The price of a rig with CW gone?

[ac4ut]

Ok, heres and honest question. Will the price of used or even new equipment go up with new demand,go down because of perceived degradation of the bands or stay the same because it ain't no big deal.
I am thinking stay about the same with normal inflation,of course.

[n2ize]

Probably will stay the same.

[WB8MKV]

The price of keys and keyers will probably go down...look for some good prices at the swaps

[n2ize]

Let's remember, CW is NOT gone. Mauce code just ain't rekwired for testing.

I remember back when some of the ham rig manufacturers dropped the AM mode. Nowadays AM is found on most modern rigs. Likewise, CW will be found on most rigs for many years to come.

[K9STH]

Topic moved to the more appropriate forum.

Glen, K9STH
One of the QRZ.com moderators

[N8CPA]

I expect to see all band rigs without CW, in all price ranges. Any HF rig I buy will have it, though.

If it won't take a key, it's just a CB didahdidahdidah

[ky5u]

My guess is that prices will go up as vendors and used equipment sellers all take advantage of demand.

[K7JBQ]

My guess is that the price of rigs won't change much.

Amplifiers, though, could go through the roof, as the "new recruits" find 100 watt HF SSB a bit disappointing at the nadir of the sunspot cycle.

As for keys, I think the CW bands will be as active as ever -- if not more so.

73,
Bill

[N2RJ]

Quote[/b] (WB8MKV @ Dec. 19 2006,11:22)]The price of keys and keyers will probably go down...look for some good prices at the swaps
Only the price of code practice oscillators, tapes, CD's and software, not keys/keyers/bugs.

[W3MIV]

Quote[/b] (AG4YO @ Dec. 19 2006,12:46)]My guess is that prices will go up as vendors and used equipment sellers all take advantage of demand.
I agree. IF there is a big surge in demand. That, lieber Karl, is the $64K Frage: Will there be such a surge in demand?

I expect that any surge that hits will be ephemeral. Were Ol' Sol more subject to pox than he is at present, I could see a raft of newbies splashing and happily surfing the bands. But with current condx, I am not so sanguine of that rush of burgeoning ardor.

73

[kl7aj]

Quote[/b] (n2ize @ Dec. 19 2006,09:29)]Let's remember, CW is NOT gone. Mauce code just ain't rekwired for testing.

I remember back when some of the ham rig manufacturers dropped the AM mode. Nowadays AM is found on most modern rigs. Likewise, CW will be found on most rigs for many years to come.
Yep. Same thing with spark. Everyone said spark would go away, but me and my buddies use it all the time. I like spark because you don't need a receiver to receive it.

[k0cmh]

Good question, but I don't know.

However, if someone wants to offer me $900.00 for my IC-718, I'll take it.

[n0xas]

I'm betting the "surge" in demand will be in the range of a few hundred or maybe a few thousand new hams, and not enought to budge prices or even the types of rigs available in the foreseeable future. Just my opinion, which of course you know is worth next to nothing.

[N8CPA]

"I agree. IF there is a big surge in demand. That, lieber Karl, is the $64K Frage: Will there be such a surge in demand?"

Die Frage wir wissen! Was ist die Antwort??

[K0RGR]

I think there will be an increased market for HF rigs with SSB capability. Those Techs upgrading to General will be looking for gear, and they will buy up a lot of our backup rigs.

Woe be to the first manufacturer who mistakenly deletes CW from his radios.

There might be a slight increase in value for medium-powered , inexpensive CW only rigs that Techs could use on their new bands. It depends on how the CW priveleges are accepted. If this is a real success there might even be a market for a new such rig - are you listening, Ten Tec?

I think the market for used 2 meter gear is making that big flushing sound you're hearing right now. People will keep one around, but all the spares will go away. Maybe they'll get donated for ARES use.

[W3MIV]

Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Dec. 19 2006,13:20)]Was ist die Antwort??
Mindestens, mein Freund. Nur ein Paar.

[W3MIV]

Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Dec. 19 2006,12:43)]I expect to see all band rigs without CW, in all price ranges.
I don't understand your reasoning here. Eliminating CW capability in an SSB rig will not result in any substantial savings that I can see (certainly not like the reverse), and I would think the costs of development and production would far outweigh any perceived advantage.

I foresee a repeat of the "boon" that was anticipated at the time of "incentive licensing" now so long ago and far away. I think the manufacturers and retailers are both a lot smarter now.

[VE3LXL]

I don't think any manufacturers will drop CW from their HF rigs. The trend these days is in the opposite - towards all-mode, all-band rigs that include almost everything. This allows the manufacturer to maintain a smaller range of products while also getting to charge for the full suite of features. There would be no point in dropping CW from a rig - it would do almost nothing to lower the price, it would not sell to all those HF operators who think that they might even want to try CW sometime in the future, and it would require that the manufacturer maintain a second product line that does have CW. So there would be no sense in it - no-one is going to buy a rig for the features it lacks.

[KE5FRF]

Quote[/b] (W3MIV @ Dec. 19 2006,12:01)]I agree. IF there is a big surge in demand. That, lieber Karl, is the $64K Frage: Will there be such a surge in demand?

I expect that any surge that hits will be ephemeral. Were Ol' Sol more subject to pox than he is at present, I could see a raft of newbies splashing and happily surfing the bands. But with current condx, I am not so sanguine of that rush of burgeoning ardor.

73
A translation for the layman:

I expect that such a surge will be short-lived. If the sun spot cycle were not at the minimum, I could invision a swell of newbies playing on the bands. But with the current conditions, I'm not so certain of that level of new-found enthusiasm.


http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif

[N8CPA]

Quote[/b] (W3MIV @ Dec. 19 2006,13:52)]Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Dec. 19 2006,12:43)]I expect to see all band rigs without CW, in all price ranges.
I don't understand your reasoning here. Eliminating CW capability in an SSB rig will not result in any substantial savings that I can see (certainly not like the reverse), and I would think the costs of development and production would far outweigh any perceived advantage.

I foresee a repeat of the "boon" that was anticipated at the time of "incentive licensing" now so long ago and far away. I think the manufacturers and retailers are both a lot smarter now.
I don't see the advantage of such a design either. But there has already been such an amateur rig--the HTX-10, if I remember the model number. AM, FM, L/USB only. I expect to see more, probably from Alinco.

I only say Alinco because I have not forgotten an HT I had once. It's the only rig I ever threw away!

http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif

[ab8ro]

Quote[/b] (AB2MH @ Dec. 18 2006,11:01)]Quote[/b] (WB8MKV @ Dec. 19 2006,11:22)]The price of keys and keyers will probably go down...look for some good prices at the swaps
Only the price of code practice oscillators, tapes, CD's and software, not keys/keyers/bugs.
For the most part I agree. But, I suspect that the very cheapest keys that most don't want to use will experienced lowered demand. But the price is so cheap to begin with that I doubt anyone will notice.

But the learn-code industry is essentially dead.

[K7JBQ]

Quote[/b] (ab8ro @ Dec. 19 2006,12:01)]But the learn-code industry is essentially dead.
Truth be told, the "learn-code" industry as been dead since the removal of the 13 and 20wpm requirements.

But yes, the "learn the code, sort-of, just enough to pass the 5wpm test" industry is history.

But here's a prediction:

Code will enjoy a renaissance of interest now that it's now longer a requirement, at least for those who want to work some DX without amplifiers or serious antennas.

73,
Bill

[n0xas]

Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Dec. 19 2006,12:56)]I don't see the advantage of such a design either. But there has already been such an amateur rig--the HTX-10, if I remember the model number. AM, FM, L/USB only. I expect to see more, probably from Alinco.

I only say Alinco because I have not forgotten an HT I had once. It's the only rig I ever threw away!
Yah, but the HTX-10 was so poorly received they almost had to give the stupid things away toward the end.

You're right about Alinco, though. They're accustomed to building absolute junk, so it would be a natural for them. My one and only Alinco was also the only rig I never could get to work right for more than a day or two at a time.

I'm betting the net impact to the ham equipment market of dropping the CW testing requirement will be as close to zero as you'd care to measure. Maybe I'm wrong, everyone tells me it could happen some day. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif

[af2cw]

I believe there won't be that much, if any, increase in radio sales. Most of the folks that have been in the hobby for a while have already purchased their HF/VHF/UHF all mode radios. All that's left for them to do is buy an HF antenna and away they go. I would say build, but I don't think they're in the mood to experiment with antennas now that the cooler weather is upon us here in the northern states.

Quote[/b] (n0xas @ Dec. 19 2006,13:27)]Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Dec. 19 2006,12:56)]I don't see the advantage of such a design either. But there has already been such an amateur rig--the HTX-10, if I remember the model number. AM, FM, L/USB only. I expect to see more, probably from Alinco.

I only say Alinco because I have not forgotten an HT I had once. It's the only rig I ever threw away!
Yah, but the HTX-10 was so poorly received they almost had to give the stupid things away toward the end.

You're right about Alinco, though. They're accustomed to building absolute junk, so it would be a natural for them. My one and only Alinco was also the only rig I never could get to work right for more than a day or two at a time.

I'm betting the net impact to the ham equipment market of dropping the CW testing requirement will be as close to zero as you'd care to measure. Maybe I'm wrong, everyone tells me it could happen some day. http://www.qrz.com/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/smile.gif
Of course the HTX-10 was designed as a mobile rig, and not many folks run CW mobile anyway.

I have about 45 countries racked up on mine mobile, not a bad little rig for 10m only. It has been replaced with a FT-817 now, but it sits here destined to go to some local tech after the new law goes into effect.

I have never been a fan of Alinco's VHF/UHF gear, but my DX-70 is a good HF rig for the $$$$ and size.

[w8cbc]

I imagine demand for used, mid-range 100-watt HF xcvrs will spike - as someone else said above. The TS-440, IC-751A, and similar, will probably be hot items next year.

[AG3Y]

A rig with no CW capabilities? NEVER! With CW soundcard programs almost everywhere, ANY transmitter capable of sending SSB is also capable of sending CW. As a matter of fact, any sine-wave oscillator that can be rapidly turned on and off could be used to generate the keyed audio tone to create a CW signal in an SSB rig!

"Piece of cake" !

73, Jim

[kf6rdn]

I'd say mid range used radios will go up a little. New radios will stay the same, low and high end will stay the same.

[ka0gkt]

Quote[/b] (N8CPA @ Dec. 19 2006,09:43)]I expect to see all band rigs without CW, in all price ranges. #Any HF rig I buy will have it, though.

If it won't take a key, it's just a CB didahdidahdidah
When you look at all of the licensing entities in the world, by-in-large, it is N American and Eurpoean countries which have dropped the Morse Code requirement (which was lamented in another post for reciprocal licensing problems). Equipment manufacturers make their radios for sale all around the world. I doubt if the CW mode will disappear anytime soon.

73 DE KAØGKT/7

--Steve