our huge debt to them, how much we're buying from them, and the fact that they're using all that money in a very accelerated effort to modernize their military and make it very strong. #He shrugged off any worry by saying something like, "They're businessmen...they're not gonna do anything." #I pressed him a little by pointing out that they may be businessmen, but they're also Communist. #He said something like, "So what?"

Hmmmmm.....

The situation was a little "through the looking glass." #Here we had a liberal (me) very worried about a strong communist nation, and a conservative to whom China seems like our good buddy.

Is it really true that when someone becomes a "businessman", they are completely above reproach and are wonderful, caring people whom we should embrace as family? #That's what he seemed to imply.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

[KB1KIX]

Now... for those of you that think I'm a Neocon.... I respond with....

I agree!

However, this is what happens when we give away our most favored nation trade status with a nation that still has slaves and child labor (google search or CNN or even BBC or CBC - they've all reported on this issue).

It boggles my mind that we give them such status.

I also blame the American public. John Q Citizen.

We want to buy the cheapest of anything (in general) rather than buy American.

So, we all carry the blame, as much as our lovely elected officials.

If we start refusing to buy the goods made there, then that will bring down our spending.

But..... Wal Mart will go on - we're cheap!

Jonathan

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (W1GUH @ June 21 2007,08:50)]I truly worry about this one. #And I'm also very perplexed. #I was having lunch with a very good, but also very conservative friend a few weeks ago, and I asked him if he was worried about the situation with China, our huge debt to them, how much we're buying from them, and the fact that they're using all that money in a very accelerated effort to modernize their military and make it very strong. #He shrugged off any worry by saying something like, "They're businessmen...they're not gonna do anything." #I pressed him a little by pointing out that they may be businessmen, but they're also Communist. #He said something like, "So what?"

Hmmmmm.....

The situation was a little "through the looking glass." #Here we had a liberal (me) very worried about a strong communist nation, and a conservative to whom China seems like our good buddy.

Is it really true that when someone becomes a "businessman", they are completely above reproach and are wonderful, caring people whom we should embrace as family? #That's what he seemed to imply.

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif
China has always been an enigma rolled in a mystery, injected into a jelly doughnut. However, as huge and potentially menacing as China is, it is NOT a monolithic block. China has, much under the radar, developed a powerful middle class...a previously unheard of thing in Asia until recent times. (I believe Thailand may be the first Asian country with that distinction).
Middle class Chinese actually LIKE America....this may be the most powerful deterrent to the military juggernaut taking over. Most rank and file Chinese are TIRED of Communism and want something different.
Also under the radar has been the staggering growth of Christianity in China...mostly in the underground church movement, but becoming more mainstream. No longer a just a persecuted minority, many of these people are making policy now.
Interestingly, China now considers internal Muslim activism a serious problem....further destroying the myth of China as a monolithic war machine.
Under Ghengis Khan, Muslims were brought in as civil servants, and enjoyed high social status. Under the post-Khan Dynasties, however, the Muslims lost their exalted positions and were relegated to a few Muslim states on the Western frontier, where, for centuries they have lived quietly. Now, with encouragement or "inspiration" from other Muslims nations, the Chinese Muslims now want a piece of the action. This is actually quite frightening to the military regime in China....as well as being quite DISTRACTING from their previous world-domination goals.
China's rise in the modern world deserves close attention, but certainly not hand-wringing. Chinese economic might should not be looked upon as good or bad...it just IS...get used to it.

My 2 cents' worth.

eric

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (W1GUH @ June 21 2007,07:50)]I pressed him a little by pointing out that they may be businessmen, but they're also Communist. He said something like, "So what?"
If they were communist they would be of little interest.

From the time that early American settlers tried it at Plymouth Rock and starved, to when 60,000,000 Chinese starved to death under Mao, no communist economy has ever been a good one.

Here is another recreational chart I produced for my own amusement. I started the chart from a couple of years after Mao's death, when the government of China stabilized and economic reforms began.



http://www.davemcgraw.com/Images/Chart_ChinaAg.jpg

[W1GUH]

Thanks, Eric for your well written reason why it's not as big a worry as I thought it was.

[w4wtf]

China may indeed grow to be troublesome in thier region.


However, a direct threat to the US mainland they will not be for at least a half century or more. They lack the ability to wage war outside thier own borders, the logistics simply are not there. They have no naval sealift capability short of nationalizing commercial container ships, and we could pick those off with ease?

Air movement? Forget it.

In todays world, only one nation is capable of the logistics needed for long term, large scale, across the world, warfare, and that is the US.

At best they could get a bunch of troops here is a suprise move, but they could not support them and they would quickly be defeated.

[n2nh]

Quote[/b] (kl7aj @ June 21 2007,12:12)]China has, much under the radar, developed a powerful middle class...a previously unheard of thing in Asia until recent times. (I believe Thailand may be the first Asian country with that distinction).
Middle class Chinese actually LIKE America....this may be the most powerful deterrent to the military juggernaut taking over.
Well I hope that the Chinese government listens to them better than this administration listens to it's middle class. If they use the USA as an example, as soon as the middle class becomes an annoyance, they'll become the lower class again.

I hope you're right, but I fear it is just more fitting the scenario to the theory. Pretty much like WMDs.

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (kl7aj @ June 21 2007,08:12)]China has always been an enigma rolled in a mystery, injected into a jelly doughnut. However, as huge and potentially menacing as China is, it is NOT a monolithic block. China has, much under the radar, developed a powerful middle class...a previously unheard of thing in Asia until recent times. (I believe Thailand may be the first Asian country with that distinction).
Middle class Chinese actually LIKE America....this may be the most powerful deterrent to the military juggernaut taking over. Most rank and file Chinese are TIRED of Communism and want something different.
Also under the radar has been the staggering growth of Christianity in China...mostly in the underground church movement, but becoming more mainstream. No longer a just a persecuted minority, many of these people are making policy now.
Interestingly, China now considers internal Muslim activism a serious problem....further destroying the myth of China as a monolithic war machine.
Under Ghengis Khan, Muslims were brought in as civil servants, and enjoyed high social status. Under the post-Khan Dynasties, however, the Muslims lost their exalted positions and were relegated to a few Muslim states on the Western frontier, where, for centuries they have lived quietly. Now, with encouragement or "inspiration" from other Muslims nations, the Chinese Muslims now want a piece of the action. This is actually quite frightening to the military regime in China....as well as being quite DISTRACTING from their previous world-domination goals.
China's rise in the modern world deserves close attention, but certainly not hand-wringing. Chinese economic might should not be looked upon as good or bad...it just IS...get used to it.

My 2 cents' worth.

eric
China is highly diverse but from the massacres at Tiananmen Square to the breath-taking control of Internet information, I see no evidence that the Fascist Chinese State has lost its iron-fisted internal control -- or even that it is losing it.

You state that China is an enigma, but I see no great mystery. Vast power is accruing to a nation that has an iron-fisted leadership with the willingness to summarily imprison, execute and massacre when necessary.

An enigma will develop in your mind if you fog yourself with confused labels, like "communist", or "capitalist".

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (w4wtf @ June 21 2007,11:44)]However, a direct threat to the US mainland they will not be for at least a half century or more. They lack the ability to wage war outside thier own borders, the logistics simply are not there. They have no naval sealift capability short of nationalizing commercial container ships, and we could pick those off with ease?

Air movement? Forget it.

In todays world, only one nation is capable of the logistics needed for long term, large scale, across the world, warfare, and that is the US.

At best they could get a bunch of troops here is a suprise move, but they could not support them and they would quickly be defeated.
Unreal. I hope to show you your post in about 10 years or so. Germany was seen as a harmless, beaten nation in 1934, and it was -- by the end of 1944.

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (al2i @ June 21 2007,13:13)]Quote[/b] (w4wtf @ June 21 2007,11:44)]However, a direct threat to the US mainland they will not be for at least a half century or more. They lack the ability to wage war outside thier own borders, the logistics simply are not there. They have no naval sealift capability short of nationalizing commercial container ships, and we could pick those off with ease?

Air movement? Forget it.

In todays world, only one nation is capable of the logistics needed for long term, large scale, across the world, warfare, and that is the US.

At best they could get a bunch of troops here is a suprise move, but they could not support them and they would quickly be defeated.
Unreal. #I hope to show you your post in about 10 years or so. # #Germany was seen as a harmless, beaten nation in 1934, and it was -- by the end of 1944.
There's a difference between Germany and China, though. Even though the Aryan was a myth, the Germans did, and do, have a very high degree of ethnic homogeneity. For the most part, a German is a German. Not so in China. There are hundreds of different ethnic groups, despite Mao's (temporary) efforts to homogenize them. As much as I hate to say it, the Islamic dissention within China may be the best thing for the West...at least it will keep China occupied on a more immediate threat.

But, as you suggest...time will tell.

eric

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (kl7aj @ June 21 2007,13:23)]Quote[/b] (al2i @ June 21 2007,13:13)]Quote[/b] (w4wtf @ June 21 2007,11:44)]However, a direct threat to the US mainland they will not be for at least a half century or more. They lack the ability to wage war outside thier own borders, the logistics simply are not there. They have no naval sealift capability short of nationalizing commercial container ships, and we could pick those off with ease?

Air movement? Forget it.

In todays world, only one nation is capable of the logistics needed for long term, large scale, across the world, warfare, and that is the US.

At best they could get a bunch of troops here is a suprise move, but they could not support them and they would quickly be defeated.
Unreal. #I hope to show you your post in about 10 years or so. # #Germany was seen as a harmless, beaten nation in 1934, and it was -- by the end of 1944.
There's a difference between Germany and China, though. #Even though the Aryan was a myth, the Germans did, and do, have a very high degree of ethnic homogeneity. #For the most part, a German is a German. #Not so in China. #There are hundreds of different ethnic groups, despite Mao's (temporary) efforts to homogenize them. #As much as I hate to say it, the Islamic dissention within China may be the best thing for the West...at least it will keep China occupied on a more immediate threat.

But, as you suggest...time will tell.

eric
Which reminds me of a quote...I wish I could recall who said it:

"ALL wars are ethnic wars."

I think this is truer than any of us realize.

eric

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (n2nh @ June 21 2007,11:47)]Well I hope that the Chinese government listens to them better than this administration listens to it's middle class.
Really John, you are living in a dream.

Here is what happened when some students wanted limited Democratic reforms:

http://www.davemcgraw.com/Images/TiananmenMassacre.jpg


Here is a statue in Tienanmen Square today:

http://www.davemcgraw.com/Images/ChinaStatue.jpg

I guess the blood spilled by those brave reformers is pretty well forgotten.

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (kl7aj @ June 21 2007,12:26)]As much as I hate to say it, the Islamic dissention within China may be the best thing for the West...at least it will keep China occupied on a more immediate threat.
They are scarcely threatened by any measure we would normally use, but as with all dictatorships, they are paranoid as all heck.

[G0GQK]

I think it would be true to say that most people in the world have more fear of America than they do of China. Consider for instance, how many times in the last hundred years has China been involved in militaristic adventures ?
The worry for most people , if there is one, will be the slowing down of the production of oil. The world needs vast amounts of it and at some time in the future it will become very expensive and there is no doubt that this will be the catalyst for starting a war. China now has huge amounts of capital and is growing at a phenomenal rate and is buying all the minerals that it can. The west has been the industrial powerhouse in the last 200 years and the tide is now turning and the countries of the east are now becoming the industrial giants.

G0GQK

[AK7V]

They don't need the military - they'll just poison us and our pets. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

I try my best to avoid buying Chinese goods mainly because of their human rights record.
While "most people in the world" might fear America more than China, lots of people live in China and they certainly have China to fear most.
In fact, I'd wager that a random Chinese person has more to fear from his own government than even a random Iranian has to fear from the US.

Humanity in general has much to fear from a nation that kills political and cultural dissidents in mobile execution busses and then sells their organs.
Or one that blocks information (with the aid of US internet companies). And if you want to talk about global warming and fear for the environment, China's rise portends big changes...

One can hope that a growing middle class will cause more reforms and China will end up our good buddy.
That's where the "pour in more money" argument comes from.

[W1GUH]

I love the sentiment about not buying anything made in China, but how does one do that? It seems as if almost everything I buy these days says "Made in China." I just bought a new Motorola Cell Phone....Made in China. I'd bet that any hi-tech thing I've bought, with the exception of my radios, were Made in China. So how long does it take to find stuff we need....clothes....phones...and what not that's NOT made in China?

[W5HTW]

There are facts that dispute some of the things said here. They are researchable, if you care to look.

First, China CURRENTLY has approximately 10 nuclear armed ICBMs targeted at the United States mainland, and capable of reaching it. These missiles are at ready right now, loaded, fueled and capable. It is estimated that by 2020 they will have about 20 such missiles, and maybe more.

Secondly, China is spending massive amounts of money on its sea force, including nuclear submarines. China is not preparing for a land war where it would have to transport large numbers of foot soldiers to anyplace.

China still lacks a viable long range Air Force, but that, too, is in the works.

China continues to threaten to retake Taiwan forcefully. The US says it will not let that happen. China sees Taiwan as a rogue state. Interestingly, the US has diplomatic relations with China, but not with Taiwan, because we fear offending China, a far more powerful nation militarily as well as economically, than Taiwan.

The question would be, what would happen if China made that military move on Taiwan? Would we do as we say, and intervene? Such a situation would likely be conventional, not nuclear.

But we are returning to the Cold War (it is my contention it never went away anyway, except in words, and I can pretty well back that up.) Russia is become more of a closed society, and tensions are increasing. And Russia does have a rather sizable nuclear missile force, of missiles that can be retargeted in minutes. And Putin has, within the last three weeks, threatened to do exactly that, though he has threatened to target them at Western Europe.

Nuclear missiles from the USSR remain in places like the Ukraine. They, too, can be retargeted, though it takes longer, as they have been defueled.

When Soviet missiles were detargeted, American public was left to believe that meant they had been removed. Not at all. It meant the guidance software had been deleted. But the cables to reload it remain connected, the software is on central computers. They can be retargeted in 15 minutes.

What takes longer is they are often defueled and then refueled. That process takes take but it is not done to all missiles simultaneously, so there are always many that can be sent on their merry way rather quickly.

All of this information can be found at reliable sources on the web. In addition, economic data about China is readily available. The partnership between WalMart and China is actually rather frightening. I remember 20 years ago when Walmart had signs up "buy American, American made products." Those signs are long gone! Walmart built itself into the biggest store in the world. It has what could best be described as a single goal - to be the ONLY store in the world, or at least in America. It is very succcesful at running competitors out of the marketplace. That is happening as I write this, just a few miles from me, as one supermarket has closed, while Walmart builds a Super Center, and two others are considering closing. Two garages in the area are also talking about closing (I know the owners) as is one tire repair shop. That IS the Walmart effect.

And it is done now in partnership with China.

We are losing it! Mexico is taking over our labor and political force, and Walmart and China our economic strength.

However, it is likely to be far too late to stop it!

Ed

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (W1GUH @ June 21 2007,17:30)]I love the sentiment about not buying anything made in China, but how does one do that? It seems as if almost everything I buy these days says "Made in China." I just bought a new Motorola Cell Phone....Made in China. I'd bet that any hi-tech thing I've bought, with the exception of my radios, were Made in China. So how long does it take to find stuff we need....clothes....phones...and what not that's NOT made in China?
It has become extremely time-prohibitive to find the remaining goods NOT manufactured in China. Believe me, I have tried, but it has become just too difficult most of the time.

[w4wtf]

Quote[/b] (al2i @ June 21 2007,13:13)]Quote[/b] (w4wtf @ June 21 2007,11:44)]However, a direct threat to the US mainland they will not be for at least a half century or more. They lack the ability to wage war outside thier own borders, the logistics simply are not there. They have no naval sealift capability short of nationalizing commercial container ships, and we could pick those off with ease?

Air movement? Forget it.

In todays world, only one nation is capable of the logistics needed for long term, large scale, across the world, warfare, and that is the US.

At best they could get a bunch of troops here is a suprise move, but they could not support them and they would quickly be defeated.
Unreal. #I hope to show you your post in about 10 years or so. # #Germany was seen as a harmless, beaten nation in 1934, and it was -- by the end of 1944.
Even after those 10 years, Germany was only a threat to its neighbors, and could in now way threaten us here with invasion. That pretty much keeps in line with what I said about China...they will be a problem in thier region, but not an invasion threat to us.

A nuke threat yes, but they are now. An invasion threat to the continental US, no.

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (w4wtf @ June 21 2007,18:32)]Quote[/b] (al2i @ June 21 2007,13:13)]Quote[/b] (w4wtf @ June 21 2007,11:44)]However, a direct threat to the US mainland they will not be for at least a half century or more. They lack the ability to wage war outside thier own borders, the logistics simply are not there. They have no naval sealift capability short of nationalizing commercial container ships, and we could pick those off with ease?

Air movement? Forget it.

In todays world, only one nation is capable of the logistics needed for long term, large scale, across the world, warfare, and that is the US.

At best they could get a bunch of troops here is a suprise move, but they could not support them and they would quickly be defeated.
Unreal. I hope to show you your post in about 10 years or so. Germany was seen as a harmless, beaten nation in 1934, and it was -- by the end of 1944.
Even after those 10 years, Germany was only a threat to its neighbors, and could in now way threaten us here with invasion. That pretty much keeps in line with what I said about China...they will be a problem in thier region, but not an invasion threat to us.

A nuke threat yes, but they are now. An invasion threat to the continental US, no.
I agree that the prospect of anyone "invading" the USA with classic land forces is pretty far-fetched. They may make it as far as Tulelake, CA, but no further...

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/cool.gif




http://www.the-office.com/bushkerry/manchuriancandidate.jpg

[AK7V]

Quote[/b] (W1GUH @ June 21 2007,18:30)]I love the sentiment about not buying anything made in China, but how does one do that? It seems as if almost everything I buy these days says "Made in China." I just bought a new Motorola Cell Phone....Made in China. I'd bet that any hi-tech thing I've bought, with the exception of my radios, were Made in China. So how long does it take to find stuff we need....clothes....phones...and what not that's NOT made in China?
It is tough, and I'm far from 100% successful, but one easy thing you can try to do is buy locally grown fruits and vegetables. I was surprised when I found that bulbs of garlic were imported from China, especially when so much is grown in California. So I avoid the Chinese produce where I can.

As far as electronics go, I don't buy that stuff. My cell phone is from Finland, built in Eastern Europe, and it still works fine. I haven't bought any electronics in a long time. I guess I'll have to think about getting a new TV in a few years because of digital, but everything else I have still works.

Maybe we should just buy less.

[W1GUH]

Quote[/b] (W5HTW @ June 20 2007,20:30)]There are facts that dispute some of the things said here. They are researchable, if you care to look.

First, China CURRENTLY has approximately 10 nuclear armed ICBMs targeted at the United States mainland, and capable of reaching it. These missiles are at ready right now, loaded, fueled and capable. It is estimated that by 2020 they will have about 20 such missiles, and maybe more.

Secondly, China is spending massive amounts of money on its sea force, including nuclear submarines. China is not preparing for a land war where it would have to transport large numbers of foot soldiers to anyplace.

China still lacks a viable long range Air Force, but that, too, is in the works.

China continues to threaten to retake Taiwan forcefully. The US says it will not let that happen. China sees Taiwan as a rogue state. Interestingly, the US has diplomatic relations with China, but not with Taiwan, because we fear offending China, a far more powerful nation militarily as well as economically, than Taiwan.

The question would be, what would happen if China made that military move on Taiwan? Would we do as we say, and intervene? Such a situation would likely be conventional, not nuclear.

But we are returning to the Cold War (it is my contention it never went away anyway, except in words, and I can pretty well back that up.) Russia is become more of a closed society, and tensions are increasing. And Russia does have a rather sizable nuclear missile force, of missiles that can be retargeted in minutes. And Putin has, within the last three weeks, threatened to do exactly that, though he has threatened to target them at Western Europe.

Nuclear missiles from the USSR remain in places like the Ukraine. They, too, can be retargeted, though it takes longer, as they have been defueled.

When Soviet missiles were detargeted, American public was left to believe that meant they had been removed. Not at all. It meant the guidance software had been deleted. But the cables to reload it remain connected, the software is on central computers. They can be retargeted in 15 minutes.

What takes longer is they are often defueled and then refueled. That process takes take but it is not done to all missiles simultaneously, so there are always many that can be sent on their merry way rather quickly.

All of this information can be found at reliable sources on the web. In addition, economic data about China is readily available. The partnership between WalMart and China is actually rather frightening. I remember 20 years ago when Walmart had signs up "buy American, American made products." Those signs are long gone! Walmart built itself into the biggest store in the world. It has what could best be described as a single goal - to be the ONLY store in the world, or at least in America. It is very succcesful at running competitors out of the marketplace. That is happening as I write this, just a few miles from me, as one supermarket has closed, while Walmart builds a Super Center, and two others are considering closing. Two garages in the area are also talking about closing (I know the owners) as is one tire repair shop. That IS the Walmart effect.

And it is done now in partnership with China.

We are losing it! Mexico is taking over our labor and political force, and Walmart and China our economic strength.

However, it is likely to be far too late to stop it!

Ed
Ed, what you said is my take almost to the letter. That's why I'm worried.

About Russia...

When the Soviet Union collapsed, I was surprised, to say the least, about how fast our government embraced them. While I thought that we should be cautious and wait a while to really believe that the threat is gone...Washington seemed not to think that there was any more threat.

And the situation with China, especially their nuclear missile capability, seems to be even more dangerous, but appears to be not heeded at all.

The whole thing is a big WTF?

[KG4CGC]

Quote[/b] (KB1KIX @ June 21 2007,12:05)]Now... for those of you that think I'm a Neocon.... I respond with....

I agree!

However, this is what happens when we give away our most favored nation trade status with a nation that still has slaves and child labor (google search or CNN or even BBC or CBC - they've all reported on this issue).

It boggles my mind that we give them such status.

I also blame the American public. John Q Citizen.

We want to buy the cheapest of anything (in general) rather than buy American.

So, we all carry the blame, as much as our lovely elected officials.

If we start refusing to buy the goods made there, then that will bring down our spending.

But..... Wal Mart will go on - we're cheap!

Jonathan
No No No! We wanted to buy American but were offered the cheap. We were told it was better and would save us money.
We complained but had Chinese goods rammed down our throats despite what we said.
At the same time, our wages stagnated.

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (W1GUH @ June 21 2007,18:30)]I love the sentiment about not buying anything made in China, but how does one do that? #It seems as if almost everything I buy these days says "Made in China." #I just bought a new Motorola Cell Phone....Made in China. #I'd bet that any hi-tech thing I've bought, with the exception of my radios, were Made in China. #So how long does it take to find stuff we need....clothes....phones...and what not that's NOT made in China?
I have always wondered why people get all over the human rights thing when it comes to buying from China and yet have no qualms whatsoever about Japan. Everyone should read The Rape of Nanking....a chilling horrifying expose of what Japan did to China during WW2. The horrendous atrocities were never officially acknowledged by Japan, much less apologized for. Sure...they aren't torturing anyone NOW...but a lot has been swept under the carpet, and never accounted for.

Let's just not be so hypocritical

eric

[kl7aj]

Trade Sanctions (http://www.againstbombing.org/sirico2.htm)

Here's one of the most level-headed analyses of trade sanctions I've seen lately.

Certainly not the last word, but it IS very much in line with what my many friends in China tell me.

eric

[AE6IP]

This thread shows a very superficial understanding of China. I recommend A brief history of China for anyone who cares to try to understand the mainland.

China is currently in the midst of a very significant restructuring, but then China has periodically been in the midst of very significant restructuring for more than three thousand years.

While the 20th century was definitely "America's century", the age of that empire is drawing to a close and the 21st century gives every indication of becoming China's century.

Unless any of a dozen things brewing under the surface in China go wrong: Energy issues, wealth disparity, several million single men without women in their cohort, and severe droughts.

In any event, history shows the Chinese to prefer slow growth over empire building. They respond to threats but tend not to be aggressors. (Yes, even in 'nam and Korea, they were, from their view, responding, not attacking.)

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (AE6IP @ June 22 2007,11:00)]This thread shows a very superficial understanding of China. I recommend A brief history of China for anyone who cares to try to understand the mainland.

China is currently in the midst of a very significant restructuring, but then China has periodically been in the midst of very significant restructuring for more than three thousand years.

While the 20th century was definitely "America's century", the age of that empire is drawing to a close and the 21st century gives every indication of becoming China's century.

Unless any of a dozen things brewing under the surface in China go wrong: Energy issues, wealth disparity, several million single men without women in their cohort, and severe droughts.

In any event, history shows the Chinese to prefer slow growth over empire building. They respond to threats but tend not to be aggressors. (Yes, even in 'nam and Korea, they were, from their view, responding, not attacking.)
I think there are a few reasons for this. For the most part, we've been able to ignore China. Oh, once in a while someting like Tiananmen Square comes up and puts China on the radar for a while, and then goes away. Most of us have missed the fact that China has had a 10% GDP increase EVERY YEAR for the past two decades....and now we're SURPRISED that it's an economic power to contend with.
In many ways, I was fortunate to have been raised in Silicon Valley. We had a LARGE Chinese presence there, even in the early 60's. China and Chinese people have always been part of my consciousness. While my "normal" American peers were running up to Haight-Ashbury to become hippies, my Chinese classmates had their collective noses to the grindstone. I knew, even in my clueless high school years, that I was going to get my academic clock cleaned if I didn't do likewise. (I still got my clock cleaned...but not as thoroughly as it could have been!)
We have no business criticising the Chinese for doing what we've been supposed to be doing all along.
The Chinese understand that an economy is created by "making things." They somehow managed to glean this morsel of information even through the Communist era. Our own politicians haven't a clue what makes an economy tick, any more. Guess what....the Chinese government is officially recognizing private property rights. China has a long way to go, but they're LEARNING.

We're going backwards over here. Who's fault is that? Certainly not the Chinese!

eric

[al2i]

Quote[/b] (kl7aj @ June 22 2007,11:03)]The Chinese understand that an economy is created by "making things." They somehow managed to glean this morsel of information even through the Communist era. Our own politicians haven't a clue what makes an economy tick, any more. Guess what....the Chinese government is officially recognizing private property rights. China has a long way to go, but they're LEARNING.
And we're forgetting.

I had the opportunity last week to talk to a colleague who has been literally all over the World setting up telecom for ConocoPhillips. He had many interesting tales of exotic cultures, some delightful and some not, but when I asked him what he thought was the best country in the World was he was quick to say "China".

His response threw me a bit and I pressed him to justify his appraisal. He was able to comparison-contrast China at considerable length with both what I know of the USA, and what he had run into elsewhere around the globe. In every way, from personal comfort to personal safety to entertainment and business opportunities, China was right up there. Apparently, in his view at least, the USA is still tops for its political and personal freedom, but is definitely down the list when it comes to business opportunities and personal safety.

It is only one man's opinion, but his is an opinion I do not take lightly.

[AK7V]

There are a ton of extremely poor people in China far away from ConocoPhillips' telecom equipment, most likely. Their existance should have some weight in the "best country" scale.

He's probably talking "best" from an adult American man's perspective, with some money. I don't think it's the best if you're some 10 year old girl putting together tennis shoes 15 hours a day. Or sick and living in the remote countryside.

If you're in the right family, Saudi Arabia can be the best country in the world.