ARS License Numbers 4th Quarter 06

[K3UD]

Here is the analysis the numbers of individual FCC licensees covering the months of October, November and December 2006. I will post the numbers again at the end of December and at the end of every quarter from that point on.

Editorial:

It is rare when we see declines in the Extra Class but that is what happened in the 4th quarter of 2006. We also had a decline in the General Class. The Novice and Advanced are always declining because they are not tested for. On the other hand we saw a large increase in the Technician class during the quarter.

Since the FCC has dropped the code test requirement we would expect to see initial and likely ongoing gains in the Genera and Extra Classes. It could be that the bottom line number presented here (655,823) is about as low as it will get once the code is dropped. It will be interesting to see what the effect is.

Total active individual licenses as of May 14, 2000:
Novice - 49,329
Tech/+ - 334,254
General - 112,677
Advanced - 99,782
Extra - 78,750

Total all classes - 674,792

Total active individual licenses as of January 1, 2007:
Novice - 23,610 (-52.14%) (-25,719)
Tech/+ - 322,966 (-3.38%) (-11,288)
General - 131,160 (+16.40%) (+18,483)
Advanced - 69,891 (-30.00%) (-29,891)
Extra - 108,205 (+37.60%) (+29,455)

Total All Classes: 655,832 (-565 since the 3rd Quarter 2006 reporting period)

Total all classes (5/14/00) - 674,792
Total all Classes (4/21/03) - 687,860
Total all classes (9/6/04 ) - 674,788
Total all classes (10//1/06) - 655,832

Total loss of 18,960 since 5/14/2000 (Was 674,792)
Total loss of 18,956 since 9/6/2004 (Was 674,788)
Total Loss of 32,048 since 4/2003 (all time high of 687,860)

We lost:
683 Novice
704 General
866 Advanced
208 Extra
2,461 Total

We Gained:
1,896 Tech/+

- 565 Total

This is an overall 565 decline since the 3rd quarter reporting period
and averages 188 per month for the quarter.

Numbers of US population and the number of hams at the start of each decade from 1930.

Year Population # Hams Growth Rate
1930 123,202,624 19,000
1940 132,164,569 56,000 194%
1950 151,325,798 87,000 55%
1960 179,323,175 230,000 164%
1970 203,211,926 263,918 15%
1980 226,545,805 393,353 49%
1990 248,709,873 502,677 28%
2000 281,421,906 682,240 36%
2007 300,000,000 655,832 -3.9%

The 2006 number was as of December 31, 2006

Notes,
The base totals are from implementation of the then new licensing changes in May 2000. September 6, 2004 is the date I started measuring the changes. Over the two year period we are averaging a loss of about 9,195 licensees per year. The peak number was in April 2003.

73
George
K3UD

[wa3vjb]

George do your numbers exclude club calls ?

I think that question has come up in the past but I don't remember the answer, and how you addressed it.

I've posted your latest tally over on amfone.net, with attribution to here.

Just before the FCC enacted the expanded phone bands, the AM Community had a competion to turn out a bunch of new Extras (upgrades from lower classes) as part of the "Bandwarming Party" reported on these pages.

So, the drop in Extra licensees was mitigated by higher class AM operators, but not overcome.

Paul/VJB

[ke6irp]

Thanks for the update--- I find the numbers interesting---- now that the pesky CW requirement has been abolished we should see these numbers just skyrocket through the roof -----ha.......ha........ha ha ha hahahahahahaha...

[K3UD]

Paul,

It is my understanding that the numbers are for individual holders of licenses and exclude club calls.

I was a bit perplexed about the drop in the number of Extras as I have only seen this one other time
since September 2004. I was also surprised by the large increase of the NCT numbers.

I liked the idea of the Extra class incentive. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

Ke6irp:
You could be right as this is somewhat uncharted ground. We will begin to see the results in this quarter.

73
George
K3UD

[wa6itf]

George,

Thank you for your ongoing work in keeping all of us updated on licenseing stats. Your effortsis truly appreciated.

Ill makje sure cover some of it and put a pointer to your post in the next ARNewesline report.

de
Bill Pasternak, WA6ITF
ARNewsliune

[AE6IP]

If you are interested in tracking these numbers on a monthly basis, Joe Speroni, AH0A, has them on his web site (http://ah0a.org/FCC/Licenses.html), monthly for the last 9.5 years.

[K3UD]

Quote[/b] (wa6itf @ Jan. 07 2007,02:19)]George,

Thank you for your ongoing work in keeping all of us updated on licenseing stats. Your effortsis truly appreciated.

Ill makje sure cover some of it and put a pointer to your post in the next ARNewesline report.

de
Bill Pasternak, WA6ITF
ARNewsliune
Thanks Bill

George

[w7act]

the drop in both the Extra & Advanced categories doesn't surprise me as I am in the Senior Citizen Group and realize that a lot of my peers for the lack of a better word are dieing off around me.

I remember reading or hearing somewhere about the membership in group of WW II Radio Operators who had dropped off considerably as the membership was declining through through natural attrition of the members dieing off.

It's a fact of life we are all getting older and as time goes on we are all going to met that fate.

[N2MMM]

As the standard of living for all but the very wealhiest Americans has been in decline for some time now, All hobbies have seen declines in participation. I have noticed this decline in O-Gauge model trains as well.

[W2ILP]

Thanks for the information George,

I have used your data in the newsletter of the Grumman Amateur Radio Club and I will continue to do so.

Several reasons for the decline of membership in all clubs ..Masons, Mensans, Mesmerizers, Magicians and Musicians have been advanced by Francis Fukuyama in his book "The Great Disruption". #There is also a recent loss in Nationalism in the US that has made it more difficult to get young people to volunteer for military service. #Those who see Ham Radio as a voluntary "service" are not motivated to join our ranks. #The main reasons are cell phones, the Internet and video games which obviously compete for the money and time of today's wannabe techies.

w2ilp (Incentive License Proposal)...The more difficult licensing exams are... the more they will be a motivating challenge. #Making Ham licenses easier to obtain in my opinion is the wrong way to go.

[W9WHE]

So, why did the growth rate go from a positive 36% in 2000 to negative 3% in 2007??

CELLPHONES.
They are cheap, reliable, and technologically superior to ham radio in nearly every respect.