No Code Test: Your Prediction.

[ky5u]

I know this is like herding cats, but see if you can put your call sign down with your one to two sentence official prediction for the result of dropping the code test. I am going to transcribe to a file and try to post it again on QRZ in 3 years.

If you want to argue or comment, please do, but please be sure your quotable prediction is set apart so I can see it. Mine is:


AG4YO- In 3 years the amount of lawlessness on Ham Radio will double and there will be a doubling of on the air squabbles. There will be moves to curtail CW spectrum and dumb down the written tests further.

[K7JEM]

K7JEM: No major changes. There will be new lids, and old lids. In 3 years, most people won't remember there was such a big fight.

[kn4ds]

KE4UWL: Nothing really changes. By 2010, there'll still be old timers pointing to LIDS and saying "see, we told you it would be this way."

[n8yx]

Overheard on 20M some time in the future:

"Radio Canada: Code-Free (for your protection) for ... years!"

[KD6NIG]

(deleted)

[N8CPA]

I need to see the ripple after the pebble actually hits the water before I predict the wave. So, I predict I'll predict my prediction in six months.

[W4BD]

W4BD Well I think that all this BS is a BIG TODO ABOUT NOTHING!!! The OF's are going to be CANTANKEROUS about anything to do with the NCG's or NCE's just like they are about us NCT's, SCG's and SCE's now. Give it a few years and they will be fussing about something else.

73's

[ky5u]

Follows directions well.

Quote[/b] ]KD6NIG: I think the liddish behavior on both sides will cease within a year, and LID behavior won't increase anymore than the percentage of new people. I think there will be a major increase in radio sales, followed by a disinterested period and a glut of HF gear on the market within 6 months to a year.

OK??

[KA4DPO]

I think amateur radio will become a lot like the Citizens Band in that there will be unlicensed opeartors, a lot of QRM some intentional most from ignorance, and a large cadre of appliance operators who will be unabel to respond to any true emrgency.

Most important of all is that I don't see any of the incomming amateurs contributing anything to the radio art or science.....Period.

[AE6IP]

AE6IP: A brief uptick in upgrades followed by a return to the current pattern of declining numbers with no noticable change in on-air behavior.

[ai4ep]

Amateur radio #( as we know it today, January 29, 2007 ) will change dramaticially #for the worse within the next 3 years. Mostly for the bad, with an increase in LID operation, fragrant mis use of the basic rules and regulations, and consistent arguing / threats / action against another fellow licensed ham radio operator. #The few legimitate legal operators will be consistently harassed by the illegal operators, who are both licensed and non - licensed. The harassment will occur on most any frequency at most any time . No this wont be from " cb operators ", this will be from men and women whose sole INTENT is to agitate, harass and intimidate other operators. #They are out there already, some are already active in attempts to jam nets and what communications they can with basic radios-- later they can and will purchase amplifiers to stir up MORE animosity that the basic radio will not allow them to do.

The FCC will do little or nothing to stop / slow down this kind of operation, based entirely on their own actions of the past. Snails will be able to out run the FCC in its enforcement practices, for the individual employees just do not care, only willing to do the least amount of work / effort necessary to draw a weekly paycheck. They will act like typical U S GOVERNMENT employees . They have job security whether they actually DO any thing or not, so why put forth the effort to " clean up the airwaves " ?

All in all, the amateur radio train is on a track with no good ending for any one, now in the immediate or far future.
---------------------------------
now for the other side
---------------------------------
Amateur radio will be better than ever conceived by even the most informed optimist available.

Every one will get along greatly, few jammmers or agitators out there, every one eager to communicate by what ever legal means available with their fellow friends on the legal frequencies. New and used equipment sales will skyrocket, and quality from the manufacturers will be setting new standards in the manufacturing line standards...few ( if any ) pieces of equipment will break ( unless violently mis - used ) even past the normal warranty time. The use of the CW mode will skyrocket, since the requirement is gone, and folks will choose that mode over any other for basic personal communications. Even mobile use of CW will increase, despite the challenge of using it while driving a vehicle. Folks willingly sell their cellular telephones to get in on a reliable means of communication while driving ( amateur radio ).

Folks willingly do not break the rules, even the most often broken ones. The FCC will not be needed for enforcement issues, as amateurs will enforce the rules to the letter without the need for the U S GOVERNMENT to intervene. Comraderie will be at an all time high, with clubs having record high attendances, club meetings and activities will be nearly nightly, with coliseums and large halls being used for the gatherings. Hamfests will occur for weeks at a time, several times per year, and almost in every county of every USA state.

The FCC will allow amateurs MORE frequencies to communicate on, shoving businesses aside in favor of the strong amateur movement. CELLULAR companies, with their lousy record of " dropped calls " will lose some of their frequencies ( thanks to the FCC ) to the new group of amateurs who are here to stay.

Amateur radio is here to stay.

[KD5NCO]

Charlie

When you post these results in 3 years, a total of 10 years will have past since I first "Subscribed" or "Joined" QRZed.

I predict that the tens of thousands of name calling, flaming hatred, verbal bitch slaps, and all the angst will still rage on, here in these forums. I bet this code / no code debate/argument will still rage on.

But in Amateur Radio, where it counts, on the air... I think nothing much will change. There will be new space cadets, LIDs and arrogant selfish butt-head, laggards, and drama queens..... However, there will be a MAJORITY of selfless, nice, willing to help and very enthusiastic Amateurs....just like there is today and was 30~50 years ago.

Because of these forums, and the ill will that is conveyed, I predict we will never get near 1,000,000 licenses probably toping out around 750,000 if we even gain that much momentum.

I say in the grand scheme of the ARS, removing Element 1 will be no better or worse then incentive licensing was or is.

There is a brief opportunity with the new comers and OM for axes to be sheathed, anger to be forgotten, and fraternal camaraderie and true friendship to take over.

Unfortunately the internet and these forums here, eham, and elsewhere will work to undermine these efforts and we in in the ARS, like most of America, will continue our downward spiral to a morally bankrupt society.

[AC0H]

There will be a decided upscaling of lidination. There will be a move to steal CW spectrum (you think this is bad, just wait for that one). NTI will have posted it's first FCC petition to eliminate ALL testing.

[kc7jty]

Quote[/b] (AG4YO @ Jan. 29 2007,09:29)]There will be moves to curtail CW spectrum
I like this one...Yaaay!

Like I already said...we are going to redefine the hobby.

Embrace it Charlie.

[al2i]

Well this is not hard to call, just look at existing trends. My predictions:

Quote[/b] ]Prediction 1: Courtesy and respect will continue to deteriorate both on-air and off as we have already seen. The OM and the novice ops will both have less respect for each other and the bands we share.

Prediction 2: The real battles, with deliberate QRM, etc., will start after computer-operated CW starts chasing DX in the bottom of the bands. (I don't know how long it will take before this happens.)

Edited to make it easy for OM Charlie. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/cool.gif

[K3UD]

Quote[/b] (AE6IP @ Jan. 29 2007,12:42)]AE6IP: A brief uptick in upgrades followed by a return to the current pattern of declining numbers with no noticable change in on-air behavior.

We will see an almost immediate uptick in upgrades and it will last for about 1-3 years as it did from 2000-2003. After mid 2003 the overall license numbers started to drop and have been dropping since then.

I predict another downward trend starting in 2009 as well as downward trends in the Technicians and General class (the Novice and Advanced will have also dropped quite a bit by then) and the only class that will continue to grow will be the Extra, much as it does today. It is possible that the entry level license will be the General. It is also possible that we could see a merger of all licensees into a Class A and Class B (two license structure).

The written exam will become easier as the movement to get more hams into the fold will gains more momentum and there WILL be calls to eliminate the present written tests and reduce it to a simple safety, rules and regs, and a small smattering of operating procedures and possibly a few questions in technical areas like how to build a dipole etc.

Charlie can archive all of this and it will be interesting to see how it all turned out.

73
George
K3UD

[N2RJ]

Quote[/b] (kc7jty @ Jan. 29 2007,13:16)]Quote[/b] (AG4YO @ Jan. 29 2007,09:29)]There will be moves to curtail CW spectrum
I like this one...Yaaay!

Like I already said...we are going to redefine the hobby.

Embrace it Charlie.
10-4 good buddy.

[ky5u]

Pay attention please, K?

Your Call followed by Two sentences summarizing your view. It is not fair for me to try to characterize your opinion for you in 2 lines. You must do it yourself.

Thanks amigos!

[KB9YFI]

Numbers will jump right away, the number of new HF ops will taper off after 6 months but will still stay higher than normal. By 12 months or 18 months at the latest the number will be back to where it was before the code was laid to rest and the number of new hams will continue to dip as a percentag of new hams/new people.

CW will slowly die with the OF's. It's a good mode for operating QRP but the digital modes will be better. The digital modes will continue to become more popular as more off-the shelf interfaces come out like the Buxcomm unit. The new surge of hams will go for that part of the spectrum. The OF's will retreat into the CW-only bands.

Eventually the OF's will die out and CW will largely go with them. Yeah, there are younger CW OP's but not enough of them. The CW bands will be dead and the Digital bands will be hopping. Little by little, year by year digital will be given slices of that bandwidth as necessary by the FCC/ARRL bandplans.

Somewhere, eventually the distinction between Tech/General will mean nothing -especially as the VHF/UHF bands get nibbled away to nothing now that so many have left for HF. The use of VHF/UHF was artifically high because the NCT's had no other place to go but away. Without them there more often the VHF/UHF spectrum will be auctioned off. 6M/10M will be repeaterland like 2M/440 used to be. Perhaps there will be a few tiny slices left of 2M/440 to play with -probably chanelized.

Eventually there will be one license. The test will stay, but it will be almost entirely safety oriented and make-work -no more make-work than the old CW test though. Just a formality -but one that doesn't discriminate against people who have goofy hearing or other aural/neural issues.

The CB-ers are going to pretty much stay where they are. They are unregulated in any way and don't want to worry about having a call that can be traced back to them. They will live in the free-bands. Those that want to behave more-or-less will stay on the official ham bands and not want their license pulled.

It won't be that bad. Lots of gnashing of the teeth and old men who's whole lives, whole personal identities revolve around a silly test they took 40 years ago. It hurts them. They see how silly they are acting.

Those same people will lash out at me and call me all sorts of names for posting this truth. It's expected. The tree will be known by its fruit.

[K0RGR]

I predict that after getting a sour taste from SSB operations, a high percentage of new Generals will discover the digital modes. This will result in a movement to take back some of the frequencies wasted on SSB.

[ky5u]

Thanks RGR!

[KI6GWS]

.. -.. --- -. - - .... .. -. -.- - .... .. -. --. ... .-- .. .-.. .-.. -.-. .... .- -. --. . .- .-.. .-.. - .... .- - -- ..- -.-. .... .-.-.-

--... ...-- -.. . -.- .. -.... --. .-- ... http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wow.gif

[KD5NCO]

Sorry

You are correct, trying to wade through all our attitude and verbosity is not fair to what you want to do

KD5NCO- In 3 years the amount of lawlessness on Ham Radio will be about the same and there will be about the same amount of on the air squabbles. There will be no successful moves to curtail CW spectrum and change the written tests to reflect current United States Law.

[n0nwo]

n0nwo - Lost of new generals and extra for a couple of years making lots of new mistakes, but the OT's will show them the ropes and things will settle back down.

[ab9lz]

An ARS news headline several years from now will read, "Amateur Radio Operator KC7JTY fatally shot in a Kmart parking lot in an argument over his use of an echo mike equipped with a roger beep while telling dirty jokes on channel 157 (within the old 20 meter phone band)"

[N2RJ]

AB2MH - in the years to come, the numbers will once again be "on the decline" (in the eyes of those who can benefit from more numbers), and someone will think of something that is "keeping back" "otherwise qualified individuals." It's hard to say which written test will go away or be reduced, but I am betting that all written tests will be reduced to just one, eventually, that deals only with safety and regulations. Meanwhile, HF will get a little more crowded, and there will be quite a few attempts to either get NCT's voice HF privileges or to get rid of the CW only spectrum. The biggest push will be from the WinLink and Hinternet crowd.

[K3UD]

Charlie,
here is the short version

Immediate upgrades, Drop off over 2-3 years years then a stagnation. Numbers drop after 3 years. New hams don't offset. Written exam becomes easier. Only the Extra grows. Two class license system.

73
George
K3UD

[KB3LIX]

Three years from now:
The sunspot cycle will be on the upswing, and there will be no time or desire to bicker on the air. Available air time will be spent working DX or whatever strikes your fancy. Licensee counts will increase somewhat, offset by the inevitable SK's.
All in all, a tempest in a Teapot.

[W0LC]

The way the Feds move on anything, I don't see any change of any real consequence in 3 years. #Outside of that, i.e. further out, I do see changes...

[KD6NIG]

Quote[/b] (AG4YO @ Jan. 29 2007,10:29)]Follows directions well.

Quote[/b] ]KD6NIG: #I think the liddish behavior on both sides will cease within a year, and LID behavior won't increase anymore than the percentage of new people. I think there will be a major increase in radio sales, followed by a disinterested period and a glut of HF gear on the market within 6 months to a year.

OK??
Feel free to exclude my comments from your list then.

Nevermind, I'll delete them myself.

[W7WV]

Well I used to do the CW testing for my club as a VE.
So my prediction will be that I guess I will be out of work??

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (AG4YO @ Jan. 29 2007,09:29)]I know this is like herding cats, but see if you can put your call sign down with your one to two sentence official prediction for the result of dropping the code test. I am going to transcribe to a file and try to post it again on QRZ in 3 years.

If you want to argue or comment, please do, but please be sure your quotable prediction is set apart so I can see it. #Mine is:


AG4YO- In 3 years the amount of lawlessness on Ham Radio will double and there will be a doubling of on the air squabbles. There will be moves to curtail CW spectrum and dumb down the written tests further.
KL7AJ: The effect will be non-existent. CW will be as prevalent as ever on the bands.

eric

[N8CPA]

Quote[/b] (W7WV @ Jan. 29 2007,17:17)]Well I used to do the CW testing for my club as a VE.
So my prediction will be that I guess I will be out of work??
I got an inquiry from the Great Lakes Divison director. He was trying to recruit VE teams for a field test. It appears the League is trying to put together an in person CW certification program.

[n0ov]

More folks on the air, finding out there is a lot more to do than kerchunk a repeater.

More folks excited about making world wide contects, until the new wears off and they actually want to have a coversation vs a signal report.

Then things will get back to normal.

[ai4ep]

...so my first response was a tad bit too long ( page 1 of thie thread )...well, I aint no tv weatherman, I dont make predictions that well.

Predictions are like opinions, which are like, well...you know what I mean.

Chalrie is just going to save this thread and throw it back at us in 3 years......that ham from Idaho said this, and that dude from Alabammy said that, and the dued from the outskirts of some other city said nothing real nice.. This aint nothing no different from any other thread , where LEROY puts up a box with the words that FREDDY said that he disagrees with, and LARRY jumping in with his 2 cents worth ( and wanting change back ). ...nuthin but a time - induced piece of arguing .

Some one should ge back in the archives of qrz and dig out a smilar thread of " what would occur right after the C W requirement gets dropped " and dig all that junk out for the rest of us to read at our leisure...no wait, that would require work and effort for some one to do ( can't have that ) .

We all KNOW beyond a reasonable doubt that HAM radio ( wont glorify it with the correct word of "amateur " ) is going down hill...there already are more JAMMERS of a net than there used to be, more events of cursing those 7 words GEORGE CARLIN said we cant say , more rule s being broke since mid-December 1006 than ever before...we all know it all is going " down the tubes " with your own actions { check out 14.275 as a reference }......good bye to the " good ol' days " !!! http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif

[W4HAY]

I could care less what happens in the phone portions -- as long as they don't screw things up when hurricanes ravage the Gulf and Eastern seaboard.

As for CW, a few of the newbies are going learn it -- because they want to, and take pride in their accomplishments, not because they had to -- and strive to be 1st class ops. The pending increase in solar flux will give this a boost.

Many of us OFs, remembering the thrill of our first contacts, will welcome them into the fold and help them along. Many others will hang out here instead of on the air, and bitch about the continuing decline in civility (augmented by the impending '08 elections).

[W0LC]

To be honest, the "good old days" with everything is gone...

Our world isn't the one many of us grew up in unfortunately. It is filled with a whole lot more hate and anger then sometimes we realize. I see a whole lot of it on here as well.

NCT's calling anyone that passed a code element, OT's, OF's, elitests, etc. and vice versa, lazy, good for nothing.

I didn't make the rules when I got licensed, I just went through what was required. As the newer ops come onto the scene, I suspect they will go through whatever testing is in place, good or bad.

The attitudes is what is killing this hobby on the bands with the rhetoric and slurs I hear on 75, 20, 2, etc.

Unless there is some return to the "good old days" when respect was common and rule enforcement was in place, handing out an unearned license or having one that went through countless wickets won't matter.

The nonsense will continue, the violation of Part 97 will continue and the frustration will continue to be with us.

Bright future? It's up to you guys trolling and flamming to make the changes, not the rest of us. We enjoy the hobby the best we can amongst you.

It ain't fun swimming in toxic water.

[N8CPA]

"Some one should ge back in the archives of qrz and dig out a smilar thread of " what would occur right after the C W requirement gets dropped " and dig all that junk out for the rest of us to read at our leisure...no wait, that would require work and effort for some one to do ( can't have that )."

I don't know how to that. It's too hard to learn how to do that. I don't have time to learn it. That stuff is no longer relevant. It's passe. It's history. And websites about other radio services don't require it.

You only want me to do that because you had to!

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[Ka0zjo]

Ka0zjo: Uniden and Ranger R&D is developing low price point 160-10 radios. Filtering will not be an option.

[W4MAJ]

W4MAJ: There will be little change in Amateur radio in the next three years for three reasons:

1. The written exams will continue to be the gateway into this activity.

2. Amateur radio is an activity someone is introduced to.

3. No one is going to purchase a transmitter and erect an antenna for the sole purpose of producing QRM.

As a bi-product of new hams on HF, don't be surprised if there is a renewed interest in CW. Peer pressure is an interesting thing.

[W0LC]

Quote[/b] (W4MAJ @ Jan. 29 2007,15:31)]W4MAJ: There will be little change in Amateur radio in the next three years for three reasons:

1. The written exams will continue to be the gateway into this activity.

2. Amateur radio is an activity someone is introduced to.

3. No one is going to purchase a transmitter and erect an antenna for the sole purpose of producing QRM.

As a bi-product of new hams on HF, don't be surprised if there is a renewed interest in CW. Peer pressure is an interesting thing.
Man, I wish I could believe Point No.3. I seem to hear some individuals on the air that seem to do just that....and frequently, I have to ask.

Why get licensed, spend the money and then act like that....how can that be enjoyable?

As to renewed interest in CW. If band conditions stay they way they have been, being on voice will be good if you want to chat stateside. Otherwise, CW will get you some DX. I do hope prop does pick up on 15 and 10 again. I miss working those bands.

[KE5CAX]

KE5CAX - in 3 years we will be no worse or better than we are now. this will be accepted and we will adapt and move on. the numbers of licensees will increase and then level off and begin dropping again.

Ed

[KA2P]

KA2P: A moderate swell of upgrades to General and Extra with a small but noticeable increase in phone/data traffic. A flurry of "How-To-HF" articles in QST/CQ will appear to assuage the fears of no-code upgraders and assure them that "great band conditions are just ahead."

[KE5FRF]

Quote[/b] (al2i @ Jan. 29 2007,13:26)]Prediction 2: The real battles, with deliberate QRM, etc., will start after computer-operated CW starts chasing DX in the bottom of the bands. (I don't know how long it will take before this happens.)[/quote]
First, before I make my own prediction, this one I just read from Dave has some potential insight into a likely future problem. I've already heard lots of Techs talking about computer operated CW. While I don't hold a grudge to someone operating computer CW, I do think some pile-up situations will be a bloody mess because they won't be able to HEAR what is going on with their speaker output tied to the computer, thus pure chaos. I'm not against computer CW in theory, but it is my hope that people make an attempt to learn it before operating it with computers.

OK
KE5FRF:
Prediction #1: The Technician license will soon become nearly nonexistent as far as active licensees goes, and the General license will become the most "populous". There will be active lobbying to do away with the Extra license by people who can't pass the test, which will be quite a lot.

Prediction #2: The phone band will be a sesspool. Not enough elbow room. Indeed, there will be lobbying and eventual action to reduce and nearly eliminate the CW and digital bands to accomodate. CW use on "any phone band but 60 meters" will also be ended because of crowding and complaints when CW signals are heard. Truly, the distinction between CB and ham radio will be muddied.

My predictions probably need 15 years, though, not three.

[KI4PEQ]

In the next ten years, there will still be written tests. The classes of licenses will be reduced to General and Amateur Extra. CW will still be used, but there will no longer be a reserved portion of spectrum. Licencee number will remain stable. Digital data and digital phone will flourish.

[wd0ct]

I guarantee that in three years more old farts will be dead.

I further guarantee that in three years we will still be paying taxes.

[N5FOG]

Quote[/b] (KE5FRF @ Jan. 28 2007,18:38)][quote=al2i,Jan. 29 2007,13:26]Prediction 2: The real battles, with deliberate QRM, etc., will start after computer-operated CW starts chasing DX in the bottom of the bands. (I don't know how long it will take before this happens.)

Quote[/b] ]
First, before I make my own prediction, this one I just read from Dave has some potential insight into a likely future problem. I've already heard lots of Techs talking about computer operated CW. While I don't hold a grudge to someone operating computer CW, I do think some pile-up situations will be a bloody mess because they won't be able to HEAR what is going on with their speaker output tied to the computer, thus pure chaos. I'm not against computer CW in theory, but it is my hope that people make an attempt to learn it before operating it with computers.

OK
KE5FRF:
Prediction #1: The Technician license will soon become nearly nonexistent as far as active licensees goes, and the General license will become the most "populous". There will be active lobbying to do away with the Extra license by people who can't pass the test, which will be quite a lot.

Prediction #2: The phone band will be a sesspool. Not enough elbow room. Indeed, there will be lobbying and eventual action to reduce and nearly eliminate the CW and digital bands to accomodate. CW use on "any phone band but 60 meters" will also be ended because of crowding and complaints when CW signals are heard. Truly, the distinction between CB and ham radio will be muddied.

My predictions probably need 15 years, though, not three.


Why would I want a speaker plugged in, so I could here all that horrible annoying beeping? I'll just work that DX like the old timers do on the phone band.

I'm sure you all have seen it done. Its really easy just crank up the amp and keep hammering out your call sign covering up everyone else till the DX station finally gives in and answers you just so you will shut up so he can work the other guys.

I would have never thought of such a simple solution but after a couple of years of monitoring I realized those old extra class guys on 20 & 40 meters sure figured out a good system, wear them down till they answer you, simple yet effective.

After all isn't that all a pile is about, who can push the loudest and most noticeable signal so the DX station will answer them?


Eric KC5FOG

[wd0ct]

Quote[/b] (wd0ct @ Jan. 29 2007,18:13)]I guarantee that in three years more old farts will be dead.

I further guarantee that in three years we will still be paying taxes.
Since my predictions are guaranteed, I win and I want my prize now.

[NN4RH]

NN4RH - Basically, after the initial "blip", nothing will change. Specifically:

(a) No more than 10% of the existing Technicians will upgrade to General or Extra. The other 90% are either inactive and don't care, or are happy where they are.

(b) The total number of hams of all classes combined will continue its present trends; i.e., eliminating of the code test will not result in any significant change in the rate at which new people enter the hobby.

© The average age of hams will continue to increase at the present rate; i.e., eliminating the code test will not create any new attraction or incentive for young people.

(d) Hams newly licensed or upgraded from Technician after Feb 24, will be just as likely to violate rules as those already licensed as General or higher prior to Feb 24.

[KA4DPO]

I see darkness, only darkness and great doom. But wait, there may be hope. Call for your reading today.


Please call my 900 number for your complete amateur radio prediction. Our operators are standing by. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[kc7jty]

Quote[/b] (ab9lz @ Jan. 29 2007,13:04)]An ARS news headline several years from now will read, "Amateur Radio Operator KC7JTY fatally shot in a Kmart parking lot in an argument over his use of an echo mike equipped with a roger beep while telling dirty jokes on channel 157 (within the old 20 meter phone band)"
I often wondered where channel 157 was. A guy told me to meet him there but I didn't know where it was.
40-RODGER RODGER rodger

[kc7jty]

In 3 years:
Rise in OT ops seeking the services of charlatans to cleanse them for unwittingly making contacts with the no-codies.

[kf4vgx]

Quote ,
I am going to transcribe to a file and try to post it again on QRZ in 3 years.

http://www.adunar.com/images/deleted.jpg

[ab1ga]

No-coders show up on HF bands making all of the usual beginners mistakes. Many old timers sit on their usual nets, poking fun at the beginners. Newbies avoid the old timers like the plague, forming their own little groups.

OTs, remembering their own shaky beginnings as hams, begin to appear on newbie nets, lurking at first but then slowly and without condescension passing on their experience. Newbies at first non-committal, but some try the suggestions and find that most of them work. Newbies with expertise in their own technical specialties begin to share it with the OTs, who are at first non-committal but then try the suggestions and find that most of them work.

A few newbies twist the big knob and listen in the CW subbands, "just to see what it's like". Most stick with phone, but some find beauty and fulfillment with CW, and spend the next forty years mixing dits and dahs.

A few OTs hook up their computers to their rigs (or have their grandkids do it if they can't read all the fine print instructions) and try a digital mode "just to see what the fuss is all about". Most return to CW but some find beauty and fulfillment in the data modes, and will reach a typing speed of 80 words per minute.

The truth that "it's not where you come from, it's what you do when you get here" becomes widely accepted. Posts on QRZ evolve from the "flame wars" of the Internet culture to the "promotion of international goodwill" ethos mentioned in FCC Part 97.

Before it can happen, you have to imagine it happening...

[kf6rdn]

KF6RDN - In 3 years no noticeable difference ON AIR. (not to be confused with Internet forum squabbling)

[KA4DPO]

Quote[/b] (ab1ga @ Jan. 29 2007,21:48)]Before it can happen, you have to imagine it happening...
Nope, sorry, can't happen. I see only darkness in my crystal ball. Nice thought though, the magic 8 ball says try again..... http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[kc7jty]

Quote[/b] (ab1ga @ Jan. 29 2007,19:48)]some find beauty and fulfillment with CW, and spend the next forty years mixing dits and dahs.
God be praised!

I had a longtime friend who got saved of God and became very pushy with his religion. I'm a devout agnostic so the fur would occasionally fly between us.
He would sometimes almost apologize for getting all worked up then always say: "there is always that chance you will turn your life around".
He passed away from cancer a few years back...good to know he is now with the Lord.

[K5FH]

K5FH - in three years, more dumbing down of license testing, two license classes (Tech and General combined into General, Advanced and Extra combined into Extra), numbers of licensees stagnant or declining, ARRL membership steadily declining which leads to a financial crisis, W1AW stops transmitting CW bulletins and code practice runs.

[K7JBQ]

In three years:

Progagation will have improved sufficiently to allow the morsephobic generals and extras to actually make the odd contact on HF.

73,
Bill

[N2RJ]

In 20 years: OF's crying foul at young whipper snappers who jump for joy when the written test is finally removed.

OF: "What's happening to ham radio? BAck in 2006, you had to pass a hard multiple choice written test to become a ham, and you had to do THREE of them for a full license! Now it's just five questions multiple choice, and you get two tries... You people who don't want to do a written test are lazy and good for nothing! And people still can't pass it? That's it. I'm selling my equipment and getting off the air. Goodbye ham radio! The bands are going to turn into CB now!"

NTE (No Test Extra): "Ha ha you OF's. STFU and just go. Why aren't you giving me any respect? That nasty written test was just a barrier to keep us off the air. The hobby needs new young blood! Down with the written test!"

/No animals were harmed during the creation of this post.

Tongue FIRMLY planted in cheek.

[ai4ep]

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif what does S T F U mean ? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif

[K7JBQ]

I think you'll have to ask a NTE. We OFs don't have a FC what that means.

73,
Bill

[nz3m]

AB3BK In three years the "no-coders" will have realized to be a serious DXer, you have to know it. That is, of course, if DXing is their thing.

[KC2ESD]

KC2ESD- In Three years Ham Radio will be a popular as CB was in the 1970s. The only bad thing will be the bands being overcrowded in the General sections of HF.

Lets see who is correct in three years.

73 de Rick KC2ESD

BTW I will still have Red Hair in three years. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[K7JEM]

Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ Jan. 30 2007,16:39)]http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif what does S T F U mean ? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif
"Shut The Freak Up"

[N2RJ]

Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ Jan. 30 2007,18:39)]http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif what does S T F U mean ? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif
Shut the F--- Up.

[wb4old]

3 years less OF
6 much less OF
yeah http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[kc7jty]

Start The F*rter's Union

[ai4ep]

even some one who does as much listening as I, dont find as much negativity " on the air " as any one can read in 10 minutes or less here on the internet about amateur radio s future.

Dont believe me ?

Then you go listen to your radio the same amount of time you spend on the internet and then come back and tell us what you want the rest of us to know...your biased opinion, with very few facts....just be yourself. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

[kf4vgx]

Listen http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif.
What do you hear ?
" This frequency is taken" move to another etc.
http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif .


Bob, your next. Bob ? Bob ? static.
http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wow.gif .

The Daly/nightly broadcasters.


http://www.americansportscastersonline.com/images/limbaugh.jpg


We have talent scouts http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/wow.gif .

[kc7jty]

Quote[/b] (KC2ESD @ Jan. 30 2007,17:17)]KC2ESD- In Three years Ham Radio will be a popular as CB was in the 1970s. The only bad thing will be the bands being overcrowded in the General sections of HF.

Lets see who is correct in three years.

73 de Rick KC2ESD

BTW I will still have Red Hair in three years. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif
Why don't you upgrade to full blown hamster? All the CBers will be on the extra portions of the bands.

[w0wls]

WØWLS-After the new wears off it will be business as usual. #Those that like amateur radio will stick with it and those that get tired of the expense will give it up and go back to whatever hobby they had before radio.
As far as CW goes, I predict that the number of cw ops will stay about the same. #I figure that the FCC is done with major changes for at least another decade.

[KA4DPO]

Darkness, only darkness descending across the bands.

[AG3Y]

AG3Y - I predict that there will be no more of an effort or desire to follow the F.C.C. Rules & Regulations on the air, than there has been to follow Charlie's guidelines for filing these posts in this string. Just no sense of decorum at all ! Jim http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif

[ky5u]

As I said, like herding cats.

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (K7JBQ @ Jan. 30 2007,17:49)]In three years:

Progagation will have improved sufficiently to allow the morsephobic generals and extras to actually make the odd contact on HF.
I do that now. On 75m, 40m, etc.

I'm not following this logic. Please explain. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

(a "morsephobic" extra) http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (KA4DPO @ Jan. 30 2007,22:19)]Darkness, only darkness descending across the bands.
So when are you turning in your ticket? http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

And people say *I* have a pissy attitude....

[w5acv]

My own opinion is that 5 years there will be no testing. Just a fee.

[K7JBQ]

Quote[/b] (n3jja @ Feb. 01 2007,12:34)]Quote[/b] (K7JBQ @ Jan. 30 2007,17:49)]In three years:

Progagation will have improved sufficiently to allow the morsephobic generals and extras to actually make the odd contact on HF.
I do that now. On 75m, 40m, etc.

I'm not following this logic. Please explain. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

(a "morsephobic" extra) # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif
If so you're not morsephobic. Either that or you've gotten over it and operate CW anyway.

--... ...--,

Bill

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (K7JBQ @ Feb. 01 2007,14:52)]Quote[/b] (n3jja @ Feb. 01 2007,12:34)]Quote[/b] (K7JBQ @ Jan. 30 2007,17:49)]In three years:

Progagation will have improved sufficiently to allow the morsephobic generals and extras to actually make the odd contact on HF.
I do that now. On 75m, 40m, etc.

I'm not following this logic. Please explain. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

(a "morsephobic" extra) # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif # http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/laugh.gif
If so you're not morsephobic. Either that or you've gotten over it and operate CW anyway.
So, if I understand this correctly, you can currently only "make the odd contact on HF" using CW?

Really? #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif

So, what you're saying is that all those 75m, 40m, etc. phone contacts I've made to places all over this planet (in the last 9 months or so), are simply figments of my imagination? Thanks for clearing that up.

And, no, I don't operate CW. Not for 15 years anyway.

[K7JBQ]

jja,

Good for you. Point was, though, that the newbies will find HF phone tough sledding for a bit, until the sun starts spotting some, whereas on CW they'll find it much easier, at least those with low power and simple antennas.

Hey, I operate some phone too, but at the bottom of the cycle it's more hassle than it's worth.

73,
Bill

[kj3n]

Quote[/b] (K7JBQ @ Feb. 01 2007,17:59)]Point was, though, that the newbies will find HF phone tough sledding for a bit, until the sun starts spotting some, whereas on CW they'll find it much easier, at least those with low power and simple antennas.
I guess it all depends on your perspective in the first place, Bill.

With nothing more than simple wire antennas I have worked many stateside and DX contacts with 100 watts. True, I do have an amp at my disposal, but I try to not use it unless it's called for.

When I got to the present QTH in 2003, I had nothing more than a wire loop (265 feet, if memory serves) strung through the trees in the back yard. It was up a "mere" 35 feet at the time, but in less than 2 months I had racked up most of the continental U.S. on 75m and 40m. I didn't get an amp until about a year later. For most of the local QSOs on 75m, I never needed it. This same loop netted me Laos on 15m phone with 100 watts about 4 months after it had been up. A wire loop is almost as simple as it gets. Now, the loop is about 50 feet in the air, I've increased the length to about 365 feet, I still make local contacts (within 200-300 miles) on 75m with 100 watts, and I've had phone contacts on 40m, 20m, and 17m with and without an amp.

From my perspective, I don't see what you say I should see. If one were to believe you, if I'm not on CW, I'm not making any contacts if I'm on phone. That's simply not the case here. Sure, some days it's tough to make any contacts (phone, CW, digital, what have you) if the bands are in the crapper, but I've seen very few of those.

While I agree that CW overall may make contacts "easier", it's not the only thing that works. Phone (or any mode for that matter) works just fine as long as you have an efficient antenna. Fortunately, I have several; all of them wire.

Here's a hint, BTW, for those of you soon to be getting on HF: as Ryan has said, a G5RV @ 20 feet isn't efficient. It gets you on the air; that's it.

YMMV

[K7JBQ]

jja,

Good work. But while your antenna farm may be "simple," it's probably a bunch more effective than the average new guy will have up.

One thing I am waiting for though, is several hundred queries in "Q and A" pondering why the old watt meter isn't showing 100 watts on SSB, "even though I'm talking real loud." http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

73,
Bill

[ai4ep]

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif I remember back in the old CB days, folks would not like a TRUE watt meter that may be accurate, they wanted one to show all that " swing ", and splatter over the next few channels.

In amateur terms, I have talked just as far on 50 watts as when I used more ( 90 or even 95 ), using a g5rv antenna. FCC rules state " use the minimum amount of power for reliable communications ", not to splatter folks 3 kc away on 75 meters with your " eSSB signal ".

I HAVE been tempted to ask some folks " does it really take THAT much power to transmit a signal such a short distance ", but those kind of hams ( I wont grace them by saying the word AMATEUR ) already know everything, so I just listen to their ego go on & on & on & on....sigh, some conversations WILL lull you to sleep . http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[NN4RH]

Another prediction -

In the euphoria about the code test elimination, a lot of brand-new IC-7000s, FT-897s & FT-857s, and TS-480s will be sold over the next two months.

Then about a year from now, there will be a flood of practically unused IC-7000s, FT-897s & -857s, and TS-480s for sale on eBay.

[KI4PEQ]

Quote[/b] (NN4RH @ Feb. 04 2007,08:09)]Another prediction -

In the euphoria about the code test elimination, a lot of brand-new IC-7000s, FT-897s & FT-857s, and TS-480s will be sold over the next two months.

Then about a year from now, there will be a flood of practically unused IC-7000s, FT-897s & -857s, and TS-480s for sale on eBay.
And if that happens, I will be able to add to my shack's collection of radios cheaply, that is unless those newbies who decide to quit learn the trait of veteran amateurs of listing radios on eBay for $50 or more than the original cost. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[kn4ds]

Quote[/b] (KI4PEQ @ Feb. 04 2007,21:38)]And if that happens, I will be able to add to my shack's collection of radios cheaply, that is unless those newbies who decide to quit learn the trait of veteran amateurs of listing radios on eBay for $50 or more than the original cost. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
I guess you missed the part where HF transceivers actually appreciate in value, especially if they have problems like weak/dead finals due to abuse.

[N2RJ]

Quote[/b] (w5acv @ Feb. 01 2007,14:40)]My own opinion is that 5 years there will be no testing. Just a fee.
I'd give it 10 or 15. 20 tops.

It is more likely that in 5 years the written test will be dumbed down to regulations and safety only.

[kn4ds]

Quote[/b] (AB2MH @ Feb. 04 2007,23:07)]Quote[/b] (w5acv @ Feb. 01 2007,14:40)]My own opinion is that 5 years there will be no testing. Just a fee.
I'd give it 10 or 15. 20 tops.

It is more likely that in 5 years the written test will be dumbed down to regulations and safety only.
I think it's a given that people are going to cry about the technical questions, especially on the Extra exam.

I'm slogging my way through Gordon West's Extra book (c'mon, the General is just too easy)... currently, I score 80-85% on the QRZ practice tests... personally, I expect more of myself, so the studying continues.

Here's a sad fact... if you pick up just a *few* of the more technical concepts (phase angle of current vs voltage and which one leads depending on the circuit, for example), you can easily pass the Extra exam... enough of it is about rules/regs and operating practices that you really don't have to have all that much electrical/electronic knowledge.

That's how it is *today* and you can't expect the tests to get tougher or cover more electrical/electronic knowledge, because the hue and cry is going to be "but I just call up Yaesu, Kenwood or Icom and order a rig... I don't need to know all that stuff, because even if it does break, I'll just be sending it in for repair."

Personally, I had/have no interest in code, but I wasn't petitioning to have those requirements removed. That doesn't mean I won't take advantage of the changed rules.

At least for the medium term, I don't believe the sky is falling fears of some will come about. As testing becomes less and less of an obstacle, probably we'll see some less than optimal operators entering the hobby (just as we always have... I've not yet seen where testing is a real barrier to those who're determined to be morons on the air).

[w4lgh]

The initial numbers will increase sort of spike if you will. The ARRL will be touting how much it did for ham radio, and will be patting itself on the back. Then the number of active users will start to drop. This will happen fairly soon, as these new users, who didn't have to work as hard to get there new found privlidges, will become very bored with the whole thing and disappear. Being non-technical, all store bought plug-n-play, there won't be much to hold them to sitting in front of a radio and talking to people.

73 de W4LGH - Alan
http://www.w4lgh.com

[W5IEI]

W4GLH that's a real neat website.
That ERP calculator is cool!!!
Mike

[N5FOG]

Quote[/b] (w4lgh @ Feb. 04 2007,14:51)]The initial numbers will increase sort of spike if you will. The ARRL will be touting how much it did for ham radio, and will be patting itself on the back. Then the number of active users will start to drop. This will happen fairly soon, as these new users, who didn't have to work as hard to get there new found privlidges, will become very bored with the whole thing and disappear. Being non-technical, all store bought plug-n-play, there won't be much to hold them to sitting in front of a radio and talking to people.

73 de W4LGH - Alan
http://www.w4lgh.com
Alan I disagree. If you look at the statistics of people that let their license lapse, the majorities are no-code techs, very seldom does a general or extra let their license go and leave ham radio.

I think the reason for this is because the no-code guys quickly tired of VHF and UHF and realized HF is where the action is but due to the code barrier, they lost interest really quick.

I've recently talked to several guys I knew that got into ham radio with me back in high school who went inactive and when I asked them why they went inactive they all gave me the same answer they never could get the code down and felt very limited.

Well after I told them about the code going away they all had the same reaction, they were ecstatic and all four of them ordered HF rigs and we've all been taking turns going to each others QTH and putting up antennas (3 dipoles and one vertical)

I think we are going to see a BIG surge in the next 6 months. And I think maybe a few might drop out after a couple of years but I don’t think it will be anything like the last ten years due to most of the new guys getting hooked on HF.

Eric KC5FOG

[K7JBQ]

Quote[/b] (Kc5fog @ Feb. 05 2007,13:38)]Alan I disagree. If you look at the statistics of people that let their license lapse, the majorities are no-code techs, very seldom does a general or extra let their license go and leave ham radio.

I think the reason for this is because the no-code guys quickly tired of VHF and UHF and realized HF is where the action is but due to the code barrier, they lost interest really quick.
That is probably a lot of it, but I think a large number of no-code techs who let their license lapse were never really "hams" at all. They were attracted by no-cost mobile "phone calls" via autopatch at a time when mobile phones cost a bundle and so did air time.

When the latter got cheap, their "interest" in amateur radio went south.

73,
Bill

[w6dce]

Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ Jan. 29 2007,10:46)]Amateur radio #( as we know it today, January 29, 2007 ) will change dramaticially #for the worse within the next 3 years. Mostly for the bad, with an increase in LID operation, fragrant mis use of the basic rules and regulations, and consistent arguing / threats / action against another fellow licensed ham radio operator. #The few legimitate legal operators will be consistently harassed by the illegal operators, who are both licensed and non - licensed. The harassment will occur on most any frequency at most any time . No this wont be from " cb operators ", this will be from men and women whose sole INTENT is to agitate, harass and intimidate other operators. #They are out there already, some are already active in attempts to jam nets and what communications they can with basic radios-- later they can and will purchase amplifiers to stir up MORE animosity that the basic radio will not allow them to do.

The FCC will do little or nothing to stop / slow down this kind of operation, based entirely on their own actions of the past. Snails will be able to out run the FCC in its enforcement practices, for the individual employees just do not care, only willing to do the least amount of work / effort necessary to draw a weekly paycheck. They will act like typical U S GOVERNMENT employees . They have job security whether they actually DO any thing or not, so why put forth the effort to " clean up the airwaves " ?

All in all, the amateur radio train is on a track with no good ending for any one, now in the immediate or far future.
---------------------------------
now for the other side
---------------------------------
Amateur radio will be better than ever conceived by even the most informed optimist available.

Every one will get along greatly, few jammmers or agitators out there, every one eager to communicate by what ever legal means available with their fellow friends on the legal frequencies. New and used equipment sales will skyrocket, and quality from the manufacturers will be setting new standards in the manufacturing line standards...few ( if any ) pieces of equipment will break ( unless violently mis - used ) even past the normal warranty time. The use of the CW mode will skyrocket, since the requirement is gone, and folks will choose that mode over any other for basic personal communications. Even mobile use of CW will increase, despite the challenge of using it while driving a vehicle. #Folks willingly sell their cellular telephones to get in on a reliable means of communication while driving ( amateur radio ).

Folks willingly do not break the rules, even the most often broken ones. The FCC will not be needed for enforcement issues, as amateurs will enforce the rules to the letter without the need for the U S GOVERNMENT to intervene. #Comraderie will be at an all time high, with clubs having record high attendances, club meetings and activities will be nearly nightly, with coliseums and large halls being used for the gatherings. #Hamfests will occur for weeks at a time, several times per year, and almost in every county of every USA state.

The FCC will allow amateurs MORE frequencies to communicate on, shoving businesses aside in favor of the strong amateur movement. # CELLULAR companies, with their lousy record of " dropped calls " will lose some of their frequencies ( thanks to the FCC ) to the new group of amateurs who are here to stay.

Amateur radio is here to stay.
So I suppose the "warzone" is typical of a coded general/advanced operator? Cause I gotta tell you, my operation as an NCT is 1000% better than those idiots who passed the code test. But nobody wants to notice that eh?

[ki4rhh]

Im a going to go for the general the day code drops:) , I plan on still learning code but only because I want to. Im rather shocked at some of the opinions I see here, im glad the loacals around my area dont share the same ones.

I belive it will greatly help ham radio, I already have 7 personal friends who are tacking the test.

It will be up to the old timers to premote code and help it remain easy for anyone to learn. It is still one of the neatest parts of ham radio and will remain as long as the amature radio comunity premotes it.

I guess thats all I have to say

73s

[KB9LXP]

Sun spot numbers go up so 10 meters opens, and all n.c.t.s. will start there own language on 10 meters. qrp cw will be in, digital modes will be great using windows vista 3.3.3.3.3.3. The Government will reimburse hams for over priced equipment render usless with BPL. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif
Mike http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/cool.gif

[KC0OFZ]

Quote[/b] (w6dce @ Feb. 07 2007,15:52)]Quote[/b] (ai4ep @ Jan. 29 2007,10:46)]Amateur radio #( as we know it today, January 29, 2007 ) will change dramaticially #for the worse within the next 3 years. Mostly for the bad, with an increase in LID operation, fragrant mis use of the basic rules and regulations, and consistent arguing / threats / action against another fellow licensed ham radio operator. #The few legimitate legal operators will be consistently harassed by the illegal operators, who are both licensed and non - licensed. The harassment will occur on most any frequency at most any time . No this wont be from " cb operators ", this will be from men and women whose sole INTENT is to agitate, harass and intimidate other operators. #They are out there already, some are already active in attempts to jam nets and what communications they can with basic radios-- later they can and will purchase amplifiers to stir up MORE animosity that the basic radio will not allow them to do.

The FCC will do little or nothing to stop / slow down this kind of operation, based entirely on their own actions of the past. Snails will be able to out run the FCC in its enforcement practices, for the individual employees just do not care, only willing to do the least amount of work / effort necessary to draw a weekly paycheck. They will act like typical U S GOVERNMENT employees . They have job security whether they actually DO any thing or not, so why put forth the effort to " clean up the airwaves " ?

All in all, the amateur radio train is on a track with no good ending for any one, now in the immediate or far future.
---------------------------------
now for the other side
---------------------------------
Amateur radio will be better than ever conceived by even the most informed optimist available.

Every one will get along greatly, few jammmers or agitators out there, every one eager to communicate by what ever legal means available with their fellow friends on the legal frequencies. New and used equipment sales will skyrocket, and quality from the manufacturers will be setting new standards in the manufacturing line standards...few ( if any ) pieces of equipment will break ( unless violently mis - used ) even past the normal warranty time. The use of the CW mode will skyrocket, since the requirement is gone, and folks will choose that mode over any other for basic personal communications. Even mobile use of CW will increase, despite the challenge of using it while driving a vehicle. #Folks willingly sell their cellular telephones to get in on a reliable means of communication while driving ( amateur radio ).

Folks willingly do not break the rules, even the most often broken ones. The FCC will not be needed for enforcement issues, as amateurs will enforce the rules to the letter without the need for the U S GOVERNMENT to intervene. #Comraderie will be at an all time high, with clubs having record high attendances, club meetings and activities will be nearly nightly, with coliseums and large halls being used for the gatherings. #Hamfests will occur for weeks at a time, several times per year, and almost in every county of every USA state.

The FCC will allow amateurs MORE frequencies to communicate on, shoving businesses aside in favor of the strong amateur movement. # CELLULAR companies, with their lousy record of " dropped calls " will lose some of their frequencies ( thanks to the FCC ) to the new group of amateurs who are here to stay.

Amateur radio is here to stay.
So I suppose the "warzone" is typical of a coded general/advanced operator? # Cause I gotta tell you, my operation as an NCT is 1000% better than those idiots who passed the code test. #But nobody wants to notice that eh?
Oh but of course, it has to be the ones that know code who are the poor operators. #You and all of the anti-CW crowd will be the saviors of amateur radio. At least this is what we have been told all along. #http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/rock.gif